Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Seems like a smart question. Pretty sure that all they're sharing is the emergency proportion. You can get it by hovering but afaict it's not in the csv, which is a gap. I'm told they're working on an API.... haven't really found anyone to tag here. 010
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Very nice project: up-to-date COVID, flu and RSV spread information from US CDC Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics www.cdc.gov/cfa-modeling... 171
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Our department is looking for a tenure-track plant biologist! See www.academicwork.ca/jobs/tenure-.... Vibrant department; liveable city; friendly country (Canada); new greenhouse facility ...academicwork.caTenure-Track Assistant Professor in Plant Biology 047
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Clinic on Dynamical Approaches to Infectious Disease Data (DAIDD): 29 Nov–5 Dec. Nairobi, Kenya Run by us, the International Clinics on Infectious Disease Dynamics and Data (ICI3D) A great opportunity to meet people fighting infectious disease and to learn about dynamical modeling. 172
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Probably you remember the Fibonacci numbers: start with 1, 1 and then each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, ... Probably you don't remember the Lucas numbers. Start instead with 1, 3: 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 18 ... 010
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 29/08/2026My favorite one is 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 = -L(-1), -F(-2), F(-1), F(1), F(2), L(1) When I first thought of it, it seemed implausible that there would really be 6 distinct ways to generate 1 in this context, but it works. 110
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 29/08/2026For example, with difference 8 = F(6) -11, -3, 5, 13, 21, 29 = -L(5), -F(4), F(5), F(7), F(8), L(7) are all in sequence. Sometimes I just sit and think about these sequences. 110
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Every Fibonacci number is the difference for a sequence of length six that contains: * three other Fibonacci numbers * the negative of yet another Fibonacci number * a Lucas number * the negative of a Lucas number. 130
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 17/08/2026Basically, you play Go (with the pie rule) until both players pass, and then switch to Hex. You can see a bit more information at en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Jo... or try playing it (locally) at dushoff.github.io/xGo/. 010
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 17/08/2026I know it sounds insane, but I really believe we've invented the best Go variant. xGo has Go-like play, a global win criterion (no counting) and is elegantly balanced by the pie rule -- accomplishing the goals of Gonnect more beautifully. IMHO. commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:He...commons.wikimedia.org 120
Reposted by Jonathan DushoffAdam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 16/08/2026The fundraising texts you delete are working on someone. It’s infuriating and heartbreaking. An 85yo in Ohio gave more than double the value of his home. A 91yo in an Indianapolis senior facility gave 25K times. The DCCC/DSCC don’t just tolerate the spammers who exploit seniors. They take part.data4democracy.substack.comHook and SqueezeHow Democratic consultants, committees, and party leaders built a fundraising spam pipeline that funnels money from a captive pool of elderly donors into their own operations. 17845351588
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 15/08/2026xkcd.com/3285/ @xkcd.com reminds me so much of the final scene of Total Recall -- people solving an urgent problem with a geologic-scale process.xkcd.com 040
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 30/07/2026E.g., the population has 200 black and 800 white users. 10 black and 10 white users are arrested. That's 5% of black users and 1.25% of white users. 4 times the per-person risk (not the naive 50/20 = 2.5). 010
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 30/07/2026Here's a good example, though. If 20% of recreation drug users and 50% of recreational drug arrests are black people, the relative risk of a black person being arrested is the odds ratio between those two measures. 110
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 29/07/2026They're kind of burying the lead. It's not: how did everyone miss the typo? It's: how can somebody be sent to prison on a single, tenuous piece of evidence? That's not what happens on my teevee! 2291
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 28/07/2026I've now played 1000 games since that reset… and my average is 3.993. Equivalent to 7 guesses under par. In 1000 games. Even though it's a bunch of random rules I made up out of almost nothing! 120
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 28/07/2026After a couple hundred games my score somehow got reset. My average happened to be pretty near my arbitrary par of 4 when that happened. 110
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 28/07/2026So, before I really understood the game well, I arbitrarily decided: • I would play for average • My "par" would be 4 • A loss would have a penalty of 20 over par (i.e., count for 24 guesses) 110
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 28/07/2026When I first started playing Wordle I was confused about my motivation. Should I play conservatively and never “lose”? Or should I aim for low scores, or what? 110
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 28/07/2026I think this is pretty remarkable, but it's a bit of a story. 140
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 24/07/2026So 20% of us have glyphosate levels that probably wouldn't be detected in our urine in a standard test. Does that mean we're safe? Maybe not, right? Or maybe the level is very low and many of the 80% are safe? I'm assuming a more sensitive test would show much higher than 80%. Would you agree? 110
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 24/07/2026I would say that all of us definitely have glyphosate in our bodies. How should we interpret the 80% factoid? 100
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 23/07/2026You can have it write a python script to translate or clean up references, though. 000
Reposted by Jonathan Dushoff Minor Leaguer @minorleaguer.ca · 23/07/2026Brendon Little honours a great Blue Jays season with his ERA 3408
Reposted by Jonathan DushoffMatthew Cortland (they) @matthewcort.land · 20/07/2026It's a scam all the way down. Taylor Farms gave MAGA Inc. $1M USD less than a week after FDA postponed implementation of food traceability rules. www.patreon.com/mattbc/posts... 5447052040
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 20/07/2026That's what I thought too. But now I think he means the Jacobian Conjecture. 010
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 19/07/2026This is the best opening paragraph in history. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...theatlantic.comPunctuation: A Generational DivideCan parents ever learn to text like their kids? Should they even try? 062
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 18/07/20262/10 is the probability that the doubled movie is the first chosen; 1/9 is the conditional probability that it is the second chosen. These are the two pieces of the answer in the conventional solution (and the answer is their product). 000
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 16/07/2026Assume: * the teams can be ranked * the higher ranked team always wins * grouping the teams for the first two games is random 020
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 16/07/2026A timely puzzle: four teams enter a tournament structured like the World Cup Final Four (there is a bracket, the two first-game winners play for first and the other two teams play for third). What is the probability that the second-best team will take second place? ... 140
Reposted by Jonathan DushoffDr. Rowan Durrant @rowandurrant.bsky.social · 02/07/2026Now out in Virus Evolution! CpG content is higher in carnivore-associated rabies virus clades than in bat-associated clades. Coauthors on here: @jdushoff.bsky.social @matt-arnold-bio.bsky.social @khampson.bsky.socialacademic.oup.comValidate User 052
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 10/06/2026I mean, in Spanish its neither. More of an "ah". In English, I guess it's whatever he says it is. But he's from Venezuela so it seems like you should be allowed to pronounce it in Spanish until you get better info. 110
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 09/06/2026Some of them would absolutely defend that exact thing, if the play came up. And insult the complainers. 000
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 09/06/2026oops, I failed to link to the preprint, and nobody apparently noticed! Including me. Sure that doesn't mean anything worrisome about me, bluesky, or anyone, though. www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...biorxiv.orgA simple method of estimating rabies outbreak sizes from phylogeniesThe ability to estimate the size of a disease outbreak is beneficial both for coordinating an outbreak response and for retrospectively evaluating the effectiveness of response measures and surveillan... 071
Reposted by Jonathan DushoffJoseph Cox @josephcox.bsky.social · 08/06/2026This is an outrageous story. A farmer donated 87 acres to a small Texas city on the condition it be used as a public park. Years later, the farmer has passed away, the city sold the land to a developer, and now it will be the site of a 135,000 square foot data center www.404media.co/a-farmer-don...404media.coA Farmer Donated Land to Turn into a Park. The City Is Building a Massive Data Center InsteadIn 1999, a farmer gave away 87 acres of land to a small Texas town to use as a park. The town sold to a data center developer for $10 million. 25466062966
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 08/06/2026Led by @rowandurrant.bsky.social, we're trying to develop rules of thumb to estimate under-reporting from sequence data. Today rabies, tomorrow the world! With @khampson.bsky.social, @kirstynbrunker.bsky.social and others. 1103
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 24/05/2026Apparently not true www.reuters.com/sports/socce...reuters.comWhite House: No visa issues for Iraq's World Cup teamThe White House refuted reports that the United States denied visas for five members of Iraq's national team ahead of next month's World Cup. 000
Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 30/04/2026The parable of the polygons is a super-cool way of thinking about pedagogy, a super-cool way of thinking about the usefulness of dynamical modeling, and a super-cool way of thinking about how our world became so polarized (maybe even a thought about how to address that): ncase.me/polygons/ncase.meParable of the PolygonsA playable post on how harmless choices can make a harmful world. 1112
Reposted by Jonathan DushoffSteve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 30/04/2026The Callais ruling is the latest evidence that the real problem with #SCOTUS is that it can do whatever it wants without any fear of pushback from Congress. The way to fix that is by making the Court *accountable* again, something that expanding it or imposing term limits won't actually accomplish:stevevladeck.comBonus 223: "They Are Who We Thought They Were"The Callais ruling has prompted renewed calls for Court reform. It's also a reminder of why the most popular proposals *aren't* how we should fix the Court. 831393378
Reposted by Jonathan DushoffAndrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 30/04/2026In our recent EID letter: Serial Interval and Intervention Efficiency in Pertussis Outbreak, South Korea, 2024, we re-analyzed Cho et al.'s outbreak data to recover the unmitigated serial interval — what would be expected without case isolation. wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/... @jdushoff.bsky.social 131