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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Ukraine is gaining an advantage over Russia as the war enters a new phase. ISW's @katstepanenko.bsky.social and @georgewbarros.bsky.social discussed their recent special report during The Brief with Jim Sciutto on CNN. Watch the full video: isw.pub/4e9ZcVy

youtu.be

CNN: Ukraine Holds Advantage over Russia in War | ISW's Kateryna Stepanenko and George Barros

YouTube video by Institute for the Study of War

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Russian advances in Pokrovsk resulted not from a sudden breakthrough but rather from months of dedicated battlefield shaping. Read more in the November 14, 2025, report by @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RussianBAIBST

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Kateryna Stepanenko @katstepanenko.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

The Kremlin will likely formally amend restrictions on mobilizing Russia’s active reserve to conduct rolling partial mobilization without declaring war on Ukraine or formally announcing that it is conducting a partial involuntary call up. A🧵on our latest with @georgewbarros.bsky.social

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

NEW: Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov outlined 10 priority objectives for the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) during the Russian MoD Collegium on August 29. 🧵(1/5) Read more:

isw.pub

Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, September 24, 2025

Russian Defense Minister Belousov outlined 10 priority objectives for the Russian MoD on August 29, per ISW.

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Kateryna Stepanenko @katstepanenko.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

The Kremlin launched an initiative to neurologically profile 10,000 Russian children to identify leaders and anti-leaders & improve patriotism among the Russian youth. This initiative is likely part of the Kremlin's cognitive warfare effort aimed at garnering support for Russia's war efforts.🧵

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

NEW: Russian Drone Innovations are Likely Achieving Effects of Battlefield Air Interdiction in Ukraine Read the Special Report by ISW Russia Analyst and Deputy Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/Russiandrone... Key Takeaways ⬇🧵(1/6)

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 18/07/2025

Russian and Ukrainian drones use cellphone internet networks to operate, so shutdowns are one way authorities try to counter the attacks, said @katstepanenko.bsky.social, a Russia analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

NEW: Russia is a key player in the cognitive warfare space and a model for China, Iran, and North Korea. Understanding cognitive warfare is a national security requirement for the United States. Read our primer by @nataliyabugayova.bsky.social & @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RUSCognitive...

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Kateryna Stepanenko @katstepanenko.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

It's the second anniversary of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny & the Kremlin is trying to prevent another mutiny by raising a veterans-based elite. Putin, however, may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to his regime stability by emboldening veterans.🧵

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Kateryna Stepanenko @katstepanenko.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

The Kremlin may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to Putin’s regime stability by emboldening veterans who may use their influence to advance their personal, financial, or political ambitions at the expense of the regime. A🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's latest Force Generation report.

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Kateryna Stepanenko @katstepanenko.bsky.social · 12/06/2025

The Kremlin is contradicting its ongoing centralization effort by reportedly delegating command of Africa Corps (which aimed to replace the Wagner Group) to a loyal Russian billionaire. A 🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social’s latest force generation & tech adaptations report.

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/06/2025

. @katstepanenko.bsky.social, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said the strikes show that “nowhere in Russia is safe,” and that Ukraine is “shaping a new type of warfare.” via @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/06/02/u...

nytimes.com

Ukraine Shows It Can Still Flip the Script on How Wars Are Waged

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

NEW: Russia and Ukraine are engaged in an active technological race to develop and deploy drones with artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities. Read @katstepanenko.bsky.social's report covering Russian and Ukrainian AI drone efforts: isw.pub/BattlefieldA... Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/5)

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 30/05/2025

NEW | Russian recruiters continue to offer Russian recruits low-quality and ineffective military training before deploying them to Ukraine. Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, May 30, 2025: isw.pub/ForceGen053025 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/9)

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to prioritize leveraging migrants to mitigate ongoing labor shortages, despite ongoing complaints from Russian ultranationalists advocating for the Kremlin to impose harsher restrictions on migrants. (🧵1/9) Read More: isw.pub/ForceGen052125

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

“Putin is continuing to conflate the negotiations needed to reach a cease-fire agreement with those needed to reach a peace settlement in order to drive confusion in the West and falsely paint Ukraine as intransigent,” @katstepanenko.bsky.social recently told @nypost.com nypost.com/2025/05/19/u...

nypost.com

Trump wraps up call with Russia’s Putin, says cease-fire talks to start ‘immediately’

The White House did not immediately issue a readout on the Trump-Putin call, which was due to be followed by a conversation between the US president and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

NEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense intensified recruitment efforts for the state-controlled Africa Corps starting in February 2025, likely in an effort to expand Russia’s military presence in Africa and raise an active reserve that the Kremlin can use in Ukraine. isw.pub/ForceGen051425 More ⏬

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

NEW | Hiding Russia’s Weakness: isw.pub/HidingRussia... The Kremlin is projecting the narrative of a powerful Russia and a powerful Russian President Vladimir Putin to conceal the real weaknesses and limitations of Russia's capabilities and distract from Russia's battlefield failures. 🧵(1/4)

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

NEW | Russian Force Generation & Technological Adaptations Update May 7, 2025: Russian federal subjects continue to use dynamic pricing for one-time enlistment bonuses to incentivize volunteer recruitment. 1/3 Full report: isw.pub/RussianForce...

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

@katstepanenko.bsky.social: “Part of it is a psychological and political campaign that the Kremlin is waging... trying to scare Ukrainian people into essentially accepting capitulation when the realities of the battlefield for Russia are far from Russia winning." www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/w...

nytimes.com

More American Air Defense Is on the Way to Help Ukraine (Gift Article)

A Patriot air-defense system is moving from Israel to Ukraine, and Western allies are discussing the logistics of getting Germany or Greece to send another.

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Christopher Solomon @chris-solomon.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

“Part of it is a psychological and political campaign that the Kremlin is waging, in which it’s trying to scare Ukrainian people into essentially accepting capitulation, when the realities of the battlefield for Russia are far from Russia actually winning.” - @katstepanenko.bsky.social

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Kateryna Stepanenko @katstepanenko.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

Putin is expediting the formation of a country-wide, veteran-based elite loyal to the regime and Russia's war efforts by lowering eligibility requirements for veterans to join local government service. A 🧵from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's new force generation & technical adaptations update.

understandingwar.org

Institute for the Study of War

Russian military recruitment officials are reportedly leveraging a new law extending the validity of conscription notices to detain military-aged men and meet Russia's record-high Spring 2025 conscrip...

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Kateryna Stepanenko @katstepanenko.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

The Kremlin falsely framed Ukraine's extension of martial law & continue mobilization through August as an effort to inhibit the peace process. The Kremlin, however, failed to acknowledge that Russia also has been intensifying its recruitment campaign to continue its war.🧵

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Kateryna Stepanenko @katstepanenko.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

Thrilled to share that @cnn.com cited my analysis on the news surrounding a popular Russian commander - Major General Ivan Popov - who attempted to weaponize his popularity & Russian information space to resist his removal from command in July 2023. www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/e... A quick 🧵on Popov:

cnn.com

Russian general ousted after criticizing military top brass to return to battle – in charge of notorious unit of ex-convicts | CNN

One of Russia’s most outspoken generals, sacked and detained after a withering attack on the Defense Ministry two years ago, is returning to the front, according to his lawyer.

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Kateryna Stepanenko @katstepanenko.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

Excited to announce that @thestudyofwar.bsky.social launched a new product line focusing on Russia's recruitment, technological adaptations, defense industrial base & force reconstitution. First "Russian Force Generation & Technological Adaptations" update: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

understandingwar.org

Institute for the Study of War

The Kremlin is using surge pricing for enlistment bonuses to recruit additional volunteers and attempt to sustain Russia's protracted war effort in Ukraine. Numerous Russian federal subjects dramatica...

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Kateryna Stepanenko @katstepanenko.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

Putin is likely afraid of having over 700,000 Russian veterans return to Russia in the event of demobilization out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return. Putin launched a deliberate campaign to suppress veteran civil societies.🧵

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

MORE: Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to the Zelensky-Trump meeting on March 3 by falsely framing Moscow and Washington DC as being aligned on settling Russia's war in Ukraine. (🧵1/7)

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

NEW: The Kremlin is falsely framing the US objectives of achieving peace in Ukraine as being aligned with Russia's stated objectives of destroying Ukraine as a sovereign state in the aftermath of the Feb 28 White House meeting between Zelensky and Trump. (🧵1/3)

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.🧵 (1/9)

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

NEW: Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire Because He is Afraid of His Veterans, by ISW Deputy Russia Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social Read the special report: isw.pub/AfghanSyndrome

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

NEW | Russia's Weakness Offers Leverage: The US can use the enormous challenges RUS will face in 2025 as leverage to secure critical concessions in ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing & even expanding military support to UKR. 1/8 Special Report: isw.pub/RussiaWeakness

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

George Barros @georgewbarros.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Russia has permanently expanded Russian military basing in Belarus since 2020. In maps: Russia's permanent military presence in Belarus in 2020 vs during Russia's invasion of Ukraine verses 2024.

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Kateryna Stepanenko @katstepanenko.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

The Russian use of drones and drone innovation may degrade over the coming months as a result of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) coordinated effort to establish the Unmanned Systems Forces within the Russian Armed Forces. A thread on my latest analysis: isw.pub/RussianDrone...

understandingwar.org

Institute for the Study of War

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) launched a coordinated effort in August 2024 to create a centralized separate branch for unmanned systems, likely to reorganize informal specialized drone detachm...

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

NEW: Russian Efforts to Centralize Drone Units May Degrade Russian Drone Operations Read the full analysis from @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RussianDrone...

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Kateryna Stepanenko @katstepanenko.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

The Russian military's recent controversial efforts to disband drone detachments may be a part of an ongoing Russian MoD effort to establish a heavily centralized, separate service branch for unmanned systems. This reorganization is already introducing some dysfunction into the Russian military. 1/

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

3/ " @katstepanenko.bsky.social a co-author of that report, told CNN the strategy was a revival of the Soviet concept of “reflexive control,” by which a state imposes a false set of choices on its adversary, forcing the adversary to make decisions against its interests." isw.pub/DenyingRussia032624

isw.pub

Institute for the Study of War

The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation, which gives us a glimpse of the Kremlin’s real strategy and only real hope of success. The Kreml...

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

George Barros @georgewbarros.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

Correct. Putin is extremely unlikely to use nuclear weapons. That said, there's an interesting reporting dynamic at play. Leakers were telling the NYT otherwise back in September. What changed?

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Alex Mitchell @amitchell4.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

" @katstepanenko.bsky.social told @cnn.com the [Kremlin] strategy was a revival of the Soviet concept of 'reflexive control,' by which a state imposes a false set of choices on its adversary, forcing the adversary to make decisions against its own interests. www.cnn.com/2024/11/28/e...

cnn.com

What the term ‘escalation’ gets wrong about Ukraine striking Russia | CNN

Over 1,000 days of war, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned Kyiv’s Western allies of dire – potentially nuclear – consequences if they “escalate” the war by giving Ukraine the weapo...

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Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

NEW: The Kremlin's recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy will likely face significant challenges in 2025 and that Russian President Vladimir Putin is worried about Russia's economic stability in the long term. isw.pub/UkrWar111424 🧵(1/5)

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