Sign in

Kirill Shamiev

@kirland.bsky.social
1.7K followers 344 following 25 posts

Civ-mil, public policy & RU politics. PhD in PoliSci. Fellow at @ECFR. Tweets in personal capacity only. Shamiev.org

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 09/07/2026
Reading @kirland.bsky.social's new book, "Imperfect Equilibrium," and enjoying the insights into how civilian leadership of Russian defense policy exhibits various defects but demonstrates an adaptability and durability that isn't always intuitive (to me anyway).
091
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 21/06/2026
here we go, with @kirland.bsky.social
1173
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
The Kennan Institute @kennaninstitute.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
⚫ A legal exit is not always an economic exit. @kirland.bsky.social examines how Russia turned corporate departures into a source of revenue, intelligence gathering, and economic control while building new commercial networks. Read: www.kennaninstitute.org/articles/to…
022
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 01/05/2026
For Kennan, @kirland.bsky.social wrote a sharp piece on how Russia has navigated the West's Ukraine sanctions. The "politico-economic lessons" of this "most ambitious exercise in economic coercion," he writes, are ultimately "disconcerting" (for the West). www.kennaninstitute.org/articles/to-...
0122
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
FEPS Europe @feps-europe.eu · 29/11/2025
📚Before the flagship #CalltoEurope conference in Denmark, read the latest policy briefs on #Digital and #Defence: 👉 feps-europe.eu/theme/peace-... @danielfiott.bsky.social @sipri.org @ecfr.eu @kirland.bsky.social @giorgosverdi.bsky.social
011
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 26/01/2026
Russian officials know that the West’s overreliance on Chinese rare earths is a strategic weakness. Europe’s appetite for rare earths gives Russia’s mineral diplomacy a wedge and is likely to test the bloc’s cohesion, writes @kirland.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social 🔗 bit.ly/3NOISPg
bit.ly
Ore and order: Russia’s rare-earth strategy for the Ukraine talks – European Council on Foreign Relations
If Europe reopens talks with Vladimir Putin, Moscow could turn Western dependence on Chinese rare earths into leverage. A new $9.2bn processing hub in Siberia w
041
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Hurst Publishers @hurstpublishers.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Now out: ‘Imperfect Equilibrium: Civil–Military Relations in Russian Defense Policymaking’ by @kirland.bsky.social! From New Perspectives on Eastern Europe & Eurasia series, editor: @benhnoble.bsky.social 'Insightful.' @michaelkofman.bsky.social 20% off w/code IMPERFECT20 👉 tinyurl.com/u7d7pnyb
Book cover for ‘Imperfect Equilibrium: Civil–Military Relations in Russian Defense Policymaking’ showing soldiers at target practice.
061
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Hurst Publishers @hurstpublishers.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
‘Imperfect Equilibrium: Civil–Military Relations in Russian Defense Policymaking’ by @kirland.bsky.social offers a new perspective: 'A deeply insightful and illuminating account . . from the end of the Cold War to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.' @michaelkofman.bsky.social tinyurl.com/u7d7pnyb
tinyurl.com
Imperfect Equilibrium | Hurst Publishers
Why has Russia’s military struggled to adapt to the challenges of contemporary warfare?
101
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
FEPS Europe @feps-europe.eu · 28/11/2025
🇪🇺🇩🇰 #CalltoEurope Denmark closed-door sessions “The future of EU Defence” with: 👉Giovanna Maletta @sipri.org 👉 @almutm.bsky.social @epc-official.bsky.social 👉 @danielfiott.bsky.social @vubrussel.bsky.social 👉 @kirland.bsky.social @ecfr.eu 👉 Uwe Optenhögel FEPS 👉 Lukas Hassebrauck FES Nordics
133
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 13/09/2025
Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners, write @kirland.bsky.social and Vasil Navumau @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social bit.ly/42jwgnI
bit.ly
Zapad against the West: How Europe should read the Russian-Belarusian military drills
Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners
133
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ECFR Rome @ecfrrome.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Se i negoziati tra 🇺🇸 e 🇷🇺 dovessero fallire, il ruolo di Lukashenko svanirebbe da un giorno all'altro, le sue concessioni andrebbero sprecate e la sua reputazione con Putin verrebbe danneggiata. 🖊️ @kirland.bsky.social & Vasil Navumau
buff.ly
Zapad against the West: How Europe should read the Russian-Belarusian military drills
Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners
001
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ECFR Berlin @ecfrberlin.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Belarussisch-russiche Militärdrills: Zapad 2025 ist nicht nur eine Machtdemonstration, sondern auch Lukaschenkos Versuch, eine Rolle in der europäischen Sicherheitsordnung zu spielen, schreiben @kirland.bsky.social und @vasil-navumau.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/zapa...
ecfr.eu
Zapad against the West: How Europe should read the Russian-Belarusian military drills
Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners
101
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 11/09/2025
Should US–Russia negotiations collapse, Lukashenko’s role would evaporate overnight, his concessions wasted and his standing with Putin damaged, write @kirland.bsky.social and Vasil Navumau bit.ly/42jwgnI
ecfr.eu
Zapad against the West: How Europe should read the Russian-Belarusian military drills
Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners
094
Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
As the full-scale invasion enters its final stage (even radical pro-war Russian groups are talking about an end), the Russian leadership is seeking ways to influence Western perceptions of the war and their calculations regarding the desired outcome. 1/4
142
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Meduza in English @meduza.io · 28/07/2025
The Huffman family thought Russia’s “shared values” visa would be their escape from U.S. “indoctrination.” But their plan hasn’t gone the way they hoped. meduza.io/en/feature/2...
meduza.io
‘Thrown to the wolves’ How a Texas man moved his family to Russia to escape ‘DEI’ — and ended up on the front lines in Ukraine — Meduza
In the last three years, the Kremlin has doubled down on portraying Russia as a bastion of “traditional values” — a narrative used to justify both the invasion of Ukraine and Vladimir…
8265
Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
Would you like to know why it has been so difficult for Putin's Russia to build a powerful military? @waterstones.bsky.social has launched a 25% discount on upcoming titles, including my book on Russian military development! 1/4 #WPreorder
160
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ECFR European Security @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
#Russia will likely try to keep the #Iranian regime weak and out of Western reach, hoping to exploit any deal for its own gains, @kadriliik.bsky.social‬ and @kirland.bsky.social‬ argue in their last commentary. Read it here ⬇️
ecfr.eu
Patience and pragmatism: Moscow’s view on the Israel-Iran-US war
Russia will likely try to keep the Iranian regime weak and out of Western reach, hoping to exploit any deal for its own gains.
032
Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
My MA & PhD uni is in the news again: “The repercussions of the American turmoil are being felt in places like Vienna. By mid-May, C.E.U. had recorded a 40 percent increase in applications from American students compared with last year.” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/08/u...
nytimes.com
Harvard’s Battle Is Familiar to a University the Right Forced into Exile
071
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 05/06/2025
Interesting debate on what defence spending adds to your economy on.ft.com/4jCLJFs How big is the economic dividend from extra defence spending?
on.ft.com
How big is the economic dividend from extra defence spending?
UK ministers argue that higher military budgets will spur innovation and lead to long-term productivity gains
2336
Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
Back from a long research trip to Russia. Insightful professional meetings, and more importantly, human contact and on-the-ground observations. First time back since autumn ‘22, surprisingly little has changed on the streets. My analysis re current RU and negotiations coming soon
2141
Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
What domestic constraints does Russia face in negotiating with Ukraine? Risa Brooks, Margarita Zavadskaya, and I explore this in our new piece on the military’s role in Russian politics. It draws on a unique survey experiment we designed for an academic study.
011
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 24/04/2025
Deploying a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine might seem like a step toward stability. However, without a comprehensive peace agreement and clear mandates, such a move could entangle Europe in a protracted conflict, writes @kirland.bsky.social @ecfrwidereurope.bsky.social
bit.ly
Why a Ukraine peacekeeping force could become a trap for Europe
The EU may need to deploy a peacekeeping force to Ukraine. However, without urgent regulatory changes, its member states are unprepared for the risks of direct confrontation with Russia
242
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Viktor Funk @vfunk.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
„Russland hat kein Vertrauen darin, dass ausländische Truppen zur Friedenssicherung eingesetzt werden. Ihre Stationierung wird als Gefahr gedeutet und ich würde auch erwarten, dass sie mit Raketen und Drohnen angegriffen werden“, erläuterte @kirland.bsky.social.
072
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Hurst Publishers @hurstpublishers.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
See our catalogue for more upcoming non-fiction➡️ tinyurl.com/k2bpzrct Featuring titles from @dankaszeta.bsky.social @kirland.bsky.social @kalathmika.bsky.social @fieryparticle.bsky.social @irgarner.bsky.social @paulclammer.bsky.social @shuja-jamal.bsky.social @marwecki.bsky.social and many more!
An image of the catalogue cover. This is taken from the cover of 'Orange Sky, Rising Water' and has the same orange background at the top, and a windmill that appears to be sinking into a blue sea. There is white and blue lettering that reads 'Hurst Publishers. Autumn/Winter 2025.' The Hurst logo is at the bottom lefthand corner of the page.
032
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 15/02/2025
Trump’s USAID freeze has put 90+ Russian pro-democracy groups and independent media at risk of closure. Europe cannot fully replace the lost funding, but it must step up with targeted support for the most influential organisations. @kirland.bsky.social 📝
buff.ly
Freeze and thaw: USAID withdrawal and the future of Russia’s pro-European civil society
Donald Trump has frozen USAID. This is bad news for civil society organisations in the Russian democratic community, but Europe has the chance to step up its soft power influence in the eastern…
04215
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 14/02/2025
Donald Trump has frozen USAID. This is bad news for civil society organisations in the Russian democratic community, but Europe has the chance to step up its soft power influence in the eastern neighbourhood, writes @kirland.bsky.social 👇
buff.ly
Freeze and thaw: USAID withdrawal and the future of Russia’s pro-European civil society
Donald Trump has frozen USAID. This is bad news for civil society organisations in the Russian democratic community, but Europe has the chance to step up its soft power influence in the eastern…
067
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Yeah folks, it doesn’t look good for us at ridl.io
1129
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Read this earlier this year and highly recommend that you do, too. Recounts the most quickly-forgotten-about episode of ethnic cleansing in recent memory.
0516
Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
USIP hosted an event with Belarusian, Russian, and Ukrainian youth as part of the Eastern European Youth Dialogue. This news made my Monday and I hope that such initiatives will continue.
030
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Mike Eckel @mikeeckel.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Putin gets a grand welcome by Tokayev et. al. as he arrives in Astana for an official visit.
111
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Pavel Lokshin @lokshin.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
So glad people in Lebanon can finally return to their villages. A side note from another region: According to the sociologist Volodymyr Paniotto, about a third of Ukrainians - more than 10 Million people - are internally displaced
362
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Lucy Gaynor @lucyjgaynor.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
🚨#ICC Prosecutor announces application for an arrest warrant for Senior General and Acting President of #Myanmar Min Aung Hlaing, Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services 🚨 Suspected responsibility for #CrimesAgainstHumanity for the deportation & persecution of #Rohingya from Aug - Dec 2017
195
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Ilya Lozovsky @ichbinilya.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
On the topic of last week's internet cable outages in the Baltic Sea, an interesting point by @katjabego.bsky.social for @meduza.io.
2114
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 23/11/2024
hard to exaggerate how nuts the engagement is on Bluesky compared to 𝕏. a vastly smaller user base (at least officially), but just look at these stats for one of the biggest newspapers on Earth. Musk has absolutely trashed the platform. folks, you are not locked in on 𝕏. not even a little.
20884071662
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
A very good piece on Russian state ideology that does in fact reflect existing reality ridl.io/etatism-base...
ridl.io
Statism Based on Love or Calculation – Riddle Russia
Ivan Fomin explores the dual configuration of Putin
0114
Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
So far the only people who look like they actually cared about RU missiles are RU-based strategic studies people and the pro-war community. Western media, experts and politicians swiftly discussed the technical aspects (range, type, etc) and moved on. Poor outcome for Moscow.
67614
Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
Russian president increased the payment for warfighters with serious injuries to 4 million RUB. Recently, the government set payments at 3 mln RUB (now 4) for severe injuries, 1 mln for moderate, and 100,000 for minor.
buff.ly
����� �������� �� 4 ��� ���. ������� ������� ������ ���, ���������� ������������
��������� �� �������� ����� �������� �� 4 ��� ������ �������������� ������� ���������� ���, ���������� ������� ��� ������, ������� ������� � ������������.
040
Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
I recently acted as an expert witness at the First-tier Tribunal (Immigration and Asylum Chamber) in London in an appeal against the Home Office's refusal to grant international protection to a Russian national. 1/5
141
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Nate Schenkkan @nateschenkkan.bsky.social · 24/09/2024
I know tens of thousands of words about a Russian soldier is something many people will refuse to read, but this is one of the best things I’ve ever read about Russia. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
The Deserter
He didn’t want to fight in Putin’s war — he just wanted to survive. But to make it back to his family and live in peace, he would have to run.
34812
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 26/02/2024
🎧 In this podcast, @kadriliik.bsky.social, Pavel Podvig and @kirland.bsky.social analyse who is really in charge of the Russian military and its nuclear weapons. The answer is far from simple. Listen to the podcast: buff.ly/48udryu
buff.ly
Under the Overcoat: Are we the baddies? Russian civil-military relations and the bomb
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we analyse who is really in charge of the Russian military and its nuclear weapons.
001
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Meduza in English @meduza.io · 22/01/2024
To understand what’s keeping the West from grabbing frozen Russian sovereign assets and what it will take for the confiscation to go ahead, The Naked Pravda spoke to journalist Alexander Kolyandr and welcomed back political risk advisor Maximilian Hess. meduza.io/en/episodes/...
meduza.io
Why hasn’t the West seized Russia’s frozen sovereign assets? — Meduza
The U.S. government is reportedly becoming more “assertive” about backing the confiscation of roughly $300 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets to provide an alternative funding stream for K...
072
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 07/12/2023
🎧New podcast mini-series! Our new podcast, “Under the Overcoat” will explore the deeper trends beneath the surface ofdaily politics. For a closer look at history, our host @kadriliik.bsky.social is joined by Ksenia Luchenko, @kirland.bsky.social & Mikhail Komin. ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
ecfr.eu
Under the Overcoat: the past is unpredictable
On 1 September, Russian high schools transitioned to new “patriotic” history textbooks authored by one of Russia’s staunchest conservatives, former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky.
103
Kirill Shamiev @kirland.bsky.social · 29/10/2023
Just returned from DC, where I chatted with Russia, natsec and civmil community. I am now researching the future of RU military reform, accounting for past policy/political challenges and OSINT sources. How can qual research legitimately integrate probabilities in the analysis? LFR sources!
120
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 29/10/2023
A 🧵 on trust and the Israeli war in Gaza. Last night Netanyahu tweeted this, following his first Q&A sessio since the war started. It denies being warned about the Hamas attack by intel agencies and *blames them* for saying Hamas was deterred and seeking settlement. 1/ CivMilSky polisky
A tweet by Benjamin Netanyahu. The tweet reads: “against false claims: at no point was the PM warned that Hamas was planning a war. On the contrary, every security agency including the heads of Military Intelligence and Shin Bet argued Hamas was deterred and headed for settlement. This was the assessment submitted time and again to the PM and cabinet by all security and intelligence agencies up to the outbreak of the war.” The tweet was later deleted.
57156
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Hager Ali @hagerali.bsky.social · 23/10/2023
CALL FOR PAPERS: I'm directing a workshop on Hybrid & Authoritarian Regimes at ECPR's Joint Sessions in March 2024! Deadline for abstracts is 14 November. Abstracts on civil-military relations & conflict studies in autocracies also welcome! Polisky Dictatorsky Comparativesky ecpr.eu/Events/Event...
ecpr.eu
Hybrid Regimes and Authoritarianism: The Surge, Survival, and Fall of Non-Democratic Governance
European Consortium for Political Research
01212
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
maria georgieva @mariageorgieva.bsky.social · 19/10/2023
Second American journalist detained in Russia, charged with failing to register as a foreign agent after going to Russia for family reasons. First – our friend and colleague Evan Gershkovich who is still behind bars www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/w... Alsu Kurmasheva holds dual US-Russian citizenship.
nytimes.com
Russia Detains a U.S. Journalist
Alsu Kurmasheva, who holds dual U.S.-Russian citizenship and works in Prague, was charged with failing to register as a foreign agent after going to Russia for family reasons.
0715
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
The New York Times @nytimes.com · 17/10/2023
A man who was wrongfully imprisoned for more than 16 years before being released in 2020 was fatally shot by a sheriff’s deputy in Georgia during a traffic stop on Monday, the authorities said. An official said he was pulled over for speeding.
nytimes.com
Man, Wrongfully Imprisoned for 16 Years, Is Fatally Shot During Traffic Stop
Leonard Allan Cure, who was exonerated in 2020 after being convicted of armed robbery, was shot and killed by a sheriff’s deputy in Georgia after being pulled over for speeding.
118452
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 13/10/2023
Israel calls for evacuation of 1mn people from northern Gaza on.ft.com/3POmS4u
on.ft.com
Israel calls for evacuation of 1mn people from northern Gaza
News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
4119