iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Karl Whelan

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

And Mark, I am not a radical person who posts on this particular political issue all the time. I never post about it. Check my feed. But I am Irish and a fan of our football team and I think your post was uninformed and offensive.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

A hard unfollow for this. Whatever you think about the right thing to do, the idea that Irish people upset about the game because they are outraged by what's happening in Gaza are supposed to consult some sort of whataboutery on previous games with Russia/China/Yugoslavia is frankly ridiculous.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Seems more and more journals are adopting these "40 pages of double-spaced text" rules for submissions? All while they completely ignore this rule with the papers they actually publish. Perhaps just another gate-keeping opportunity? Regular academics get told their papers are too long. Stars don't.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

I try not to comment on US politics anymore. But I lived in the DC area for six years and have so many positive memories of the Kennedy Center. This is just truly depressing.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Politico are shocked, shocked, to find out there is backroom political wrangling over filling senior ECB positions. Who coulda known?

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

A new podcast conversation on my book, Fine Margins, is now available. I joined Jeff Edelstein on the Business of Betting podcast to talk about the economics behind sports betting. Here it is on YouTube. Also available wherever you get your podcasts. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv-f...

youtube.com

E309 - Karl Whelan

YouTube video by Business of Betting Podcast

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

A few weeks ago, I got lambasted from the surprisingly-active betting industry community on LinkedIn for suggesting that bets on horse racing and golf lose a lot of money on average and are best avoided. A few words (and numbers) in response. finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/why-bets-w...

finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com

Why Bets With Big Fields Lose So Much

Like it or not folks, bets on horses or golfers to win a tournament are generally really bad bets.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Where do people get these ideas from? The NCBs buy bonds and make loans by issuing reserves. If bank deposits then get transferred to the core, this triggers T2 balance adjustments. This picture of NCBs "then borrowing" via T2 to fund activities has never been true yet people still believe it.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Anyone considered that AI can do a better job than Premier League VAR? Could hardly do worse.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Alternatively, they are all losing a fortune spending so much money trying to outpace each other and a cartel-style agreement to slow that level of spending could suit them all.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

The French guys have discovered tiering of reserves. All without any interventions from me. I am maintaining a watching brief.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

This is beginning to require some constraint on my part. Holding strong so far.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Yes, at UCD you can indeed study “a wide range of lesbian, bisexual, gay, trans, 2-spirit and queer theatre and performance .. [giving] special attention to the intersections of sexual identity and race, class, gender and nation”. www.independent.ie/comment/eoin...

independent.ie

Eoin O’Malley: Working in a university, I’ve seen how ideology has overtaken the pursuit of truth

The tens of thousands of students who received their CAO offer last Wednesday will be excited and apprehensive about the journey to university.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

I am pleased to announce that my book, Fine Margins: How Economics Explains Sports Betting, is now available to purchase. The book is available in two editions. The US edition here www.amazon.com/dp/B0GYS1QPPW The international edition is available here www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0HBR44RWB

lnkd.in

This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Not often your LinkedIn mentions get covered in the Sunday newspapers. From Aaron Rogan (author of Punters, an excellent book on Paddy Power) in the Sunday Business Post.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Between the Target2 wonk attempts and the French debate about cancelling the BdF's bond holdings, it's been a tough week to stick to my determination to never speak of central bank balance sheets again. One day perhaps the French may wake up and discuss tiering on reserves and I will maybe unretire

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

In light of the current outbreak of attempted Target2 wonkery, I offer one piece of advice. If anyone writes that the NCBs acquire bonds from anything other than money creating OMOs, you can stop reading right there. It won’t get better after that.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Excellent quotes here from Steve Cecchetti. Every year I explain to my students that bank capital is not money “held” or “set aside”. Every year there is a hard core one third of them that tell me the opposite in the final exam.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

As the excitement about US prediction markets continues to grow, there has been an intense war of words between the PMs and sportsbooks with each painting the others as the bad guys. My latest Substack post looks at claims and counter-claims. finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/prediction...

finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com

Prediction Markets vs Sportsbooks: Forget the Narratives and Focus on Price

Beyond the marketing claims and half-truths, what really matters is the odds you are offered.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

I see there are still people out there whining about TARGET2 balances. God bless em.

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Reposted by Karl Whelan

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Here's the AER editor trying to convince you how benign the use of AI is in the editorial process - "just a detailed technical proofreader." I've seen what AI does to students' behavior. Editors are no different. Once let it in the door, it will be asked to do all manner of stuff. e.g. desk rejects.

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Reposted by Karl Whelan

Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

I wonder if there is any precedent in the world of academic publishing for someone providing what initially looked like a convenient solution to a burdensome administrative task, and ending up with a bottleneck control which allowed them to charge a huge monopoly rent

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Top economics journals are going to use a specific AI tool to assess submissions "Editors may also offer authors Refine's technical comments at earlier stages of the refereeing process" So many ways this is an awful idea. And even basic economics tells you why. www.refine.ink/blog/economi...

refine.ink

Refine partners with the American Economic Association and the Econometric Society

Two leading publishers in economics now use Refine's AI-assisted technical verification as part of their publication processes.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

On my Substack. The Balanced Book Myth: Bookmakers do not balance their books The story the internet tells everyone about how bookmakers set odds is wrong. It's wrong in theory. Wrong in practice. And now we have lots of data to show it. finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/the-balanc...

finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com

The Balanced Book Myth

Bookmakers do not balance their books

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Reposted by Karl Whelan

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

It's driving me insane. The govt spends £1.4 trillion a year. Borrowing estimates are often by tens of billions over a year. But we're supposed to imagine money is budgeted to the last penny.

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Reposted by Karl Whelan

Declan Gaffney @greyskiesthinking.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

But also as @karlwhelan.bsky.social has pointed out it's just preposterous that this amount of spending has to be rhetorically 'matched' by a reduction elsewhere! This is back-of-the-sofa money for a UK government.

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Reposted by Karl Whelan

John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

This is equivalent to someone on the median salary in the UK explaining to their partner how they will cut other spending to buy something worth £14.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Christ almighty. The British obsession with itemized “pay fors” for everything is insane. This is just really not how fiscal policy or government works anywhere functional.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

An economics research/consumer report mashup. One of the simplest questions you can ask when viewing a bookmaker's odds is what their expected profit percentage is. Lots of internet sites offer to answer this for you. But most of them do it wrong finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/i-tested-g...

finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com

I Tested Google’s Top Sportsbook Hold Calculators.

Most Got It Wrong.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

My latest Substack post asks a practical question: Can you figure out the bookmaker's profit margin on a bet? It also provides links to spreadsheets that do these calculations for you. Many of the existing one that do this do it wrong. finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/how-to-cal...

finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com

Figuring Out the Bookmaker's Profit Margin

An explanation of an often misunderstood topic and two free calculators

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

On my Fine Margins Substack. Economics as the X-ray specs for seeing how sports betting really works. Cheesy analogy maybe but once it was in my head, I couldn't get it out, so it's in the book. finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/economics-...

finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com

Economics As the Way to Understand Sports Betting

Economics as the X-ray specs for seeing how sports betting really works

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

A free resource that some people might find interesting. As well as my research, my forthcoming book stems fram a course "Economics of Betting Markets" that I have taught in recent years at UCD. The lecture notes are now freely available at www.karlwhelan.com/bettingmarke...

karlwhelan.com

Economics of Sports Betting

How economics explains sports betting markets. This course presents theory to understand these markets and lots of new evidence on how they work in real life.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Hi BlueSkyers. An announcement. My book Fine Margins: How Economics Explains Sports Betting will be released soon. I have set up a Substack and will be posting articles and other resources relating to the book. Subscribe free at finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 05/07/2026

Not that anyone is asking me to but if I was a senior executive at a firm that generates revenues from the internet, I have would have someone come to work every day and try to order my product using every browser. Every day. Incredible how many sites only work on some browsers sometimes.

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Reposted by Karl Whelan

Dave Karpf @davekarpf.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Goddamn that's fire.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

This has been the perfect story to enable disingenous people engaging in motivated reasoning. And to expose journalists who can't or won't do their research. - Racists in England and the US pretending NI has huge numbers of immigrants when the truth is opposite. www.rte.ie/news/politic...

rte.ie

Common Travel Area in focus in wake of Belfast attack

The Taoiseach has said the Common Travel Area needs to be managed as people will "endeavour to abuse it".

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Reposted by Karl Whelan

The Author, Séamas O'Reilly @seamas.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Per most recent figures, net migration to NI *over the past 22 years* has been ~62,000 people. Only 3% of Northern Ireland’s population currently belong to an ethnic minority. Pogroms in Belfast (as with Ballymena last year) are just gutter-level "One Is One Too Many" racism, and nothing else.

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Reposted by Karl Whelan

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Table 4.19 from the same resource shows that only 3% of the NI's population were born outside Europe. And one in five of those are from the US, Canada and Australia. And this is the uncontrolled migration that has completely changed their communities. I guess they preferred it when it was 0%.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

I see unionists in Northern Ireland are working again to bring a hard border back to Ireland by claiming they are being inundated with asylum seekers who came through the Republic. The truth is that the vast majority of the flows are in the other direction. www.rte.ie/news/2025/09...

rte.ie

'Very close' to 88% of IP applicants crossing NI border

Minister for Justice Jim O'Callaghan has said that "very close" to 87.66% of people claiming international protection are crossing the border from Northern Ireland before claiming asylum here.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

I'm guessing working behind the scenes to make their hitters hit better is up there with asking forwards not to miss the target in soccer as a successful coaching strategy.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

BBC News disgracing itself on anything to do with immigration.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Usual objections about changing the character of the neighbourhood. But perhaps the character of neighbourhoods like this -- close to retail facilities, a park and public transport (despite claims of the opposite) but incredibly low density -- should be changed? www.irishtimes.com/business/202...

irishtimes.com

Cairn Homes secures permission for 250 new units in Blackrock

Appeal from local residents concerned over density of accommodation in the area was rejected

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

My latest working paper. www.ucd.ie/economics/t4... Multi-leg bets (known as parlays in the US, and as accumulators or bet builders in Europe) are hugely popular, accounting for a high percentage of all the money placed with bookmakers.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

I recently gave a talk on prediction markets at an NYU Stern online conference. Video is here www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIFd... I discussed my paper on Kalshi with Constantin Bürgi and Wanying Deng www.karlwhelan.com/Papers/Kalsh... and gave some "predictions about prediction markets"

youtube.com

2026 NYU Stern Fintech Conference: Karl Whelan on Prediction Markets

YouTube video by NYU Stern

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Every time I submit to an Elsevier journal, at least 10 minutes are wasted on passwords, including from journals I never had any dealings with claiming I have an account because they're hallucinating from other Elsevier journals. Then the endless forms with information they already know about me.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

I guess I was the only "expert" that told the Irish Times there was nothing here looked like money laundering. Publicly observable bets from crypto wallets that then get reversed back into the same wallets would be the world's least effective laundering scheme. www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...

irishtimes.com

Investigation: Suspicious betting on Gerry Hutch in Dublin Central byelection

More than $1m wagered through controversial Polymarket platform

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Somehow the internet decided I needed this product and emailed me ....Your 3-in-1 Shield Against Journal Desk Rejection. Ouch. I wonder could they figure out what "general interest" means so I could get a paper past the desk at the EJ and save the enormous fee! www.editage.com/services/des...

editage.com

Desk Rejection Shield - Pre-Submission Checks to Avoid Desk Rejections

We ensure your manuscript meets journal guidelines, our Desk Rejection Shield provides fast pre-submission checks including plagiarism report and formatting changes to deliver a journal-ready manuscri...

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

I'm thinking of getting a t-shirt that says Let me also view the truncated middle section

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