thehill.com
Trump risks losing ground with voters on the economy
The anxiety stemming from President Trump’s tariffs is opening him up to new vulnerabilities on an issue that has long been seen as one of his strengths: his handling of the economy.
Polls released over the last several days have shown growing voter opposition to Trump’s move to impose steep tariffs on the rest of the world.
Though the situation is fluid and voter sentiment could change, the numbers suggest the president has found himself in new, more volatile political territory that has the potential to damage him and the rest of his party heading into the midterms.
“Trump's entire theory of reelection was, ‘I'm a businessman, I'm going to tackle the soaring costs and make it better for you,’” said Democratic strategist Joe Caiazzo. “We're doing the opposite of that.”
The economy and inflation proved to be one of Democrats’ weak spots in the 2024 presidential election. While the Biden administration and Vice President Harris’s campaign touted how much inflation had dropped from its 2022 peak and acknowledged it still had progress to make, many voters viewed the state of the economy poorly. Trump overwhelmingly won those voters.
Polls repeatedly showed ahead of and after Election Day that the economy was the most important issue on voters’ minds, and one exit poll from December found that the economy was the top deciding factor in favor of Trump for voters in the seven main battleground states that ultimately all voted for him.
Trump pledged to lower prices on “Day 1,” but his approval rating overall and on the economy has ticked down as inflation has mostly remained roughly the same, above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent goal. Consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level in two years in the University of Michigan’s benchmark survey last month.
This was all before Trump unveiled his wide-ranging tariffs last week, which have rattled markets for days. The plan imposes a 10 percent baseline tariff on imports from all foreign countries and higher rates for about 60 countries deemed “worst offenders” on trade barriers.
Democrats said Trump’s popularity starting to drop after taking office was natural to some extent, as it happens for all presidents. But they say his economic decisions are to blame for accelerating it.
Caiazzo said the tariffs will be “monumentally toxic” to the administration, giving Democrats an opening to tap into voters’ frustration with prices expected to rise as a result.
“Basically, what the Trump administration, Trump Republicans are proposing to the American people, it's very simple,” he said. “It's an economy in which things cost much more.”
Multiple polls have shown declining support for Trump’s policies over the past week, leading up to and following Trump’s April 2 announcement, which he called “Liberation Day.”
A Wall Street Journal poll released Friday found 52 percent disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared to 44 percent who approve. The disapproval is 12 points higher than the 40 percent who said in October that they had an unfavorable view of Trump’s economic plans.
Pollsters found 54 percent said they oppose placing tariffs on imported goods, while the percentage who said tariffs will raise prices on consumer products rose from 68 percent in January to three quarters in March.
A poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research showed Trump maintaining his strength on immigration, with half of U.S. adults saying they approve of his handling of the issue. But 60 percent said they disapprove of his handling of trade negotiations with other countries, and nearly that amount said the same about his overall handling of the economy.
A CBS News/YouGov poll showed 64 percent of adults said Trump is spending not enough time focused on lowering prices and 55 percent said he’s spending too much time on imposing tariffs.
The polling came shortly before the stock market experienced a whirlwind on Monday, jumping briefly following rumors that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on implementation of the tariffs. But after the White House dismissed those headlines as “fake news,” the stocks moved back into the negative territory.
The market finished the day with mixed results, as some countries signaled openness to negotiations with Trump to end the tariffs.
“He has said, we're going to suffer, and we just got to tough through because at the end, it will pay off,” said Democratic strategist Crimson Macdonald. “But if I know anything as a non-economist, just as an American, the stock market is our signal... and you don't sell off like this if you have hope for the future.”
Trump has framed his moves as standing up for Americans being taken advantage of by other countries. He has acknowledged that the country could feel “some pain” from a trade war but maintained that it is in the long-term interest.
“President Donald J. Trump is finally doing what politicians have refused to do for decades — fighting back against the one-sided war waged on American workers,” the White House said in a release Monday. “As he puts into action his bold plan to reverse the decades of globalization that has decimated our industrial base, President Trump is putting the Forgotten Men and Women of America first.”
It pointed to unions like United Auto Workers and the Steel Manufacturers Association in addition to everyday Americans who have declared their support for Trump’s tariffs.
MacDonald said the shift in opinion presents an opening for Democrats, but she’s not confident the party is in a position to regain those supporters. While polls have shown dropping support for Trump, they have also shown record low approval of the Democratic Party as a whole.
She said a liberal populist message like that of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who has been traveling the country to share his views pushing back against Trump, may resonate best with voters who are disenchanted with the current president.
“I think that the Bernie Sanders’s message is going to resonate with those independents because now it's not just one side that's angry and riled up,” she said.
But Republicans urged caution with being too quick to judge how the tariffs will play politically, given that the midterms aren’t until next year and the tariffs were just implemented.
Republican strategist Brian Seitchik said Trump has been consistent on his tariff policy.
“Certainly, the last few days have been very volatile and disruptive, and people who track their stock portfolio on a daily basis are trying to avoid a heart attack,” he said. “But Trump has made clear that we have to take a long-term approach to do this. And if you look at other economies and other countries that have gone fundamental shifts, it takes time.”
He said he expects the public’s judgement on the tariffs will be part of the “equation” for how the country votes in the midterms, as “virtually every American now knows more about tariffs than they did a week ago.” He said Trump must make clear why the tariffs are necessary, noting that markets “by definition” don’t like uncertainty and a “jolt” to the system.
“It's certainly difficult to try to ascribe a specific timeline to when this is going to be successful,” Seitchik said. “So that's a precarious place to go, but Trump just has to make clear to Americans that in at least in the medium and long run, this is going to make their lives better.”
