Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 08/09/2026You could imagine something similar in soccer, where you assess finishing ability by simulating counterfactual decisions a player could make when they're through on goal and comparing that to the decision ultimately taken. 001
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 08/09/2026This is great! I think the use of counterfactuals ("ghosts") is a really underexplored avenue innovation in sports analytics, and I'm glad to see it in action. 110
Reposted by Julian GerezIE Political Science Department @iepolisci.bsky.social · 16/06/2026We are hiring! We have 3 tenure track positions open: - Comparative Politics: apply.interfolio.com/188149 - International Relations: apply.interfolio.com/188150 - Political Economy: apply.interfolio.com/188151 All jobs have deadlines Oct 5th. Please help spread the word to potential candidates.apply.interfolio.com Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio 04436
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 15/06/2026Thinking about it more you might want to combine it with the area of the triangle but this could actually be weirdly predictive. I don't know what this tells us, but I refuse to believe it says nothing. 010
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 15/06/2026New advanced metric just dropped: take a team's first three shots and connect them to form a triangle. What is the average largest angle across all matches? Analytics has gone too long without asking this question, it's time for answers! 0141
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 11/06/2026Political science: The probability of being the decisive voter is effectively zero Second round of the 2026 Peruvian general election: 070
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 04/06/2026I was happy to present this at a work-in-progress workshop at @ucipopcenter.bsky.social, and the @ucisocialecology.bsky.social kindly wrote it up: socialecology.uci.edu/news/rigorou...socialecology.uci.eduRigorous scrutiny | School of Social EcologyLively debate shapes future of Julian Gerez’s California tobacco tax compliance study 030
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 04/06/2026Sharing ongoing work with @simonepaci.bsky.social: why is "vice" tax evasion stubbornly high? We argue the usual compliance mechanisms fail for vice taxes, and are currently running (we think) the first RCT of excise enforcement with the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration to test. 140
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 06/05/2026Back in NYC I used to live in Bergen Street. I love California a lot so far but deeply miss pedestrian-, bike-, and transit-oriented development. 030
Reposted by Julian GerezFilipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 29/11/2025Look, every single “deal” reached by a university with the Trump administration is a moral stain that will be seen with deep embarrassment once we’re through this. But for Northwestern to do this now, when the administration is visibly weakened, is even more shameful and inexcusable. 121245218
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 17/11/2025Causation does not imply variation www.grumpy-economist.com/p/causation-...grumpy-economist.comCausation Does not Imply VariationTyler Muir suggested this lovely catchphrase, which should stand next to “Correlation does not imply causation” in our menagerie of econometric sayings. 010
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 05/11/2025These are great—it would be cool to facet the plots so that they share the same y-axis, because I think these are even understating the shift (subject to turnout differences and ecological inference, etc.)! 000
Reposted by Julian Gerezeraldo.bsky.social @eraldo.bsky.social · 03/11/2025Next Monday! @ucisocialecology.bsky.social 061
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 01/11/2025And conditioning on those other characteristics isn't necessarily helpful (hence the DAG point), because many of those variables lie downstream of moderation in the causal process... 110
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 01/11/2025Put differently, none of this evidence can tell you what would happen if you could flip a switch and make a candidate moderate, all else equal. It only tells you the difference between candidates who are moderate—along with all other characteristics that come bundled with that—and those who are not. 110
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 01/11/2025To expand on this, my view on this debate is that part of the issue is that the Nate Silver-types misunderstand causality. Even if the moderate advantage is X number of percentage points that doesn't imply that *moderation* will be successful. These are all just conditional correlations (at best). 100
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 01/11/2025Even a very low p-value only indicates that, if the null hypothesis were true, observing a test statistic that large would be unlikely. It does not, on its own, establish causality. Causal inference depends on credible research design and identifying assumptions, not statistical significance. 010
Reposted by Julian GerezErin Lockwood @erinkaylockwood.bsky.social · 30/10/2025Nearly half of UC undergraduates and graduate students experience food insecurity. Those numbers will increase with the federal government's refusal to fund SNAP (CalFresh). If you can afford it, please consider contributing to the UCI Basic Needs Center, which feeds many of our students.zotfunder.give.uci.eduFill Our Pantries: Nourish Student SuccessHelp University of California, Irvine raise $15,000 for the project: Fill Our Pantries: Nourish Student Success. Your gift will make a difference! 043
Reposted by Julian GerezAdee Weller @adeeweller.bsky.social · 30/10/2025Re-election means voters can hold elected officials accountable, but can it be effective where criminal groups shape local politics? In my new article in @bjpols.bsky.social, I show that in high-crime areas of Mexico, re-election did not boost accountability, but increased collusion instead. 142
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 25/10/2025This is a great opportunity at an amazing university in one of the most beautiful cities in the world! 140
Reposted by Julian GerezSergi Martínez @sergisme.bsky.social · 25/10/2025📢 Exciting news from EAFIT University in Medellín 🇨🇴! The Politics and Development Area of the School of Finance, Economics, and Government is opening 3️⃣ tenure-track positions to join our interdisciplinary School. 👇 More details in the next posts. 289
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 24/10/2025Fun exercise for students in a causal inference class: draw a DAG for this debate. 151
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 22/10/2025This is great! I've always wanted to do this but never had the time—and am grateful you did so at the shot level. Can you provide some descriptives on the variance parameters? That was always my big curiosity from this type of approach. www.juliangerez.com/blog/2025/02...juliangerez.comUtilizing variance in xG to understand finishing ability: a concept 000
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 22/10/2025I joined @cnn.com International last night to discuss the recent U.S. military strikes on alleged drug-smuggling vessels and their implications for counternarcotics cooperation, U.S.-Colombia relations, and regional geopolitics more broadly. (1/2) 240
Reposted by Julian GerezPhilip Luke Johnson @phillegitimate.bsky.social · 20/09/2025I wrote about deadly US strikes in the Caribbean. A lot has been said about the illegality of the strikes, but impunity (and not legality) is the whole point. 036
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 17/09/2025I'm a true believer and I checked out the book from the library... but I will order a copy to have on my shelf and help proselytize! 000
Reposted by Julian GerezJournal of Peace Research @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social · 16/09/2025🚨 New publication alert! 🚨 When do armed groups capture democratic elections, and when do they fail to do so? In a new study, @andresuribe.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) investigates how local party competition can shape the effectiveness of coercion during Colombia’s 2002 Senate elections. 132
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 14/08/2025Do you think this would be an issue if he played a different position? 020
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 05/08/2025I'm working on a difference-in-RDs project but struggling with how to properly handle bandwidth selection across treatment periods. It's not obvious to me how to choose a bandwidth for multiple separate RD estimates at once. Would love pointers to resources or best practices! Thanks in advance 🙏🏼 053
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 02/08/2025Indeed. And Columbia has made it harder for everyone else by demonstrating that the federal government's coercive strategy works. They've narrowed the space for other institutions to resist this type of extortion. 030
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 28/07/2025By the way, this also applies to all experiments and any observational studies that use comparisons. Report control/baseline information to contextualize differences! 151
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 28/07/2025Great explainer! I think visualization plays a role too—both FOX/WSJ present party differences centered at zero, without the levels for each party. Here's a quick (thrown-together) example of how showing the underlying values—even when excluding the other responses—paints a very different picture. 0120
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 24/07/2025It's hard to describe how sad and embarrassed I feel by this. 141
Reposted by Julian GerezArin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 24/07/2025A timely and trenchant piece by Suresh Naidu. When future generations sift through the wreckage of our era, they’ll find it strewn with the institutional and personal failures of leaders both great and small. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/o...nytimes.comOpinion | Columbia’s Administrators Are Fooling Themselves 212045
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 07/05/2025I defended my dissertation today! A heartfelt thanks to my committee—@vickymurillo.bsky.social, John Marshall, Sarah Daly, @emoncada.bsky.social, and @gemmadipoppa.bsky.social—for their insight, generosity, and steady support, as well as the family and friends who've backed me every step of the way. 0121
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 05/03/2025Building on this and the discussion of political strategists, a key issue is that while strategists excel at maximizing short-term, easily measurable outcomes (e.g., which email subject line generates more donations), they are less adept at addressing these broader, more interesting questions. 051
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 03/03/2025See Elisa Wirsching's great research on the uneven variation in NYPD effort for political reasons for some evidence on this. elisawirsching.github.io/research/pol... bsky.app/profile/drew...elisawirsching.github.io 010
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 04/02/2025I'm neither happy nor proud of this joke, but I appreciate the support 000
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 04/02/2025Wow, another unreasonably high expectation for instrumental variables papers—not only must the exclusion restriction hold for identification, but for funding too? 010
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 03/02/2025To end on a lighter note, a less serious (but equally true!) version of my thoughts on government funding of science: bsky.app/profile/laur... 030
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 03/02/2025These cuts will have ripple effects beyond what we can predict. Beyond the scientific and policy implications, they are not legal! Congress established USAID, and shutting it down via executive action is unconstitutional. The consequences of these decisions will be felt for years to come. 130
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 03/02/2025USAID funds many proven interventions but also supports long-term efforts that don't always show instant results. E.g., cutting funding for epidemic response in Africa increases the likelihood of global outbreaks, defunding civil society assistance in Latin America fuels migration pressures, etc. 120
Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 03/02/2025But fear of failure distorts how research is pursued and creates blindspots in our knowledge. When funding is tied to short-term impact, researchers avoid riskier projects that could lead to groundbreaking discoveries. This is true not just for science but for global development work as well. 120