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Reposted by Jacob Weindling

George Pearkes @peark.es · 10h

Here’s an extremely brief effort to explain why bond yields going up is actually not bad news.

September 28, 2026
Rates. 10y yields briefly traded above 5.2% today, closing up 7 bps on the session. As shown below, they're the farthest from fair value that they've been in some time based on our qualitative model.
Bespoke 10y Yield Fair Value Model: Past Year
5.25
5.00
— 10y Yield (%)
10y Extreme Cheap
9/22/2026, First Fed
hike
4.75
4.50
10y Moderate
Cheap
4.25
4.00
10y Moderate Rich
3.75
3.50
7/25/2023, Last Fed
hike
9/18/2024, First Fed
12/10/2025, Last Fed
cut
cut
10y Extreme Rich
3.25
%
Our model assumes 2% inflation over the long term plus an inflation risk premium (35 bps, to use explicit TIPS pricing). With those values fixed, below we show the implicit growth (including risk premium around growth) forecast from the market given the consensus range of term premium (after backing out some amount off growth risk premium).
Current pricing assumes trend growth above 2% and rising.
Market-Implied Growth + Growth Risk Premium: 5.25% Is The Promised Land
10y UST Yield

Term Premium

-0.4
-0.2

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8

1.2
1.4

3.00
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25
0.05
-0.15
-0.35
-0.55
-0.75

3.25
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50
0.30
0.10
-0.10
-0.30
-0.50

3.50
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75
0.55
0.35
0.15
-0.05
-0.25

3.75
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

4.00
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25

4.25
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50

4.50
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75

4.75
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00

5.00
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25

5.25
3.30
3.10
2.90
2.70
2.50
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50

5.50
3.55
3.35
3.15
2.95
2.75
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75

5.75
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00

6.00
4.05
3.85
3.65
3.45
3.25
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
Range of TP Estimates
Note: Assumes 35 bps inflation risk premium, 2% inflation. Term does not include growth or inflation risk premium.

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Reposted by Jacob Weindling

Dave Levitan @davelevitan.bsky.social · 13h

A fuckup so dumb even NYT homepage/headline writers have no choice but to describe it accurately

As Jack Smith Testifies, a Senator’s Accusation of Perjury Falters

A Republican eager to prove the former special counsel was dishonest appeared to instead demonstrate his own confusion over basic facts.

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 19h

Starting to think that Republicans might not actually be Caitlin Clark fans

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 19h

Republicans don't know ball, part eleventy billion

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

These people are trying to leverage the fear of this moment to scam their way into power forever

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gamera obscura @ohrobin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Google earth has updated its satellite images of Gaza. The destruction is almost incomprehensible.

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Gregg Rosenthal @greggrosenthal.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Bo Nix has never played a normal game

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Preeti Chhibber @runwithskizzers.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

new favorite baker just dropped (I am finally watching the new ep of Bake Off)

screenshots from the latest season of British Bake Off of a chef named Mo, he's a tan skinned young man. He's got dark hair falling over his forehead and a beard. He's saying, "I come with a lot of baggage, but it's, like, the good baggage."

Mo continued, "Like Louis Vuitton baggage."

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The Cowboys continue to be the greatest slapstick comedy act that 21st century America has produced

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Between country music and iced coffee discourse it seems like I chose the right week to log off

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Been at a wedding and have been to busy to post but this is important enough to log online: UMASS CFP SZN

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Any serious country would fire these "companies" into the sun

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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Really good stuff in this:

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Michael @michaeljsc.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

btw you might be thinking “I’ve seen loads of screenshots on the feed, I don’t need to read the whole piece” but take it from me, you do

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ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · 23/09/2026

they were wishcasting. they thought "well, it's not exactly great that Trump won, but at least he is going to take the wokes down a peg or three. we are frankly eager for him to curb stomp MeToo, BLM, Gaza protestors, every union organizer, etc"

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Earnest drunk posting hours: fuck I love this city

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

This was excellent and all the people hating on it don't know ball

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I saw this coming in our Splinter analytics dashboard in April 2025 and it felt like getting a first look at the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Yes but if you combine shelter CPI and mortgage rates into a single mortgage payment index this is what it looks like @proptermalone.bsky.social. Obviously this isn't most people's mortgage rate but it obviously matters a lot! (Also stop citing UMich data)

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Went on a pilgrimage to the holy land tonight

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

If you vote for Gavin Newsom you are the literal definition of a sucker

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

These freaks are going to tear each other apart after the midterms

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jj skolnik @supremenothing.myatproto.social · 22/09/2026

just want to say that when a politician campaigns on/publicly states transphobic positions it will actually be reflected in policy and is not some sort of 4d chess electoral rhetoric move

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I Travel Like Sound Dog @chadstanton.blacksky.app · 22/09/2026

The outright refusal to treat white supremacy as an ideology which motivates action and treat it as generally objectionable is what allows this strategy to be viable for Elon Musk.

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Starting to think that waging a relentless campaign of economic warfare on farmers is backfiring for the GOP

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

We complain a lot about Democratic politicians on here but in 2020 Democratic voters proved they also suffer from a severe deficit of imagination. Like half the party feels permanently stuck in stasis.

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Peter @notalawyer.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

“transplant” discourse is great because you get to see how easily people can swaddle their insular, reactionary beliefs with left-coded language

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Love landing in Boston at 1 am and immediately getting stuck in traffic on Storrow. I love my 2nd home but everyone who drives here has something seriously wrong with their brain.

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💙🪄 Keep Rising 🪄💙 @keeprising.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

♥️ if ya need a smile 🎂🐶♥️😘 enjoy this precious moment 🐶

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Chiefs not getting a call where millimeters separate them from a win, the universe is healing

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Mike Golic Jr @mikegolicjr.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Quinn Meinerz said I am returning you to Mother Earth

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Jacob Weindling @jakeweindling.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Thankful I have to pack for a trip and rush to the airport now instead of being incandescently mad at Davis Webb and the Broncos offense

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CJ Fogler @cjzero.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

I did indeed

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Sydney Bauer @sydney-bauer.com · 20/09/2026

People should be mad they’ve been manipulated but also I hope people wonder why even in conditions that allow participation that there’s less than 10 *out* collegiate trans athletes that this group could find. There’s over 200,000 division 1 college athletes, for example.

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Fanzine. Moxism was always the right way @fanzine.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

It's even sweeter because sharaf called this motherfucker a rapist to his face and then knocked his ass out

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