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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 1h

I've now stacked Shooter g+ Chain, Key Pass g+ Chain and Secondary Key Pass g+ Chain together. While Evander isn't at the very top, that he generates as much value from the key pass chain as the shooter chain, is definitely elite. He is the top player in both the key pass and 2nd key pass chains.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 1h

Apologies, this chart says "Key Pass Chain g+", but it is actually "Secondary Key Pass Chain g+". I corrected the chart title in case you want to share this with anyone. With the smaller values, you might see some "0" on bars. That just means the total is a decimal under 0.1.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 1h

Without further ado, here are your full Secondary Key Pass g+ Chain leaders of MLS 2026: (again, the colors here match up to what you will see on a player g+ visualization from ASA.)

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 1h

As I mentioned last week, the receiving in the chain can be a little confusing, because the secondary key passer is actually receiving the *tertiary* key pass. Yep. (I know your eyes are rolling to the back of your head right now.) But this lets us complete the chain.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 1h

In this chain, I expect to see some value created off the dribble. The values are not really high, but in the middle of the pitch, there are a lot of negative or near-zero g+ values that weigh some of this down. Your top g+ Dribblers before the secondary key pass:

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 1h

(Paging @joeclowery.bsky.social for the CB list there) Now, we want to look at who is creating the most value from those 2nd key passes, so we'll go back to looking at g+ Passing to understand that. Remember our chain is: Receive, dribble (optional), pass, so this is the last action in it.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 1h

In there, we begin to see players who are classified as CMs, DMs, and FBs. I hate to just dump a bunch of charts on you, but I have a suspicion many of you may want to see this by position. So here is the breakout of top players at CM/DM/FB/CB (they can be in multiple, like Beau Leroux).

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 1h

Can we go deeper in the chain and find value? I think so! We want to identify players making the plays that create valuable key passes. Quite often the penultimate pass (or carry) is the one that unlocks the defense and creates the ability to have a key pass to begin with. 2nd Key Pass leaders:

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Now we can put the Shooter g+ Chain and the Key Pass g+ Chains together to find players who create value for their teams in both situations. These names probably won't surprise anyone. Next week, let's see if we get some surprises. Enjoy the games. /end

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Now, we can put the Key Pass g+ Chain together and find the top players. Receiving here is for the Secondary Key Pass not the Key Pass. The Key Pass g+ Receiving is given to the shooter. If you have a question about this, let me know. (...aaaand, we have our first negative. lol.)

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Back to passing chains. To find top players, we need to go back to them receiving the secondary key pass (if it existed). So the Key Pass g+ Chain looks like this: Receive 2nd KP → Dribble → Key Pass (g+ Receive) → (g+ Dribbling) → (g+ Passing) Who creates dribble value before the key pass?

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I used to look at numbers like this and think: why are they so low? Keep in mind the real value of the pass is in the g+ Passing + the g+ Receiving. Last week I mentioned that g+ Receiving is twice the value of g+ Passing in dangerous areas (and spread across two players). Here's the proof:

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

So instead of getting into a debate on intentional/unintentional key passes, we'll just let the pass value speak for itself. Here are your top 35 g+ Passing key passers in MLS 2026 (as of last weekend):

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Now, we are going to start to work our way backwards. You can probably guess where this is going. We are going to take a look at key passers. For this exercise, I'm not going to care about intentional vs. unintentional key passes. Why? Unintentional key passes have a very low g+ value already.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Friday Stat Dump: Key Pass g+ Chains Last Friday we introduced the concept of a Shooter g+ Chain: Receive Key Pass → Dribble (optional) → Shoot (g+ Receive) → (g+ Dribbling) → (g+ Shooting) Through last Friday, here are the top 35 shooters in MLS 2026 by Shooter g+ Chain value.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Colors courtesy of the @americansocceranalysis.com Goals Added palette, of course. And be sure to read the latest from @kierdoyle.bsky.social about projecting players from MLS Next Pro using these visualizations. www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/8/...

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Did a bit of work today and now we can see this same list broken out by g+ Shooting (raw), g+ Dribbling (pre-shot), and g+ Receiving (of the key pass). This helps us understand better how each top shooter (or any shooter) improves goal probabilities. And there are lots more possibilities than this!

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

So now, what we are establishing is a chain. A set of related actions that improve shot value. We could call this the "Shooter Chain". The Shooter Chain looks like this: Receive KP → Dribble → Shoot (g+ Receive) → (g+ Dribbling) → (g+ Shooting) g+ Shooter Chain leaders:

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

In fact, there is twice as much "goals added" in key pass receiving as there is in key pass passing just by eyeballing those charts. This is why ASA emphasizes its g+ Receiving category where some Expected Possession Value (EPV) models don't include it. But that's not all. What about dribbling?

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

That last graphic shows @americansocceranalysis.com's Goals Added (g+) Passing category from key passes alone. So to see who plays the highest value key passes, we can just divide g+ Passing by key passes. Simple, right? But what about how the key pass is received? That can have a lot of g+, too.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Probably the most asked question I got when Carlon and I were putting out frequent Where Goals Come From articles was: What are the best key passes for each pass type (through ball, cutback, cross, etc.) The expected answers range from "play this pass from x to y" to the higher value passes.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Friday Stat Dump: Shooter g+ Chains I've made a big deal on this account about key passes and Expected Assists (xA) in the past and even "intentional" and "unintentional" elements. Today, we start to go a layer deeper. First, your 2026 MLS key pass leaders through last weekend.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Been a really fun game in Seattle tonight. Both teams over 20 shots. The fans were really in it. SKC came to play. Data courtesy of @futi.live

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

How bad of a team can you build? Cien Goles is waiting for you to find out. ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

You also can collect Wooden Spoons in the trophy room. There is even a special one for getting a Wooden Spoon on Easy difficulty, because you are picking from the better team seasons and playing against the worse team seasons. The first time you get it, it's tracked in your achievements.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Did you know you can "win" the Wooden Spoon in Cien Goles? There are few different comments the game will make when it happens.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

5) Don't forget: you can move players around until the start of the season. Select a player on the pitch, and it will highlight where they can be moved to. That way if you could get a good player late in the draft that doesn't have a position available, you might be able to make way for them.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

4) Watch your xG balance meter. Try not to let the Progressive Pass end below 35%. 40% or higher is better. My Individual Play here is probably too low, as it's the second most valuable category (higher xG shots). 20% or better is a good number. Avoid putting too much into Free Kicks.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

3) Use the player drawers to check for boosts. If you have a choice between a player with boosts and one without, take the player with them. Try to pair PP Creators with high volume and/or quality on PP shot players. Same with SPP. Marksman increases the goal probability for this player's shots.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

2) Usually the most impactful ratings are the PP (Progressive Pass) and IP (Individual Play). Higher numbers produce more shots for that player, while darker boxes produce better quality shots for that player. With a dark PP 33 and a high IP 58, Andi Sullivan is likely the best choice here.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Did you get 100 goals on easy and medium difficulties in Cien Goles? It's time to try hard difficulty! Here are a few tips to getting more goals (these work on easy and medium as well): 1) There is no overall rating, so look at the colored WGCF boxes. Higher numbers and darker boxes are better.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Just checking in my data, and we have had no Cien Goles yet on Hard difficulty. In Hard difficulty, you lose seeing the overall rating, but you get to keep the all the WGCF category data (although pick from worse teams overall). Who can be the first? Be sure to share on Bluesky if you get it!

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

There are trophies, leaderboards, and you can name your MLS and NWSL teams whatever you want. Click that person head icon thing at the top of the browser. You can sync your team names, trophies, and leaderboard stats across devices with a code. No personal information needed!

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

What's unique about Cien Goles is *every shot* is simulated by every team in the league and even goalkeeper quality (yours and your opponent's) is factored in. This lets us get "realistic" and interesting end-of-season statistics. There's even player awards for each season.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

After a few seconds, you should see a goal tracker appear as your team plays its schedule. The season only take a few seconds to simulate. Will you achieve Cien Goles? Better yet, will you achieve The Triple?

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Keep drafting until you have 11 players filled out on the pitch. Track your average xG balance based on selected players and their shot types and creator benefits. Don't forget to track your defense as well. Then start the season!

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Select the down arrow icon for any player to see their drawer. In there are all the details about their volume and xG quality of each shot type. Some players have boosts! (This is a game, not a pure simulation.) Supercharge your attack with creators, free kick, and PK specialists. RSL 2017 Rusnak:

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

On all difficulties, you will see their "Where Goals Come From" shot ratings. The higher the number, the better their shot quality for each goal category. The darker the box, the more volume they create. This is all relative to their position peers. The How It Works guide helps you with acronyms.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Spin to get a team, pick a player and position, spin again to fill a roster of 11 players. On easy and medium difficulties, you see a player rating, 1-99, and their eligible positions. The darker the position pill, the more minutes the player had. Select a player or position pill to draft them.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Modeled very much after the OG, 82-0, and @futi.live's Centurions and @kierdoyle.bsky.social's Road to 75 excellent games, you draft a set of players from various team seasons and place them into various positions. Each team season since 2017 is assigned to hard, medium, or easy difficulty.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Can you build an MLS or NWSL super team that can score 100 goals in a season? Announcing Cien Goles, a simulation game modeled with the Where Goals Come From framework! ciengoles.americansocceranalysis.com Best of all, it's free!

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Consider that split of how goals have been scored in NWSL vs. MLS since 2021. With minor seasonal fluctuations, the most important areas in both are creating from progressive passes and being opportunistic in the box. But, in the US, women have more progressive pass goals for top teams.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Going to my first NWSL game this year today! (Reign vs. Bay FC was my one game last year, and I got to meet the great @arielledror.bsky.social at halftime 😁) I get asked about Where Goals Come From for women's ⚽ vs. men's, and my answer remains, "the game is the game -- all levels, all genders."

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

So let's compare Progressive Pass Goals to Progressive Pass xG... *sigh* Not every chart can be a winner. More to come soon... Enjoy the games! /end

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

...or should it be Julian Hall? He's on 5 goals but 8.4 xG in the progressive pass category.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

I personally love to see how players are scoring their goals. Brian White is my WGCF king, but Denis Bouanga and Preston Judd are challenging for the crown.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

And then we can scatterplot it... Okay, the heads seemed like a good idea at the time. We'll call this a work-in-progress. Make out whatever players you can out of that. Look, Messi is in the top right corner. It must be a good chart.

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

While I don't track "secondary xA" (yet -- I should!) we can compare this to the league leaders in Non-penalty xG and Expected Assists (both Intentional and Unintentional).

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Friday Stat Dump: Goals + Assists (and xG + xA) Not every week has to feature some "fancy stat". 24 games into the MLS season is a great time to see which players are really standing out and helping their teams for the playoff stretch run. (hey, look, I don't need to number my skeet 🧵 anymore...)

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Jamon M - MLS and footy analysis @jamonm.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

VAN and PHI *by far* have the best differential of possessions ending in the Atk 3rd than their opponents. This is a key to the Whitecaps' success again this season, but, until recently, Philly hasn't been able to capitalize on this advantage. Teams at the bottom begin with a big disadvantage. 4/

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