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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis

@jamonm.bsky.social
2.6K followers 147 following 1K posts

American Soccer Analysis: Co-creator g+ GameFlows and the Where Goals Come From project. he/him Cien Goles game: ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Yes, this is a breakout of the three Shooter Chain elements I introduced yesterday. These three elements tell us a lot about how the shooter plays. For starters: do they receive in good areas? do they create off the dribble (or do they mostly head/one-time)? and do they shoot from dangerous areas?
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Colors courtesy of the @americansocceranalysis.com Goals Added palette, of course. And be sure to read the latest from @kierdoyle.bsky.social about projecting players from MLS Next Pro using these visualizations. www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/8/...
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Did a bit of work today and now we can see this same list broken out by g+ Shooting (raw), g+ Dribbling (pre-shot), and g+ Receiving (of the key pass). This helps us understand better how each top shooter (or any shooter) improves goal probabilities. And there are lots more possibilities than this!
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
You might have noticed I called this the "Shooter Key Chain g+" in that last chart. There is a reason for this, which we will get into next week (or maybe an article). Some light background reading: www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2021/10... Enjoy the USMNT vs. El Tri! /end
americansocceranalysis.com
Where Goals Come From: Playing the Killer Final Ball — American Soccer Analysis
This is the third article of Season Two and tenth overall article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter. In ou...
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
So now, what we are establishing is a chain. A set of related actions that improve shot value. We could call this the "Shooter Chain". The Shooter Chain looks like this: Receive KP → Dribble → Shoot (g+ Receive) → (g+ Dribbling) → (g+ Shooting) g+ Shooter Chain leaders:
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
In fact, there is twice as much "goals added" in key pass receiving as there is in key pass passing just by eyeballing those charts. This is why ASA emphasizes its g+ Receiving category where some Expected Possession Value (EPV) models don't include it. But that's not all. What about dribbling?
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
That last graphic shows @americansocceranalysis.com's Goals Added (g+) Passing category from key passes alone. So to see who plays the highest value key passes, we can just divide g+ Passing by key passes. Simple, right? But what about how the key pass is received? That can have a lot of g+, too.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Probably the most asked question I got when Carlon and I were putting out frequent Where Goals Come From articles was: What are the best key passes for each pass type (through ball, cutback, cross, etc.) The expected answers range from "play this pass from x to y" to the higher value passes.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Friday Stat Dump: Shooter g+ Chains I've made a big deal on this account about key passes and Expected Assists (xA) in the past and even "intentional" and "unintentional" elements. Today, we start to go a layer deeper. First, your 2026 MLS key pass leaders through last weekend.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I believe very much it’s a league of phases. You need to do well enough in three of five of them, and you make the playoffs.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Been a really fun game in Seattle tonight. Both teams over 20 shots. The fans were really in it. SKC came to play. Data courtesy of @futi.live
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SickosFC @sickosfc.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
NWSL said:
Lord of the Rings Second Breakfast Meme

Merry asks "What about ACFC?" 

Aragon says you've already had it

Merry says we've had one, yes

Merry says "what about second ACFC?"

The first text of ACFC is in pink approximating the colors of Angel City FC. The second ACFC is in red-orange approximating the colors of the newly announced Atlanta City FC
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
How bad of a team can you build? Cien Goles is waiting for you to find out. ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
You also can collect Wooden Spoons in the trophy room. There is even a special one for getting a Wooden Spoon on Easy difficulty, because you are picking from the better team seasons and playing against the worse team seasons. The first time you get it, it's tracked in your achievements.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Did you know you can "win" the Wooden Spoon in Cien Goles? There are few different comments the game will make when it happens.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Cien Goles · NWSL · Hard · 3-4-3 ⚽ 21 goals scored 🥄 Wooden Spoon 📊 16th Place 🎯 Draft efficiency: -3% (Grade: F) ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com #CienGoles #WGCF
ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com
Cien Goles
Cien Goles — Can you score 100 goals and win the league?
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Added a fix and a couple of enhancements to Cien Goles today on the Bluesky / share functionality: 1. Enhancement: the league shows in the first line 2. Fix: NWSL Champions instead of MLS Cup Champions if the league is NWSL 🙃 3. Your individual awards are shown with the player who got them.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Cien Goles · NWSL · Easy · 3-4-3 ⭐⭐⭐ THE TRIPLE ⭐⭐⭐ ⚽ 106 goals scored 🏆 NWSL Champions 🛡️ Supporters' Shield 📊 1st Place 🎯 Draft efficiency: 100% (Grade: A) 🏅 MVP: Wilson 🏅 Golden Boot: Wilson ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com #CienGoles #WGCF
ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com
Cien Goles
Cien Goles — Can you score 100 goals and win the league?
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wellMcGARNAGLE @wellmcgarnagle.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Cien Goles · Medium · 3-4-3 ⭐⭐⭐ THE TRIPLE ⭐⭐⭐ ⚽ 111 goals scored 🏆 MLS Cup Champions 🛡️ Supporters' Shield 📊 1st Place 🎯 Draft efficiency: 100% (Grade: A) ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com #CienGoles #WGCF Sam Surridge absolutely dominated
ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com
Cien Goles
Cien Goles — Can you score 100 goals and win the league?
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Friday Stat Dump will be coming out, but it will be on a different day over the next week. I have something I want to share, but it is not ready yet. Stay tuned.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Cien Goles · Hard · 4-3-3 ⚽ 84 goals scored 📊 2nd Place 🎯 Draft efficiency: 82% (Grade: C) ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com #CienGoles #WGCF
ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com
Cien Goles
Cien Goles — Can you score 100 goals and win the league?
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
static.klipy.com
John Cena's Iconic 'Never Give Up' Shirt Reveal
ALT: John Cena's Iconic 'Never Give Up' Shirt Reveal
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Need a Triple on Hard mode!
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Matt Wilcox @fadedtoblack.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Closest one so far... Cien Goles · Hard · 4-3-3 ⚽ 71 goals scored 🏆 MLS Cup Champions 🛡️ Supporters' Shield 📊 1st Place 🎯 Draft efficiency: 67% (Grade: D) ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com #CienGoles #WGCF
ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com
Cien Goles
Cien Goles — Can you score 100 goals and win the league?
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I was there for the playoff game when RSL got like no shots in regulation and won in KFTM (I did that just for you, MLS Ref Stats).
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Recrudescence of the Kakistocrats @reddtrain.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The TD of this Cien Goles squad needs to be fired, but the coach should be in Europe based on this performance. cc: @jamonm.bsky.social
Cien Goles screenshot.

Won the conference and MLS Cup on hard with a +21 GD.Cien Goles screenshot:

...and a -6 xGD.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I really enjoyed getting to talk to Katherine Gier about the Cien Goles game, as well as how I got into soccer analytics, and the growth of analytics and challenges covering the women's game. Check it out if you want to hear more about our coverage of women's soccer at @americansocceranalysis.com.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Even if you are late to the party, you can start playing now. It's free! ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com /end
ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com
Cien Goles
Cien Goles — Can you score 100 goals and win the league?
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
5) Don't forget: you can move players around until the start of the season. Select a player on the pitch, and it will highlight where they can be moved to. That way if you could get a good player late in the draft that doesn't have a position available, you might be able to make way for them.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
4) Watch your xG balance meter. Try not to let the Progressive Pass end below 35%. 40% or higher is better. My Individual Play here is probably too low, as it's the second most valuable category (higher xG shots). 20% or better is a good number. Avoid putting too much into Free Kicks.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
3) Use the player drawers to check for boosts. If you have a choice between a player with boosts and one without, take the player with them. Try to pair PP Creators with high volume and/or quality on PP shot players. Same with SPP. Marksman increases the goal probability for this player's shots.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
2) Usually the most impactful ratings are the PP (Progressive Pass) and IP (Individual Play). Higher numbers produce more shots for that player, while darker boxes produce better quality shots for that player. With a dark PP 33 and a high IP 58, Andi Sullivan is likely the best choice here.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Did you get 100 goals on easy and medium difficulties in Cien Goles? It's time to try hard difficulty! Here are a few tips to getting more goals (these work on easy and medium as well): 1) There is no overall rating, so look at the colored WGCF boxes. Higher numbers and darker boxes are better.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Please DM me.
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Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 21/09/2026
Five months later, Vancouver and SKC are in the running as the best and worst teams by xPoints since 2013. Nashville are likely going to win the Supporter's Shield like most teams over the last few years - by over-performing their underlying metrics. Montreal has had rotten luck.

Scatter plot of xPoints on x-axis and Points-xPoints on the y axis. Nashville is really lucky, Montreal really unlucky, and SKC and Vancouver are really bad and good.Faceted scatter plots of xPoints on x-axis and Points-xPoints of the y-axis. 2024 Miami is the luckiest, but Nashville this season isn't far behind
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
I'll second that.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
The Lions were recently good. Maybe that's not true now. idk.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Brian White just did what I think there should be more of in soccer: redirected a shot hockey-style. Sure that initial ball had an outside chance, but it made it such an “easy” finish because the keeper was on the post, following it.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
I really appreciate that. Thank you.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Have you played Cien Goles today? We’re still looking for our first MLS and NWSL teams to score 100 goals or more in a season on Hard difficulty. Share your scores on Bluesky and tag me if you can get over 90!
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Hey, look at that passing, though!
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
I built that in just for you. But at least it's a different season each time.
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Sometimes the Cien Goles come with the weirdest rosters, and then you get Messi and 75 goals. Soccer is unpredictable!
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
118 might be our new high score. This is on "Easy". Can you beat it? If you do, share it! What is your best score on Medium or Hard difficulties?
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
I believe this is the first shared instance of The Triple! What happens when you get a Triple? You have to play to find out. 😉
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Josh @joshonthesound.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
No cup but pretty good for my first try. 2019 Jordan Morris an assist demon! Cien Goles · Medium · 4-2-3-1 ⚽ 101 goals scored 🛡️ Supporters' Shield 📊 1st Place 🎯 Draft efficiency: 100% (Grade: A) ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com #CienGoles #WGCF
ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com
Cien Goles
Cien Goles — Can you score 100 goals and win the league?
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Kathleen Gier @kgier.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
This game is so much fun! Drop your best score in the responses. ——— Cien Goles · Easy · 4-4-2 ⭐⭐⭐ THE TRIPLE ⭐⭐⭐ ⚽ 123 goals scored 🏆 MLS Cup Champions 🛡️ Supporters' Shield 📊 1st Place 🎯 Draft efficiency: 94% (Grade: B) ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com #CienGoles #WGCF
ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com
Cien Goles
Cien Goles — Can you score 100 goals and win the league?
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American Soccer Analysis @americansocceranalysis.com · 19/09/2026
Cien Goles · Easy · 4-4-2 ⚽ 95 goals scored 🛡️ Supporters' Shield 📊 1st Place 🎯 Draft efficiency: 100% (Grade: A) ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com #CienGoles #WGCF Be better than me!
ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com
Cien Goles
Cien Goles — Can you score 100 goals and win the league?
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Just checking in my data, and we have had no Cien Goles yet on Hard difficulty. In Hard difficulty, you lose seeing the overall rating, but you get to keep the all the WGCF category data (although pick from worse teams overall). Who can be the first? Be sure to share on Bluesky if you get it!
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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
No Friday Stat Dump today as all my available energy went into putting out this game for all of you to enjoy. If you've missed this due to work or other reasons, jump in and have some fun! ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com Look for an FSD-type thread tomorrow or Sunday, though!
ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com
Cien Goles
Cien Goles — Can you score 100 goals and win the league?
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