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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18h

More analysis: www.strategicnarratives.org/p/hedgers-in... 11/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18h

www.bbc.com/news/article... 10/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18h

They will be remembered as the ones who still had a choice and lost Europe’s place in the world without noticing it was happening. Spain, right now, is where the noticing has to start. 9/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18h

The European leaders and officials who bequeath their successors a Europe whose strategic autonomy was quietly sold off will not be remembered as statesmen who managed a difficult relationship well. 8/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18h

An election due by May 2027, a corruption probe reaching a former PM, and a Brussels regulatory push all put the current posture in play. The window for allies to shape the outcome is open—for now. 7/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18h

What could change the trajectory? Spain’s China policy is more personalist and less institutionalized than its newish “permanent strategic dialogue mechanism” suggests. 6/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18h

Madrid has a stated strategy—strategic autonomy + engagement as leverage—and a revealed one: maximize national benefit from China while others carry the risk. On four years of evidence, the revealed strategy is reality; the stated one is an illusion. 5/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18h

Spain is not being coerced. In IR terms, Pedro Sánchez’s government is bandwagoning for profit while free-riding: aligning with a rising power to share the spoils, while counting on NATO’s deterrent and the EU single market to absorb the systemic cost. 4/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18h

In exchange, Spain receives token sectoral concessions and investment that relocates Chinese value chains rather than building Spanish ones. 3/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18h

Each individual Spanish step has seemed defensible. The cumulative effect is that Spain now supplies China with legitimacy, discourse wins, a tariff-circumvention beachhead and a technological soft underbelly on NATO’s southern flank. 2/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 18h

Spain has converted itself, over four years and four PM visits, from a hedging middle power into the closest thing Beijing has to a model relationship inside the EU. 1/11

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

More in my new piece: www.strategicnarratives.org 2/2

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Five years after my release from wrongful detention in China, Trump’s been hosting Xi, Huawei’s on trial, Washington’s pressuring Ottawa, and Xi keeps disappearing other countries’ citizens. The geopolitical tensions of the Meng-Michaels crisis are still with us. 1/2

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Culture helps a country recognize itself, remember its stories and imagine its future. That makes supporting Canadian creators a matter of sovereignty as much as cultural policy. 3/4

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Today, arts and culture contribute $65 billion to the economy, yet Canadian books accounted for only 12% of domestic print sales in 2024. 2/4

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

@margaretatwood.bsky.social poses a question Canadians should take seriously. Are we again taking an interest in ourselves? Her contribution to Reclaiming Canadian Sovereignty in a Ruptured World recalls how earlier generations built much of Canada’s cultural infrastructure from scratch. 1/4

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Five years after my release from wrongful detention in China, Trump is hosting Xi, Huawei is on trial, and Beijing continues disappearing other countries’ citizens. The geopolitical tensions of the Meng-Michaels Affair are still with us. More in my latest article 👇🏻

youtube.com

Bankrupt - The Plane To Toronto (Lyric Video, 2021)

Michael Kovrig was our singer from '96 to '99. He's been arbitrarily detained in China for over 2 and a half years. We wrote this song to raise awareness of his situation. The more people stand up…

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

My new op-ed in the Globe and Mail details that inconvenient truth--but also explains why acknowledging this reality strengthens Canada's case for why talks collapsed. 11/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Here's the reality: the trade war between Canada and the United States is as much about China as anything else. 10/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Carney can't make that case while describing January in Beijing only as a canola success. And the US won’t get a deal without reciprocity that respects Canadian sovereignty. 9/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The mechanism to fix it was designed in Washington, by bipartisan @cnas.bsky.social + @csis.org experts: coordinated tariffs facing outward, mutual exemptions within the continent, published criteria, each government deciding for itself. Ottawa once agreed to it. 8/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

But in August, US trade negotiators took the alignment and removed the reciprocity, deleting the most-favored-nation clause from their own draft. That's not a fortress. It's a wall with Canada outside it. 7/2

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Here’s what almost nobody is saying: Canada never refused to align against China. Canada offered alignment — @chrystia-freeland.bsky.social in November 2024, Carney himself in May 2026, Doug Ford repeatedly. The concept’s been called “Fortress North America”. 6/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Both clocks now run out together. The short-term part of China's tariff relief expires Dec. 31. Washington's 50% tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks, parts and steel bite Jan. 1. 5/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

So in January, Ottawa made a deal with Beijing: EV market access and tariff remissions, in exchange for agricultural relief. That concession to PRC coercion partly explains some American trade measures. 4/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Beijing retaliated against canola, peas and seafood. Washington offered no cover — and Trump tariffed Canadian autos and metals anyway. 3/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

That omission is the most expensive thing Ottawa is currently doing. In October 2024, Canada voluntarily matched American tariffs on Chinese EVs, steel and aluminum. 2/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

@mark-carney.bsky.social has spoken to Canadians twice about the trade war with Trump. He used the word "China" once — to say an Alberta farm is getting better prices for its canola. 1/12

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

More in the audio and transcript here: www.cbc.ca/radio/asitha... 20/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

www.strategicnarratives.org/p/geopolitic... 19/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Bizarrely, Trump reportedly asked Xi if China would like to buy US weapons; the State Dept then said there’s no plan to do so. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/27/u... 18/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Global Security: The two governments remain on opposite sides of the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. The two governments remain on opposite sides of the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. 17/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Taiwan: Trump has held back a planned $14 billion arms package since May, calling it “a very good negotiating chip”; if he approves it, Xi could choke critical raw material supplies. Expect no approval before the two heads of state meet again. 16/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

www.ft.com/content/d29d... 15/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Noise about Chinese carmakers entering the US market. Highly unlikely. Agreement on reciprocal tariff cuts covering $30 billion of “non-sensitive goods” and on an AI dialogue, with the next round in November. 14/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

www.strategicnarratives.org/p/china-shoc... 13/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

China still depends on advanced US semiconductors; the US depends on Chinese processing of rare earths. Expect more US export restrictions in the pipeline, in an effort to slow Chinese technological progress. 12/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Trade and Investment: A two-month extension of the trade truce. The Chinese wanted one until the end of Trump’s term. If the midterms go badly for him, the Chinese will raise their price for the next extension. 11/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

www.strategicnarratives.org/p/china-is-c... 10/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

China’s new ethnic unity law, which Senate Democrats say “codifies the forced assimilation of Tibetans and Uyghurs,” reaches people abroad under Article 63, as noted on my Substack last month. 9/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Trump praised Xi without mentioning his appalling human rights record. Rep. Gregory Meeks pressed on China's over 2,700 political prisoners, and more than 3,000 Tibetans marched to the Capitol. 8/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

www.strategicnarratives.org/p/hedgers-in... 7/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

China’s wrongfully detaining two American citizens, Min Zin and Youlin Chen. Trump was expected to raise their cases. So far, no news of progress. Likewise with Jimmy Lai. US Senators introduced a resolution condemning PRC arbitrary detention of scholars. 6/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The two agreed to meet again at the Shenzhen APEC in November and the Miami G20 in December, incentivizing both to maintain stable relations in the meantime. 5/20

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Michael Kovrig @kovrig.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

thediplomat.com/2026/09/trum... 4/20

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