iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18h

China’s borders are increasingly becoming prison walls. @safeguarddefenders.bsky.social found nearly 189,000 mentions of exit bans in published court judgments in 2025, up from just 89 in 2016. 1/4

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

What makes a company genuinely Canadian? In Reclaiming Canadian Sovereignty in a Ruptured World, @vassb.bsky.social argues that a Canadian address, workforce, or maple leaf in the branding is not enough. 1/3

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

For decades, Hong Kong was one of the few places on Chinese soil where the Tiananmen crackdown could be openly commemorated. Now three organizers of its annual vigils have received five- to seven-year prison terms for inciting subversion under the national security law. 1/2

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The deeper problem comes when a leader’s status becomes interwoven with the regime itself. Personalist systems can isolate the autocrat, suppress bad news and centralize decisions. A setback abroad then risks looking like weakness at home, making compromise harder. 5/8

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

That makes summits more than policy meetings. Protocol, praise and pageantry matter because they accord status. The essay argues that these performances can flatter leaders, reinforce national narratives and shape how each side reads the encounter. 4/8

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Trump and Xi pursue recognition differently. Trump seeks visible personal deference and public wins. Xi puts more weight on face and on respect for China as a whole. In the essay’s shorthand, Trump must win visibly while Xi must not lose face. 3/8

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Thymos, as @frankfukuyama.bsky.social articulates it, is the desire for recognition of dignity. He distinguishes between recognition as an equal and recognition as superior. The essay focuses on the second kind, especially when a leader ties his own status to the status of the nation. 2/8

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

My new essay in @thediplomat.com proposes a complement to the Thucydides Trap. I call it the Thymos Trap, the danger that a leader’s hunger for recognition can create hidden political fragility. 1/8

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

What could change the trajectory? Spain’s China policy is more personalist and less institutionalized than its newish “permanent strategic dialogue mechanism” suggests. 6/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Madrid has a stated strategy—strategic autonomy + engagement as leverage—and a revealed one: maximize national benefit from China while others carry the risk. On four years of evidence, the revealed strategy is reality; the stated one is an illusion. 5/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Spain is not being coerced. In IR terms, Pedro Sánchez’s government is bandwagoning for profit while free-riding: aligning with a rising power to share the spoils, while counting on NATO’s deterrent and the EU single market to absorb the systemic cost. 4/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Each individual Spanish step has seemed defensible. The cumulative effect is that Spain now supplies China with legitimacy, discourse wins, a tariff-circumvention beachhead and a technological soft underbelly on NATO’s southern flank. 2/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Spain has converted itself, over four years and four PM visits, from a hedging middle power into the closest thing Beijing has to a model relationship inside the EU. 1/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Five years after my release from wrongful detention in China, Trump’s been hosting Xi, Huawei’s on trial, Washington’s pressuring Ottawa, and Xi keeps disappearing other countries’ citizens. The geopolitical tensions of the Meng-Michaels crisis are still with us. 1/2

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

@margaretatwood.bsky.social poses a question Canadians should take seriously. Are we again taking an interest in ourselves? Her contribution to Reclaiming Canadian Sovereignty in a Ruptured World recalls how earlier generations built much of Canada’s cultural infrastructure from scratch. 1/4

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Carney can't make that case while describing January in Beijing only as a canola success. And the US won’t get a deal without reciprocity that respects Canadian sovereignty. 9/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The mechanism to fix it was designed in Washington, by bipartisan @cnas.bsky.social + @csis.org experts: coordinated tariffs facing outward, mutual exemptions within the continent, published criteria, each government deciding for itself. Ottawa once agreed to it. 8/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Here’s what almost nobody is saying: Canada never refused to align against China. Canada offered alignment — @chrystia-freeland.bsky.social in November 2024, Carney himself in May 2026, Doug Ford repeatedly. The concept’s been called “Fortress North America”. 6/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

So in January, Ottawa made a deal with Beijing: EV market access and tariff remissions, in exchange for agricultural relief. That concession to PRC coercion partly explains some American trade measures. 4/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

That omission is the most expensive thing Ottawa is currently doing. In October 2024, Canada voluntarily matched American tariffs on Chinese EVs, steel and aluminum. 2/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

@mark-carney.bsky.social has spoken to Canadians twice about the trade war with Trump. He used the word "China" once — to say an Alberta farm is getting better prices for its canola. 1/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Bizarrely, Trump reportedly asked Xi if China would like to buy US weapons; the State Dept then said there’s no plan to do so. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/27/u... 18/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

China’s new ethnic unity law, which Senate Democrats say “codifies the forced assimilation of Tibetans and Uyghurs,” reaches people abroad under Article 63, as noted on my Substack last month. 9/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Trump praised Xi without mentioning his appalling human rights record. Rep. Gregory Meeks pressed on China's over 2,700 political prisoners, and more than 3,000 Tibetans marched to the Capitol. 8/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

China’s wrongfully detaining two American citizens, Min Zin and Youlin Chen. Trump was expected to raise their cases. So far, no news of progress. Likewise with Jimmy Lai. US Senators introduced a resolution condemning PRC arbitrary detention of scholars. 6/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The two agreed to meet again at the Shenzhen APEC in November and the Miami G20 in December, incentivizing both to maintain stable relations in the meantime. 5/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The Trump-Xi encounters were mostly about pomp and prestige, and from the CCP’s perspective, the summit "met and far exceeded China's expectations." 3/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

What was this year’s second US-China leaders’ summit about? Here’s what I told CBC Radio’s “As it Happens”: The two great powers remain in a fragile strategic stalemate. 1/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Five years after my release from wrongful detention in China, Trump is hosting Xi, Huawei is on trial, and Beijing continues disappearing other countries’ citizens. The geopolitical tensions of the Meng-Michaels Affair are still with us. More in my latest article 👇🏻

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Carney can't make that case while describing January in Beijing only as a canola success. And the US won’t get a deal without reciprocity that respects Canadian sovereignty. 9/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

That omission is the most expensive thing Ottawa is currently doing. In October 2024, Canada voluntarily matched American tariffs on Chinese EVs, steel and aluminum. 2/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

@mark-carney.bsky.social has spoken to Canadians twice about the trade war with Trump. He used the word "China" once — to say an Alberta farm is getting better prices for its canola. 1/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Optics and language matter: warmth is read as validation, silence as capitulation. 8/15

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

That would leave the United States dangerously weakened in decisive years of its rivalry with China. In a @foreignaffairs.com essay, I’ve outlined a better path. 6/15

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

If Xi's visit this week results in US concessions on strategic interests such as Taiwan, America's Indo-Pacific presence and security guarantees, or restrictions on sharing advanced technology, that will send a message to China's chairman. 4/15

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Over time, such displays of deference can shift global perceptions of power and legitimacy. Coupled with incremental acquiescence on material matters, they risk tilting the correlation of geopolitical forces in China's favor. 3/15

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

By accepting Xi's terms of engagement and flattering his authoritarian statecraft, Trump is gratifying Xi's yearning (and his own) to be recognized as the world's foremost strongman. More in my new essay for @thediplomat.com, link below. 2/15

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

As Trump hosts Xi Jinping this week, he's prioritizing lavish ceremonies, grand atmospheric statements, and flashy short-term transactions. This approach hands the Chinese Communist Party a gorgeous propaganda bouquet. 1/15

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Trump used to slam China. Now he's rolling out the red carpet for Xi Jinping. 1/7

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

As Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Washington this week, my new essay in @thediplomat.com proposes a complement to the Thucydides Trap. I call it the Thymos Trap, the danger that a leader’s hunger for recognition can create hidden political fragility. 1/8

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Reclaiming Canadian Sovereignty in a Ruptured World, a new book edited by Bob Rae, includes Carol Off’s essay on how disinformation, declining trust, and foreign-owned platforms are eroding the shared understanding of facts that democracy requires. 1/3

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

With Canada-US relations in turmoil and a spiraling trade war, the Carney government is wise to diversify trading partners, but when it comes to China, cooperation should be limited to non-sensitive sectors where the risks of weaponized interdependence can be managed and mitigated. 1/5

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

An American citizen has been “lured to China by official government organizations and entrapped by Chinese security services,” the State Department says. So begins the tale of another wrongfully detained foreigner in China, Myanmar scholar Min Zin. 1/4

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