Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Em Brasília, o Lula só foi maioria no Plano Piloto, e mesmo assim muitas zonas foram apertadas. Ceilândia, berço da Michelle, foi 100% Flávio, e em poucas zonas o Lula chegou a 40% dos votos. 010
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraFernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 05/10/2026O @nexojornal.bsky.social fez uma excelente visualização espacial que ajuda a explicar como percepção de muitas pessoas, como na Zona do Sul do Rio, de que havia um mar vermelho de eleitores do Lula: eram realmente bolhas. t.co/niuXO98oPF 112
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Performance no sentido da espetacularização? Porque enquanto resultado ela já não existe mesmo, o bolsonarismo todo vem sem nunca ter produzido nada, mesmo que irrelevante. E vai se proliferando igual a mofo no teto do banheiro. 101
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraCelso Rocha de Barros @npto.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Bora lá galera, boa sorte pra todo mundo que não for um fascista arrombado do caralho. 212086419
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Thanks! I haven't uploaded it because some papers are under review. But one of the papers was published here: doi.org/10.1177/1354...doi.orgBureaucratic appointments and coalition support in presidential systems – An analysis of Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies - Koichi Osamura, 2026How does the provision of political appointments influence coalition support in multiparty presidential systems? While the importance of cabinet portfolios for ... 000
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Bem legal esse projeto! Você poderia também divulgá-lo em outras redes como o Reddit (no r/brasilia), acho que o alcance seria bom por lá. 000
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026I'm looking forward to the next steps in my career, and what comes next is still open. If you know of postdoctoral positions in coalition governance, presidential systems or adjacent topics, please let me know! 020
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026I also thank my supervisors @thomasmmeyer.bsky.social and @laurenzennser.bsky.social for the amazing support during my program, as well as all my friends and colleagues at the @stawi-univie.bsky.social. 130
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026I want to thank the examiners Timothy Power and @thiagonsilva.bsky.social for the great discussion, as well @markuswagner.bsky.social for chairing the defense. I learned a lot from the debate and the process as a whole, and I'm excited to advance my research agenda. 130
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026I look at the payoffs they receive (published in Party Politics), the ideological differences within coalitions, and what happens to legislators who deviate from the party line. 120
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026The dissertation, titled "Seeking Office, Policy, or Votes? Legislative Coalitions, Motivations, and Behavior in Multiparty Presidential Systems", examines how coalition partners in South America support governments. 120
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/09/2026I'm very happy to announce that today I successfully defended my doctoral dissertation in political science at the @univie.ac.at 6462
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraPaul Ford @ftrain.com · 16/09/2026hey I heard you like sankey diagrams that show huge populations making terrible decisions 18418100
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 14/09/2026I'm quite flattered: it looks like a recently appointed cohort of federal civil servants in Brazil has been using my paper on political appointments as part of the "Governance and Governability" module in their training curriculum. Thanks to whoever put it on the reading list! 010
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraInstitut für Staatswissenschaft / Department of Government @stawi-univie.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Upcoming Guest Talk! 🎤 We are happy to announce that Assoc. Prof. Miguel Pereira @miguelpereira.bsky.social will be holding a talk on Homeowners in Office and Housing Policy at our department on October 10th. staatswissenschaft.univie.ac.at/news-detaila... 074
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraRádio Escafandro @radioescafandro.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Atenção, escafandristas! O episódio 168 de Escafandro está no ar em todos os tocadores de áudio! Nele, a gente te convida pensar sobre sistemas de monitoramento e reconhecimento facial. As câmeras nos deixam mais seguros? Escute: open.spotify.com/episode/1NrF...open.spotify.com168: Sorria, você está sendo presoEscafandro · Episode 0101
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraPeter Luca Versteegen @versteegenluca.bsky.social · 31/08/2026🚨🚨 New publication: 🚨🚨 Does affective polarization (AP) change citizens’ willingness to support democratic norms or participate? 🧵1/10 Full paper here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...link.springer.comCool Citizens? How Affectively Unpolarized Citizens View and Participate in Democracy - Political BehaviorDoes affective polarization change how citizens view and participate in democracy? We posit that the answer to this crucial question depends on how affectively unpolarized citizens view and participat... 34026
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraIsabella Rebasso @isabellareb.bsky.social · 28/08/2026New paper with Yanna Krupnikov out in Political Communication! 🎉 We know moral-emotional content ("moral outrage") spreads fast on social media. But does that mean people actually want to see it? We tested whether people select this content when given the choice - turns out, not really.tandfonline.comRethinking Assumptions About Moral Content Selection: Moral-Emotional Content May Be Less Appealing Than AssumedRecent work has shown that moral-emotional content spreads rapidly on social media platforms such as X (Twitter). These patterns have led to concerns that social media facilitates the spread of mor... 17641
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraChristina Gahn @christinagahn.bsky.social · 06/08/2026🥳 New Paper with @jadevrielink.bsky.social and @skruikemeier.bsky.social: on how voters perceive the political ads they receive, and why that tailoring perception matters more than we usually assume. 🧵 1/3 📄 doi.org/10.1080/1369... 22613
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 05/08/2026In Brazil we often say that if garbage collectors go on strike for two days, the country stops; for one week, it's a full meltdown. The xenophobic discourse is fascinating for those who only see one centimeter ahead, but indeed, Japan would also collapse in days with all foreigners being expelled 030
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraRobert Komaniecki @komaniecki.bsky.social · 24/07/2026This utter muppet of a conservative Canadian politician in New Brunswick forgot to remove the LLM text from his floor speech and read it out loud. 682759848
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraIsabella Rebasso @isabellareb.bsky.social · 15/07/2026Very belatedly sharing this because the last months were busy: The limits of appraisal theory for political emotions is out in Political Psychology! @gijsschumacher.bsky.social, @mrooduijn.bsky.social and I ask whether appraisal theories of emotion work the same way in politics as in everyday life.onlinelibrary.wiley.comThe limits of appraisal theory for political emotions: Evidence from two U.S. surveysEmotions, such as anger and anxiety, play a central role in political behavior and are extensively studied by political scientists. However, political science has largely adopted psychological theori... 35021
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraSabine Döring @sabinedoering.bsky.social · 10/07/2026„Forschung ist kein Selbstzweck. Forschung muss zu Wertschöpfung, Produktion und Innovation in Deutschland und in Europa führen“, so der @bundeskanzler. Die Wissenschaftsfreiheit, wie sie Art. 5 Abs. 3 GG und das Bundesverfassungsgericht verstehen, setzt einen anderen Maßstab. 🧵 1/n 1081238473
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraInstitut für Staatswissenschaft / Department of Government @stawi-univie.bsky.social · 08/07/2026How do school visits by politicians effect students' attitudes towards politicians and democracy? 🏫 A recent pre-post survey finds significant improvements in their image of politicians, internal/external efficacy, as well as knowledge and interest. 📈 Read the study recap:staatswissenschaft.univie.ac.atBLOG: The impact of school visits by politiciansMany people perceive politicians as an elite outgroup that is untrustworthy and extremely different from the ordinary citizen. To some extent, this even resembles a social group identity. Research has... 183
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraTarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 06/07/2026Trump has not ruined international football. FIFA has. For decades. Yes, the bluntness of Trump is mindblowing but this is FIFA business as usual. Not only in autocracies. Look at the massive corruption in how Germany became host of the 2006 World Cup. An event we still refer to as Sommermärchen. 515725
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 04/07/2026I find that lower-tier bureaucratic appointments (administrative posts, in charge of the daily operations) are strongly associated with higher coalition support for bills issued by the executive. I'm grateful to many colleagues for their feedback, and to the FWF for funding this research. 020
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 04/07/2026I'm very happy to share that my first dissertation paper is now online in Party Politics (🔓)! I examine how political appointments (patronage) relate to coalition support in multiparty presidential systems, using roll-call data from Brazil's Chamber of Deputies (2003-2018). doi.org/10.1177/1354...journals.sagepub.comBureaucratic appointments and coalition support in presidential systems – An analysis of Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies - Koichi Osamura, 2026How does the provision of political appointments influence coalition support in multiparty presidential systems? While the importance of cabinet portfolios for ... 35826
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraMarkus Wagner @markuswagner.bsky.social · 02/07/2026Now out: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...journals.sagepub.comSage Journals: Discover world-class researchSubscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher. 0206
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraSafely Endangered @safelyendangered.bsky.social · 01/07/2026I'm drawing a daily doodle for July, feel free to drop suggestions. Here's day one: worryo 725035
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 30/06/2026Meanwhile, yesterday the Colombian president-elected Espriella was filmed throwing sieg heils to his supporters... Terrible times for South America 073
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 22/06/2026The last time Brazil had something minimally trying to be a socialist government was between 1961 and 1964. I think the US is more similar to Colombia, having right wing governments since ever and only having its first left-wing president with Petro from 2022. Maybe the US can finally have one. 050
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 21/06/2026Many thanks to @hannaeback.bsky.social for chairing the panel and for Orit Kedar for her valuable comments. And special thanks to the @univie.ac.at Doctoral School of Social Sciences and the @oegpw.bsky.social for making my attendance possible this year! 000
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 21/06/2026I had a great time attending and presenting my joint research at the inaugural conference of the @epssnet.bsky.social. It was amazing to see so many familiar faces and get to know many new people. 1110
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 17/06/2026Already in Belfast for the @epssnet.bsky.social conference! Looking forward to presenting our paper on whether female ministers lose competencies more often during ministerial reforms. (with @thomasmmeyer.bsky.social, Ulrich Sieberer and David Schmuck) 19/06, 15:20, at Lisburn (Hilton) #EPSS2026 061
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 15/06/2026We also discussed the political implications of clinging to the past rather than modernizing. The podcast is now online, and if you understand Portuguese, give it a listen! It is also available on Spotify, YouTube Music, and other platforms. 010
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 15/06/2026Specifically, how a traditionally patriarchal and very conservative society like Japan's is facing the dilemma of allowing a female heir to become the first empress in centuries (the last one stepped down in 1771). 100
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 15/06/2026I had a great chat with Mara Tribuna from the Portuguese news outlet @jornalexpresso.bsky.social and their podcast O Mundo a Seus Pés. This was my third time on the podcast, and we talked about the succession line to the Japanese imperial throne.expresso.pt 110
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraChristina Gahn @christinagahn.bsky.social · 09/06/2026Excited to share our new paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @krausewe.bsky.social! Parties polling just below an electoral threshold are far less likely to clear it: a self-fulfilling prophecy that diminishes when polls communicate uncertainty. 🗳️📊 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... 57018
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraChristina Gahn @christinagahn.bsky.social · 09/06/2026This builds on our earlier work in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, where we showed that margins of error shape vote choices at the top of the race. Now we find the same is true at electoral thresholds. Polls & their communication matter throughout the ballot. 👇🏁 doi.org/10.1111/1475... 092
Reposted by Koichi OsamuraWerner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... 320899