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Julian Gerez

@juliangerez.com

1.1K followers 626 following 81 posts

Assistant Professor of Criminology, Law and Society and Political Science (by courtesy) at the University of California, Irvine. I study the political economy of security, crime, and law enforcement.

Posts Replies Media

Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 11/06/2026

Political science: The probability of being the decisive voter is effectively zero Second round of the 2026 Peruvian general election:

Election results graphic showing Keiko Fujimori (FP) vs. Roberto Sánchez (JP) in the 2026 Peruvian presidential runoff, 98.2% reporting as of June 10, 23:48 UTC−5. Popular vote: Fujimori 9,032,651 (50.002%) — Sánchez 9,032,000 (49.998%).

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 04/06/2026

Sharing ongoing work with @simonepaci.bsky.social: why is "vice" tax evasion stubbornly high? We argue the usual compliance mechanisms fail for vice taxes, and are currently running (we think) the first RCT of excise enforcement with the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration to test.

Map of California titled "Wave 1 Tobacco Inspections." Subtitle: 539 inspections across 10 CDTFA zones, February–March 2026. Blue dots mark inspected retailers, orange triangles mark zone headquarters, and orange dashed circles show 30-mile sampling radii around each headquarters. Clusters of inspections are visible along the coast and Central Valley, spanning zones from West Sacramento and Oakland in the north to San Diego and Irvine in the south.

Horizontal bar chart titled "Seizure Rates by Zone, Wave 1." Subtitle: 125 seizures detected across 539 inspections (23%). Bars show seizure rates ranging from 15% (Bakersfield, 11/75) to 36% (Fresno, 16/45), with all 10 California zones represented. Fresno and San Jose have the highest rates; West Sacramento and Bakersfield the lowest.

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 22/10/2025

(2/2)

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 22/10/2025

I joined @cnn.com International last night to discuss the recent U.S. military strikes on alleged drug-smuggling vessels and their implications for counternarcotics cooperation, U.S.-Colombia relations, and regional geopolitics more broadly. (1/2)

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 28/07/2025

Great explainer! I think visualization plays a role too—both FOX/WSJ present party differences centered at zero, without the levels for each party. Here's a quick (thrown-together) example of how showing the underlying values—even when excluding the other responses—paints a very different picture.

A faceted bar plot that shows FOX News and WSJ poll results on which party is best prepared to handle two issues, inflation and the economy. The FOX News poll results show the two parties basically even, with both parties having relatively high levels of support. The WSJ poll on the other hand shows much lower absolute support for both parties, suggesting widespread voter skepticism about either party's ability to handle these issues, even as Republicans have a lead.

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 07/05/2025

I defended my dissertation today! A heartfelt thanks to my committee—@vickymurillo.bsky.social, John Marshall, Sarah Daly, @emoncada.bsky.social, and @gemmadipoppa.bsky.social—for their insight, generosity, and steady support, as well as the family and friends who've backed me every step of the way.

Me in the center with the members of my committee, smiling in front of a whiteboard after my dissertation defense!

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 01/02/2025

To the point of a "Trump effect" on seizures, as tempting as it may be to link seizures to political events, these are influenced by many factors beyond who holds the U.S. presidency (or Mexican presidency, for that matter). I created this figure to provide some evidence for this claim.

Alt text generated by an LLM: Line chart showing the average monthly fentanyl and heroin seizures (in kg) by the Mexican government in six-month periods from 2015 to 2022. The y-axis represents the amount of seizures in kilograms, and the x-axis represents the years. Fentanyl seizures, represented by a blue line with circular markers, start near zero in 2015 and increase sharply after 2017, peaking in 2021 before fluctuating. Heroin seizures, represented by an orange line with triangular markers, are initially high but show a declining trend after 2018, reaching near zero by 2022. While there are fluctuations in seizures, overall trends do not show substantive changes that clearly align with the timing of U.S. presidential administrations.

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 23/12/2024

I'm holding off on Hades 2 until it's complete, but absolutely adore the first game (best run attached). Can't wait to try the sequel.

Victory screen for a 32-heat Hades run using the Aspect of Zeus (shield) weapon and various Zeus boons including on the special and static discharge which gives enemies the "jolted" status effect.

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 03/09/2024

I have also worked on collaborative survey research projects in Latin America exploring social and geopolitical dynamics related to how state-imposed policies and international actions shape public trust and compliance in the context of COVID-19 vaccines. 7/9 muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 03/09/2024

In related research on tough-on-crime behavior in the United States, I find that when governors face reduced electoral incentives, they increase the likelihood and frequency of capital punishment commutations. 6/9 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 03/09/2024

The other papers of my dissertation focus on the consequences of enforcement policies, including their political effects which weaken electoral accountability and their effects on the economic diversification of criminal actors (shocks to coca lead to increases in illegal mining, for example). 5/9

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 03/09/2024

Using the case of counternarcotics in Colombia, my job market paper leverages a diff-in-diff to show that governments use enforcement selectively based on the influence of non-state armed groups, endangering the rule of law, state capacity, and democracy. 4/9  julianegerez.github.io/research/Era...

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 25/03/2024

Excited to share my paper exploring subnational variation in law enforcement intensity, focusing on coca eradication in Colombia. I'll be presenting it at various venues soon, including the MPSA mini-conference on organized crime and politics. julianegerez.github.io/research/EradicationCauses.pdf

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