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A protected minimum floor in Universal Credit to cut deep child poverty

Read more about a Protected Minimum Floor in Universal Credit: jrf.org.uk/social-secur... DWP benefit cap stats for Great Britain are here: gov.uk/government/s... Separate DfC benefit cap stats for Northern Ireland are here: communities-ni.gov.uk/publications... 4/4

jrf.org.uk

A new safety net in Universal Credit would limit hardship from debt deductions and the benefit cap, lifting 100,000 children out of very deep poverty.

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A Protected Minimum Floor in UC would be a quick/pragmatic fix, providing breathing space to children facing the deepest poverty. This would build on Fair Repayment Rate which limits debt deductions to 15% of basic UC, extending it to benefit cap deductions too. 3/4

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The benefit cap means £80 a week on average deducted from already inadequate Universal Credit payments, leaving families unable to afford essentials like food/energy. These deductions hamper +ive impact of removing 2-child limit, as families are hit by benefit cap instead. 2/4

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Lucy Bannister @lucybannister.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

The first benefit cap stats have been published since the 2-child limit was scrapped. 165,000 families - containing over 370,000 children - are now hit by the benefit cap. That’s 50,000 more families than before. 1/4

Chart from the DWP showing the number of benefit capped households in Great Britain over time. It shows that 164,000 families receiving Universal Credit were affected by the benefit cap in May 2026, up from 115,000 families in February 2026. (These figures are slightly different from those quoted in this post because we have added the separate benefit cap statistics for Northern Ireland into the DWP’s statistics for Great Britain.)

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Reposted by Iain Porter

Timely piece from @chriswebbmp.bsky.social. A safety net that ensures people can afford the essentials is critical to support people back into work, stop a setback becoming a crisis and reduce the need for food banks. But Universal Credit rates aren't based on any rationale of how much things cost.

labourlist.org

'We won’t cut the welfare bill by making people poorer – we need to tackle the causes of poverty' - LabourList

Conversations about bringing down the social security bill are starting in the wrong place – arguing about what…

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Reposted by Iain Porter

Lucy Bannister @lucybannister.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Universal Credit does not cover the cost of essentials. That means PIP has become part of the UK's anti-poverty infrastructure. What does that mean for security reforms and how do we build a sustainable system that better protects disabled people from hardship? 👇 www.trussell.org.uk/news-and-res...

trussell.org.uk

PIP is paying for Universal Credit's failures | Trussell

Our Senior Policy Manager, Lucy Bannister, explains that – to make PIP fair and sustainable – Timms needs to address the fact that Universal Credit is failing to cover the essentials.

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Reposted by Iain Porter

Katie Schmuecker @katieschmuecker.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Burnham wants a 'fair and sustainable' approach to welfare. That means targeting the underlying causes of people's need to claim benefits - which is far more popular with the public (59%) than cutting eligibility (20%) or benefit rates (8%). 1/3

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The dominant political narrative of a spiralling welfare bill creates pressure for urgent cuts. But this is inaccurate: while spending on non-pensioner benefits has risen since pre-pandemic, it is ~5% of our economy and projected by OBR to remain flat over the next 5 years. 9/10

Chart showing non-pensioner social security spending as % of GDP between 1995 and 2030

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The instinct that simple cuts to support are crude and often counterproductive is also correct. Evidence from recent benefit cuts show they had little or no employment impacts, but worsened hardship & health, damaging future employment prospects and shifting costs elsewhere. 8/10

Meanwhile, in the private rented sector, action can and should be taken to address unaffordable rent rises. 7/10

Introducing moderate rent controls would reduce spending on UC’s housing element by around £800 million a year.

Source: JRF modelling

A lack of social housing twinned with an expensive private rented sector means there is greater need for support with housing costs than if people could access more affordable housing. 6/10

Building 100,000 new social homes could directly reduce spending on UC’s housing element by around £300 million a year.

Source: JRF calculation based on research by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) for Shelter and the National Housing Federation (NHF)

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Inflexible jobs and inadequate occupational health mean too many people are forced to leave work if they become ill, and disabled people have fewer suitable opportunities for work. 5/10

Every 100,000 people receiving health-related UC who move into work reduces UC spend by around £1.3 billion.

Source: JRF calculation based on Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) average savings

Weak local economies mean not enough decent jobs in many areas. People not receiving support to fulfil their potential means fewer people can access good jobs. These economic & policy failures mean employment is suppressed, resulting in higher need for Universal Credit (UC). 4/10

Every 100,000 extra people in work reduces UC spend by around £700 million a year. If the Government hit its 80% employment rate target, annual UC spend would be around £10 billion lower.

Source: JRF modelling

The new PM and public are right that our safety net is carrying too much of the cost of economic failures elsewhere. Addressing these at root would significantly reduce pressure on social security and improve economic security. A few examples: 3/10

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When we and @moreincommonuk.bsky.social asked the public what approach to reducing welfare spend Govt should take, over twice as many people preferred it to tackle underlying causes of people's need to claim benefits (59%) rather than by cutting eligibility (20%) or benefit rates (8%). 2/10

Chart of polling from More in Common and JRF showing that when the public was asked what approach to reducing welfare spend Govt should take, over twice as many people preferred it to tackle underlying causes of people's need to claim benefits (59%) rather than by cutting eligibility (20%) or benefit rates (8%).

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Rachel Casey @rachelcasey.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Andy Burnham described “the fair and sustainable way to bring the welfare bill down" in his 1st speech as prime minister today. New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows why tackling underlying problems with jobs, health & housing, not “crude cuts”, would be a popular & lasting approach. 1/10

Quote from Andy Burnham's first speech as prime minister: "We will help more young people into work by changing the education system and giving them more support, more mental health support. And we will build more council homes. That is the fair and sustainable way to bring the welfare bill down, to meet our fiscal rules, and to honour our commitments on defence to our international partners."

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Reposted by Iain Porter

🧵 1/ The Milburn Review is right to sound the alarm 🚨 Rising numbers of young people out of work or education should concern all of us. This reflects deep, structural challenges - not a short-term blip.

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Reposted by Iain Porter

Katie Schmuecker @katieschmuecker.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

📣 New from @jrf-uk.bsky.social Blunt cuts to social security don’t work- we need to tackle root causes of need. Hitting govt 80% employment target would reduce Universal Credit spend by £10bn Polling shows 59% public want causes to be tackled. Just 20% want restricted eligibility & 8% cut rates.

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Reposted by Iain Porter

Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Social security is carrying too much of the cost of economic failure elsewhere A policy reset is clearly needed In a new @jrf-uk.bsky.social paper, we argue that addressing the drivers of economic insecurity can sustainably ease pressure on the income safety net and improve living standards

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

The @healthfoundation.bsky.social have now looked at how this compares with 20 other high-income countries: health.org.uk/reports-and-.... Picture is grim. The UK saw the second biggest fall in healthy life expectancy over the decade to 2021, beaten only by the US.

A horizontal bar chart showing the change in healthy life expectancy of 21 high-income countries over the decade to 2021. Norway and Japan saw the biggest improvements of an extra year of healthy life, while the United States saw the biggest fall of over 2 years of healthy life. The UK saw a fall of 8 months.

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Reposted by Iain Porter

Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

🗣️ 'Benefits have never been set according to any logical calculation, like the cost of food and bills.' For @theleaduk.bsky.social, Senior Policy Adviser @iainkporter.bsky.social makes the urgent case for an independent process to set Universal Credit levels 👇 bit.ly/3MkEaZp

national.thelead.uk

This is how we fix Universal Credit

The basic rate of benefit support falls woefully short – Iain Porter, senior policy advisor at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, explains what needs to happen now.

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Iain Porter @iainkporter.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

For more on this - and why we need an independent, evidence-based advisory process to recommend minimum Universal Credit rates that reflect essential costs - see recent thread and report: bsky.app/profile/iain...

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Iain Porter @iainkporter.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

As Parliament debates annual benefits 'uprating' today, great to see MPs calling out how arbitrary the process is. Support isn't linked to any calculation of essential costs, meaning 5 in 6 low-income families on Universal Credit going without essentials: labourlist.org/2026/02/valu...

labourlist.org

'Putting our values into action: Labour should make social security work for everyone who needs it' - LabourList

Catherine West MP argues we need an independent, evidence-led body to asses Universal Credit to ensure it works for everyone who needs it.

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Yes I think the MIG phrase was originally how Gordon Brown sold Pension Credit? I hadn't made the potential link to naming of the social care charging rule too. MIG is an oft-used name actually - other example being Scottish Govt's commitment to developing a very big and broad 'MIG'.

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2. The MIG level for social care charging is, in any case, an arbitrary amount - it's just a figure picked by Govt that historically has been the level of JSA/Income Support benefit (which is itself arbitrary) plus 25%. In contrast, the EG level is set according to the actual cost of essentials.

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1. It's about a different thing. EG is about how much Universal Credit anyone should get - so the basic rate of UC after various deductions made at source by DWP (for debt repayments and the benefit cap). That payment should never be allowed to be less than the EG level.

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Katie Schmuecker @katieschmuecker.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Thanks, understood. Minimum Income Guarantee (MIG) you refer to is, as you say, a threshold specifically within the current council social care charging rules - so care charges cannot reduce someone's income below the MIG level. Our Essentials Guarantee (EG) proposal is different for 2 main reasons:

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Reposted by Iain Porter

🌞Today is a turning point, as legislation to remove the two child limit starts to make its way through parliament. The policy was a terrible idea. It drove poverty up and future prospects down. @jrf-uk.bsky.social has joined 65 orgs to urge all MPs to stand with children & support the Bill.

Statement reading:
This is a historic day for children and families across the UK as legislation to remove the two-child limit from our social security system starts to make its way through Parliament.

The two-child limit was an awful experiment that hurt children. More than any other policy, the two-child limit is responsible for driving child poverty to its current record high.

Poverty has a devastating impact on young lives. Children going without things they need to learn and grow, living in damp homes, struggling at school, facing isolation and stress.

Today marks the moment when we start to turn things around for the next generation. We commend the government for making the choice to scrap the two-child limit and ask all MPs to stand with children and support this Bill.

Every child deserves the best start in life, with a decent childhood that lays the foundations for a strong future. Ending the two-child limit sets our country on the right path to meet that ambition.

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Hi Alison. If you could share a bit more detail about what Minimum Income Guarantee you're referring to I can see if I can help.

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Good question. The travel is based on the cost of a certain number of bus journeys per person that we found strong public support for. The clothes/shoes is based on actual spending by low-income households in ONS data.

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Proposed benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027

It was one of the Govt's 'u-turns'. HE for existing claimants (i.e. LCWRA) will go up a little bit, so not frozen but still less than inflation. When combined with the above-inflation SA, the total rise will equal inflation. Same for SCC. The new rates can be found here: www.gov.uk/government/p...

gov.uk

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Thanks. Govt did plan to freeze HE of UC for existing claimants, but then (partly) changed its mind - so if you're already on HE then your combined standard allowance and HE will (when added together) go up by inflation (3.8%) in April.

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Independent process to ensure Universal Credit covers essential costs

Instead of just uprating last year’s arbitrary amount each year, we need an independent, evidence-based advisory process to recommend minimum rates that reflect essential costs. Our new report shows UK & international examples of how this could work: 3/4 www.jrf.org.uk/social-secur...

jrf.org.uk

No logical calculation of essential costs underpins benefit rates, leaving families going without. An independent, evidence-led advisory process would fix this.

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In April, Universal Credit's basic rate rises to £98 a week for a single adult, far short of what’s needed to afford essentials like food and bills. This forces people to skip meals & turn off heating to get by, with 5 in 6 low-income families on UC going without essentials. 2/4

A chart showing the level of Universal Credit’s standard allowance (basic rate) in 2026/27 compared to the cost of essentials including food and basic household bills. For a single adult aged 25 or older, Universal Credit’s standard allowance is £98 a week, but the cost of essentials is around £120 a week, leaving a gap of £22 a week. For a couple where at least one member is aged 25 or older, the standard allowance is £154 a week, but the cost of essentials is around £205 a week, leaving a gap of £51 a week. The gaps are even larger for young people under the age of 25: a shortfall of £42 a week for a single young person and a shortfall of £83 a week for a young couple.

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