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Jack Fitzgerald

@jackfitzgerald.bsky.social
1.5K followers 267 following 193 posts

Economics PhD candidate at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and the Tinbergen Institute. Working on applied econometrics, replication, and economics of science. jack-fitzgerald.github.io. Likes/reposts aren’t endorsements, views are my own.

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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Over the past two years, I4R partnered with Psychological Science (@psychscience.bsky.social) on a large reproducibility project. 67 independent teams reproduced 64 articles published in 2024–2025, about 44% of eligible papers. Paper: www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10... Here's what we learned 🧵
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Yesterday, I had the honor of defending my dissertation and earning my PhD in Economics and Business Administration with cum laude distinction. In October, I will be joining the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford as a Postdoctoral Scholar. I'm excited for the road ahead!
Me, holding my PhD diploma.
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP) @socscipredict.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
📣 Does involving journal editors in replication material requests impact the availability of such materials? @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social and coauthors invite your predictions! 🕐Time: 15 min 🗓️ Closes: Sept 15 📚 Field: Economics socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/30...
socialscienceprediction.org
The Impact of Journal Involvement on Availability of Replication Materials
I subject the models defending 135 null claims in 81 articles recently published in top economics journals to equivalence testing, which assesses whether an estimate is significantly bounded within a ...
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
In today's dose of dystopia, here's an ad I get hit with every time I use my preferred citation service
Ad for AI detector service reading: "Using AI for your paper? Professors Can Detect It. Check & Humanize Before Submitting. 99% Detection Accuracy. High Readability as Human. Real-time AI Detection. One-click humanization. Score human on all detectors."
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
An update on our log-like specifications paper! We’ve updated our recommendations and added new commands in Stata and R for one of our recommended alternatives. 1/ osf.io/preprints/me...
osf.io
OSF
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Happy to have the CBS Replication Games (and my replication research more broadly) featured on the ODISSEI Podcast! Tune in if you're interested in hearing @drtomemery.bsky.social and I nerd out over replication!
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
ODISSEI @odissei.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
How can games change research culture? 🧩 On this month's ODISSEI podcast, @drtomemery.bsky.social talks with Jack Fitzgerald about replication, and why it needs to be more embedded in research. That's why the Replication Games were developed, Jack explains. 🎧 Tune in to learn more: edu.nl/eqhuc
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Our paper on the effect of large language models on replicators' success in conducting reproducibility + robustness checks is now published at PNAS. Before advocating that we let AI completely take over the replication process, please read our paper! doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
doi.org
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
Ok what's the funniest part? I'm personally a fan of the unhinged 'best of luck' email signoff, though a close second is starting the email off with 'Hi Doctor, Hey.'
Subject line: Your Article Is Needed For Page Layout

Hi Doctor,

Hey. We are writing to you right away about the invitation we sent you in March 2026.

We haven't received your manuscript yet, even though we've talked about it before. We're very close to finishing the next issue of [redacted].

This is your last chance to say for sure that you will be there.

We don't want to close this issue without giving you one last chance to send in your most recent work because your academic work has always been very useful to the scientific community.

We really appreciate your participation, and sending in your work quickly will make our next publication much better.

The last day to send in your work is May 29, 2026. If you confirm right away, you can get more time.

We respectfully ask that you confirm by responding with one of the following choices so that we can effectively resolve the matter:

 

Yes - I'm interested. Kindly move on to the following steps.


             No - I won't be taking part right now.


We will accept articles like Original Research, Reviews, Case Reports/Case Studies, Opinions and Perspectives, Images/Short Communications, and other things like these.

A short cover letter should be included with your submission.

To finish the editorial schedule and avoid more follow-ups, we need your confirmation within the next 24 hours. We'll think you're not interested in this issue if you don't respond right away.

Your work will not only make the journal better, but it will also show how important you are to the scientific community. We really hope to include your important work.

Thank you for paying attention right away. We are waiting for you to confirm.

Best of luck,
[redacted]
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Fresh preprint! Using Dutch administrative data, I show that businesses who respond to business surveys are typically unrepresentative, and that this unrepresentativeness is driven by which businesses are contacted for those surveys. 1/ doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Paper title and abstract.
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
Peder M Isager @isager.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
My article "Three-Sided Testing to Establish Practical Significance" with @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social is now published in AMPPS! journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Three-sided testing is an improved version of TOST that lets you test for equivalence, superiority and inferiority simultaneously.
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Happy to see my paper with @isager.bsky.social on three-sided testing published at Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science! If you're interested in practical significance testing, give it a read! doi.org/10.1177/2515...
doi.org
Three-Sided Testing to Establish Practical Significance: A Tutorial - Peder Mortvedt Isager, Jack Fitzgerald, 2026
Researchers may want to know whether an observed statistical relationship is either meaningfully negative, meaningfully positive, or small enough to be consider...
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Given my stance on log-like specifications, I was surprised to learn that there's a 'news' article on my paper in Nature Human Behaviour, claiming that it actually advocates for the use of IHS specifications. This is categorically untrue. 1/ t.co/ZGjAmHZhLv
t.co
https://scienmag.com/imputations-and-inverse-hyperbolic-sines-unveiling-data-mysteries/
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
New preprint! We reanalyze 46 papers that use log-like specifications (ln(Z+1), inverse hyperbolic sine etc). We find widespread non-robustness, and we show through theory + simulation how these models drive spurious significance. 1/ doi.org/10.31222/osf...
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
We're thrilled to open registration for the Utrecht Replication Games. The event will be at the at the University of Utrecht on June 4th. Psych, public health, pol sci and econ studies will be reproduced! Register here: www.surveymonkey.ca/r/Replicatio...
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
When your spam targets won't submit so you *demand submission* Wishing y'all luck today
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
Had a wonderful time organizing the scientific side of the CBS Replication Games! Thank you to the replicators for your hard work!
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
My Matters Arising concerning a paper on the legal determinants of terrorism is now out in @nathumbehav.nature.com. The original paper is now retracted. To learn why, read on for a story of irregularities, imputations, and impossible values. 1/x doi.org/10.1038/s41562-025-02347-7
doi.org
Client Challenge
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
Pleased to announce that my paper on hypothetical bias in experiments is now published in Experimental Economics! If you're interested in (how we figure out) whether real stakes and incentives matter in experiments, give it a read! 🔗: doi.org/10.1017/eec....
doi.org
Identifying the impact of hypothetical stakes on experimental outcomes and treatment effects | Experimental Economics | Cambridge Core
Identifying the impact of hypothetical stakes on experimental outcomes and treatment effects
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
Had a great time presenting my job market paper at the Lindau Nobel Meeting in Economic Sciences! 🔗 : osf.io/d7sqr_v1/ #LINOecon #EconSky
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
Registration closes July 4! Come join us in-person or online in Amsterdam!
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
Dutch academics, please share - replication games are coming to Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam on July 19! If you live in the Netherlands, or want a good reason to visit, come take a day to network, hone your skills, and potentially coauthor a paper. Registration: www.surveymonkey.ca/r/Replicatio...
surveymonkey.ca
Replication Games at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Take this survey powered by surveymonkey.com. Create your own surveys for free.
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
#GDRI_rep Update 7: Retraction! Our comment of "Parent–teacher meetings and student outcomes: Evidence from a developing country" has led to the paper being retracted. Our comment is accepted as is. Short 🧵
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
This will likely be a good initiative, conditional on it not substituting for the journal publishing full comments. Publication is an important incentive for reproducibility/robustness analyses and substantive empirical critiques almost always take more than one page.
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
#GDRI_rep Update 5: We have a new report. We reproduced the paper entitled "Partisan Effects of Information Campaigns in Competitive Authoritarian Elections: Evidence from Bangladesh" by Ahmed, Hodler and Islam published at the Economic Journal. See below for links to report and authors' responses.
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
What academic journal should I start? Wrong answers only
Email inviting me, a PhD candidate, to be the editor-in-chief of a brand new journal of my choosing.
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
#GDRI_rep Update 4: We have a new report. We reproduced the paper entitled "Parent–teacher meetings and student outcomes" by Islam @ European Economic Review. See below for links to report and author's response.
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Thank you @carlislerainey.bsky.social for boosting my job market paper! I’’m a fan of your prior work on this topic. If you want to learn more, check out the paper and my BIBAP seminar on it tomorrow, 3/12 7 AM CET/5 PM Sydney time. www.unsw.edu.au/business/beh...
unsw.edu.au
Jack Fitzgerald | The Need for Equivalence Testing in Economics
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
#5 Here's another recent critique of close elections RDDs. It's unclear whether there is actually good evidence against potentially fatal precise manipulation around the cutoff in these designs.
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
I'll be waking up early (7 AM CET) on Tuesday, March 12 to present my job market paper at 5 PM Sydney time! If you're awake too, stop by to hear me talk about equivalence testing, replication-based methods research, and the robustness of null results in economics!
Paper title: The Need for Equivalence Testing in Economics. Written by Jack Fitzgerald, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute. Date: February 5, 2025. Abstract: Equivalence testing can provide statistically significant evidence that economic relationships are practically negligible. I demonstrate its necessity in a large-scale reanalysis of estimates defending 135 null claims made in 81 recent articles from top economics journals. 36-63% of estimates defending the average null claim fail lenient equivalence tests. In a prediction platform survey, researchers accurately predict that equivalence testing failure rates will significantly exceed levels which they deem acceptable. Obtaining equivalence testing failure rates that these researchers deem acceptable requires arguing that nearly 75% of published estimates in economics are practically equal to zero. These results imply that Type II error rates are unacceptably high throughout economics, and that many null findings in economics reflect low power rather than truly negligible relationships. I provide economists with guidelines and commands in Stata and R for conducting credible equivalence testing and practical significance testing in future research.
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Relatedly, I also develop new equivalence testing methods for testing running variable (RV) manipulation in RDD. In 36 RDD publications, I find >44% of RV density discontinuities at treatment cutoffs can't be significantly bounded beneath 50% upward jumps. 🧵: bsky.app/profile/jack...
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
#GDRI_rep Update 2: I4R sent a report to the original authors for the PLOS One article "“Food insecurity and mental health of women during COVID-19: Evidence from a developing country". All authors have now emailed PLOS One to withdraw their names. osf.io/7tzek/
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
#GDRI_rep Update 1: I4R are now reproducing all published papers that use data from GDRI, or are closely related in other ways. Here is a first update on our work. 🧵
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Our proposal for post-publication review: “our system would add only 1 percent to the total reviewing effort, while providing important perspectives on papers representing more than one-quarter of the citations received by these influential journals.” statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/26/pp/
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
NEP-SOG: Sociology of Economics @repec-nep-sog.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
The Need for Equivalence Testing in Economics
d.repec.org
NEP/RePEc link
to paper
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
As a coauthor on the AEJ:AE report, it’s a lot. Oh my god, It’s a lot. In that paper, outcomes are inconsistently handled both in the code and in the field, the paper’s data is connected to a bunch of other experiments, and we find irregularities in the raw survey files.
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
I had a wonderful time presenting my job market paper at RWI Essen! Thank you @jrgptrs.bsky.social and Julian Rose for hosting and organizing!
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
New working paper! @i4replication.bsky.social does a good job detailing the experiment’s results, so for anyone who considers LLMs/AI as a (soon-to-be) solution to reproducibility in social science, let me walk you through the 🔥hell🔥 of trying to reproduce a paper on an "AI-led" team. 1/7
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
New paper for holiday reading! @isager.bsky.social and I provide an introduction to three-sided testing, a framework for testing estimates' practical significance. We offer a tutorial, Shiny app, + commands/code in #Rstats, #Jamovi, + #Stata. 1/9 osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/8y925 #EconSky #PsychSky
In the inferiority region, a 95% confidence interval is used to assess whether the estimate is significantly bounded beneath the lower delta bound. In the inferiority region, a 90% confidence interval is used to assess whether the estimate is significantly bounded within the delta bounds, even if the 95% confidence interval crosses one of the delta bounds. In the superiority region, a 95% confidence interval is used to assess whether the estimate is significantly bounded above the upper delta bound. The bottom four estimates have confidence intervals crossing the delta bounds, implying that results are inconclusive.
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
Peder M Isager @isager.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
New preprint: “Three-Sided Testing to Establish Practical Significance: A Tutorial” (osf.io/preprints/ps...) with @FitzgeraldJack_, proposing an upgraded version of the TOST equivalence test 🧵
osf.io
OSF
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
A huge thanks to @sweiwang.bsky.social for highlighting my job market paper, The Need for Equivalence Testing in Economics!
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
In more recent news, I thoroughly enjoyed presenting The Need for Equivalence Testing in Economics at the Netherlands Reproducibility Network Symposium and Platform for Young Meta-Scientists Symposium, with great discussion from Tsz Keung Wong!
Presenting talk.
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Two weeks ago, I had a wonderful time presenting The Need for Equivalence Testing in Economics at the Leibniz Open Science Day! (pic: @prashantgarg.bsky.social)
Presenting talk.
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
Moving from Florida to the Netherlands is a trip because for three months of the year, you can look to the sky and think ‘wow, what a beautiful sunset’ before realizing it’s 2:30 in the afternoon
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
Suppose I say “I regressed V1 on V2.” Which one do you assume is the dependent variable? 1: V1 2: V2 #EconSky #rstats #statistics
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
Super important resource for the field, give them a follow! #EconSky
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
I had an excellent time presenting this paper to the Behavioural Insights for Business and Policy Network at the University of New South Wales. A huge thanks to @impartialspectator.bsky.social for hosting!
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Do real stakes/incentives matter in experiments? Recent studies say they don’t. My new paper shows that these studies’ results — and those of most hypothetical bias experiments — are uninformative when we care about treatment effects. 1/19 #EconSky #PsychSky #PoliSky 🔗: papers.tinbergen.nl/24070.pdf
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Reposted by Jack Fitzgerald
Shahan Ali Memon @shahanmemon.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
Here is the starter pack for folks in science of science, meta science, STS, philosophy of science, history of science, economics of science, science policy, AI+science, and so on. Feel free to nominate and self-nominate! #SciSci #STS #MetaScience #SciPol #AI4Science #ScAISci go.bsky.app/2R1E4TD
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Jack Fitzgerald @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
A research highlight for #EconSky! I design equivalence tests for running variable (RV) manipulation in regression discontinuity (RDD), show that RV manipulation can't be ruled out in lots of published RDD research, and offer the lddtest command in Stata/R. 1/x 🔗: hdl.handle.net/10419/300277
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