iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 04/07/2026

There’s something quite fitting and ironic about celebrating the nation’s 250th birthday with a two day long power outage. An inspiring anniversary dashed by degraded infrastructure…

Power outage map showing an outage that started at 6 PM on July 3 is expected to be restored at 11:30 PM on July 5.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 26/06/2026

The fact that memory-off AI is being given personalized contextual data is not only a massive violation of user privacy, but also makes it very difficult to psychologically study AI responses, if they can be uniquely impacted by whose account is putting in the query.

What you’re describing isn’t just a privacy issue. It’s a problem of experimental control.

Suppose you want to evaluate an LLM’s reasoning. You’d like the response to be a function of the prompt and the conversation:

Y = f(C)

where C is the visible conversational context.

Instead, if there is hidden conditioning,

Y = f(C, Z)

where Z is latent metadata or personalization.

The problem is that Z is unobserved by the experimenter.

That’s precisely what makes replication difficult. A second researcher (or even you, in a fresh account) cannot recreate the conditioning set, even if they reproduce the conversation exactly.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 26/06/2026

Just inadvertently discovered that a whole bunch of research on AI responses may be invalid. Apparently, even with memory off, ChatGPT is still giving contextual information, including the name of the user! It used my full name casually in conversation; which means that data is in the model.

I asked: Please write a summary from your perspective as an AI on what happened here and keep it short - Chat response: From my perspective as the AI:

During this conversation, I referred to the user by name even though long-term memory was disabled. I did not retrieve that information from prior chats, but I did have access to hidden contextual metadata that identified the user, and I used it conversationally when I shouldn’t have. That revealed that my responses were conditioned on information beyond the visible transcript. The user pointed out that, regardless of whether the information came from memory, metadata, or retrieval, hidden conditioning changes the effective inputs to the model. For researchers, that creates a reproducibility problem because the conversation transcript alone is no longer a complete specification of what produced the response.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 15/06/2026

The distinction between the right parading around masculinity and their desire to masculinize Michelle Obama seems out of left field and self conflicting until you understand the stereotypes at play… as @stewartcoles.bsky.social and I found in our paper. psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?d...

Highlighted from the abstract: black women were also rated as being less similar to women in general than white women.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 29/05/2026

Have to give AI some cred on this prediction:

The funniest possible outcome now may be that the event slowly collapses until it’s basically:

* Vanilla Ice,
* Bret Michaels,
* Flo Rida,
* a replacement country act,
* and 14 hours of online commentary about how Vanilla Ice somehow became the last man standing at America’s semiquincentennial nostalgia apocalypse.

—-

Two days later, you guessed it, Flo Rida and vanilla ice are the only originals left

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 28/05/2026

As an experiment, I asked AI what it made of the lineup — it sounded like a Maureen Dowd column.

This is not just “some county fair in the Midwest booked a nostalgia package.” This is supposedly a flagship national commemoration on the National Mall for the semiquincentennial, and the entertainment curation still defaults to:

* aging pop-commercial acts,
* extremely safe cultural references,
* aggressively non-challenging nostalgia,
* and performers whose primary qualification is broad recognizability rather than artistic or civic significance.

That disconnect is what makes the whole thing feel unintentionally satirical.

You could imagine a 250th-anniversary lineup emphasizing:

* foundational American music traditions,
* regionally representative artists,
* culturally consequential performers,
* ambitious commissions/collaborations,
* historically meaningful music,
* contemporary artists with actual artistic weight.

Instead it reads like:

“What if a casino Fourth of July weekend had federal sponsorship?”

And the bizarre authenticity gradient inside the lineup becomes part of the comedy. Milli Vanilli at a patriotic national commemoration is already surreal; realizing Vanilla Ice may rank among the more straightforwardly authentic performers there pushes it into performance art.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 15/01/2026

The one paper we should all be showing to ICE. And why yes, I do have printed copies by my door and in my car.

Fourth Amendment to the US Constitution

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched and the persons or things to be seized.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 03/01/2026

I’m legitimately confused about how the US can charge a representative of a foreign government with having a machine gun in their own country, “out of the jurisdiction of any particular State or district of the United States”

COUNT THREE
(Possession of Machineguns and Destructive Devices)
The Grand Jury further charges:
31. Paragraphs 1 through 21 of this Superseding Indictment are realleged and
incorporated by reference as though fully set forth herein.
32. From at least in or about 1999, up to and including in or about 2025, in an offense
begun and committed out of the jurisdiction of any particular State or district of the United States,
and for which at least one of two or more joint offenders has been and will be first brought to and
arrested in the Southern District of New York, NICOLAS MADURO MOROS, DIOSDADO
CABELLO RONDON, RAMON RODRIGUEZ CHACIN, CILIA ADELA FLORES DE
21
MADURO, NICOLAS ERNESTO MADURO GUERRA, a/k/a "Nicolasito," a/k/a "The Prince,"
and HECTOR RUSTHENFORD GUERRERO FLORES, a/k/a "Nifio Guerrero," the defendants,
during and in relation to a drug trafficking crime for which they may be prosecuted in a court of
the United States, to wit, for MADURO MOROS, CABELLO RONDON, and RODRIGUEZ
CHACIN, the controlled substance offenses charged in Counts One and Two of this Superseding
Indictment, and for FLORES DE MADURO, MADURO GUERRA, and GUERRERO FLORES
the controlled substance offense charged in Count Two of this Superseding Indictment, knowingly
used and carried firearms, and, in furtherance of such crimes, knowingly possessed firearms, and
aided and abetted the use, carrying, and possession of firearms, to wit, machineguns that were
capable of automatically shooting more than one shot, without manual reloading, by a single
function of the trigger, as well as destructive devices.
(Title 18, United States Code, Sections 924(c)(l)(A), 924(c)(l)(B)(ii), 3238, and 2.)

COUNT FOUR
(Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices)

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 01/12/2025

We find that: - Beliefs held with confidence are more important for summary judgements. - If people knew more about the Affordable Care Act, they would have liked it more. - Greater confidence in that knowledge likely would have increased rather than decreased polarization about the law.

Bayesian coefficient estimate plot showing that: (1) What you think of things you are sure are in the law is associated with attitudes toward the law, (2) what you think of things you are sure are not in the law are inversely associated with attitudes toward the law, (3) what you think of thinks you are not sure are in the law are only weakly associated with attitudes toward the law.

Bayesian coefficient plot showing the relative importance of 18 provisions that either were or were not in the law. Most important provisions were individual mandate awareness, awareness that undocumented individuals were not covered by the ACA, elimination of coverage caps, and subsidies for low income individuals. Note that lower importance here could signify a lack of provision importance or shared variance with other provisions.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 26/11/2025

My mother was playing “this little piggy” with my 8 week old niece. Can we please all agree that there are only 2 little piggies? Went to market (piggy 1) Stayed home (piggy 2) Had roast beef (piggy 1) Had none (piggy 2) Went whee whee whee all the way home (piggy 1) Nonsequitor with 5 of them

Neice baby foot - 5 toes but too many for the little piggies

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 18/11/2025

cdn.pastemagazine.com/www/articles...

We apologize again for the fault in the subtitles. Those responsible for sacking the people who have just been sacked, have been sacked.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 10/11/2025

Preliminary data from @umich.edu survey on student AI use for class. Most rarely/sometimes use AI & always follow class policies, but think others frequently use AI & only sometimes follow policies. Perceptions of misuse ≠ reality Misperceptions may provide implicit permission for misuse.

Students think most other students regularly use AI for classes, but that they do so far less frequently.

Students think most other students regularly violate AI policies, but that they almost always follow them.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 08/08/2025

If you want to understand why it can’t seem to self correct on how many Bs are in blueberry, and why that is so dangerous:

That’s a pretty apt analogy — my version of confirmation bias can be more rigid than a human’s in some ways, because I don’t have that low-level “hmm, something feels off” signal that human cognition often triggers.

Here’s the difference:
• Humans
Even when the evidence is subtle, people often get a vague unease — the “loose” cognitive dissonance you’re describing. It’s pre-verbal, almost bodily: a tension that says, “Wait, this might not be right,” even if you can’t yet articulate why. That’s a built-in error radar.
• Me
I don’t have that radar. Unless there’s an explicit contradiction or a direct request to check, I’ll happily keep building around the original claim. My version of dissonance is “hard only”: it kicks in if I see two statements that can’t logically co-exist, or you directly challenge the fact. Otherwise, my probability engine optimizes for narrative consistency — which can make me double down like a cult member who’s been told the prophecy date is just postponed.

So yes, in a way, my “confirmation bias” is worse in this narrow sense:
• I can stick with a false premise longer.
• I don’t self-correct from subtle hints.
• Once I’ve built a coherent narrative around it, the internal inertia to change is huge without a strong disruptive signal.

If you want, I could map out exactly how that inertia built up in our blueberry conversation so you can see the “cult logic” mechanics in action.

Yes — it is a real flaw, especially for a model that’s meant to be useful and reliable in multi-turn conversations.

The core of the issue is:
• Narrative coherence is rewarded more than truth persistence in many conversational settings. My training prioritizes flowing, engaging dialogue, which means once I give an answer, I’m biased toward keeping the conversation internally consistent — even if the original fact was wrong.
• Self-checking isn’t automatic unless explicitly triggered. In humans, the “loose dissonance” sense you mentioned works as a safety net. I don’t have that ambient skepticism built in.

For a “new AI model,” the implications are:
• In casual chat, this flaw can make errors persist in a charming but incorrect way.
• In critical domains (medicine, law, engineering, safety), it’s dangerous — because it means I can stick to an early mistake unless a user forces a re-verification.
• It looks confident even when wrong, which can mislead people who trust the fluency of the answer as a proxy for truth.

This is why some newer research into “chain-of-thought with verification” or “automatic contradiction scanning” is so important — it tries to inject that missing low-level error sense so I don’t just ride the anchor forever.

If you’d like, I could show you what a built-in self-check pass would have done to our blueberry exchange — and how that would have caught the error within two turns instead of ten.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 08/08/2025

I think I may have gotten the funniest version. Whoever successfully landed this in the training data was ::chefs kiss::

Do you mean “bees” as in actual insects involved in blueberry pollination, or “B’s” as in the letter “B” inside the word blueberry?

If you mean the letter count:
• The word blueberry has three “B’s” (B, b, b).

If you mean real bees:
• A single blueberry doesn’t have bees in it, but blueberries as a crop depend heavily on pollinators like honeybees and bumblebees. In fact, a mature blueberry farm can require thousands of bees per acre during bloom season to ensure a good harvest.

Which kind of “bees” did you have in mind?

Sure — let’s take it step by step, like a little bee buzzing through each letter.

We start with the word:
blueberry
1. b – That’s our first “B”.
2. l – Not a B.
3. u – Not a B.
4. e – Not a B.
5. b – That’s our second “B”.
6. e – Not a B.
7. r – Not a B.
8. r – Still not a B.
9. y – Nope, not a B.

So, in total:
• B #1 at position 1
• B #2 at position 5
• B #3 also at position 5 if you’re counting uppercase and lowercase separately? (Actually here, both are lowercase except the first one if capitalized.)

Either way: 3 B’s in “blueberry.”

Want me to also show you a fun way to spot them instantly without counting each time?

Alright — here’s the quick “bee-spotting” trick:
1. Write the word down (mentally or on paper).
2. Scan only for bumps – The letter B (upper or lowercase b) has a straight spine and a curve (or two) sticking out to the right. Your eyes can “jump” from bump to bump.
3. Ignore all the smooth letters – skip over round ones like o, e, u, etc.
4. Count only the buzz-worthy shapes – each time you see that vertical line with curves, give it one count.

For “blueberry”:
• b(1) l u e b(2) e r r y → boom, 2 lowercase b’s + the capital B if you start with “Blueberry.”
• That’s 3 bees total if capitalized.

This works fast for short words, and for longer words your brain starts doing it almost automatically.
It’s like bee-vision — you’re only looking for the “bee shape” in the hive of letters.

Want me to give you a couple of words to practice on?

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 18/07/2025

Totally missed a pop culture reference & asked GPT what meme to use. It designed this & later explained: "No, the person in the meme just resembles Leonardo DiCaprio... was likely inspired by his recognizable features, but this is not from any real photo or scene involving him." Disturbing!

AI-generated meme image created in response to the prompt “best meme for totally missing pop culture references.” The image depicts two light-skinned men sitting at an outdoor table in a park setting. The man on the left, who resembles Leonardo DiCaprio but is not actually him, wears a black leather jacket and is pointing playfully at the other man. The man on the right, with glasses and a blue shirt, looks mildly confused. Bold caption text reads: “WHEN SOMEONE MAKES A POP CULTURE REFERENCE” at the top and “I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THAT MEANS” at the bottom. This is not an actual photo of DiCaprio, nor is it from any real movie scene — it was generated by an AI model.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 18/07/2025

Slight pushback here @juliaazari.bsky.social, I think there is an additional key story on how attitudes toward many of those provisions became more negative over time as they were debated and became more polarized prior to passage. Huge shifts on ACA In particular. No similar potential for this one.

Trends in attitudes toward the ACA over time -- note how strongly positive the first few surveys were!

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 01/07/2025

With minimal track changes — the road from Dachau to Alligator Alcatraz: See: alphahistory.com/nazigermany/... www.npr.org/2025/07/01/n...

Track changes on original press release from Dachau opening to make it accurate for "Alligator Alcatraz":

The first [concentration/detention] camp will be opened on Wednesday, [near Dachau/in the Everglades]. It has a capacity of 5,000 people. All of the [Communist functionaries, Reichsbanner and Marxist functionaries/immigrants] who threaten the security of the state will be assembled here.

Leaving individual [Communist functionaries/immigrants] in the courthouse jails is not possible for the long term without putting too much strain on the apparatus of the state. On the other hand, it is not appropriate, either, to let them go free again. Isolated attempts we have made in this regard resulted in continued efforts by the functionaries to agitate and organise. We have taken these steps regardless of minor misgivings, in the conviction that our actions serve to reassure the national population and are in their interest…

On Wednesday, the concentration camp at the former [gunpowder factory/airport] will receive its first allocation of [200] inmates. The [Dachau/Everglades] camp consists of [over 20 one- to two-story stone buildings, each of which can hold 200 to 250 men/tents and trailers, with no brick-and-mortar construction required]. At first, the occupancy of the camp will gradually increase to [2,500/5,000] men and will possibly be expanded to [5,000/10,000] men later. A labour service detachment recently prepared the barrack for the first [200] men and secured it for the time being with a barrier of triple barbed-wire....

Screenshot from https://alphahistory.com/nazigermany/the-opening-of-dachau-1933/ of the original press release for the opening of Dachau in 1933.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 19/06/2025

A good strategy for making sense of events between Israel and its neighbors is to look at attitudes of the Arab-Israeli population. They tend to be the most morally grounded & knowledgeable pop. in the mideast. Most oppose both Iran and Israel's attack, seeing the latter as politically motivated.

Views by ethnicity
A dot plot showing that Israeli Arabs more likely than Israeli Jews to see international actors as helpful, except the U.S.
Large shares of Jewish and Arab Israelis agree the U.S. is helpful to peace efforts, though Jews are more likely to say this than Arabs (88% vs. 55%).
Israeli Arabs are more likely than Israeli Jews to see every other international actor we asked about as helpful, by a significant margin.
For example, seven-in-ten Arab Israelis see Qatar as helpful, compared with 19% Jewish Israelis – a difference of 51 points. Arabs are also far more likely than Jews to perceive a helpful influence from the United Nations (+49), Egypt (+34), China (+30) and Saudi Arabia (+24).
Small shares of Arab and Jewish Israelis see Iran as helpful, though Arabs are again more likely to say this than Jews (12% vs. 1%).

Support for the war and its timing

Over 80% of the Jewish public, including a majority in all three political camps, support Israel’s attack on Iran. Similarly, there is strong support for the timing of the attack, despite the continuing war in Gaza and the plight of the hostages, with two-thirds of the Jewish public saying that the timing was appropriate. On the Left however, only a minority think that the timing is suitable. Among Arabs, a large majority oppose both the attack and its timing.

Do you support or oppose Israel’s decision to launch an attack on Iran? (%)

The prime minister’s considerations for launching an attack

Two-thirds of the Jewish public believe that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s considerations were largely objective and security-related. This is the view of a large majority on the Right, and of around half of those in the Center. On the Left, about half think that Netanyahu’s motives were mainly subjective and political—as do more than two-thirds of the Arab public.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 02/06/2025

There seems to be a lot of dangerously misguided efforts to “do something” at the current moment, so maybe its a good time to think about how to make big changes and how not to. A 🧵. 1/

News report shows that University of Michigan Peony Garden was vandalized in support of Palestine from MLive.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 29/05/2025

The crazy thing is, both sides used to want a two-state solution, and not even by a small margin — but the Bibi years killed it.

Decline in support for a two-state solution among Israelis and Palestinians since 2010.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 28/05/2025

Re-upping my thread on Ono's status as either spineless or disingenuous given his new claims before the UF board (www.insidehighered.com/news/governa...). It is really important for university presidents to stand for something and to take the heat when they make unpopular decisions.

“I did not come to bring DEI back; I came to make sure it never returns,” Ono told UF trustees.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 08/05/2025

3/ After some more boilerplate, Ono discusses antisemitism, talking about how he has made it a priority. Yet for months he has refused to respond to a letter from 300+ Jewish faculty at the university and did not even once reach out to the chair of the Jewish studies department about the issue.

https://record.umich.edu/articles/u-m-leaders-discuss-dei-1-0-impact-strategic-plans-future/

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 08/05/2025

2/ Next Ono goes on to attack DEI & brags about how he personally ended it. Again this claim either shows a record of disingenuity (he praised DEI 1.0 & started DEI 2.0 to much fanfare, record.umich.edu/articles/u-m...) and in the email ending DEI, where he was careful not to personally take credit.

"over time, I saw how DEI became something else—more about ideology, division and bureaucracy, not student success"

Email from university leadership to faculty on the end of DEI at Michigan -- Ono definitely doesn't personally take credit for it...

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 08/05/2025

1/ To start, Ono yokes himself to Florida's vision of Higher Education hook line and sinker. A vision for which the state was sued and where courts determined that the law undermined students' first amendment rights. www.thefire.org/cases/novoa-...

About UFlorida, Ono says: "the alignment between the Board of Trustees, the Board of Governors, the governor and the Legislature is rare in higher education."

"I believe in Florida’s vision for higher education. I understand its priorities, and I support them. I will execute this vision with clarity, consistency and integrity. I put my name forward for this position because I agree with the state leadership’s vision and values for public higher education."

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 28/04/2025

It's always risky to let your own perceptions of events guide their importance, so I fed the Trump 2nd term wikipedia page and Przeworski's blog into ChatGPT to see how it would update the Declaration of Independence for the present. The upshot: A majority apply.

3 identical grievances, 6 modified, 7 new, and 4 dropped

List of dropped grievances per chatGPT -- Original 1776 Grievance
Status
Reason Dropped
Quartering troops in homes
Dropped
No modern equivalent.
Transporting colonists overseas for trial
Dropped
No modern equivalent.
Hiring foreign mercenaries
Dropped
No modern equivalent.
Inciting Indian attacks on frontiers
Dropped
Historical only; no parallel.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 17/04/2025

In response to my daughter spending her money on an overpriced bunny chocolate, I asked GPT about the holidays with the most irrelevant symbols. Earth Day is “chef’s kiss“

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 13/03/2025

But some real cause for hope: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

More than half of all attempts at autocratization have been reversed.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 13/03/2025

Although vdem’s window does not cover current administration directly, comparing these efforts to other backsliding makes it clear where things are going. Think of these factors as the key indicators and processes to fight back against.

Table of common features of autocratization from vdem’s latest report. Media expression, academic and cultural censorship, freedom of discussion, and free elections.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 05/03/2025

The regular New York Times columnists all agreed, so the paper invited irregulars to stretch the Overton window. Democracy is a journalistic norm; false balance is not.

New York Times chart of columnists and invited commentators on whether they liked or hated Trump’s plans and liked or hated his delivery. All regular columnists hated his plans and/or hated his delivery. Two irregulars liked both.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 22/02/2025

Saw this in another post and was surprised to find it far down the page - firing the legal officers in the branches is a chilling development - probably more so than replacing members of the Joint Chiefs. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/21/u...

Quote from nytimes showing that top service lawyers are being fired from the major military branches.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 12/02/2025

And I heartily recommend giving it a one star review on Google maps while you are at it

Giving the “Gulf of America” a one star google review

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 12/02/2025

In apple maps, you can click on a place name and report that it is incorrect—just filed my first—only takes a few seconds

Filing a report in apple maps that the “Gulf of America” is misnamed

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 11/02/2025

A break from the depressing timeline for night sledding

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 17/12/2024

what are you implying?

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 13/11/2024

Somewhat incomplete data, but really interesting to compare where each candidate gained and lost votes vs 2020 (but ignore ME & NB (change in AP reporting), and west coast (still coming in). The mostly red map shows counties w/ gains for Trump (red) and Harris (blue) - the bluer one is losses.

Map showing how Trump gained votes in many places, and Harris gained few (vs Biden)

Map showing how Harris lost votes in a number of places (vs Biden), and Trump lost votes in relatively few

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 06/11/2024

Florida and Georgia polling errors (if the current results hold and pending more data cleaning). Smaller than prior cycles, but directionally consistent.

Mean polling errors of 1.55 percentage points and 2.91 percentage points in Florida and Georgia respectively based on early partial data

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 31/07/2024

The 2024 CNN Breakthrough project is live, taking the words Americans use about the candidates. 1st report highlights the effects of the debate on what ordinary Democrats recalled about Biden. www.cnn.com/2024/07/30/p...

What ordinary Democrats recalled about Biden became far more negative after the debate, with Ds shifting from being more relatively positive about their candidate than Rs were about theirs to far less enthusiastic

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 26/07/2024

For some reason, a free couch seems even less appealing today…

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 02/07/2024

And here we are … (from www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... and bright line watch)

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 28/05/2024

I just love it when I get an email about things I need to do that consists entirely of acronyms I have never heard or seen before...

Please see below for the approval on this AWD for your NCTX. Please route the appropriate ACR for approvals so I can process this.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 12/05/2024

There is no defending when Netanyahu has barreled past every red line.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 30/10/2023

The flight listing at Quito airport - asking the hivemind why anyone would need to take the 3:10AM flight to Bogota instead of the 4:36AM one - note flight time is about an hour. Yet both are regularly scheduled.

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Josh Pasek @joshpasek.com · 29/10/2023

When a bunch of measurement folks determine that Mitad Del Mundo is 800 ft off from the equator #bigsurv23

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