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John 🌝

@heres.bsky.social
428 followers 803 following 963 posts

Data Analyst. Reconstruction Amendments Absolutist.

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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Countries have rejoined the ICC before
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Guess that the producers really wanted to minimize the risk of anyone saying anything remotely off script with the minimal award speech time
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigni...
en.wikipedia.org
Indignité nationale - Wikipedia
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Fordham does this and it requires the community to take a very long walk around its campus in the Bronx to get to where they're going.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Idk
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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
You can’t talk about debt without talking about how we got into a bad predicament, and there’s only one correct answer: tax cuts enacted this century
U.S. debt is on track to reach historic levels
Debt held by the public as a percentage of the gross domestic product, 1792-2055
- Historical - • Projected → Without Bush and Trump tax cuts
187.55%
180%
160
140
120|
100
80
99.38%
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• 47.85%
40
20
0
1800|
1820 1840 1860|
1880
1900 1920 1940|
1960|
1980 2000 2020 2040|
Hover or click to see values.
• Notes:
Source: Authors' calculations using data from the Congressional Budget Office, the Joint Committee on Taxation, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, the U.S. Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve, the Yale Budget Lab, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. A full list of sources is available here.
Chart: Center for American Progress
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Centrist schtick is basically "every Bad thing is Normal and Inevitable" Even if people engage to disagree and refute the inevitability, engaging concedes the initial premise that any disagreements are non-normative. I think it's a part of the outrage industrial complex.
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alec karakatsanis @equalityalec.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
THREAD. Contrary to what you are being told, 40 years of polling have established that shifting money away from police/prisons toward social services is one of the most popular public policies among *all* political demographics. But it's not just that, it goes way deeper.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
If people are getting push notifications from FB/Insta (or in-feed ads) to check out Threads, it makes sense they'd tap on Threads at least once a month, and maybe even accidentally "wow such MAU"
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Also "active user" is measured and defined pretty differently across sites DAU/MAU % is product stickiness Depends on: - how aggressively bots are removed - how aggressively users are verified Threads also can cross-advertise and send "check it out" notifications
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Ernest "Dead" Penfold @penfoldsfiv.eurosky.social · 12/08/2026
the media when the centrist loses by 1% vs the media when the leftist loses by (less than) 1%
bluesky post by Politico saying "Progressives didn't get the big election night they wanted" referring to Abdul el-Sayed defeating Haley Stevens in the MI Senate primary and linking to their story with that headline.bluesky post by Politico with the text "The far left hits a wall" referring to David Crowley defeating Francesca Hong in the WI Governor Primary and linking to their story with that headline
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
bluesky's engagement metrics are possibly more reliable than other social media sites as well
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Idk why cnn even gives this stuff a platform
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
It was baffling to see talking points amount to: "AI will take everything from you. Someone (but not AI companies) might help you afterwards." Maybe the industry, in its hubris, thought that people would see them as saviors and pledge fealty in droves.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
It's not too late to hold the perpetrators accountable in a court of law, however.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
"More broadly,"
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Prem Thakker ツ @premthakker.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
This is the key takeaway: Haley Stevens got everything she could have asked for. AIPAC spent the most it ever has. The party pulled out all the stops. Millions were even spent to spread the false idea that the most popular president in modern US history endorsed her. And it still wasn’t enough.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
I think that overall debt measures (both mean and median) can hide the extremes of the distribution. If most of the short term debt is concentrated in the lower income quintiles (renting, high credit card / payday loan debt) -- the scenario for those households is markedly worse, but less visible.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
It depends on debt structure, refinancing terms, and maturity. And policy. For a household with high revolving debt: Monthly interest payments jump 50%, essential spending jumps 20%, and income increases 40% over 4 years. Raises are uneven but interest compounds continuously nonetheless.
consumerfinance.gov
Credit card interest rate margins at all-time high | Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
The annual percentage rate (APR) margins, the amount of interest credit card issuers charge cardholders on top of benchmark rates, have reached an all-time high.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
This is an example of a totally misleading headline backed by "real wage growth." "Enjoy" is relative. 13->15 dollars/hr over four years during high inflation shouldn't be touted as policy success. Obviously worse QoL for large swaths of the populace despite selectively true econometrics.
ft.com
Low earners in the US enjoy fastest wage growth
Other charts of the week: climate change in Europe, Americans and taxes, the popularity of big cars and job losses at news organisations
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Definitionally it wouldn't, but it's used to make claims that QoL improved which are not supported by the data. That graph is showing the average increase across every household. Are payday loans and BNPL tracked there? What about DSR by quintile?
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Economics fans always showing "real income" because it has "real" in the name > doesn't include debt burden > treats inflation as affecting everyone the same it's actually not very "real" at all
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Low margin != low profit. Grocery stores can earn competitive returns on capital despite "thin" margins. The policy objective isn't to insulate incumbents from competition anyway. They can respond by improving operations or by changing their product mix.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
But, debt burden has outpaced corresponding (by quartile) real wage gains.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
NPS recommended 23 meters and not to approach "within any distance that disturbs or displaces the animal." Read together, one might think that the recommendation was a generally safe distance. www.nps.gov/yell/planyou...
The animals in Yellowstone are wild and dangerous, no matter how docile they may appear to be. The safest (and often best) view of wildlife is from inside a car. Always stay at least 100 yards (91 m) away from bears, wolves, and cougars, and at least 25 yards (23 m) away from all other animals, including bison and elk. If an animal moves closer to you, back away to maintain a safe distance. It's illegal to willfully remain near or approach wildlife, including birds, within any distance that disturbs or displaces the animal.

Binoculars and telephoto lenses always give you a better view than approaching the animal would. Lenses with focal lengths of 300mm or greater are recommended for adequate reach.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
His worst, So Far
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
As reactionaries, centrists never see themselves as extremists, it's always everyone else.
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regular meghan 나영지 🇵🇸 @ruemcclammyhand.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
this should be mandatory reading for the entire country
But what was known in 1964 was largely abandoned in 2024, and what was offered instead was a questionable survivalist theory of democracy-one that proposed to erect a shield over one group while providing weaponry to destroy another.
For reasons moral, pragmatic, and perhaps mostly ancestral, the next black presidency will have to think bigger. To its list of adversaries-which include a renewed white supremacy, a rapacious billionaire class, an energetic Christian nationalism-it must add another, perhaps more formidable than them all: empire.But for many Arab and Muslim Americans, "America before Trump" meant returning to a time when FBI informants sought to entrap them, when police agencies spied on their mosques, and calling a presidential candidate a Muslim was a slur. Seemingly blind to this trauma, the Harris campaign followed up the Democratic National Convention snub by deploying Bill Clinton to Michigan. There, in the state with the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the country, Clinton told an audience that Israel had been forced "to kill civilians" by Hamas, and that the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea belonged to the Jewish people because "they were there first." Meanwhile, Harris welcomed her endorsement by Dick Cheney, who was not a very popular vice president but was a zealous defender of torturing Muslims.
The cumulative message was not "We don't need your vote." It was "We don't value your lifeIn 1965, the year of the Voting Rights Act's passage, Coretta Scott King stood before an anti-war rally in Madison Square Garden and rejected survivalist democracy:

Have you often wondered as I have, why it is that the same president Johnson who speaks so eloquently for civil rights, and who has been so moved by the struggle for the right to vote and the anguish of the poor, can be so callous about the Vietnamese and so apparently
thoughtless on foreign policy. I think it is because we permit him to be.And that story forces a very basic question: What was the point of all this?
Why the invocations of Tubman, the readings of Du Bois, the visits from Hamer? And did the advocates of this collective pedagogy imagine their children rising to heights of power, only to view the darker nations of the world through the same violent lens as their oppressors? And if they did not, if they believed that the "poor and needy" meant those within the empire as well as those without, then what moral mandate does that place upon their children?
And if their children have come only to praise, not check, empire, then why have they come at all?
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Some companies have been requiring workers to use them now
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Wonder if there was any overlap with the group chats reported last year bsky.app/profile/melb...
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Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @mayor.nyc.gov · 12/06/2026
Reason #1,000,000,000,000 why we should tax the rich.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
"20% higher wages is 20% quality of life gain" vibecession messaging was such bs 1) QoL wasn't good at $10, isn't at $12/hr 2) debt payments easily outpaced real wage growth for the same bracket But payment processors and insurance companies are donors so we're told it's the best economy ever.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
The macro data didn't even support the argument. People that know where to find macroeconomic data would also know full well that "wages adjusted for inflation" doesn't account for things that people have been concerned about. It just seemed like an openly bad faith argument.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
The "vibecession" folks would show something like a "real income" chart, which doesn't even account for those real debt increases!
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
FTC could break up media monopolies
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
He worked for pltr from 2014-2019 -- his final position was "US Government Lead." Public contracts were not new news in 2019. He's kind of implied it's a useful tech if used properly with safeguards, but it already has safeguards and audit functionality. So idk.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
No, this would be more like regulating gambling because there is an addictive component.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
This is true -- though because of increased debt burden (high interest rate for credit cards) the quality of life got much worse It's like one person going from $10k to $12k a year and another going from $100k to $110k a year 20% vs 10%, but the person making $12k isn't having a great time
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grimm 🎃 @mugrimm.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Something Is Happening to America's Moral Code
A New York Times podcast hosted Hasan Piker and a New Yorker staff writer for a discussion of lawbreaking, which they both endorsed as resistance to tyranny.
By Graeme WoodAtlantic Magazine writer Graeme Wood: "It is possible to kill children legally, if for example one is being attacked by an enemy who hides behind them."
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
This is pretty cool stuff. Is there also data about who the editors were? Curious about who was making decisions about article titles at various moments in history.
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Editing the Blue-Gray Lady @nytdiff.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Change in Abstract
Before: President Trump had been under increasing pressure to find a way out after he threatened to wipe out Iran’s civilization on Tuesday night unless Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz.
After: President Trump’s short-term intimidation may have worked, but the fundamental divides with Iran are as sharp as they were in February.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
I'm skeptical. It just sounds like marketing for defense contractors.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
That is what I'm asking OP to do. What is the concrete idea being supported?
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Genuinely, what is the modern, democratic idea?
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Wim Vanhaecke @wimvanhaecke.eurosky.social · 19/03/2026
I still get Fetterman vibes from Platner.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Right, anyone can just see the news or the many credible sources that the Wiki page cites -- not sure why people pretend that this information doesn't exist
The genocide has been recognised by a United Nations special committee and commission of inquiry, the International Association of Genocide Scholars, multiple human rights groups, numerous genocide studies and international law scholars, and other experts.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Ok
patch.com
Evanston Fires Chief DEI Staffer For Supporting Palestinians: Lawsuit
"They're attacking, essentially, the racial equity movement," says Liam Bird, who is suing city officials for First Amendment retaliation.
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
"In recent days, another AIPAC-aligned group, Chicago Progressive Partnership, put out ads attacking Abughazaleh and propping up another progressive in the race, Bushra Amiwala, in an apparent effort to split the vote."
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John 🌝 @heres.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
"Local strategists noted the abrupt shift when the Biss attacks stopped earlier this month." www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
In Illinois, an AIPAC-aligned super PAC called Elect Chicago Women, had spent heavily against Biss on TV and digital ads, while also spending more than $4 million on TV ads and mailers boosting Fine. In recent days, another AIPAC-aligned group, Chicago Progressive Partnership, put out ads attacking Abughazaleh and propping up another progressive in the race, Bushra Amiwala, in an apparent effort to split the vote.
“There’s been a strategy shift,” said a person directly familiar with AIPAC’s thinking, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. “Our primary goal in Illinois is to prevent potential ‘Squad’ members from being elected to Congress.”
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