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Michael Kovrig

@kovrig.bsky.social
1.3K followers 420 following 1.2K posts

Senior Adviser, Asia @crisisgroup.org | Strategic narratives on China, Indo-Pacific, geopolitics, geoeconomics, philosophy and values. Ex-diplomat. Don't start none, won't be none. 实事求是。己所不欲,勿施於人 open.substack.com/pub/michaelkovrig

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 2h
@margaretatwood.bsky.social poses a question Canadians should take seriously. Are we again taking an interest in ourselves? Her contribution to Reclaiming Canadian Sovereignty in a Ruptured World recalls how earlier generations built much of Canada’s cultural infrastructure from scratch. 1/4
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Five years after my release from wrongful detention in China, Trump is hosting Xi, Huawei is on trial, and Beijing continues disappearing other countries’ citizens. The geopolitical tensions of the Meng-Michaels Affair are still with us. More in my latest article 👇🏻
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Bankrupt - The Plane To Toronto (Lyric Video, 2021)
Michael Kovrig was our singer from '96 to '99. He's been arbitrarily detained in China for over 2 and a half years. We wrote this song to raise awareness of his situation. The more people stand up…
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
@mark-carney.bsky.social has spoken to Canadians twice about the trade war with Trump. He used the word "China" once — to say an Alberta farm is getting better prices for its canola. 1/12
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
What was this year’s second US-China leaders’ summit about? Here’s what I told CBC Radio’s “As it Happens”: The two great powers remain in a fragile strategic stalemate. 1/20
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Five years after my release from wrongful detention in China, Trump is hosting Xi, Huawei is on trial, and Beijing continues disappearing other countries’ citizens. The geopolitical tensions of the Meng-Michaels Affair are still with us. More in my latest article 👇🏻
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
@mark-carney.bsky.social has spoken to Canadians twice about the trade war with Trump. He used the word "China" once — to say an Alberta farm is getting better prices for its canola. 1/12
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
As Trump hosts Xi Jinping this week, he's prioritizing lavish ceremonies, grand atmospheric statements, and flashy short-term transactions. This approach hands the Chinese Communist Party a gorgeous propaganda bouquet. 1/15
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Reposted by Michael Kovrig
Will Yale @wayale.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
It is extremely unfortunate and regrettable that the Department of the Air Force has decided to shutter the China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI). CASI, along with its sister institutions the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI), China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC), and…
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Trump used to slam China. Now he's rolling out the red carpet for Xi Jinping. 1/7
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
As Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Washington this week, my new essay in @thediplomat.com proposes a complement to the Thucydides Trap. I call it the Thymos Trap, the danger that a leader’s hunger for recognition can create hidden political fragility. 1/8
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Reclaiming Canadian Sovereignty in a Ruptured World, a new book edited by Bob Rae, includes Carol Off’s essay on how disinformation, declining trust, and foreign-owned platforms are eroding the shared understanding of facts that democracy requires. 1/3
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
With Canada-US relations in turmoil and a spiraling trade war, the Carney government is wise to diversify trading partners, but when it comes to China, cooperation should be limited to non-sensitive sectors where the risks of weaponized interdependence can be managed and mitigated. 1/5
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
An American citizen has been “lured to China by official government organizations and entrapped by Chinese security services,” the State Department says. So begins the tale of another wrongfully detained foreigner in China, Myanmar scholar Min Zin. 1/4
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Why are three Chinese state financial institutions at Canada’s investment summit this week? They’re hunting for passive stakes in permitted sectors and hoping for a whitelist to clarify options. CIC (中投) carries the wallet, CICC (中金) brokers the deals and the HKMA offers a channel for the money. 1/2
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Reclaiming Canadian Sovereignty in a Ruptured World, a new book edited by @BobRae48, brings together 30 Canadian writers with fresh ideas on national security, resilience, technology, and geopolitics in the face of unprecedented challenges. 1/3
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Reclaiming Canadian Sovereignty in a Ruptured World, a new book edited by Bob Rae, brings together 30 Canadian writers with fresh ideas on national security, resilience, technology, and geopolitics in the face of unprecedented challenges. 1/3
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
China’s grand strategy aims to tip the balance of power in its favour—say essays in the latest China Leadership Monitor. Beijing sees the “new cold war” as protracted conflict in phases shaped by the “correlation of forces” between China and US, explains Minxin Pei. 1/11
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Can Trump and Xi build a lasting understanding, or are we heading for another downturn in U.S.–China relations? I joined Pamela Wallin on the No Nonsense Podcast to discuss where the relationship is heading and what’s at stake. Full conversation on my Substack, Strategic Narratives. Link below.
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Pipes carry water. Cables carry electricity. Independent media and information ventures carry verified information that lets people make informed choices, communities find common ground, and democracies stay accountable. 1/7
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Allowing cheap Chinese electric vehicles to enter Canada may accelerate EV adoption, but don’t expect deeper industrial or economic benefits. China gets market access without helping Canada build anything. 1/6
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Think China’s geoeconomic dominance is inevitable? Think again. As @rhg.com's Logan Wright argues in a new @foreignaffairs.com essay, China’s broken economic model is forcing it to depend ever more on exporting a flood of manufactured products to the world. 1/10
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Australia once had a car industry—until industrial policy collapsed a decade ago. Now its open market is a proving ground for Chinese EV makers’ ultra-subsidized rivalry with Japanese and Korean brands and Tesla. Result: they're eating everyone else’s Vegemite sandwiches. 1/16
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Ford’s planned joint venture with Geely will place its established Valencia plant under shared ownership with a Chinese automaker. Ford will retain 66%, Geely 34%, and the first new models are scheduled to roll off the line in 2028. 1/5
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Beijing has now written transnational repression into law. Article 63 of China’s Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress claims authority over critics abroad and gives legal cover to coercion against Uyghur, Tibetan and other diaspora communities. 1/2
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Recommended viewing on the Second China Shock: an in-depth video discussion with @cfr.org's ace economist Brad Setser. What I found most compelling was host Markus Brunnermeier's introductory framework. 1/6
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
China’s electric-vehicle export surge reflects a political system that subsidizes overproduction and converts the resulting exports into strategic power. 1/8
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
For years after the CCP took me hostage, Ottawa struggled to manage crises when Beijing targeted Canadian exporters for coercion and leverage. Restoring leader-level dialogue under @mark-carney.bsky.social has helped rebuild communication channels, clarify intent, and manage risks of escalation. 1/5
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Slovenian cycling superstar Tadej Pogačar just won a fifth Tour de France. His and other star cyclists’ performances offer some metaphorical lessons for dealing with China – specifically how cyclists coordinate into pelotons to spare energy and reduce friction from the wind. 1/12
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
China’s auto exports are continuing to flood the world with no letup in sight. To understand this seismic shift, please join Wendy Cutler, Michael Dunne, Jorge Guajardo and me for an @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org online panel discussion today at 10:00 a.m. ET. 1/10
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
China’s auto exports are continuing to flood the world with no letup in sight. To understand this seismic shift, please join Wendy Cutler, Michael Dunne, Jorge Guajardo and me for an @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org online panel discussion on July 29, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. ET. 1/10
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Treating China as a solution to Canada’s problems with the United States would be a risky misreading of both the challenge and the opportunity facing Canada. 1/6
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The numbers are in — and they're damning. New @oecd-ocde.bsky.social data show industrial subsidies hit their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis — $108 billion across 15 major sectors in 2024 alone. But the headline figure buries the real story. 1/7
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Worth your time this week: Jonathan Czin’s essay in @foreignaffairs.com, “The False Promise of U.S.-China Stability.” 1/10
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
The Chinese Communist Party’s economic strategy is not free trade. It is aggressive mercantilism. Xi Jinping has been explicit about the goals: to seize the commanding heights of advanced technology and manufacturing, increase other countries’ dependence on China and minimize reliance on others. 1/6
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Like most Canadians, I don’t usually agree with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, nor do I care for his abrasive style. But on at least one issue, he’s right: Canada should not become a “drop-off port” for Chinese EVs entering North America. 1/8
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Hostage-taking by nation-states is a growing problem. Once the domain of terrorist and criminal organizations, it's now a tool wielded by Iran, Russia, China, North Korea and Venezuela to extract prisoner swaps, payments and sanctions relief. 1/10
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Canada’s auto industry ties with the U.S. are under pressure and Ottawa is looking for options. But moves toward China risk signaling unreliability in Washington and could trigger a stronger response across the broader economic relationship. 1/6
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Canada’s quota for Chinese electric vehicles is now in place. The question is no longer whether to allow them in, but how tightly to manage the risk. Very tightly, I’d argue, which is what I told the House of Commons Standing Committee on Industry and Technology. 1/8
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
The Trump-Xi summit in May was not a reset. It was a pause to reload. 1/7
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
The Tour de France just left Barcelona. Watch the pelotons — riders taking turns in the wind, drafting, protecting leaders. They’re game theory on wheels, the best metaphor I've found for the West's uncoordinated China diplomacy under Trump. 🧵1/4
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Radio host Mike Smyth asked why Canadians shouldn’t buy Chinese EVs. Because the hidden costs are high. The short-term price advantage is real. But the playbook is well documented: once domestic competitors are gone, the cheap prices go with them. 1/2
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Deeper economic entanglement with China is not the answer as the EVs-for-canola deal begins to move from policy into practice. As I told Parliament this week, this is not a long-term route to Canada’s goals. It’s a dead end. 1/5
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
China’s officials take advantage of leaders who are focused on short-term business deals while they play the long game. 1/3
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Canada’s EVs-for-canola deal is not a normal trade arrangement. It provides five years of EV market access in exchange for canola tariff relief, an asymmetric deal where China holds the leverage. 1/6
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
De Gaulle predicted "Europe will be united by the Chinese." Macron is trying to prove him right. A record EU-China deficit is gutting industry. Most leaders' visits to Xi are buck-passing, not hedging. At least Macron is balancing, and trying to bring Europeans with him. Will they rally or delay? 👇
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Canadian court documents reveal that China’s Ministry of Public Security targeted at least 25 Canadian residents through Fox Hunt and SkyNet. Beijing calls them anti-corruption operations. Rights advocates say they’re also tools of transnational repression. 1/4
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Canada’s EV policy is developing a coherence problem. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly is in China this week meeting EV makers BYD, Chery, and Geely to discuss building vehicles in Canada. 1/8
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
For years, Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy has quietly laid institutional foundations for more influence in Asia. But against such a vast geographic and economic region, measurable impact has been hard to discern. Until now. 1/6
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Wang Yi told visiting U.S. senators that Washington should “address mutual misperceptions,” “develop a rational perception of China,” (implying the current one is irrational) and “earnestly respect China’s core interests.” What’s a “rational perception”? Whatever the CCP tells you it is. 1/2
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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
In a Global News interview, I warned that as global crises unfold, more leaders are turning to Beijing, reinforcing a dangerous strategic trend. They are playing into China’s narrative as the rising, stable power while accommodating its preferences. Watch here:
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China’s push to reshape the world order is getting a boost from the Iran war
The war in Iran is playing into China’s long-term vision of a new world order with the country securing a stable supply of discounted energy after the U.S. extended the waiver on Russian oil…
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