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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 13h

So it turns out a bigger increase than budgeted for actually works for the budget balance because there is additional tax revenue coming back that they (deliberately) haven't put in their budget figures.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 13h

I always wonder about this stuff whether - beyond the obvious negotiating position - the government starts with a low number for public sector pay talks because they know that the marginal tax rate on public sector pay increases is likely over 50% (maybe quite a bit over) www.rte.ie/news/ireland...

rte.ie

Chambers says €1.2bn is 'starting point' for pay talks

Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers has said the €1.2 billion for public sector pay talks announced in the Budget is the "starting point" for discussions, and the only way to develop that is...

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 22h

Dear journals with $600 submission fees (or should that be Dear dear journals?) Please describe this information in your "Information from Authors" blurb rather than 5 screens deep into the submission process.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Some day, I will just eventually accept Champions League referees, VAR assistants, commentators and studio pundits not understanding football's actual handball rule, rather than just "touched his hand innit?" I guess today is not that day.

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Reposted by Karl Whelan

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

And Mark, I am not a radical person who posts on this particular political issue all the time. I never post about it. Check my feed. But I am Irish and a fan of our football team and I think your post was uninformed and offensive.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

And Russia has been banned from international soccer since the invasion of Ukraine. Maybe this isn't just about one country and maybe you might ask yourself why you think it is?

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

This is the Irish government stopping them coming to Dublin for a game. Literally the government stopping the game happening. Which is not happening now. www.rte.ie/news/1999/06...

rte.ie

Ireland will not grant visas to Yugoslav team

The government has decided not to grant visas to the Yugoslav football team for Saturday's Euro 2000 qualifying match.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

And for what it's worth, there was a debate about Ireland playing Yugoslavia in 1998 e.g. this www.irishtimes.com/sport/wrong-... And the game went ahead, just like this one will.

irishtimes.com

Wrong for Ireland to play in Belgrade

It is regrettable to be among the last to say this but it is worth saying anyway

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

A hard unfollow for this. Whatever you think about the right thing to do, the idea that Irish people upset about the game because they are outraged by what's happening in Gaza are supposed to consult some sort of whataboutery on previous games with Russia/China/Yugoslavia is frankly ridiculous.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Seems more and more journals are adopting these "40 pages of double-spaced text" rules for submissions? All while they completely ignore this rule with the papers they actually publish. Perhaps just another gate-keeping opportunity? Regular academics get told their papers are too long. Stars don't.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

I try not to comment on US politics anymore. But I lived in the DC area for six years and have so many positive memories of the Kennedy Center. This is just truly depressing.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Politico are shocked, shocked, to find out there is backroom political wrangling over filling senior ECB positions. Who coulda known?

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

A new podcast conversation on my book, Fine Margins, is now available. I joined Jeff Edelstein on the Business of Betting podcast to talk about the economics behind sports betting. Here it is on YouTube. Also available wherever you get your podcasts. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv-f...

youtube.com

E309 - Karl Whelan

YouTube video by Business of Betting Podcast

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

A few weeks ago, I got lambasted from the surprisingly-active betting industry community on LinkedIn for suggesting that bets on horse racing and golf lose a lot of money on average and are best avoided. A few words (and numbers) in response. finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/why-bets-w...

finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com

Why Bets With Big Fields Lose So Much

Like it or not folks, bets on horses or golfers to win a tournament are generally really bad bets.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Where do people get these ideas from? The NCBs buy bonds and make loans by issuing reserves. If bank deposits then get transferred to the core, this triggers T2 balance adjustments. This picture of NCBs "then borrowing" via T2 to fund activities has never been true yet people still believe it.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Anyone considered that AI can do a better job than Premier League VAR? Could hardly do worse.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Alternatively, they are all losing a fortune spending so much money trying to outpace each other and a cartel-style agreement to slow that level of spending could suit them all.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

The French guys have discovered tiering of reserves. All without any interventions from me. I am maintaining a watching brief.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

This is beginning to require some constraint on my part. Holding strong so far.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

You can study it if you take DRAM30200 (an option module for Drama students). It's not like anyone has to take it. So what exactly is wrong with this? Should nobody be allowed to study this stuff? Should "intersections" between things be off the agenda because some people don't like a buzz word?

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Yes, at UCD you can indeed study “a wide range of lesbian, bisexual, gay, trans, 2-spirit and queer theatre and performance .. [giving] special attention to the intersections of sexual identity and race, class, gender and nation”. www.independent.ie/comment/eoin...

independent.ie

Eoin O’Malley: Working in a university, I’ve seen how ideology has overtaken the pursuit of truth

The tens of thousands of students who received their CAO offer last Wednesday will be excited and apprehensive about the journey to university.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

For a brief description of the book -- and who it might appeal to -- see finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/fine-margi...

finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com

Fine Margins: Available to Buy

The bit where I say please buy my book!

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

If you think about it, what was the likelihood that the book was "university professor's new system for winning lots of money from bookmakers"? For starters, if I had such a system, why would l write a book about it?

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

AK has not read the book. And his comment about “This whole book appears geared towards losing less and not actually winning. If you want to lose less maybe buy this book” is a pretty good summary of the book's evidence. So there may not really be much difference between me and AK on the substance

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

I am pleased to announce that my book, Fine Margins: How Economics Explains Sports Betting, is now available to purchase. The book is available in two editions. The US edition here www.amazon.com/dp/B0GYS1QPPW The international edition is available here www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0HBR44RWB

lnkd.in

This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Not often your LinkedIn mentions get covered in the Sunday newspapers. From Aaron Rogan (author of Punters, an excellent book on Paddy Power) in the Sunday Business Post.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Between the Target2 wonk attempts and the French debate about cancelling the BdF's bond holdings, it's been a tough week to stick to my determination to never speak of central bank balance sheets again. One day perhaps the French may wake up and discuss tiering on reserves and I will maybe unretire

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

In light of the current outbreak of attempted Target2 wonkery, I offer one piece of advice. If anyone writes that the NCBs acquire bonds from anything other than money creating OMOs, you can stop reading right there. It won’t get better after that.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Excellent quotes here from Steve Cecchetti. Every year I explain to my students that bank capital is not money “held” or “set aside”. Every year there is a hard core one third of them that tell me the opposite in the final exam.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

As the excitement about US prediction markets continues to grow, there has been an intense war of words between the PMs and sportsbooks with each painting the others as the bad guys. My latest Substack post looks at claims and counter-claims. finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/prediction...

finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com

Prediction Markets vs Sportsbooks: Forget the Narratives and Focus on Price

Beyond the marketing claims and half-truths, what really matters is the odds you are offered.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

I see there are still people out there whining about TARGET2 balances. God bless em.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

I am so sorry to hear that Danielle. Condolences to you and your family.

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Reposted by Karl Whelan

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Here's the AER editor trying to convince you how benign the use of AI is in the editorial process - "just a detailed technical proofreader." I've seen what AI does to students' behavior. Editors are no different. Once let it in the door, it will be asked to do all manner of stuff. e.g. desk rejects.

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Reposted by Karl Whelan

Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

I wonder if there is any precedent in the world of academic publishing for someone providing what initially looked like a convenient solution to a burdensome administrative task, and ending up with a bottleneck control which allowed them to charge a huge monopoly rent

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

All the models have weaknesses. And remember these are not commercial enterprises. I could see why Elsevier would do this. But non-profits like AEA and ES should not pressure their members to buy access to a specific proprietary AI technology that their journals use to evaluate their work.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

I don't blame @bengolub.bsky.social He has a business and wants it to be a success and I am sure it is a good product, within the limitations of what it is. But AEA and Econometric Society should not be doing this. Members should write to ask this decision to be reversed.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Note also the discretion involved here. You think star academics will get the Refine.Ink reviews. "Well actually Daron, Refine.Ink thinks your paper sucks"

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

And these tools are not perfect. I have used them. They have a tendency to jump down your throat and flag "fatal flaws" that come from their misreading or perhaps inartful wordings of what you are doing. You think editors will be checking whether these fatal flaws are real?

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Free for journals? Ok, but now everyone knows this specific AI tool will be a gatekeeper on your paper at top journals. All submitters will feel they have to run their paper through Refine -- giving it for now an extraordinary monopoly power.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Top economics journals are going to use a specific AI tool to assess submissions "Editors may also offer authors Refine's technical comments at earlier stages of the refereeing process" So many ways this is an awful idea. And even basic economics tells you why. www.refine.ink/blog/economi...

refine.ink

Refine partners with the American Economic Association and the Econometric Society

Two leading publishers in economics now use Refine's AI-assisted technical verification as part of their publication processes.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

On my Substack. The Balanced Book Myth: Bookmakers do not balance their books The story the internet tells everyone about how bookmakers set odds is wrong. It's wrong in theory. Wrong in practice. And now we have lots of data to show it. finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/the-balanc...

finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com

The Balanced Book Myth

Bookmakers do not balance their books

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

That’s a point. Not the point.

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