Reposted by Joel DyerThomas House @tah-sci.com · 03/08/2025There can be no better example of something deeply wrong with this country's national culture than the normalisation of the description of a soggy pre-packaged sandwich as a "main". 153
Joel Dyer @joelnmdyer.bsky.social · 26/06/2025Check out the paper below, or come chat to us in Vancouver for more details! Paper: lnkd.in/eHjtXYbx #AI4Science #Bayes #ICML #simulation 010
Joel Dyer @joelnmdyer.bsky.social · 26/06/2025We propose and compare two ways to learn RPs for arbitrary simulation models using neural mutual information estimators, showing that these approaches can accurately recover known reference priors and provide a way to subsequently perform neural simulation-based Bayesian inference *for free*. 110
Joel Dyer @joelnmdyer.bsky.social · 26/06/2025Finding reference priors is difficult, however – this is especially true for simulation models, which are used across scientific domains (particle physics simulators in physics, agent-based models in economics, etc.). 120
Joel Dyer @joelnmdyer.bsky.social · 26/06/2025This is measured by a KL divergence between the posterior and prior. The idea is that these priors provide a means to conduct prior sensitivity analyses, allowing modellers to measure how much prior information is incorporated into their Bayesian procedures through the prior distribution they chose. 110
Joel Dyer @joelnmdyer.bsky.social · 26/06/2025RPs were developed as one possible way to formalise the notion of “minimal prior information” in Bayesian inference, and are priors that maximise the expected information to be gained from data about the model’s parameters. 110
Joel Dyer @joelnmdyer.bsky.social · 26/06/2025We’ve got a new paper out on “Learning Likelihood-free Reference Priors”, forthcoming at #ICML2025. In this paper, we consider how reference priors (RPs) can be constructed for arbitrary simulation models. 🧵 281
Reposted by Joel Dyerriccardo @rmassidda.it · 19/05/2025🔥 Got a great work on causal representation learning, abstraction, high-dimensional discovery, or other hot topics in causality? 🇧🇷 Don’t miss your chance to present in Rio at the CAR Workshop at #UAI2025! ⏰ Deadline is in 1 week – May 26! 🌐 sites.google.com/view/car-25/sites.google.comCARCausal Abstractions and RepresentationsWorkshop @ UAI 2025July 25th 2025, Rio de Janeiro 🇧🇷 0157
Reposted by Joel DyerEugene Vinitsky 🍒 @eugenevinitsky.bsky.social · 19/05/2025Going to the hospital because I broke my wrist smashing the endorse button: www.understandingai.org/p/i-got-fool...understandingai.orgI got fooled by AI-for-science hype—here's what it taught meI used AI in my plasma physics research and it didn’t go the way I expected. 611929
Reposted by Joel DyerTyler, from the Internet (Haunted) @tylerfromtheinternet.com · 15/05/2025Lmao 222560657
Reposted by Joel DyerJanelle Shane @janelleshane.com · 13/04/20251. LLM-generated code tries to run code from online software packages. Which is normal but 2. The packages don’t exist. Which would normally cause an error but 3. Nefarious people have made malware under the package names that LLMs make up most often. So 4. Now the LLM code points to malware. 11978743580
Reposted by Joel DyerCompSciOxford @compscioxford.bsky.social · 03/04/2025Professor Nigel Shadbolt has shared his thoughts on the potential risks of AI-powered teddy bears that use AI to converse with children. He suggested that they 'could be used to survey, they could be used to appropriate and harvest data from the child.' www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03...telegraph.co.ukAI teddies could ‘harvest data from your children’Sir Nigel Shadbolt, a leading researcher, has raised concerns about ‘smart toys’ 111
Reposted by Joel DyerMencap @mencap.org.uk · 28/03/20251/1🗣️People with a learning disability die up to 20 years younger than the general population, even though this could be avoided with the right healthcare. 289
Reposted by Joel DyerInstitute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford @inetoxford.bsky.social · 21/03/2025🆕 Agent Based Modelling Comes of Age @doynefarmer.bsky.social believes creating economic models that can make useful predictions may be the most important problem in economics today 🔖We summarise 3 of 2025's ground breaking papers 🔗https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/agent-based-modelling-comes-of-ageinet.ox.ac.ukAgent Based Modelling Comes of AgeOur recently published research demonstrates how ABMs is 'coming of age' cross three areas: central banking, economics and finance, and AI. 22711
Reposted by Joel DyerFrançois-Xavier Briol @fxbriol.bsky.social · 28/01/2025Excited to announce we are organising a two-day workshop on 'Bayesian Computation and Inference in Misspecified Models' at BayesComp 2025! Registrations are now open, with a very nice lineup of speakers to be announced soon! bayescomp2025.sg @isba-bayesian.bsky.socialbayescomp2025.sgBayes Comp 2025 0383
Reposted by Joel DyerMencap @mencap.org.uk · 27/01/2025We’re overwhelmed by all the generous donations from Traitors fans after hearing Alexander Dragonetti’s story! 🎉 You’d wanted to know how much has been raised... #TheTraitors #AlexanderDragonetti 524252
Reposted by Joel DyerVincent Fortuin @vincefort.eurosky.social · 24/01/2025Definitely consider submitting your work to UAI, it's fantastic conference! And while you're at it, why not submit a shorter version to the AABI workshop track (deadline Feb 7)? 😉 0194
Reposted by Joel DyerAleksander Molak @alxndrmlk.bsky.social · 24/01/2025#UAI is one of the best general conferences for causal researchers Submission deadline: Feb 10 #CausalSky 084
Reposted by Joel DyerLionel @spiindoctor.bsky.social · 12/11/2024✨I made a starter pack for complexity scientists on this platform.✨ go.bsky.app/QzMwdrL 124915
Reposted by Joel DyerYorgos @yfelekis.bsky.social · 07/12/2024Next week will be ✈️to @neuripsconf.bsky.social together with @joelnmdyer.bsky.social and Nick Bishop to present our work on "Interventionally Consistent Surrogates for Complex Simulation Models". Details 👇 171
Joel Dyer @joelnmdyer.bsky.social · 04/12/2024@inetoxford.bsky.social @inet-complexity.bsky.social @compscioxford.bsky.social #causal #simulation #Bayes 150
Reposted by Joel DyerEwan Colman @ewancolman.bsky.social · 29/11/20242 weeks left to apply for this PhD position (link at end of thread) #EpiSky #IDSky 031
Joel Dyer @joelnmdyer.bsky.social · 27/11/20242) “Model Exploration through Marginal Likelihood Entropy Maximisation”, accepted at the #NeurIPS2024 D3S3 Workshop. We propose a method for exploring the behaviours a (differentiable) simulator can generate – useful for understanding your mechanistic model! openreview.net/pdf?id=dPszK... (3/3)openreview.net 130
Joel Dyer @joelnmdyer.bsky.social · 27/11/2024This provides decision- and policy-makers with a way to reduce the cost of running simulations when designing policies and interventions. Useful in time-critical settings, such as emerging pandemics! (2/3) 130
Joel Dyer @joelnmdyer.bsky.social · 27/11/2024See you at #NeurIPS2024! We’ll present two papers: 1) “Interventionally Consistent Surrogates for Complex Simulation Models”. Here, we propose a method for learning causal abstractions (“interventionally consistent surrogates”) of complex simulation models! openreview.net/pdf?id=UtTjg... (1/3)openreview.net 182
Reposted by Joel DyerINET Complexity Economics @inet-complexity.bsky.social · 01/10/2024New paper on Forecasting with Agent-Based Models from Sam Wiese, Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa, @joelnmdyer.bsky.social, @j0mrn.bsky.social, Marco Pangallo, Francois Lafond, John Muellbauer, Ani Calinescu, @doynefarmer.bsky.social #Complexity #EconSky www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...inet.ox.ac.ukNo. 2024-06 - Forecasting Macroeconomic Dynamics using a Calibrated…In the last few years, economic agent-based models have made the transition from qualitative models calibrated to match stylised facts to quantitative… 0145
Reposted by Joel DyerINET Complexity Economics @inet-complexity.bsky.social · 04/11/2024Congratulations to @joelnmdyer.bsky.social for winning best paper at the 40th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, for his work on approximate Bayesian inference methods for simulation models. www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/researc...inet.ox.ac.ukResearcher wins best paper award for work on approximate Bayesian…It seeks to aid widespread adoption of simulators in real-world modelling and decision-making scenarios, by making approximate Bayesian inference more… 052
Joel Dyer @joelnmdyer.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Our BlackBIRDS python package implements inference methods for differentiable simulators in PyTorch, and features heavily in the tutorial. You can play with it yourself by installing from pypi.org/project/blac..., and check out an example use case at github.com/joelnmdyer/g....pypi.orgblackbirdsBlack-Box Inference foR Differentiable Simulators. 000
Joel Dyer @joelnmdyer.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Our group recently delivered a tutorial on building & calibrating differentiable agent-based models of financial systems at the 4th International Conference on AI in Finance #ICAIF2024! Notebooks & materials are freely available on our tutorial website: largeagentcollider.github.io/icaif_tutori....largeagentcollider.github.io A (nearly) no-CSS, fast, minimalist Jekyll theme. 161
Reposted by Joel DyerINET Complexity Economics @inet-complexity.bsky.social · 30/11/2023Want to know more about gradient-assisted calibration for financial agent-based models? Then we have the perfect paper for you fresh from ICAIF '23 dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/... You can also watch Joel Dyer's related talk on @inetoxford.bsky.social's YouTube account www.youtube.com/watch?v=ria0...youtube.comJoel Dyer Variational Bayesian Inference for Agent based Models 23Nov2023 031