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Koichi Osamura

@koichiosamura.bsky.social
173 followers 191 following 136 posts

👨🏻‍🔬 Research fellow in political science at @stawi-univie.bsky.social 👨🏻‍🎓 Dr in political science from @univie.ac.at 🕵🏻‍♂️ Coalitions, legislative behavior, party competition 🔎 South America, Europe, and Japan 🏠 osamura.org

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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Em Brasília, o Lula só foi maioria no Plano Piloto, e mesmo assim muitas zonas foram apertadas. Ceilândia, berço da Michelle, foi 100% Flávio, e em poucas zonas o Lula chegou a 40% dos votos.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
O @nexojornal.bsky.social fez uma excelente visualização espacial que ajuda a explicar como percepção de muitas pessoas, como na Zona do Sul do Rio, de que havia um mar vermelho de eleitores do Lula: eram realmente bolhas. t.co/niuXO98oPF
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Performance no sentido da espetacularização? Porque enquanto resultado ela já não existe mesmo, o bolsonarismo todo vem sem nunca ter produzido nada, mesmo que irrelevante. E vai se proliferando igual a mofo no teto do banheiro.
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Celso Rocha de Barros @npto.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Bora lá galera, boa sorte pra todo mundo que não for um fascista arrombado do caralho.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Thanks! I haven't uploaded it because some papers are under review. But one of the papers was published here: doi.org/10.1177/1354...
doi.org
Bureaucratic appointments and coalition support in presidential systems – An analysis of Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies - Koichi Osamura, 2026
How does the provision of political appointments influence coalition support in multiparty presidential systems? While the importance of cabinet portfolios for ...
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Thanks Dylan!
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Bem legal esse projeto! Você poderia também divulgá-lo em outras redes como o Reddit (no r/brasilia), acho que o alcance seria bom por lá.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Thank you, Tom!
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Thanks Semih!
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Thank you, David!
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Thank you, Katjana!
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Thank you, Thomas!
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I'm looking forward to the next steps in my career, and what comes next is still open. If you know of postdoctoral positions in coalition governance, presidential systems or adjacent topics, please let me know!
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I also thank my supervisors @thomasmmeyer.bsky.social and @laurenzennser.bsky.social for the amazing support during my program, as well as all my friends and colleagues at the @stawi-univie.bsky.social.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I want to thank the examiners Timothy Power and @thiagonsilva.bsky.social for the great discussion, as well @markuswagner.bsky.social for chairing the defense. I learned a lot from the debate and the process as a whole, and I'm excited to advance my research agenda.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I look at the payoffs they receive (published in Party Politics), the ideological differences within coalitions, and what happens to legislators who deviate from the party line.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The dissertation, titled "Seeking Office, Policy, or Votes? Legislative Coalitions, Motivations, and Behavior in Multiparty Presidential Systems", examines how coalition partners in South America support governments.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I'm very happy to announce that today I successfully defended my doctoral dissertation in political science at the @univie.ac.at
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Paul Ford @ftrain.com · 16/09/2026
hey I heard you like sankey diagrams that show huge populations making terrible decisions
A very complicated Sankey diagram showing the usage of electricity in the United States. Or the left are sources of energy and on the right are consumers, so, for example, nuclear is on the left and residential is on the right. Petroleum dominates.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I'm quite flattered: it looks like a recently appointed cohort of federal civil servants in Brazil has been using my paper on political appointments as part of the "Governance and Governability" module in their training curriculum. Thanks to whoever put it on the reading list!
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Institut für Staatswissenschaft / Department of Government @stawi-univie.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Upcoming Guest Talk! 🎤 We are happy to announce that Assoc. Prof. Miguel Pereira @miguelpereira.bsky.social will be holding a talk on Homeowners in Office and Housing Policy at our department on October 10th. staatswissenschaft.univie.ac.at/news-detaila...
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Rádio Escafandro @radioescafandro.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Atenção, escafandristas! O episódio 168 de Escafandro está no ar em todos os tocadores de áudio! Nele, a gente te convida pensar sobre sistemas de monitoramento e reconhecimento facial. As câmeras nos deixam mais seguros? Escute: open.spotify.com/episode/1NrF...
open.spotify.com
168: Sorria, você está sendo preso
Escafandro · Episode
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Peter Luca Versteegen @versteegenluca.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
🚨🚨 New publication: 🚨🚨 Does affective polarization (AP) change citizens’ willingness to support democratic norms or participate? 🧵1/10 Full paper here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Cool Citizens? How Affectively Unpolarized Citizens View and Participate in Democracy - Political Behavior
Does affective polarization change how citizens view and participate in democracy? We posit that the answer to this crucial question depends on how affectively unpolarized citizens view and participat...
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Isabella Rebasso @isabellareb.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
New paper with Yanna Krupnikov out in Political Communication! 🎉 We know moral-emotional content ("moral outrage") spreads fast on social media. But does that mean people actually want to see it? We tested whether people select this content when given the choice - turns out, not really.
tandfonline.com
Rethinking Assumptions About Moral Content Selection: Moral-Emotional Content May Be Less Appealing Than Assumed
Recent work has shown that moral-emotional content spreads rapidly on social media platforms such as X (Twitter). These patterns have led to concerns that social media facilitates the spread of mor...
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Christina Gahn @christinagahn.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
🥳 New Paper with @jadevrielink.bsky.social and @skruikemeier.bsky.social: on how voters perceive the political ads they receive, and why that tailoring perception matters more than we usually assume. 🧵 1/3 📄 doi.org/10.1080/1369...
Hand-drawn doodle illustration in three steps. On the left, a large smartphone with "VOTE for me" on the screen, surrounded by small icons such as animals and speech bubbles. An arrow points to a smiling person looking thoughtful, with thought bubbles above showing the same motifs (pets, music, people). Another arrow points to the same person, now beaming, holding up the smartphone with the "VOTE for me" ad and giving a thumbs up. The illustration shows how political advertising that feels personally relevant is evaluated more positively.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
In Brazil we often say that if garbage collectors go on strike for two days, the country stops; for one week, it's a full meltdown. The xenophobic discourse is fascinating for those who only see one centimeter ahead, but indeed, Japan would also collapse in days with all foreigners being expelled
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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Brilliant ad
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Robert Komaniecki @komaniecki.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
This utter muppet of a conservative Canadian politician in New Brunswick forgot to remove the LLM text from his floor speech and read it out loud.
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Isabella Rebasso @isabellareb.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Very belatedly sharing this because the last months were busy: The limits of appraisal theory for political emotions is out in Political Psychology! @gijsschumacher.bsky.social, @mrooduijn.bsky.social and I ask whether appraisal theories of emotion work the same way in politics as in everyday life.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The limits of appraisal theory for political emotions: Evidence from two U.S. surveys
Emotions, such as anger and anxiety, play a central role in political behavior and are extensively studied by political scientists. However, political science has largely adopted psychological theori...
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Sabine Döring @sabinedoering.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
„Forschung ist kein Selbstzweck. Forschung muss zu Wertschöpfung, Produktion und Innovation in Deutschland und in Europa führen“, so der @bundeskanzler. Die Wissenschaftsfreiheit, wie sie Art. 5 Abs. 3 GG und das Bundesverfassungsgericht verstehen, setzt einen anderen Maßstab. 🧵 1/n
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Institut für Staatswissenschaft / Department of Government @stawi-univie.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
How do school visits by politicians effect students' attitudes towards politicians and democracy? 🏫 A recent pre-post survey finds significant improvements in their image of politicians, internal/external efficacy, as well as knowledge and interest. 📈 Read the study recap:
staatswissenschaft.univie.ac.at
BLOG: The impact of school visits by politicians
Many people perceive politicians as an elite outgroup that is untrustworthy and extremely different from the ordinary citizen. To some extent, this even resembles a social group identity. Research has...
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Thanks Matthias!
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Trump has not ruined international football. FIFA has. For decades. Yes, the bluntness of Trump is mindblowing but this is FIFA business as usual. Not only in autocracies. Look at the massive corruption in how Germany became host of the 2006 World Cup. An event we still refer to as Sommermärchen.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Obrigado, Lucas! Também estou ansioso 😂
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
I find that lower-tier bureaucratic appointments (administrative posts, in charge of the daily operations) are strongly associated with higher coalition support for bills issued by the executive. I'm grateful to many colleagues for their feedback, and to the FWF for funding this research.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
I'm very happy to share that my first dissertation paper is now online in Party Politics (🔓)! I examine how political appointments (patronage) relate to coalition support in multiparty presidential systems, using roll-call data from Brazil's Chamber of Deputies (2003-2018). doi.org/10.1177/1354...
journals.sagepub.com
Bureaucratic appointments and coalition support in presidential systems – An analysis of Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies - Koichi Osamura, 2026
How does the provision of political appointments influence coalition support in multiparty presidential systems? While the importance of cabinet portfolios for ...
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Markus Wagner @markuswagner.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Now out: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Safely Endangered @safelyendangered.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
I'm drawing a daily doodle for July, feel free to drop suggestions. Here's day one: worryo
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Meanwhile, yesterday the Colombian president-elected Espriella was filmed throwing sieg heils to his supporters... Terrible times for South America
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
The last time Brazil had something minimally trying to be a socialist government was between 1961 and 1964. I think the US is more similar to Colombia, having right wing governments since ever and only having its first left-wing president with Petro from 2022. Maybe the US can finally have one.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Many thanks to @hannaeback.bsky.social for chairing the panel and for Orit Kedar for her valuable comments. And special thanks to the @univie.ac.at Doctoral School of Social Sciences and the @oegpw.bsky.social for making my attendance possible this year!
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
I had a great time attending and presenting my joint research at the inaugural conference of the @epssnet.bsky.social. It was amazing to see so many familiar faces and get to know many new people.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Already in Belfast for the @epssnet.bsky.social conference! Looking forward to presenting our paper on whether female ministers lose competencies more often during ministerial reforms. (with @thomasmmeyer.bsky.social, Ulrich Sieberer and David Schmuck) 19/06, 15:20, at Lisburn (Hilton) #EPSS2026
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
We also discussed the political implications of clinging to the past rather than modernizing. The podcast is now online, and if you understand Portuguese, give it a listen! It is also available on Spotify, YouTube Music, and other platforms.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Specifically, how a traditionally patriarchal and very conservative society like Japan's is facing the dilemma of allowing a female heir to become the first empress in centuries (the last one stepped down in 1771).
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
I had a great chat with Mara Tribuna from the Portuguese news outlet @jornalexpresso.bsky.social and their podcast O Mundo a Seus Pés. This was my third time on the podcast, and we talked about the succession line to the Japanese imperial throne.
expresso.pt
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Christina Gahn @christinagahn.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Excited to share our new paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @krausewe.bsky.social! Parties polling just below an electoral threshold are far less likely to clear it: a self-fulfilling prophecy that diminishes when polls communicate uncertainty. 🗳️📊 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
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Christina Gahn @christinagahn.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
This builds on our earlier work in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, where we showed that margins of error shape vote choices at the top of the race. Now we find the same is true at electoral thresholds. Polls & their communication matter throughout the ballot. 👇🏁 doi.org/10.1111/1475...
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.
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