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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 8h

Our correspondence (together with Jonathan Dushoff and Robin Thompson) is out in Lancet Microbe. It cautions of different but not always correct interpretations for basic reproduction numbers, especially in case of subcritical pathogens such Andes virus www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

thelancet.com

Transmission potential of Andes virus

We read with interest the Comment published in The Lancet Microbe by Jason R Andrews and Isaac I Bogoch,1 who highlighted that the largest Andes virus outbreaks are driven by rare superspreading event...

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Our reanalysis of the first Bundibugyo virus outbreak (Uganda, 2007) is out in EID, offering some insights in transmission of Bundibugyo Reff: 1.55 before control measures, 0.50 after Case fatality: 31%, declining to 25% About 15% of cases missed doi.org/10.3201/eid3...

doi.org

Estimated Transmissibility and Case Fatality Rate of Bundibugyo Virus, Uganda, 2007

Estimated Transmissibility and Case Rate Fatality of Bundibugyo Virus, Uganda, 2007

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

"Recent analyses indicate a median interval of eight days from symptom onset to death, with almost half of deaths occurring within the first week of illness" -> Yes, indeed, if the median is 8 days, than almost half would be within the first week... reliefweb.int/report/democ...

reliefweb.int

Ebola Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak: Democratic Republic of the Congo | Uganda Weekly External Situation Report 12, Data as of 02 August 2026 - Democratic Republic of the Congo

Situation Report in English on Democratic Republic of the Congo about Health and Epidemic; published on 6 Aug 2026 by WHO

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

At the end of last year, we published our report on food poisoning outbreak of rare Bongkrekic acid (BA) that occurred in a restaurant in Taipei in March 2024, affecting 33 diners; 9 of whom were hospitalized and 6 died. @robin.n.thompson

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

In our recent EID letter: Serial Interval and Intervention Efficiency in Pertussis Outbreak, South Korea, 2024, we re-analyzed Cho et al.'s outbreak data to recover the unmitigated serial interval — what would be expected without case isolation. wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/... @jdushoff.bsky.social

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

But when Hakuho won his tournament as a Shin-Ozeki, he was Mongolian

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Reposted by Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克)

Sam Abbott @seabbs.bsky.social · 09/12/2025

A really nice paper with a very interestingly complicated dataset. Lots of modelling details to dig into in the SI.

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

Recently, Taiwanese government sent a scary book asking their citizens to prepare for war. A lot of money has been spent on that book and there QR codes in it, which would not be working in case of war. Anyway, let's wish the peace will remain

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

I have not been really against using AI, but first time I thought of it, when I read someone's comment on another comment published in the journal. Especially, when the opening of the letter looks "familiar": www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Indeed, checking with Grammarly gave a score of 42%

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Reposted by Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克)

Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

Nice preprint by David Earn and Todd Parsons (H/T @jmccaw.bsky.social) showing how the SIR model can be related to a more general class of renewal process models that don't assume exponentially distributed infectious period. arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939

arxiv.org

Epidemic Momentum

Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. We introduce a unifying concept of "epidemic momentum" -- prevalence weighted by the capacity to infect in the future...

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

Following the first report of African Swine Fever (#ASF) in Taiwan, here is a reminder of our paper on the 2018-2019 ASF outbreak in China. It took about 6 months to for ASF to get reported in every province of China. Long-distance tranmissions were driving the outbreak: doi.org/10.1017/S095...

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 17/10/2025

A nice subsection, "Let us consider the following framework". My student said, it is cute

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Reposted by Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克)

Jonathan Dushoff @jdushoff.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

My dynamical modeling slides from the NCTS course on Infectious Disease modeling github.com/dushoff/dise...

A graph of HIV prevalence vs. Year, showing prevalence increasing rapidly from 1990-1998, then slowly until 2010. A curve follows closely the increasing portion, then shoots off the top of the graph. Text at the top reads R0=5.66

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Great to have very interesting lectures during this year summer school at NTU! And great to have the summer school back after COVID-19 pandemic!

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 29/06/2025

Does Copilot really help? I have been struggling with coding recently, let's see...

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

Oh, it's appeared - I received the first invitation to review for Discover journal. See details the-strain-on-scientific-publishing.github.io/website/post...

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

This NEJM episode about angioedema is quite interesting. youtu.be/8Ds16fscqKQ?... The patient had reoccuring of abdominal pain, and it was a mystery. One of the explanations was Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF), which was unlikely because the patient didn't report any fever.

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

An interesting title with "China and its provinces" doi.org/10.1016/S221... Although it assumes some external provinces, they are not part of the study: all analysis is about PRC and two SARs.

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 24/04/2025

Interersting and important study of Chang et al on pregnancy and associated severe injuries during the car crashes based on Taiwan data (www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...). Severe injuries: adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 1.79, 95 % CI = 1.54–2.08) and mild injuries: aOR = 8.63, 95 % CI = 8.21–9.07)

sciencedirect.com

Pregnancy is associated with more severe injuries from motor vehicle crashes

Whether pregnancy is associated with severe injuries from motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the potential …

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

I don't understand this kind of reviews. Are people kind of not ashamed to submit just one paragraph of a summary for the review?

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Recently, we published a comment on 2022 Sudan virus outbreak in Uganda www.thelancet.com/journals/lan... The study estimated the (constant) effective reproduction number Rt at 1.25. We have investigated a time-varying Rt, highlighting that its temporary variation can also provide important messages

thelancet.com

2022 Sudan virus disease outbreak in Uganda: temporal variations in transmission

In their descriptive epidemiological study, Zainah Kabami and colleagues (August, 2024)1 analysed epidemiological data from the 2022 Sudan virus disease outbreak in Uganda. The outbreak resulted in 16...

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

When I received the automatic reply that the person was out of office for some time, but then they wrote "Your message will not be processed". Is it kind of a new fashion [in Europe]? :/

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

Oh, the news in Independent about the largest outbreak of TB in Kanzas, but the article states that TB has two different strains: active TB and latent TB. But they are definitely not two strains, and latent TB may progress to active TB... :/ www.the-independent.com/news/world/a...

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Wow, so the cumulative excess mortality due to COVID-19 is at highest in Russia, Belarus, and Balkan republics as of July 2024 according to Cowling and Wong (doi.org/10.1007/978-...)

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

Another example when Taiwan with its 23-million population is simply excluded from the statistical data

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 26/08/2024

In our recent paper, we showed that the incubation period of mpox infections for the 2022 global outbreak and historical data were quite close to each other (8.1 vs. 8.2 days). However, the incubation period for clade I was relatively shorter than for clade II (7.3 vs 8.9 days).

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 10/07/2024

Today I was told that patients with advanced liver cancer would never be cancer-free, so their only one solution is to control the tumor.

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 15/01/2024

It's of great pleasure to be a part of joint effort on trying to clarify some challenging aspects for estimating epi time intervals of infectious diseases. The project mostly led and mostly realized by Sang Woo Park and Sam Abbott (@seabbs.bsky.social) - many thanks!

medrxiv.org

Estimating epidemiological delay distributions for infectious diseases

medRxiv - The Preprint Server for Health Sciences

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Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克) @aakhmetz.bsky.social · 08/01/2024

Interesting, a study from HK: "We calculated percentages of asymptomatic cases of 41.8% among reported SARS-CoV-2 infections and 72.1% (95% CrI 70.8%–73.0%) among total (reported and unreported) infections."

wwwnc.cdc.gov

Inferring Incidence of Unreported SARS-CoV-2 Infections Using Seroprevalence of Open Reading Frame 8...

Incidence of Unreported SARS-CoV-2 Infections

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