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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Our estimated working-age employment rate based on administrative data – which now matches up well with the ONS's headline measure that uses the Labour Force Survey – suggests a fall to 74.9 per cent by August.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

But other labour market indicators have continued to weaken. The number of payrolled employees fell by 19k in July, on top of a 22k fall in June, and early estimates (likely to be revised) suggest a further fall of 26k in August, and vacancies are still drifting downwards.

Number of paid employees according to real-time PAYE data: UK

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Meanwhile, there has been little change in the trends in wider labour market indicators. Unemployment has held steady at 4.9 per cent, little changed since the start of 2026.

16+ unemployment rate (Labour Force Survey): UK

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Not everyone will feel the squeeze though. Today’s total pay figure of 3.9 per cent sets next spring’s state pension rise via the triple lock – up by £9.41 per week to £250.71. Working-age benefits, in contrast, rise only with September CPI, forecasted at just 3 per cent.

Growth in nominal whole economy average weekly earnings (total pay) and CPI inflation: GB

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Strip out inflation and pay growth is still close to negative. Real regular pay growth is running at just 0.6 per cent and set to weaken further as CPIH climbs over the autumn.

Annual growth in average weekly earnings (regular pay) and CPIH inflation: GB

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Behind the economy-wide figure of 3.5 per cent growth in nominal regular pay, sits a growing public-private gap: it is up 6.3 per cent in the public sector against just 2.9 per cent in the private sector, with public sector growth boosted by the timing of NHS pay settlements landing in this release.

Annual growth in nominal average weekly earnings (regular pay), by sector: GB

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Private sector pay growth fell to 2.9 per cent in the three months to July, marking the third month of weakest growth since October 2025 – when real pay growth in the sector turned negative. With inflation set to climb through the rest of the year, the pay squeeze is only going to tighten.

Growth in nominal private sector average weekly earnings, change since a year earlier and annualised change compared to three months earlier: GB

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

New labour market statistics out this morning – and this month's data include the pay growth figure that will feed into the next 'triple lock' uprating of the State Pension. Mine and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social's @resolutionfoundation.org response thread:

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Reposted by Julia Diniz

Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Today’s labour market statistics show that the decent GDP growth from the early summer isn’t (yet) translating into stronger employment and pay, which both remained fairly flat in the latest month. Our @resolutionfoundation.org thread from me and @louisemurphy.bsky.social 🧵...

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

And while it’s good news that the Government has continued to roll out Mental Health Support Teams in all educational settings but we’re still a long way from full coverage, and provision in FE colleges is especially poor.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Finally, while much needed, education fixes alone won’t solve the NEET crisis for future generations. We’ve long vouched for more mental health support in schools as a key way to support those at risk of losing track.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Young people without university plans already report feeling much less supported in navigating their career pathways than those with plans to go. Balancing technical and academic pathways should help close this gap.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Education matters because of who ends up NEET. Across every age group, NEETs are far more likely than all young people to hold only GCSE-level qualifications or below – and the gap widens the older they get.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

And the gap is mostly concentrated in vocational education. By age 18, participation is 66% here compared to an average of 84% in the stand-out low-NEET countries Netherlands, Germany and Denmark. This is not about a difference in ability, but a difference in the routes on offer.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

The evidence is clear: countries with lower NEET rates than the UK get there almost entirely through higher rates of post-18 education – more young people stay in education, for longer, and often combine it with work.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

“A lot of the [NEET] problem is technical education routes,” Andy Burnham said today. Good to see the PM’s read matching what our research shows. A thread 🧵

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

There’s better news still on regional pay gaps, which have narrowed since the last election. Real pay has grown faster in the lowest-paid regions like Yorkshire and the North East, while London and the South East have fallen behind.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

And while the Starmer government has struggled on employment, it has done much better on pay. Real weekly pay has grown by £7 a week (from roughly £692 to £699) since the election in July 2024.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Zooming out, real pay growth continues to stay just ahead of inflation, though it inched up to 0.3%. If tensions in the Middle East continues, workers should continue to brace for yet another period of shrinking pay packets.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Turning to pay, nominal pay growth ticked down again this month: the 3-month measure eased to 2.3%, and the 12-month measure to 2.9% - both continuing a slowdown that’s been underway for well over a year.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

And similarly, the unemployment rate has risen from 4.1% to 4.9% over the same period – though the good news is that it appears to have stopped rising, and is down from a recent high of 5.2%.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Our estimates (using admin data as an alternative to Labour Force Survey figures) suggest this fall in payrolled employees has driven a fall in the employment rate from 75.9% to 75.1% over the past two years.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Starting with jobs: payrolled employment has been falling since October 2024, and has fallen by over 150k since the 2024 election. But the decline has flattened out in recent months - jobs rose marginally (by 3k) between April and May.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Responding to new labour market stats out this morning, we've taken a step back to look at the legacy the Starmer govt left to Andy Burnham – higher unemployment and fewer payrolled jobs, but some real wage growth and shrinking regional pay gaps. A thread with @hannahslaughter.bsky.social 🧵:

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Reposted by Julia Diniz

Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

This morning’s data shows a weak labour market: unemployment remains high and real wages are barely growing. The monthly LFS unemployment data is volatile but the big picture is that unemployment has been climbing for the past few years and stood at 4.9% in the three months to April.

Chart showing - Unemployment rate (Labour Force Survey): UK

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Reposted by Julia Diniz

Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 27/05/2026

🚨 Last chance to sign up: Can workers in precarious sectors exert influence over pay and working conditions? We'll be hosting a disussion on our latest research looking at individual worker power in low-paid and precarious sectors. Sign up here: buff.ly/5VmNszO

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

While bad news for workers, it makes the BoE's job easier. A weak labour market means workers can't claw back real pay losses from higher energy prices. Firms expect to raise prices by 4.4% over the coming year, but wages by only 3.5%. So real-wage spirals look much less likely this time.

Decision Maker Panel's own price and wage expectations

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Nominal pay growth continues to slow. Annual private sector regular pay growth is at 3%. The annualised quarter-on-quarter growth rate stands at just 2.1%, suggesting more cooling still to come.

Growth in nominal private sector average weekly earnings

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Zooming out, real wage growth has fallen to a halt of just 0.1%. With inflation set to rise over the coming months, and with nominal pay growth just about matching inflation, the UK is on the cusp of its fourth period of falling real pay since the financial crisis.

Annual growth in average weekly earnings and CPIH inflation

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

The picture on pay is even bleaker. After two and a half years of recovery from the cost of living crisis, real pay growth has ground to a halt.

Real average weekly earnings in regular pay, showing the start of a downward trend after some recovery since late 2022.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

But falling PAYE jobs and a still-rising population imply a falling employment rate, unlike what LFS is showing. Caveat to those estimates: the pace of current population growth is uncertain – we’ll be watching out for new migration data on Thursday.

16+ employment rate using the Labour Force Survey's estimates and RF's own estimates based on administrative and population data.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Payrolled jobs have continued falling – down 39k from December to March. There was a large 100k fall in the April data, but revisions following initial April estimates tend to be similarly large, so better to wait for the revised estimates.

Number of paid employees according to RTI PAYE data, showing a big fall in the latest data point (flash estimate).

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

A surprising few months where LFS unemployment fell now look like a blip. The single month estimate for March jumped to 5.5% (highest since 2015), taking the three-month average back up to 5%. This confirms the big picture of a loose rather than tightening labour market.

Unemployment rate from the Labour Force Survey for the UK, showing 3-month and single month series.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

This morning’s labour market stats show the UK labour market entered the period of the war in the Middle East in a weak place: unemployment at 5%, payrolled jobs falling and real wage growth grinding to a halt. A thread from me and @nyecominetti.bsky.social 🧵

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Reposted by Julia Diniz

Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 15/05/2026

In our latest Substack, Research Trainee Jamie Titus-Glover looks at how income inequality between ethnic minorities and their White counterparts has changed over the past three decades. Though there are signs of progress, big disparities remain ⬇️ buff.ly/pX0vG2a

resolutionfoundation.substack.com

The UK has become more equal but ethnic minorities still earn less than their White counterparts

RF Research Trainee Jamie Titus-Glover takes a look at how income inequality between ethnic minorities and their White counterparts has changed over the past three decades.

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Reposted by Julia Diniz

Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 11/05/2026

Graduates who grew up in deep poverty still earn less than their peers ten years into their careers. @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social explains ⤵️

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Reposted by Julia Diniz

Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

New @resolutionfoundation.org substack with @charliemccurdy.bsky.social considering the implications of the UK's new demographic era - one where deaths outweigh births and all population growth comes from net migration, and that's falling too 👇 resolutionfoundation.substack.com/p/the-uks-de...

resolutionfoundation.substack.com

The UK’s demographic squeeze

What do the next few years hold for the UK’s population? And what does that mean for the public finances?

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Reposted by Julia Diniz

Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 28/04/2026

The latest ONS population projections show that Britain is at a demographic turning point⤵️

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Watch @nyecominetti.bsky.social present our findings at the event this morning on: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovCf... Read the full report here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications... And watch out for @nyecominetti.bsky.social and @alexclegg.bsky.social for more insights on the report!

youtube.com

Closer to work: How to tackle Britain’s NEETs challenge

YouTube video by Resolution Foundation

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

The report sets out recommendations across health, education and benefits. And because a problem this entrenched (too many NEETs have overlapping barriers) it needs action on all three. But it’s worth the prize: matching the Netherlands would mean 600,000 fewer young people lost in transition!

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

And how did Italy and Ireland make such progress? Mostly just with economies recovery. Strip out the wider LM cycle and the structural improvement is much smaller, though still there and tied to policies both countries implemented around work and education (incl. the EU Youth Guarantee).

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

But our high rate compared to abroad is not really a jobs story. Of the 23 OECD countries with lower 18-24 NEET rates than the UK, all but two get there through more education — not more work. We're already top-six on the share of 18-24s in employment.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Problem #2: even if we returned to 2019 NEET rates, our levels were already far higher than other European countries. In 2019 the UK had the 18th highest rate of 23 OECD-EU countries. By 2024 we'd fallen to 21st.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

The other half is structural, linked to a higher share of young people inactive due to ill health. Unemployment can't be blamed much: the 18-24s NEET-unemployed rate tracks what 25+ unemployment would predict. Still, pausing youth MW convergence is the right call given the cyclical weakness.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

The 25+ unemployment rate is up 0.9pp since 2019. On the historic relationship between the two, that alone predicts a 1.6pp rise in the NEET rate. But it's actually risen 2.8pp. So just over half the increase since 2019 reflects a weakening wider labour market.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Our main premise: the UK has not one, but two problems with NEETs. Problem #1: the rate has been rising since 2019. This has undone a third of the progress made since the financial crisis and puts us at a rate last seen in 2005.

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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Today we published new @resolutionfoundation.org research on the UK's 18-24 NEET rate with @alexclegg.bsky.social, @nyecominetti.bsky.social, Lindsay Judge and Imogen Stone. My top-pick findings below 🧵

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Reposted by Julia Diniz

Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 28/04/2026

What is Britain's NEET rate rising? Half of the increase can be explained by a weaker labour market. As overall unemployment has risen, so too has the NEET rate. But as the chart shows, this doesn't explain all of the rise. So what else is driving up the UK's NEET rate?

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