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Jamie Hannaford

@jamiehannahydro.bsky.social
216 followers 202 following 43 posts

Hydrologist, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) Visiting Associate Prof, ICARUS Maynooth, Ireland Hydrological variability (floods and droughts) past, present and future!

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Jamie Hannaford @jamiehannahydro.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
@thestranger007.bsky.social sorry to bother you here.. I wrote a FB message to you re: potential booking as I don’t have your number… sorry! grateful if you could get back to me there or here! Thanks
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Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 02/10/2026
Europe didnt just experience an exceptionally hot summer in 2026. It experienced a summer where multiple climate extremes reinforced each other. First - temperature records were broken at daily, monthly and seasonal scales across Europe Read more: climate.copernicus.eu/summer-revie...
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 22/09/2026
I have a new piece out in Nature today on the record-breaking 2026/2027 El Niño, what impacts we should expect, and how governments can prepare. The Niño3.4 region is currently running more than 1C hotter than any prior event on record, and we remain months away from the peak www.nature.com/artic...
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Caroline O'Doherty @codohertynews.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
More drought - even when there's rain - latest analysis from @wasitusie.bsky.social @icarus-maynooth.bsky.social warns of difficult summers to come www.irishtimes.com/environment/...
irishtimes.com
Irish summers likely to feature ‘extreme evaporation’ due to climate change, say scientists
Even in wetter summers, drought set to be a perennial problem
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The latest UK Hydrological Summary reports an exceptionally hot, dry August, with rainfall at 81% of average. River flows and reservoir stocks remained low, while groundwater declined more slowly and soil moisture showed some recovery. nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/default/files/…
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
At #UNCCDCOP17, UKCEH joined the global community to tackle drought and land degradation. Melissa Allan reflects on making the Rio Synergies Agenda work across land, biodiversity, and climate. Blog: www.ceh.ac.uk/news-and-med... Paper: www.ceh.ac.uk/sites/defaul... #UNCCDCOP17 #ClimateAction
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Kees van der Leun @sustainable2050.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
As could be expected, the extremely warm waters of the Mediterranean - due to the record hot summer of 2026 - now lead to unprecedented rainfall, with flooding as a result. 70 mm is more than a month's worth of rain in Valencia, now delivered in 30 minutes. Try adapting to that. #climatechange
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Rage Against the Miocene @organiccarbon.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
www.theguardian.com/science/2026...
theguardian.com
Climate crisis likely behind devastating Nepal-Tibet floods that killed more than 1,300, first study finds
Scientists say global heating was a destabilising factor in collapse of 200,000 sq metre glacier in August
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Richard Allan @rpallanuk.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Water scarcity across much of UK by August 2026 after record summer of #heatwave + #drought with depleted groundwater & river flows and restrictions on usage; prolonged wet weather needed to alleviate moisture deficits based on @ukceh.bsky.social hydrological summary: nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/defaul...
Map showing below normal rainfall across majority of UK in August and almost all of UK over whole summer 2026Map showing depleted river flow across UK apart from northwest Scotland in August and summer 2026Map showing depleted groundwater across most of UK in August 2026Map showing variable soil moisture over UK in August 2026
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Climate, Ecology, War & More: Dr. Glen Barry BigEarthData.ai @bigearthdata.ai · 12/09/2026
Global drought shows no detectable recent acceleration under climate warming ->Nature | More on "Global drought trends and climate change" at BigEarthData.ai | #Climate #Drought #Water
nature.com
Global drought shows no detectable recent acceleration under climate warming
Drought is a major constraint on freshwater availability, ecosystem functioning, and food security1,2,3,4, and its evolution under global warming remains a central concern in climate impact assessments5,6,7. Numerous studies have reported increasing drought severity and expanding drought-affected areas over recent decades8,9,10,11,12, drawing on converging evidence from multivariate atmospheric drought indices, which combine precipitation with atmospheric evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration (PET), calculated from near-surface atmospheric variables) to infer surface drought conditions5,11,13, together with independent, hydrological evidence such as observation-calibrated soil moisture reconstructions14, remotely sensed terrestrial water storage15, and observed streamflow declines16. However, substantial quantitative uncertainties remain specifically in the magnitude of drought trends inferred from PET-based drought indices, as such inferences depend critically on how atmospheric evaporative demand is estimated17,18,19,20. Given that PET-based indices remain among the most widely used tools for characterizing large-scale, long-term drought variability owing to their global data coverage and standardized formulation, these uncertainties arguably affect our ability to anticipate future hydroclimatic impacts and complicate downstream adaptation decision-making. Beyond the qualitative consensus of drought intensification, whether hydroclimatic extremes are accelerating (i.e., intensifying at an increasing rate) has recently emerged as a pertinent scientific question, motivated by two related lines of evidence: recent reports that global surface warming...
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Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan @london.gov.uk · 10/09/2026
A dark blizzard of disinformation is warping the public’s perception of our great city. But we know the truth: our homicide rate is lower than every major US city, neighbourhood crimes are down and we’ve been ranked #1 city in the world 11 years in a row. My piece for The Times.
thetimes.com
We must fight back against troll army’s lies about London
There is a dark blizzard of disinformation online, where our capital is described as a lawless dystopia in decline — this couldn’t be further from the truth
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Jamie Hannaford @jamiehannahydro.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Spot on!!
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
UK Hydrological Outlook: A wetter-than-average autumn expected but a regional contrast likely for river flows 💧 Above normal flows in northern and western areas; Groundwater levels and river flows likely to stay below normal to notably low in south of England; More normal conditions elsewhere. 1/
Map of UK with shaded areas showing principal aquifers, plus details from September 2026 UK Hydrological Outlook
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 07/09/2026
We haven’t just changed our weather. We’ve changed the climate in which our weather happens. climatelabbook.substack.com/p/learning-f...
climatelabbook.substack.com
Learning from the summers of 1976 and 2026
We have changed the climate in which our weather happens
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 01/09/2026
Summer 2026 is provisionally the UK’s warmest summer on record with the season’s mean temperature made around 130 times more likely due to human-induced climate change. Here, we delve into the numbers 🧵
Mean temperature for 2026 in the UK. The map shows widely above average temperature, particularly in the south. Rainfall amounts in summer 2026 in the UK compared to average. The maps shows widely dry conditions, though the west of Scotland is slightly wetter than averageSunshine duration in summer 2026 compared to average. The map shows widely sunny conditions in the season, with the south of the country particularly sunny.
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
The FDRI Digital Platform is live! 💻 Access and analyse open source, whole water cycle data from across the UK. 📈 We’re making hydrological measurements more accessible and quicker to use by bringing together datasets and analytical tools. 1/
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
A striking finding from global drought experiments: Trees show little evidence of physiological acclimation to drought. The inner hydraulic machinery stays the same. The safety margin shrinks. That’s a very different, more vulnerable picture of forest resilience. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
Declining hydraulic safety in a drier world | PNAS
Forests worldwide are increasingly exposed to soil drought under climate change, with their fates depending on the ability to maintain essential fu...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Projection has become reality 22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
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Matt Fry @mattfry-ukceh.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
We'll be launching an early version of our FDRI Digital Platform at the @britishhydrosoc.bsky.social Symposium in Leeds at the beginning of September. If you can't make it keep an eye on the FDRI website (fdri.org.uk), sign up for our newsletter, and join this webinar.
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
The UK Hydrological Summary for July looks back at an unprecedented month. It was the driest July in both England and Wales, and third driest of any month for England (in records from 1890). Low flows in many catchments, reservoir stocks decline, dry soils... Full summary tinyurl.com/53ejhrpd
Map indicating river flows in the UK in July 2026 with key. Sites circled recorded record low flows
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
UKCEH is attending #UNCCDCOP17 this month, discussing science that strengthens land, soil and drought resilience 🌏. If you're at COP17, we'd love to connect! Speak with us about our work helping to advance practical solutions for healthy, resilient ecosystems. www.unccd.int/cop17/progra...
Four UKCEH people and their job titles, the UNCCD COP17 logo and text: UKCEH at UNCCD COP17, Strengthening land, soil and drought resilience, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 17-28 August 2026
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Richard Allan @rpallanuk.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Exceptional southern UK aridity July 2026 @ukceh.bsky.social - record low rainall in England & Wales, heatwaves & wildfires, exceptionally dry soils & low river flows + declining reservoir/groundwater reserves resulting in flash #drought set to persist into Autumn: nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/defaul...
Map showing low groundwater across the UK in July 2026Map showing extreme rainfall deficit in southern UK in July 2026Map showing low river flows in the UK in July 2026Map showing exceptionally dry soils in southern UK in July 2026
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Prof Richard Betts @richardabetts.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Nope, it’s the weeks of hot, dry weather made more severe by global heating due to fossil fuel burning that has increased the risk of wildfires. The landscape is so dry that any ignition can start a fire that becomes uncontrollable. Fields of crops and grasses are not “rewilded” but have burned
Front page of the Daily Mail newspaper “eclipse special” with headline “Rewilding link to record fires”, beneath a photograph of people watching the near-total eclipse of the sun with the title “Britain finally gets a break from the sun (for a few minutes!)”
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
After record low July rainfall, what's next for UK river flows? Below normal to exceptionally low flows across England, Wales & NE Scotland will continue with record lows anticipated for August & drought impacts into the autumn. 🎥 Dr Katie Facer-Childs with the latest UK Hydrological Outlook.
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Philip Ball @philipcball.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
I thought I'd repost this piece quoting the first sentence. Then I thought, no, the first paragraph. No, the first three. And I went on doing that until the final word. www.theguardian.com/books/ng-int...
theguardian.com
‘I hate what AI is doing to the minds and happiness of the young’: Katherine Rundell on the view from the classroom
Education is at a crossroads, argues the author and academic. Should we embrace new technology in the name of efficiency, or is it time to fight back?
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
☀️ The hot, dry summer is having major impacts on people, nature & water resources. 🚜 Farmers harvesting crops early 🔥 Wildfire and algal bloom risks increasing 💧 Millions of people facing restrictions on water use 📉 Low river flows in many rivers UK Water Resources Portal: ukwrp.ceh.ac.uk
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National Emergency Briefing @nebriefing.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Prof Hayley Fowler, at the #NationalEmergencyBriefing last November, explaining why wildfires are a growing problem - and why extreme weather is worsening faster than climate models predicted. #TimeToStepUp
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Through the National Capability for Global Challenges programme, UKCEH is supporting the people, skills and partnerships needed to tackle climate and environmental challenges worldwide. Find out how we're helping build scientific capacity around the world: www.ceh.ac.uk/case-studies... 🌍🧪
A small group of people stand beside a riverbank, with one controlling a small remote controlled boat in the river.A small of group of people, some of whom are holding long poles, stand in a muddy track beside a small riverSeveral people sit in a meeting room looking at a speaker standing behind a lectern with a presentation screen on the wall behind.
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Chris Lintott @chrislintott.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Short-sighted, stupid cuts to the UKRI budget include shutting down Jodrell Bank, the icon of British astronomy. (Many other cuts too, including 20% to our brand new @vrubinobs.bsky.social). Interesting politically to shut down a major facility in...um..Manchester 🔭 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Jodrell Bank's Lovell telescope faces axe in science cuts, BBC understands
Astronomers warn it would tear the heart out of UK science, and leave a generation untrained.
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World Weather Attribution @wwattribution.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
➡️ Climate change is driving drought in Europe - but not how you might expect. While there isn't a clear signal for climate change impacting the dry weather, extreme heat is sucking more moisture out of the landscape. (1/3)
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James Bullock @jmbecologist.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Learn about our (@ukceh.bsky.social) on global environmental challenges “Net Zero and beyond: measuring climate risks, managing trade‑offs, and enabling adaptation” An online conference Wednesday 22nd July www.tickettailor.com/events/ukcen...
tickettailor.com
Reserve a spot – Net Zero and beyond: measuring climate risks, managing trade‑offs, and enabling adaptation – Microsoft Teams
Net Zero and beyond: measuring climate risks, managing trade‑offs, and enabling adaptation – Microsoft Teams, Wed 22 Jul 2026 - Join us to discover the advancements in science made through our Nationa...
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
The drought in spring & summer 2025 was followed by an abrupt transition to wetter than average conditions in the autumn, continuing into the winter and early part of 2026. UKCEH hydrologist Rachael Armitage looks back at these ‘transitions’ in a new blog post: www.ceh.ac.uk/news-and-med... 3/
Bar chart showing seasonal rainfall totals for winter, spring, summer, autumn at UKCEH Wallingford from 2010
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
The 2025 State of the UK Climate report highlights how rapidly the UK's climate is changing The report, with input from UKCEH, puts the year and decade into historical context. 2025 was the UK’s warmest year on record and there has been warming of ~0.25°C per decade since the 1980s. 1/
View across dry fields
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Wiley Ecology, Environment and Sustainability​​ @wileyecology.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Observations continue to show unprecedented changes in the UK’s climate. Recent decades have been warmer, wetter and sunnier than the 20th Century. 📖 Read the latest analysis on the State of the UK Climate: bit.ly/4wyWuzw @rmets.org @metoffice.gov.uk @noc.ac.uk #climatechange
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Jamie Hannaford @jamiehannahydro.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Really pleased @ukceh.bsky.social have had the opportunity to add hydrology into the state of the @metoffice.gov.uk UK Climate report for the first time - reporting on the impact of last year's drought (summer 2026 shaping up to be quite something too...) and how river flows are changing over time.
map of UK showing a drought index (Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index) averaged over 6 months (SPEI-6) for March - August 2025. For a number of regions covering the UK.
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
The recent exceptionally hot, dry conditions have changed the situation, as our Water Resources Portal shows. Water resources are generally healthy following winter/early spring rainfall, but hot, dry weather from May has increased demand and accelerated declines in river flows & soil moisture. 3/
Screengrab from UK Water Resources Portal dated 11 July showing river flow situation generally in GB and trend for three selected river flow stations
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
June's UK Hydrological Summary shows a month of two halves: above-average rainfall early, then heatwave/extreme heat warnings. By end June river flows were above normal in north-west UK and S Wales; mostly normal or below elsewhere but notably low flows in eastern Scotland & East Anglia 1/
Map of UK showing river flows at selected rivers in June 2026
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Nature Water @natwater.nature.com · 09/07/2026
Perspective in Nature Water by Marthe Linda Kris Wens and colleagues presents a synthesis of ten insights from recent drought research, emphasizing the need for actionable strategies to address the multifaceted impacts of droughts. www.nature.com/articles/s44...
nature.com
Ten key insights and gaps to inform drought risk research, policy and practice - Nature Water
This Perspective synthesizes ten key insights from drought research for policy and practice, and identifies priority research gaps to strengthen drought governance and resilience.
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
💷 ✅ Far-reaching economic, environmental and societal benefits: The value of UKCEH's environmental science has been independently assessed. Analysis by London Economics Ltd estimates that UKCEH generated £440 million+ in economic and social value in 2024, a representative year. 🧪 1/
Infographic with points illustrating the economic impact of the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 22/06/2026
Why a 1976-style heatwave in the UK would be even more extreme today www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti...
bbc.co.uk
Why a 1976-style heatwave in the UK would be even more extreme today
Matt Taylor looks at new research that shows that a repeat today of the weather patterns that brought the 1976 heatwave would bring even more extreme heat.
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Matt Patterson @mattpattclimate.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
These temperatures are wildly unprecedented for June in the UK but the Met Office study, Kay et al (2025), looked at simulations of a stationary 2023 climate and found even 40C+ June days are very possible in the current climate (see figure 3f). rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 20/06/2026
Every stripe tells a story. Of changing seasons. Of rising temperatures. Of a warming world that is already affecting our landscapes, our food & our future. But this story isn't finished. The choices we make today will shape the world inherited by the next generations. #ShowYourStripes
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Droughts are becoming more frequent, severe, and widespread. With over two billion people projected to be exposed by 2100, the need for robust, harmonised monitoring systems has never been more urgent. www.ceh.ac.uk/case-studies... #DesertificationAndDroughtDay #UNited4Land
ceh.ac.uk
Harnessing the latest drought science to inform a global framework
Prepared by scientists at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, the Good Practice Guide provides a globally applicable framework for monitoring drought hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.
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Richard Allan @rpallanuk.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Showery then record #heatwave in May 2026 over UK ending another dry spring with low river flows, dry soils mostly in south & variable groundwater, with temporary respite in an early wet June based on @ukceh.bsky.social assessment: nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/defaul...
Map showing low rainfall over much of UK in May & spring 2026Map showing low river flows over much of UK in May 2026Map showing variable groundwater across UK in May 2026Map showing dry soils over southern UK in May 2026
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 11/06/2026
Today’s Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) report shows the entire climate system is continuing to heat with global greenhouse gas emissions reaching an all-time high. essd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
“We are emitting more greenhouse gases than ever before, causing rising greenhouse gas levels which are trapping more and more heat in the atmosphere and pushing the world out of balance.”
Dr Matt Palmer, Met Office science fellow
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
A good summary of some of the challenges with using AI in climate. There are important distinctions between modelling & emulation, & trade-offs with cost (computational time), that too few people discuss & understand. @sjonearth.bsky.social arstechnica.com/science/2026...
arstechnica.com
The weather and climate science AI revolution isn’t revolutionary
Machine learning has its limits—how is it being used?
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Thomas Piketty @thomaspiketty.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
I am among the more than 350 signatories who have put their names to support the “roadmap for eradicating poverty beyond growth”. Read the opinion piece: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
We economists have done the maths: ‘growth’ is a doomed strategy – there is a better way | Olivier De Schutter and others
Our roadmap has been shaped by experts across the world. We call on political leaders at all levels to use it, says Olivier De Schutter and others
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ECMWF @ecmwf.int · 10/06/2026
In our seasonal forecast from 1 June 2026, we are introducing the Relative Niño indices. Recommended by @wmo-global.bsky.social, this is an additional measure of El Niño strength alongside more traditional Niño 3.4 SST anomalies. It's expected to be readily adopted. ➡️ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...
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James Bullock @jmbecologist.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Scientists using LLMs (AI) to write/modify text & to précis the literature is a slippery slope Scientific training is about learning how to: write clearly & succinctly, assess the literature, develop our own knowledge, & be critical thinkers Using LLMs to do these undermines scientific integrity
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The Royal Society @royalsociety.org · 07/06/2026
Professor Hayley Fowler FRS is elected a Fellow of the Royal Society. She is an internationally-recognised leader in hydroclimatic extremes and has transformed our understanding of extreme rainfall and flood risk. #RSFellows bit.ly/4ucatcV
A woman in a colourful top and black cardigan smiles in front of a plant and office background. She is wearing glasses.
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