James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Are you interested in using serology to detect hidden infections, model immune responses, and estimate epidemic dynamics? You may be interested in the new 1.2.0 release of the R package, serosolver: seroanalytics.org/serosolver/i... 2174
Reposted by James HayJames Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 22/06/2026Are you a computational immunologist or bioinformatician interested in impactful vaccine research? We're hiring a postdoc to join @psioxford.bsky.social work in vaccine immunology and evaluation, working on the ChAdOx1 Nipah vaccine. Please get in touch! my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...my.corehr.comJob Details 0515
James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 22/06/2026Are you a computational immunologist or bioinformatician interested in impactful vaccine research? We're hiring a postdoc to join @psioxford.bsky.social work in vaccine immunology and evaluation, working on the ChAdOx1 Nipah vaccine. Please get in touch! my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...my.corehr.comJob Details 0515
James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 30/04/2026It was absolutely wonderful to write something again with @skissler.bsky.social, @danlarremore.bsky.social and Aishani Aatresh. Here's our new review/perspective on the value of measuring and modelling viral kinetics as part of routine surveillance: royalsocietypublishing.org/rstb/article...royalsocietypublishing.orgIntegrating viral kinetics into routine outbreak surveillance: challenges, opportunities and lessons from COVID-19Abstract. Viral kinetics provide crucial insights into the biology and epidemiology of infections, with direct implications for basic science, therapeutics 0134
James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 17/04/2026Delighted to share the (preprint) output of @mhairijan.bsky.social's Oxford visit: SARS-CoV-2 Neutralising Antibody Profiles Reveal Variant Specific Antibody Dynamics and Regional Differences in Infection Histories in Malawi. dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...ssrn.comSARS-CoV-2 Neutralising Antibody Profiles Reveal Variant Specific Antibody Dynamics and Regional Differences in Infection Histories in MalawiBackground: Serological data provide important insights into SARS-CoV-2 transmission and immunity, particularly in regions with limited routine surveillance suc 075
Reposted by James HayMegan O'Driscoll @meganodris.bsky.social · 18/12/2025The final piece of my PhD work is now published in Science Translational Medicine! We present a new framework to jointly infer epidemiological and antigenic parameters from multi-pathogen population serological studies🦠 www.science.org/stoken/autho... 13213
James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 11/12/2025Great take. We looked at the data a few weeks ago and concluded that other than starting early, this year's dynamics are comparable to previous bad seasons. Our scenario models suggest a peak in infections (not hospitalisations which lag 1/2 weeks) in early/mid December. zenodo.org/records/1770...zenodo.orgEvaluation of the epidemiological outlook of the influenza A/H3N2 clade K in England during the 2025-26 seasonKey findings England is currently experiencing a high growth rate of infections caused by the influenza A/H3N2 K clade. Antigenic change from the previously dominant clade, a rapid selective sweep evi... 13511
Reposted by James HayProf Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · 11/12/2025🧵 Is it a super flu year? Who knows, but I think the current reporting is stupid. A pissed off thread using data. Firstly - here are today's headlines and some from the last 3 years... spot the difference. 1/10 18471228
Reposted by James HayIan M. Mackay, PhD (he/him) 🦠🤧🧬📑🦟🧀 @mackayim.bsky.social · 10/12/2025WHO Disease Update Notification: Seasonal influenza 🦠Since August 2025, there's been a rapid increase of A(H3N2) J.2.4.1 subclade K driving early & prolonged seasons 🦠Vaccine helps against hospitalisation, unclear about milder impact 🦠K induces "normal" disease spectrum www.who.int/emergencies/...who.intSeasonal influenza - Global situationSeasonal influenza (‘the flu’) is an acute respiratory infection caused by influenza viruses that circulate globally and year-round. It can cause illness ranging from mild to severe, sometimes resulti... 0198
Reposted by James HayNetScience @netscience.bsky.social · 05/12/2025Random time-shift approximation enables hierarchical Bayesian inference of mechanistic within-host viral dynamics models on large datasets journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol...journals.plos.orgRandom time-shift approximation enables hierarchical Bayesian inference of mechanistic within-host viral dynamics models on large datasetsAuthor summary Understanding how viruses reproduce within an infected host is crucial for predicting disease progression and evaluating treatments. One way to study this is by using mathematical model... 073
James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 25/11/2025H3N2 preprint: there are concerns of a severe incoming influenza season due to the drifted H3N2 K clade. We at @psioxford.bsky.social analysed epi data and ran scenario models to see what we could discern about K clade transmission dynamics: zenodo.org/records/1770.... (1/18)zenodo.orgEvaluation of the epidemiological outlook of the influenza A/H3N2 clade K in England during the 2025-26 seasonKey findings England is currently experiencing a high growth rate of infections caused by the influenza A/H3N2 K clade. Antigenic change from the previously dominant clade, a rapid selective sweep evi... 12815
Reposted by James HayCaitlin Rivers @cmyeaton.bsky.social · 20/11/2025In Texas' public health region 6/5S, which includes Houston, the number of emergency department visits for influenza is already almost on par with the *peak* of last year. 27127
Reposted by James HayYonatan Grad @yhgrad.bsky.social · 20/11/2025Now out in @natcomms.nature.com Kudos to @tylim.bsky.social and @jameshay.bsky.social for a huge effort and thanks to all the collaborators for their hard work. See the final version here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...nature.com 02011
Reposted by James HayCCDD @ccdd-hsph.bsky.social · 21/11/2025New study shows that shifts in SARS‑CoV‑2 Ct value distributions can help nowcast epidemic trends, revealing both strong potential and key real‑world limitations for Ct‑based surveillance. From CCDD alumni TY Lim & @jameshay.bsky.social and faculty @yhgrad.bsky.social at bit.ly/4o37EaNbit.lyNowcasting epidemic trends using hospital- and community-based virologic test data - Nature CommunicationsPopulation-level distributions of SARS-CoV-2 viral load can correlate with epidemic trends. Here, the authors use viral loads to nowcast epidemic growth rates over two-week periods and investigate how... 0124
Reposted by James HayDavid Hodgson @dchodge.bsky.social · 23/09/2025🚨 New paper out in PLOS Computational Biology! 🚨 We're excited to share our new paper, serojump, a new probabilistic framework and R package for inferring infections and antibody kinetics from longitudinal serological data. 📄 Full paper: tinyurl.com/re7du3t2 R package: seroanalytics.org/serojumpseroanalytics.orgA serological inference package using reversible jump mcmcThe `serojump` package provides tools for fitting serological models to antibody kinetics data using reversible-jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJ-MCMC). It enables researchers to model the dynamics of... 2195
Reposted by James HayJames Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 07/07/2025Excited to share our paper on viral load dynamics of West Nile virus in mosquitoes! Key findings: 1. Variation in pooled Ct values from mosquito traps reflect underlying biological and epidemiological mechanisms. 2. WNV prevalence estimates are improved by using Cts rather than +ve/-ve pool status. 02710
James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 11/07/2025We're hiring a modelling postdoc at PSI Oxford for two exciting projects: 1) modelling the early immune responses to Nipah vaccination, and 2) joining the PRESTO team working on immunobridging in vaccine evaluation studies. tinyurl.com/5abbxrjh Get in touch for more info! Deadline 4th August.tinyurl.comJob Details 01612
James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 07/07/2025Excited to share our paper on viral load dynamics of West Nile virus in mosquitoes! Key findings: 1. Variation in pooled Ct values from mosquito traps reflect underlying biological and epidemiological mechanisms. 2. WNV prevalence estimates are improved by using Cts rather than +ve/-ve pool status. 02710
Reposted by James HayJoanna Masel @joannamasel.bsky.social · 07/02/2025Our latest paper www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... shows that mass PCR testing could control a range of potential respiratory pandemics at low societal cost. We also explore logistics. Even a prototype would be really nice now with H5N1. @jameshay.bsky.social 1/9sciencedirect.comEnhanced testing can substantially improve defense against several types of respiratory virus pandemicMass testing to identify and isolate infected individuals is a promising approach for reducing harm from the next acute respiratory virus pandemic. It… 1209
Reposted by James HayChris Wymant @chriswymant.bsky.social · 30/01/2025Two postdoc positions to work on virus epi & evolution in response to vaccination, with both theoretical models + data analysis. Paris/Montpellier. With Sylvain Gandon, Sébastien Lion, François Blanquart, Katrina Lythgoe, & Troy Day emploi.cnrs.fr/Offres/CDD/U... emploi.cnrs.fr/Offres/CDD/U...emploi.cnrs.fr Portail Emploi CNRS - Offre d'emploi - Chercheur.e postdoctoral H/F en épidémiologie évolutive 022
James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 08/01/2025Hello influenza enthusiasts! You may be interested in our recent publication linked below. We used multi-strain serology to figure out who got infected with which A/H3N2 influenza strain and when, allowing us to reconstruct epidemiological patterns back to 1968 stratified by time, age and location. 23817
Reposted by James HayJames Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 07/12/2024Are you interested in analysing serological data for infectious disease epidemiology? Check out our new review article on serodynamics! With Saki Takahashi at JHU and Isobel Routledge at UCSF. (See next comment if you're into serology modeling) www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...sciencedirect.comSerodynamics: A primer and synthetic review of methods for epidemiological inference using serological dataWe present a review and primer of methods to understand epidemiological dynamics and identify past exposures from serological data, referred to as ser… 34414
James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 07/12/2024Are you interested in analysing serological data for infectious disease epidemiology? Check out our new review article on serodynamics! With Saki Takahashi at JHU and Isobel Routledge at UCSF. (See next comment if you're into serology modeling) www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...sciencedirect.comSerodynamics: A primer and synthetic review of methods for epidemiological inference using serological dataWe present a review and primer of methods to understand epidemiological dynamics and identify past exposures from serological data, referred to as ser… 34414
Reposted by James HayJames Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 20/11/2024New study tracking epidemic dynamics using cycle threshold values (a proxy for viral load) from routine hospital and community testing. This is the next step of our work from 2021 showing that the population distribution of Ct values over time is related to SARS-CoV-2 epidemic growth rates. 1309
James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 20/11/2024New study tracking epidemic dynamics using cycle threshold values (a proxy for viral load) from routine hospital and community testing. This is the next step of our work from 2021 showing that the population distribution of Ct values over time is related to SARS-CoV-2 epidemic growth rates. 1309
Reposted by James HayMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis @mrc-outbreak.bsky.social · 15/11/2024NEW EPISODE #ScienceInContext! This week Dr @eonore.bsky.social speaks with Dr @jameshay.bsky.social of the Big Data Institute about influenza: who, where and when influenza infections are likely to occur using antibody profiles and individual infection histories 👇 youtu.be/Ux6yDWO_c8Iyoutu.beYouTubeShare your videos with friends, family, and the world 153
James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 08/11/2024Reconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories using multistrain serology, paper out in PLOS Biology plos.io/3YIDQpt! We inferred lifetime infections and antibody levels for 1130 individuals in Guangzhou, China, giving insights into long-term influenza incidence and immunity. Thread below:plos.ioReconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life courseHow do repeated influenza infections generate such a complex immunological landscape? This study of influenza A/H3N2 in humans estimated lifetime infection histories for 1,130 individuals, reconstruct... 13518
James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 06/04/2024New preprint: Reconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life course www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...medrxiv.orgReconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life coursemedRxiv - The Preprint Server for Health Sciences 1124