Sign in

Eliot McKinley

@eliotmckinley.com
4.9K followers 230 following 663 posts

Soccer nerdery at American Soccer Analysis and (occasionally) Massive Report. Throw-in aficionado. he/him eliotmckinley.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 21/09/2026
Five months later, Vancouver and SKC are in the running as the best and worst teams by xPoints since 2013. Nashville are likely going to win the Supporter's Shield like most teams over the last few years - by over-performing their underlying metrics. Montreal has had rotten luck.

Scatter plot of xPoints on x-axis and Points-xPoints on the y axis. Nashville is really lucky, Montreal really unlucky, and SKC and Vancouver are really bad and good.Faceted scatter plots of xPoints on x-axis and Points-xPoints of the y-axis. 2024 Miami is the luckiest, but Nashville this season isn't far behind
3416
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 07/09/2026
We took in a mother cat and her four kittens. We have homes for the mom and two of the kittens but need a forever home for the other two, preferably together. If you are or someone you know are in Nashville or vicinity and want a couple of sweet, cute, litter trained kittens please DM me.
Two adverts or kittens that need a forever 
home.
1195
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 31/08/2026
#Crew96
Gru meme
1. Let Courtois take over
2. Make Bez and offer he can't refuse
3. Trade away the kids and play Gbamblé for only 24 first team minutes in cups - wtf?
0150
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 27/08/2026
The positioning of the players on both teams is wild. Also, 2-1 after 12 min, this game is a banger.
What are we doing here?
290
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 13/08/2026
Diego, I miss you. #Crew96
0131
Reposted by Eliot McKinley
Matthew Doyle @mattdoyle.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
lawd almighty this deserved a goal
713511
Reposted by Eliot McKinley
Jibblescribbits @jibblescribbits.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
"Well, well, well. Not so easy to find a center back who doesn't get dunked on by Ketelaere, is it?"
Tim Ream In USA shirt
011024
Reposted by Eliot McKinley
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 22/06/2026
I wrote about this a couple years ago, but we're really confident Messi is just about an average penalty taker. www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2023/10...
Bayesian Messi penalties
54113
Reposted by Eliot McKinley
Max @oostermax.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Which Matt defends the net for a US-Belgium penalty shootout? The US has rotated both, but my model backs Matt Turner. Data gives him a 77% probability of being the superior career penalty stopper (other pk statistics below) #USABEL #BELUSA #FIFAWorldCup #WC2026 #WorldCup
261
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 03/07/2026
Curtis Silwa is asking the right questions.
Silwa says we need to check the balls
091
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 30/06/2026
Update: a false lice alarm at D&D camp.
No lice at D&D camp!
150
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 30/06/2026
Lice reported at your kid's D&D camp is not something I expected to ever hear.
Head lice reported at D&D camp
180
Reposted by Eliot McKinley
John Muller @johnspacemuller.com · 28/06/2026
Okay here's the entire Algeria possession 5 minutes and 34 seconds of completely uncontested midfield possession 109 completed passes And then they scored a goal
4567124
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 25/06/2026
I may quibble with the use of "momentum" but the utility of these sorts of plots is pretty obvious because people of see what they want in games and you can't watch them all. We wrote about this years ago and have updated them to actual likelihoods of scoring with g+. tinyurl.com/3p5hm8b9
americansocceranalysis.com
Expected Possession Goals GameFlow: Taking a Ride Into the Danger Zone — American Soccer Analysis
A few weeks ago, we introduced Expected Possession Goals (xPG) GameFlow , a visualization of the momentum of a soccer match from kickoff to final whistle of each game. xPG GameFlow uses the accumul...
3234
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 22/06/2026
I've had this one since '94.
c. 1995 NCAA blast c. 2026
190
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 22/06/2026
Really cool and thorough penalty analysis to show that Tim Melia is the GOAT penalty keeper.
030
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 22/06/2026
I wrote about this a couple years ago, but we're really confident Messi is just about an average penalty taker. www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2023/10...
Bayesian Messi penalties
54113
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 21/06/2026
Columbus Crew brand ambassador.
Frankie Hejduk on top of a truck with a beer
1643
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 19/06/2026
Tillman with the coffin corner kick off.
091
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 19/06/2026
static.klipy.com
Robin Sparkles: We Are Pretty Awesome!
Alt: Robin Sparkles: We Are Pretty Awesome!
170
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 18/06/2026
Miss Cucho
19218
Reposted by Eliot McKinley
Brian McKay @boomstyx.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
I’ve argued for a minute that MLS clubs should go multi-sport at the youth level. 1) to build greater community integration, but 2) bc if the org running your AAU team also runs a pro soccer academy, they might have more incentives to push kids to the sport they can succeed at.
3355
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 15/06/2026
Of course they show it immediately after I posted this.
0233
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 15/06/2026
Maybe I am misremebering, but didn't the 2022 World Cup broadcasts have a snickometer type thing shown where there were ambiguous ball touches? At least Telemundo didn't show that on Sweden's 4th goal.
230
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 13/06/2026
It's a great night for the United States. www.youtube.com/live/aAhm880...
youtube.com
LIVE: See Donald Trump's name come off the Kennedy Center as it happens
YouTube video by MS NOW
1120
Reposted by Eliot McKinley
Subscribe to Radio Free America (link in bio) @kleinman.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Thank you, birthright citizenship, for that goal
132295416
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 13/06/2026
STOP THE COUNT
100% deserved win
1150
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 11/06/2026
GameFlows will be generated for every World Cup game, but you should really just go download @futi.live instead.
050
Reposted by Eliot McKinley
Alexander Abnos @anabnos.com · 06/06/2026
It was a real pleasure to sit down with @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social and fill out a World Cup bracket. www.theguardian.com/football/vid...
theguardian.com
Zohran Mamdani plays the Guardian's Bracketology to predict World Cup winner – video
See how New York's mayor maps out the world’s biggest tournament
35314
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 04/06/2026
Seems that being anti-data center is mainstream. I just got an email from the Nashville Zoo to oppose one proposed for land adjacent to it.
Nashville Zoo Says NO to Proposed Data Center
As a Nashville Zoo member, you play an important role in helping us protect the animals and habitats in our care.



A proposed 69,000-square-foot data center is planned for property directly adjacent to the Zoo. While developers claim the facility will have no impact, no environmental studies or impact assessments have been conducted to evaluate potential effects on our animals, visitors, staff, or the surrounding community.

Data centers consume enormous amounts of electricity and water; straining power grids, depleting natural resources, and damaging our watershed. With nothing more than the word of a profit-seeking developer, how are we to know this new data center will not lead to irreversible damage to the animals we exist to protect?  


We cannot afford to find out years from now how this facility has negatively impacted our 1.4 million visitors, our local community, or the 3,000 animals entrusting us with their care. We are calling on the Nashville community to join us in our fight to stop this data center from being built, now.  



Please sign our petition and say yes to the Zoo by saying no to the new data center. Express your concern and help us protect our vulnerable animals and the environment we call home.
171
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 04/06/2026
I'm ready to shut down all vibe coded remembering some guys sites after this BS.
Of course it has to be Bazil 1970How does this team not win?
050
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 22/05/2026
Now the Crew just need to play some kids. www.thedisrespected.com/bezbatchenko...
thedisrespected.com
BEZ IS BACK
Exclamation point
0110
Reposted by Eliot McKinley
Michael Arace @michaelarace1.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
I rarely use capital letters or exclamation points, but I do here. Tim Bezbatchenko is returning to #Crew96 as Haslam Sports Group's President of Global Soccer. Let the sun shine in. #VamosColumbus No paywall on this one. Have a nice day. www.thedisrespected.com/bezbatchenko...
thedisrespected.com
BEZ IS BACK
Exclamation point
45214
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 19/05/2026
It’s happening.
2160
Reposted by Eliot McKinley
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 19/04/2026
Let Courtois take over and play the kids, this season is a write off. Also make Bez an offer he can’t refuse. #Crew96
2244
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 15/05/2026
Licking rats is back in the menu, boys
090
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 06/05/2026
I don't know exactly why this single seat offer was a thing, but I paid $7.52 after fees to go to the last Nashville SC game. Can't beat $1.25/goal.
$7.52 Nashville SC ticket
1191
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 05/05/2026
Kei Kamara will forever live on in soccer analytics as the example of how xG can never equal one. youtu.be/V_7atDXZexc?...
youtu.be
Gregg Berhalter on Kamara Miss
YouTube video by LA Galaxy
0232
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 20/04/2026
With most teams having played 8 games, the underlying stats are beginning to become useful while still noisy. Vancouver may be the best MLS team ever and SKC the worst. Both are performing as expected. There's a huge pack of average teams down on their luck.
Good lucky scatter plot for MLS 2026; SKC is atrocious, Vancouver is incrediblegood-lucky catter plot of all MLS teams since 2013
910225
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 20/04/2026
We were able to schedule a friendly with this team yesterday. The ref had to call the game early because parents were complaining too much about his calls, which is about the most American thing possible.
1120
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 19/04/2026
Let Courtois take over and play the kids, this season is a write off. Also make Bez an offer he can’t refuse. #Crew96
2244
Reposted by Eliot McKinley
American Soccer Analysis @americansocceranalysis.com · 15/04/2026
New research! @beninquiring.bsky.social replicated @eliotmckinley.com's work on throw ins, and added g+ in to see how teams can be smarter on the trendiest part of the game in 2026. With an interactive throw in visualizer! www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/4/...
americansocceranalysis.com
Throw-in It Back — American Soccer Analysis
Towards a manual for the most common restart By Ben Bellman Whether you love long attacking throw-ins or hate them, there is no denying that they’ve become both a key feature and flashpoint in m...
1229
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 29/03/2026
My son’s final game of a soccer tournament this morning was cancelled this morning because of increasing ICE activity in Nashville. I cannot wait for all the people that caused this to be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
ICE caused a u-12 soccer game to be cancelled because families were justifiably afraid of the secret police
524768
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 27/03/2026
It's great to see the Art Modell Law potentially going national. FWIW when he was an Austin city council member, Casar voted to provide public land to Anthony Precourt so he could move the Columbus Crew to Austin. I'm glad he learned a lesson from that.
Screenshot showing Greg Casar voted to allow the Columbus Crew move to Austin. via https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2018/08/15/300244/austin-city-council-votes-to-move-forward-with-major-league-soccer-stadium/
1458
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 24/03/2026
Gotta pay the Trump toll if you wanna get in that Persian Gulf hole.
media.tenor.com
a man and a woman are dancing on a stage in a dark room .
Alt: Troll toll
1101
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 21/03/2026
It’s Courtois time
070
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 15/03/2026
Not great, Henrik.
1110
Reposted by Eliot McKinley
Dan Nye @ohhidannye.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
One does not simply transition to relationism overnight
media.tenor.com
a man with his hand on his forehead with the words " one does not simply " above him
Alt: a man with his hand on his forehead with the words " one does not simply " above him. It's Boromir from The Fellowship of the Ring
251
Reposted by Eliot McKinley
cata @catabush.com · 09/03/2026
It took me a sec, but the xG dashboard is back for 2026! For those who weren't here last season, the dashboard uses @jamonm.bsky.social & @carloncarpenter.bsky.social's WGCF principles to break down MLS shots. Built using @americansocceranalysis.com data. public.tableau.com/app/profile/...
Screenshot of dashboard:

"How your team scores: MLS xg data"
various stat breakdowns and pitch graphic with shots shown as dots below
25810
Eliot McKinley @eliotmckinley.com · 09/03/2026
So that insane home advantage didn't survive week 3 of the 2026 MLS season (46th percentile now).
rolling points per game shows home advantage is back to normal in 2026
1131