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James McCaw

@jmccaw.bsky.social
269 followers 76 following 9 posts

Professor in Mathematical Biology and Epidemiology and Australian Research Council Laureate Fellow. I investigate the determinants and impacts of infectious diseases. Otherwise, find me in outdoors cycling, running, hiking, adventuring

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Reposted by James McCaw
Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
BMJ investigation into FDA vaccine safety surveillance: what it shows and what it does not diplomaticimmunity.blog/bmj-fda-vacc...
diplomaticimmunity.blog
What the BMJ Investigation Reveals About FDA Vaccine Safety Surveillance
A BMJ investigation exposed a real flaw in FDA COVID-19 vaccine safety surveillance. Here is what it means for VAERS, myocarditis, masking, causation and trust.
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James McCaw @jmccaw.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Two new continuing (i.e., tenured) positions in applied and pure/applied mathematics here at University of Melbourne: unimelb.wd105.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UoM_Ex..., and unimelb.wd105.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UoM_Ex.... Come and join our wonderful school! Applications close 6th October.
unimelb.wd105.myworkdayjobs.com
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 17/08/2026
7. It's yet another thing that AI has stolen away from the current generation of scientists. Yet again, AI proves to be an anti-egalitarian force in that these abuses force us to abandon the Mertonian norm of universalism for increased reliance on credentials, reputation, and personal connections.
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IDDjobs @iddjobs.org · 14/08/2026
CLOSING SOON: PhD position (Melbourne, Australia) Mechanistic modelling of the epidemic dynamics of vector-borne zoonotic diseases in Australia with Oliver Eales, Freya Shearer, Marya Potorek at University of Melbourne More details: iddjobs.org/jobs/2561
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 05/08/2026
Yep. Yesterday JSTOR was unreachable. Aaron Swartz was hounded to death for far less.
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Ian M. Mackay, PhD (he/him) 🦠🤧🧬📑🦟🧀 @mackayim.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
"While we can't predict what exactly will happen from now with the virus's spread, any wishful thinking it wouldn't establish in local birds is past." www.abc.net.au/news/science...
abc.net.au
Now bird flu has hit seagulls a 'super-spreader' event is more likely
Unlike other birds detected with the virus so far in Australia, seagulls travel beyond coastal environments to more urban and inland areas too.
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Reposted by James McCaw
Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 31/07/2026
Nature did a short piece on our preprint about how LLMs will affect the practice of science; my more detailed thread is below.
nature.com
Scientists using LLMs will ‘do more, less well’, modelling study predicts
Research suggests that the combination of incentives to publish and the use of large language models will lead to more papers, but they will be less refined.
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Ian M. Mackay, PhD (he/him) 🦠🤧🧬📑🦟🧀 @mackayim.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
"An individual’s protection against infection with a specific strain is determined by their entire infection history" From the @jmccaw.bsky.social group in 2025 -#flu is such a complex beast journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol...
journals.plos.org
How immunity shapes the long-term dynamics of influenza H3N2
Author summary Influenza A H3N2 causes yearly epidemics in temperate regions causing substantial mortality and morbidity, particularly in older individuals. Infection with influenza elicits an immune ...
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Rob Hyndman @robjhyndman.com · 29/07/2026
We're hiring in statistics, econometrics, ML, statistical computing, data vis, etc. It's a great place to work, which is why I've been here for more than 30 years! Details at bit.ly/3Tld8UV. Level is roughly equivalent to Assistant/Associate Prof in North America. #stats #datascience #rstats
careers.pageuppeople.com
Job Search
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Thomas House @tah-sci.com · 23/07/2026
I don't know if the story about OpenAI going rogue and becoming a hacker is real or just hype but like most stories about AI no-one comes out of it looking like someone who should have control of trillions of dollars.
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Dr Edward Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
1/ 📣 New Perspectives article 📣 📄 How understanding the diversity of perspectives & systems in governments can increase the impact of scientific research. ✍️ Co-authors from 14 countries share experiences as infectious disease modellers during COVID-19 pandemic to unravel science-policy interface.
doi.org
How understanding the diversity of perspectives and systems in governments can increase the impact of scientific research - Communications Health
Communications Health - How understanding the diversity of perspectives and systems in governments can increase the impact of scientific research
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Stephen Kissler @skissler.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Was an honor to get to play a small role in this — congrats @hadley-liza.bsky.social on a really nice article on strengthening communication between scientists and policymakers! www.nature.com/articles/s44...
nature.com
How understanding the diversity of perspectives and systems in governments can increase the impact of scientific research - Communications Health
Communications Health - How understanding the diversity of perspectives and systems in governments can increase the impact of scientific research
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Reposted by James McCaw
Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) @gs-idd.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
⏳ IDD Connect - Asia | 1 day to go | 08 July 2026 | 12:30:13:30 Indian Standard Time 👥 Hear from experts from across the continent to show how modelling is shaping public health decision-making in Asia. 🔗 Zoom link | Time zone guide: www.gsidd.org/events #IDsky #EpiSky #PublicHealth #OneHealth 🧪
gsidd.org
Events | GSIDD
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Esther Rockett 🚀 @estherrockett.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
“Humanitarian group Red Crescent told ABC NEWS Verify that, generally speaking, it has observed an increase in online campaigns and entities claiming to conduct humanitarian work on the ground in Gaza.” Great reporting on an increasingly prevalent form of online scam www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07...
abc.net.au
She claims to be helping children around the world, but is it real?
Receiving millions of views online, the Lily Jay Foundation claims to help children across the world. She was even given an award for her work. But what is real and what is AI-generated? ABC NEWS Veri...
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IDDjobs @iddjobs.org · 03/07/2026
PhD position (Melbourne, Australia) Mechanistic modelling of the epidemic dynamics of vector-borne zoonotic diseases in Australia with Oliver Eales, Freya Shearer, Marya Potorek at University of Melbourne More details: iddjobs.org/jobs/2561
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Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) @gs-idd.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
1/ 📢 Next IDD Connect event is in partnership with the MIDSEA Network (Modelling Infectious Diseases in South East Asia) 🌏 Region: Asia 👥 Hear from experts from across the continent to show how modelling is shaping public health decision-making in Asia. #IDsky #EpiSky #PublicHealth #OneHealth 🧪
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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
On the destruction of New Zealand science peterkdearden.substack.com/p/on-the-des...
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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Yes
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 24/06/2026
"I recently had the opportunity to hear Bhattacharya in person during his visit to Purdue University. I expected to endure scientific ignorance, right-wing pandering and claims of victimisation, and I was not disappointed." @davidsanderssci.bsky.social in @timeshighered.bsky.social
timeshighereducation.com
The NIH director’s visit has only deepened my concerns about him
I expected scientific ignorance, right-wing pandering and victimisation claims from Jay Bhattacharya. I was not disappointed, says David Sanders
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 23/06/2026
ADA leaders were forcibly removed from their own meeting for sharing copies of an ADA OpEd critical of Jay Bhattacharya. Thanks to you it's now got >125,000 views. As CDC interim director, Jay also blocked publication of this paper because it showed that COVID vaccines work. You know what to do.
jamanetwork.com
Interim Estimated Effectiveness of 2025-2026 COVID-19 Vaccines in Adults
This case-control study estimates vaccine effectiveness of 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccines among adults with COVID-19–associated emergency department or urgent care encounters and COVID-19–associated hosp...
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Marya @maryapetry.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
And to understand what is required for good research, even if that student will never do it again. The process is an education in itself; it teaches the student to respect quality, peer-reviewed research because they have had a true glimpse at its demands.
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 23/06/2026
When I assign a research paper, it's not because I want an essay I can use to evaluate the student ex post. It's because I want the student to have the experience of going through the process of all of the above steps, perhaps iteratively, that is necessary to write a good research paper.
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 23/06/2026
No—blue books, in-class exams, locked down browsers, etc. won't fix this. Nothing will replace the research, reading, thinking, organizing, writing, and revising skills that students developed through the good old fashioned research essay that has been the core of higher ed for countless decades.
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 22/06/2026
"In some cases, the very same companies selling detection tools are also making apps that allow students to cheat, including by writing papers for them or rephrasing text written by others." Sylvester McMonkey McBean approves.
The sneeches with Sylvester McMonkey McBean raking in cash
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Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) @gs-idd.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
2/ Community Review of draft GSIDD Bylaws 🔍 The Founding Committee will review all input and use it to inform the final version. 🗳️ The final Bylaws document will be put to a vote and adopted in late 2026. 👥 We are grateful to everyone who takes the time to engage! /end
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Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) @gs-idd.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
1/ Community Review of draft GSIDD Bylaws 👐 Though the draft document has been shaped by months of discussion and careful thought by the GSIDD founding committee, it belongs to all of the GSIDD community. 🔗 Provide your feedback here: www.gsidd.org/bylaws #IDsky #EpiSky #PublicHealth #OneHealth 🧪
gsidd.org
ByLaws | GSIDD
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Thomas House @tah-sci.com · 16/06/2026
In general public outrage achieves little but it's impossible to feel anything but the white heat of fury that the World's first trillionaire may have contributed to this dreadful situation by cutting at the US Government. www.reuters.com/business/hea...
reuters.com
True scale of Congo Ebola outbreak still unknown one month in, responders say
One month after Ebola cases were confirmed in eastern Congo, its true scale remains unknown, with major data gaps muddying the picture and persistent, sometimes violent, community resistance hampering...
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Dr Edward Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
👇 Read about the latest updates from the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD; @gs-idd.bsky.social) 📄 Includes development of the draft of the society Bylaws and an invitation for input from the GSIDD community.
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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
We are hiring! Two Lecturer/Senior Lecturer (research+teaching) positions in the School of Maths & Stats, University of Canterbury ▶️One in Statistics, closes 15 July jobs.canterbury.ac.nz/jobdetails/a... ▶️One in Applied Maths, closes 21 July jobs.canterbury.ac.nz/jobdetails/a... Please share!
jobs.canterbury.ac.nz
Lecturer / Senior Lecturer in Statistics - University of Canterbury | Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha
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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Congrats Jen on this very well deserved honour
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samuel mehr @mehr.nz · 20/05/2026
tough to overstate how quickly science funding in New Zealand has been blown to pieces - on Friday the NZ govt straight up disbanded the Marsden fund (our version of the NSF) it'll be replaced by a 'transition fund' with less money and zero information, as of yet, about what it will support #nzpol
New transition fund provides continuity while backing bold ideas
Published: 14 May 2026

A streamlined Transition Research Fund has been announced for 2027, aligning science funding with national priorities and supporting a focus on outcomes that benefit New Zealand.

The fund was developed on advice from the newly established science funding decision-maker, Research Funding New Zealand. This new fund brings investigator-led research into a single fund with three funding mechanisms:

Talent Development supports future research leaders to build capability, test ideas and establish independent careers.
Projects enable bold, innovative research with strong potential to deliver meaningful benefits for New Zealand.
Programmes support ambitious, collaborative research tackling complex challenges and delivering transformational outcomes over a longer term.
It supports research from early discovery through to larger scale programmes with a focus on delivering impact for New Zealand, in line with national priorities for science, innovation and technology.

The Prime Minister's Science, Innovation and Technology Advisory Council recommended the following four priority areas for public investment:

Primary industries and the bioeconomy.
Technology for prosperity.
Environmental sustainability and resilience.
Healthy people and a thriving society.
Priorities will be confirmed in the Science, Investment Plan expected to be released mid-2026. 

The Transition Research Fund brings contestable funding which would have otherwise been delivered through future rounds of the Marsden and Endeavour funds into a single investigator-led research fund.

It will open for applications later this year.

The total first year investment in the Transition Research Fund in 2027 will be up to $84.4 million. The Transition Research Fund will invest up to $300 million over five years in total. 

Final funding decisions will be made by Research Funding New Zealand, with all funded projects showing clea…
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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
The true size of the DRC Ebola outbreak is uncertain. Imperial modelling team estimates that as of 17 May 400-800 cases had occurred, but can't rule out more than 1000. Great work by Anne Cori and team www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-i...
imperial.ac.uk
Report - Estimation of the size of the outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Report - Estimation of the size of the outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
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Casey Middleton, PhD @caseymiddleton.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
🚨 Disease modelers: Do you use empirical VE estimates interchangeably to inform vaccine effect parameters? Me too, and it’s distorting our predictions. VE estimates often do not align with model parameters. We discuss these pitfalls & solutions in our new preprint: arxiv.org/abs/2605.18571 🧵👇
arxiv.org
Incorporating vaccine effects into epidemiological models: common pitfalls and solutions
Incorporating vaccination into mathematical models appears deceptively simple: models integrate vaccine-derived protections, such as reduced susceptibility to infection, using parameters informed by e...
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Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) @gs-idd.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
1/ 📢 Join us for our next IDD Connect event, in partnership with the Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (CEMA)! 🌏 Region: Africa 💪 Theme: “Strengthening Infectious Disease Modelling in Africa”. #IDsky #EpiSky #PublicHealth #OneHealth 🧪
1/ 📢 Join us for our next IDD Connect event, in partnership with the Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (CEMA)
🌏 Region: Africa
💪 Theme: “Strengthening Infectious Disease Modelling in Africa” - this session will bring together leading experts from across the continent to showcase how modelling is shaping public health decision-making in diverse settings.
 
Time & date: 12:00-13:00 East Africa Time, 13 May 2026.

Speakers
- Mutono Nyamai, Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (CEMA)

- Rachel Hounsell, Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA)

- Zeineb Ounissi, African Modelling and Analytics Academy for Women & Institut Pasteur de Tunis - معهد باستور تونس

- Jeremy Bingham, SACEMA (South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis)

- Maryam Diarra, Institut Pasteur de Dakar

- Lulama Lunika, Modeling of Disease and Health in Africa
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Dr Edward Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
❓ Interested in contributing to the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD; @gs-idd.bsky.social) mission, values & strategic plan? 📧 Sign up to the GSIDD mailing list to receive updates: www.gsidd.org/join-us-old 👇 View GSIDD mission, values & strategic plan details.
gsidd.org
About | GSIDD
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Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) @gs-idd.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
1/ Would you like to input on GSIDD aims and plans? 💬 As we collectively shape the future of GSIDD, we invite the infectious disease dynamics community to review & provide feedback on our proposed mission, values & strategic plan. 🔗: www.gsidd.org/about #IDsky #EpiSky #PublicHealth #OneHealth 🧪
gsidd.org
About | GSIDD
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IDDjobs @iddjobs.org · 10/04/2026
Postdoc (Sydney, Australia) Post-Doc Fellow (Level B) in Infectious Disease Modelling with Alexandra Hogan, James Wood at UNSW Sydney More details: iddjobs.org/jobs/2512
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IDDjobs @iddjobs.org · 10/04/2026
Early career faculty (Sydney, Australia) Teaching and research 5 year position at level B (lecturer) with a focus on IDD at @UNSW More details: iddjobs.org/jobs/2511
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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 20/10/2024
A propos nothing, this is a great long read on Al-Aly's Long Covid studies undark.org/2024/07/25/l...
undark.org
Looking for Long Covid: A Clash of Definition and Study Design
Influential studies from the VA St. Louis take a broad view of long Covid. Not every expert agrees with the approach.
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Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) @gs-idd.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
1/ 👋 Hi all, we are the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD). #GSIDD #IDsky #EpiSky 🧪 🗺️ GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners and educators in infectious disease dynamics. ➕ Follow us for updates on our activities! 🔗: www.gsidd.org
gsidd.org
Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) | infectious disease dynamics
GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners, and educators in infectious disease dynamics.
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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
🎓We are advertising three 2-year research+teaching positions in applied maths or stats. These have a reduced teaching load (50 lectures a yr) compared to a standard academic position so applicants can gain teaching experience while having time for research jobs.canterbury.ac.nz/jobdetails/a...
jobs.canterbury.ac.nz
Lecturer / Postdoctoral Fellow in Applied Mathematics or Statistics (2-year fixed-term) - University of Canterbury | Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha
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Dr Roz Eggo @rozeggo.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Launch of the Global Society of Infectious Disease Dynamics. 🎉 2 online webinars on Thursday 26th. Do join to see what it's all about, and get involved in the community as it kicks off! www.gsidd.org/post/join-us...
gsidd.org
Join us for the launch event!
We are excited to invite you to the official launch of the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) on February 26th, 2026.This launch marks an important milestone for our global communi...
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 13/06/2025
Australian friends! I'm going to be visiting Sydney in just over a week. I'll be at UNSW on June 23-25th and Macquarie on June 26-27th. I'd love to catch up with people in person, and also will be giving (at least) two talks at UNSW. The first is science-of-science modeling talk, on June 23:
UNSW School of BABS Special Seminar


Peer review meltdown
Carl T. Bergstrom, University of Washington

Host/Chair Prof Mark Tanaka

Monday 23 June 2025

1pm-2pm 

Mathews Theatre C

You’ve seen it yourself. Peer review is coming apart at the seams. Editors face a mighty struggle to recruit reviewers. Researchers are overwhelmed with review requests. Authors wait months or longer for low-quality reviews of their work. In this talk, I present a series of simple mathematical models to illustrate what is happening and why. (1) An elite journal relies on peer review to identify the top papers; knowing the quality of the peer review process, authors self-screen and send only their best work to this journal. But when the reward from publishing in the elite journal increases, submission volume increases. (2) When submission volume increases, review quality drops as the most qualified reviews are no longer available — but we prove that when review quality drops, submission volume necessarily increases as more authors try to sneak in undeservedly. This feedback process swamps the journals with submissions and erodes the quality of review. (3) We next consider what happens as elite journals proliferate and show that, paradoxically, as the number of elite journals increases, researchers self-screen more assiduously, but the review load continues to increase. To illustrate the consequences, we consider welfare measures for authors, reviewers, and readers. (4) Finally, we explore the way in which aggressive desk rejection policies can partially check this peer review meltdown.  
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 04/06/2025
Possibly the best thing I've read about ChatGPT yet. h/t @melaniemitchell.bsky.social amandaguinzburg.substack.com/p/diabolus-e...
amandaguinzburg.substack.com
Diabolus Ex Machina
This Is Not An Essay
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 26/03/2025
For example, explaining that smoking causes lung cancer "directs people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes." Helping people understand that vaccines prevent diseases and do not cause autism "directs people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes."
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 26/03/2025
A core element of public health involves working with the public to help them understand how they can protect themselves and their neighbors from disease. This memo (see the next post) equates this vital aspect of public communication with censorship.
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 26/03/2025
Here NIH officials target contracts that "may be related to any form of censorship at all or *directing people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes*." Directing people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes IS public health. It's also education.
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Adam Rogers @jetjocko.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
A science agency wants to stop knowing which ideas are true and which ones aren’t.
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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Nailed it
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ARC Tracker @arc-tracker.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
I would very much like the researchers we already have in Australia to be properly funded, before we consider new money for poaching people from other countries. But one cannot help but contrast this ERC announcement with the narrow thinking here in Australia.
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