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Josh Pasek

@joshpasek.com
5.4K followers 2K following 899 posts

Prof of Comm and Polisci @UMich studying how people get & use political information and social measurement. Competencies: data sci, DIY solar, election analytics, carpooling, #polcom, #polpsych, survey methods, AI literacy (views=own, overuses speech2text)

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 14/09/2026
And if you are not on campus, check out our #teachout on what democracy is, how it really works, and what it takes to keep it: www.coursera.org/learn/democr...
coursera.org
Teach-Out® Democracy and Civic Engagement
Offered by University of Michigan. Democracy shapes the decisions that affect our communities and day-to-day lives, yet many people have ... Enroll for free.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 14/09/2026
We are hosting #DemocracyWeek here at @umich.edu -- Hosting a series of amazing events all week across campus to highlight what Democracy means and why it matters: democracyweek.umich.edu
democracyweek.umich.edu
Democracy Week
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Stone Center for Inequality Dynamics @umichstonecid.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
What shapes who runs for office, who becomes a viable candidate, and how does class influence who ultimately governs? Join @noamlupu.bsky.social, @nickcarnes.bsky.social, and @robertocarlos.bsky.social for “Who Runs? Candidacy & Class." Sept. 17, noon–1:30 p.m. Free and open. RSVP: bit.ly/whoruns
Promotional graphic for “Who Runs? Candidacy & Class,” part of Democracy Week at U-M. Thursday, September 17, noon–1:30 p.m., Room 1430, ISR Thompson Building. Lunch begins at 11:45 a.m. with RSVP; the event is free and open to all. Headshots identify panelists Noam Lupu of Vanderbilt University and Nick Carnes of Duke University, and moderator Roberto Carlos of U-M Political Science. Presented by the Stone Center’s SWIPE initiative with support from U-M’s Initiative for Democracy and Civic Empowerment. RSVP at bit.ly/whoruns.
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
National Jewish Survey, Sep 1, 2026 Generic congressional ballot: 67% D, 26% R Approvals JD Vance: -68 MAGA: -59 Donald Trump: -53 ICE: -50 Benjamin Netanyahu: -40 Marco Rubio: -33 "Israeli policy in Gaza": -30 Barack Obama +32 jewishvoters.org/wp-content/u...
jewishvoters.org
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 09/08/2026
In the past, I’ve had Wi-Fi issues with a couple of computers, and found the easiest day-to-day fix is just to get a USB Wi-Fi adapter. It’s not elegant, but addresses the problem pretty effectively.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 07/08/2026
Are you sure its not just a very literal understanding of jaw dropping - you see the two times that you really do drop your jaw is when you have to open your mouth to eat and when you finally get to relax into a bed.
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Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Sweet Jesus, watch this until the end. After he says "what's new?" it's like he realizes that he's sold off the last bits of his integrity and there's just no point to talking anymore.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 07/08/2026
The big problem though is that weighted inferential statistics are no longer BLUE - there are reasonable approaches to figuring out how big and consistent the difference is after weighting, but I very rarely see them used. Running the weighted regression, however, is usually not appropriate.
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 06/08/2026
🚨New Cambridge Element🚨 "American Presidential Campaigns in the Attention Economy" by @cerenbudak.bsky.social, Jonathan M. Ladd, @joshpasek.com, Lisa Singh and Michael W. Traugott, part of the Campaigns and Elections series, is out now and #OpenAccess cup.org/4bvBXUg #PoliSky #Elections
cup.org
American Presidential Campaigns in the Attention Economy
Cambridge Core - American Studies - American Presidential Campaigns in the Attention Economy
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/08/2026
Just to be clear, this is what happens in a town that prides itself as being liberal when the DSA candidate is also the NIMBY candidate.
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Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
The critical question of US politics right now is whether the reticence of normally solid Republican voters to pick up the phone and talk to pollsters signals a general disengagement with politics (and thus low turnout in November), or is limited to polling.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 24/07/2026
So crystal clear
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 24/07/2026
“No on recall, Yes on Bustamante!”
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Dan Froomkin/Press Watch/Heads Up News @froomkin.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Now they’re saying “exaggerates”??? Who changed that? Coward.
LIVE
 2m ago
 Trump Exaggerates Claims About
 Election Vulnerabilities in Address
 President Trump laid out a purported
 effort by China to undermine him. But the
 documents posted by the White House did
 not back up his claims.
 See new updates ›
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Asha Rangappa @asharangappa.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
“Prebunking” has been found to be very effective in neutralizing disinformation
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 08/07/2026
“Weaponized his vehicle” sounds like the ICE version of “It’s coming right at us” www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vr0b...
youtube.com
How To Get Around Hunting Laws - SOUTH PARK
YouTube video by South Park Studios
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
22/22 Obviously, the country has fallen short on these ideals an incredible number of times. But if the view of the declaration is that it should serve as the country's mission statement, we might want to pay more attention to what it distinctly does not say about American citizenship & government.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
21/ So what view of society does it imply? One: - Where rights supersede government - Where people are the ultimate arbiters - Where religious and political authority are separate - Where status as a peoplehood and citizenship are not about ancestry - Where justice is independent of power
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
20/ And finally, “In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress…” It is only legitimate to claim a right to independence after working through other channels.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
19/ “He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither…” Foreigners should be able to become citizens. Growth via immigration is treated as a public good.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
18/ “For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury…” “For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried…” Justice needs to remain accountable to the community it serves.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
17/ “For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent…” Taxes require legitimate political authority, and consent is what makes them legitimate. So the ability of government to compel things depends on its accountability.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
16/ “He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies…” “He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.” Civil leaders should be in charge, not the military.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
15/ “He has obstructed the Administration of Justice…” “He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone…” Judges must be independent of the executive.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
14/ “He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly…” Government without representation isn’t merely bad policy. It’s illegitimate.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
13/ “He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.” Basically, the executive should not overrule the laws of the people (produced by the legislature).
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
12/ Now the grievances begin. But where these are usually framed as “What sins did George commit as a ruler?” Ask another question: “If this is a fundamental abuse, what does that mean about what good government should look like?”
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
11/ “Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes…” Revolutions should be rare, only when other methods have proved insufficient to address grievances.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
10/ “…Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed…” "…it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it…” But unlike rights, the authority of government comes from people.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
9/ “…endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights…” Where do rights come from? The Creator—not government. But notice as well the choice not to refer to any specific theological doctrine nor to any religious establishment.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
8/ “…all men are created equal…” We all know this line because it was downright revolutionary as a political claim at the time.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
7/ “We hold these truths to be self-evident…” The appeal is to shared human reason, not to revelation or any particular form of authority or faith. The presumption is that anyone can recognize them.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
6/ “…the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God…” An extraordinarily broad phrasing that applies across Christians, deists, and Enlightenment natural-law thinkers, but does not ground itself in any particular church.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
5/ “…to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station…” Independence was a claim to equal standing, not some kind of superiority (or later exceptionalism). And the rationale is that free peoples possess equal standing among nations.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
4/ "...it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve..." Where most founding narratives begin with a particular group, often with a particular divine or historical mandate, this is again framed as a broader norm. The nation is presented as a political community, not an ethnic one.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
3/ These distinctions become clear when you look at what the declaration says and what it conspicuously does not say. “When in the Course of human events…” It doesn't begin with America or England or Christianity or Church. This is a universal human story, not only one group's.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
2/ Key ideas: declaration uses careful words to paint some really interesting distinctions, in ways that challenged thinking at the time & have some interesting implications today. It conceptually separates nation from ethnicity. Government from monarchy. Rights from government. & God from church.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
1/ So as is my tradition, I was reading the Declaration of Independence today and I was thinking that instead of asking what it says about King George, it might be more interesting to think about what kind of country the founders were envisioning. A 🧵
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Timothy Snyder @timothysnyder.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
To celebrate a rebellion is to know that, from a flawed world, we can make new things. We can hold on, we can find each other, and not just imagine but create a much better America. It is a special 250th – it is ours. Video in link: snyder.substack.com/p/on-tyranny...
snyder.substack.com
On Tyranny — Special 250th Edition
With friends, on video, to recall and to rebel
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 04/07/2026
"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights" "to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed"
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026
There’s something quite fitting and ironic about celebrating the nation’s 250th birthday with a two day long power outage. An inspiring anniversary dashed by degraded infrastructure…
Power outage map showing an outage that started at 6 PM on July 3 is expected to be restored at 11:30 PM on July 5.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 28/06/2026
One exercise I have my students do in my AI literacy class is to ask it to generate a résumé for themselves. When the AI has very little data to go on, it tends to hallucinate around the few things that it has connected to the person‘s name. I’m worried about the returns on personalized searches.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 27/06/2026
Could they do it, absolutely. Is it something they would want to do? I’m actually not sure. But if the model is linking the data inadvertently, then the probability goes way up for these kinds of spillovers.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 27/06/2026
Of course that. What I’m more thinking about is the probability that the model links a question that you ask with memory off to your name such that it functionally learns you have a cancer scare when you ask it a medical question w/o using PII and then presents responses to others based on that.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 27/06/2026
We know that these companies use the data they get from users to train their models. The question of how much personal data they’re training on is important for the risks of privacy leaks based on the trained data. So my concern is personalized information leak into their training models.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 27/06/2026
100% Assuming that AI would respond like humans was always a silly idea. But the psychological approach to figuring out the black box of how AI responses vary in reaction to different stimuli is deeply undermined if different users are unable to replicate patterns of responsiveness within a model.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 27/06/2026
If the identifying information is being directly bundled on or even if there’s a conditional probability of the original text being observed based on identity, that “personalized“ learning happens faster regardless of user intent.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 27/06/2026
Allowed to do this for sure given privacy policies. But the substantive question is about what the AI is treating as a text when learning. If there’s no individually identifying information in a text, weights derived from that text are unlikely to change through mention of that individual’s name.
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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 27/06/2026
Dunno, but important to investigate. I would guess/hope not, but I also think we need to confirm. And it would probably be valuable to figure out what other contextual information is being passed along. I’m fairly sure that a general location is being used in addition to the name stuff.
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