iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Logic-checking segues seamlessly into logic-based corrections that explain misleading techniques in misinformation. In 2017, I published research finding that logic-based corrections neutralise climate misinformation across the political spectrum: it's depolarizing sks.to/inoculation

110

One of the most significant findings was that 91% of the claims we analysed contained hidden premises with fallacies. Almost all of misinformation tries to hide how they mislead. This underscores the importance of logic-checking as an essential tool in countering misinformation.

151

We also identified the most common fallacies in climate misinformation. Slothful induction and cherry picking were the most common, followed by oversimplification and misrepresentation. Single cause (a form of oversimplification) was fifth.

141

The result was a detailed summary of climate myths, how we deconstructed them, the hidden premises in each myth, and the logical fallacies in each myth - this table is intended as a resource for anyone wishing to write debunkings of climate myths that use the fact-myth-fallacy format.

table summarising fallacies in each climate myth

121

We also did some conceptual work clarifying the differences between some fallacies that seemed difficult to distinguish. E.g., cherry picking from slothful induction, and misrepresentation from oversimplification. Wendy Cook created this lovely infographic for the paper.

Infographic providing conceptual distinctions between fallacies

131

For this new paper, we expanded the 2018 flowchart to make it more practical, working with a variety of real-world misinformation. Note: this work was initially done as an Honours project by Ruby Flack, then expanded into a full paper with the larger team of coauthors.

Expanded flowchart for deconstructing misinformation

120

In 2018, I worked with critical thinking philosophers to develop a step-by-step methodology for logic-checking. It involves deconstructing claims into an argument structure (premises & a conclusion), check for hidden premises, then examine each premise for logical fallacies sks.to/criticalclim...

Flowchart for deconstructing misinformation

121

We propose a complement (not a replacement) to fact-checking: logic-checking, or identifying the presence of logical fallacies. This is another way of tagging arguments as misleading and can address forms of misinformation that fact-checking struggle with (there's another benefit I'll come to later)

130

We make the argument that there are limits to fact-checking which find policy claims, conspiracy theories, & ad hominem attacks challenging to fact-check. In particular, fact-checking struggles with arguments that contain hidden premises or unstated assumptions (which are common in misinformation).

130

We started with the taxonomy of contrarian claims about climate change from our 2021 paper (sks.to/cardspaper). In our 2021 paper, we didn't make any judgements about whether the claims were misleading or not - that's what this new research set out to do.

141

Stephan Lewandowsky @lewan.uk · 23/04/2026

Just published a new paper in Environmental Communication with interdisciplinary team where we identified the logical fallacies in a comprehensive taxonomy of climate myths. Paper (paywalled) is at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10...., free pre-press manuscript is at sks.to/deconstructc...

32710

Reposted by John Cook

It has been nearly a year since we released our Anti-Autocracy Handbook sks.to/autocracy. Our team of authors includes @karmaos.bsky.social @drsunitasah Prof Christina Pagel Renee DiResta Philipp Markolin John Cook 1/5

13113

John Cook @johnfocook.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Watched movie Einstein & Eddington today. Eddington (David Tennant) empirically confirms theory of general relativity by Einstein (Andy Serkis). At end, Eddington gives speech about time being relative. Wife comments to me "he's right, for you the movie was 5 minutes long, for me it was 5 hours."

0120

Reposted by John Cook

Skeptical Science @skepticalscience.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

It was a big team effort to get the "SkS Experiment" set up, run it and then turn it into published research! @johnfocook.bsky.social, @baerbelw.bsky.social, @collinmaessen.bsky.social, Timo Lubitz, Doug Bostrom & @dananuccitelli.bsky.social Here is the link again: gc.copernicus.org/articles/9/1...

gc.copernicus.org

041

We're now crowd-funding the journal fee for our research paper (€1,215) in the same way we crowd-funded our 97% consensus paper back in 2013. More details on how to donate at skepticalscience.com/published-re...

120

We're looking to address these issues in a major update of the Skeptical Science website later this year. One major innovation is incorporating fallacy explanations in our rebuttals, building that into the database format. A much needed revamp given the website design hasn't been updated since 2007!

For example, the facts could have been explained clearer & simpler (following the old mantra: fight sticky myths with stickier facts). Also, few of the rebuttals explained the logical fallacies committed by the myth - a debunking approach recommended by the Debunking Handbook sks.to/db2020

The truth sandwich format for debunking: fact, myth, fallacy, fact

However, we were disturbed to see belief in climate facts go down for some participants as well, not something we wanted to see. We looked at the worst performing rebuttals and identified some places where they could have been written better.

120

The strongest result from our data was that the website had its biggest effect in improving climate perceptions among climate dismissives (strongly disagreed with climate facts/strongly agreed with climate myths). Belief in climate myths overall went down.

Change in accuracy among participants at varying pre-rebuttal values (positive value means increase in accuracy).

150

6261 people filled out both the pre-rebuttal and post-rebuttal form from Nov 2021 to Jul 2025. The first thing that jumped out at us was that nearly half of visitors strongly agreed with the fact or strongly disagreed with the myth. We think most SkS visitors come to arm themselves with info.

Accuracy of climate perceptions of SkS visitors when they first arrive at the site.

110

The first challenge was collecting live data. Readers who came directly to a Skeptical Science rebuttal via google were asked how much they agreed with either a climate fact or myth. Then if they read all the way down to the end of the rebuttal, they received the same survey.

110

Quantifying the impact of Skeptical Science rebuttals in reducing climate misperceptions

We just published a paper in Geoscience Communication where we measure the impact of reading climate myth rebuttals at bsky.app/profile/skep... - technically challenging research with some nuanced, complex results gc.copernicus.org/articles/9/1...

gc.copernicus.org

Abstract. Misinformation about climate change leads to societal damage in a number of ways and consequently, resources are required to support interventions that counter their influence. Aiming to mee...

1136

John Cook @johnfocook.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

Uber-Tolkien nerd @colbertlateshow.bsky.social (which I've always admired him for) disses us for taking Lord of the Rings too seriously. Fair comment but we regret nothing! youtu.be/MMueOnpeAVA?...

youtu.be

Meanwhile... Middle Earth Weather Report | Clooney's Near-Beer | Why Cats Land On Their Feet

YouTube video by The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

041

John Cook @johnfocook.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

Had a chaotic & fun conversation with Joy Radio about our paper on building climate models of fantasy worlds. I accidentally insulted John Saffron for only reading The Hobbit but otherwise, think it went ok :-| joy.org.au/saturdaymaga...

joy.org.au

Sat, 21st March, 2026: John Cook, Snr Research Fellow, School of Psychological Sciences, MelbUni; Do Middle‑earth and Westeros Make Sense?

John Cook, Snr Research Fellow, School of Psychological Sciences, MelbUni; Do Middle‑earth and Westeros Make Sense?

041

Taking a similar approach, I created a spreadsheet of the characters' journey. I also added climate data along the way - temperature, precipitation, biome, season (arcing into winter as the story gets dire, trending to spring at the end). Then used that to add immersive details to the story.

Spreadsheet of climate data for every step of the characters' journey.

040

In fact, I was inspired by Tolkien's writing approach. He created detailed tables for each character in Lord of the Rings, detailed where they were on each day of the story, describing environmental details like moon phases and wind direction.

150

Why go to all this trouble? First, because it's fun & I'm an uber-nerd. But more importantly, verisimilitude & immersion are crucial to compelling stories (particularly fantasy). Tolkien himself was meticulous in crafting a detailed, intricate world which has captivated millions of readers.

I was especially drawn to the simulation of biomes - which parts of the world are forest, grasslands, desert, etc. The biome maps became my guide in designing a map for the fantasy world (called Terrios).

Top figure: simulated biomes of Terrios. Bottom figure: fantasy map of Terrios.

150

Months passed, then Alex came back with the results of the climate model simulation - temperature, precipitation, wind strength & direction, humidity, sea ice, the weather patterns of the entire world all year around. Next level world-building!

Bristol climate scientist Alex Farnsworth took it on. He had a small request - provide a digital elevation map of the entire planet providing the elevation of every point of land (including ocean ocean). Easy! So I gave them this (well, I had to write R code to convert the PNG into a CSV)

Digital elevation map of the fantasy world Terrios

130

Since then Dan Lunt also collaborated with his Bristol colleagues to climate model the worlds of Westeros (Game of Thrones), Arrakis (Dune), and the world of the Wheel of Time. So when I began work on a climate fiction set in a fantasy world, I reached out to them asking if they'd model my world.

170

UQx DENIAL101x The Climate of Middle Earth - Part 1

This began years ago when I interviewed Dan Lunt from the University of Bristol about his climate model of Middle-earth (from Lord of the Rings). I released the interview as a trilogy of videos because, of course a trilogy! youtu.be/jJNkd5g6oxI?...

youtu.be

YouTube video by UQx Denial101x Making Sense of Climate Science Denial

181