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Graeme Smith

@graemesmithauthor.bsky.social
498 followers 118 following 37 posts

Senior Analyst, International Crisis Group

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Reposted by Graeme Smith
mansfieldintinc.bsky.social @mansfieldintinc.bsky.social · 15/06/2025
1/4 Blog @lawfaremedia.org with @alcis.org funded by @XCEPT It focuses on the transformative effects of solar power: how it has supported Afghan farmers cope with climate change but ultimately how its expansion now threatens the livelihoods of 3.65 million people www.lawfaremedia.org/article/unde...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 13/06/2025
The strategic logic of this operation is lacking.
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Chris Kay @christopherkay.ft.com · 30/03/2025
“The Taliban are saying, ‘bring it on.’ They don’t want Pakistan to have leverage over them,” says @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social But the returnees were “walking into a real humanitarian disaster and an economy that cannot grow fast enough” on.ft.com/3FJBEZ7
on.ft.com
Pakistan threatens to deport Afghan refugees after Donald Trump’s funding cuts
Suspension of foreign aid and resettlement programmes endanger 870,000 people, analysts warn
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
Economic cooperation between Afghanistan and its neighbors holds promise, but tensions along the disputed border with Pakistan could impede growth -- as I told PRI's @theworld.org theworld.org/segments/202...
theworld.org
Afghanistan-Pakistan border witnesses escalation in violence - The World from PRX
The border between neighbors Afghanistan and Pakistan is seeing a rising amount of violence the past few months. Bombings, cross-border shooting and killings have become common as Pakistan’s governmen...
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Reposted by Graeme Smith
Elizabeth Dickinson @dickinsonbeth.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Hard to overstate the impact of USAID freeze in #Colombia. Last year, US provided 70.6% of incoming humanitarian funds. A 90 day freeze amid acute humanitarian crisis means Colombia has <1/3 of resources it would have last year to respond. Beyond 90 days would be devastating.
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Lots of questions right now about the impact of Trump's aid cuts on Afghanistan. Short answer: we don't know. But it's worth noting that the US and other donors were already cutting back. Emergency funds offset the halt to development aid after 2021, but only temporarily.
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
I discussed my book on Syrian (former) jihadis, including HTS, including why they took over the leadership of the opposition, transformed politically, and their current role in Syria. Free to listen, and free to download as a book too fdslive.oup.com/www.oup.com/...
fdslive.oup.com
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Good free-to-read @foreignaffairs.com piece piece on how the USA and Europe appear set to wreck Syria’s transition by simply defaulting to economic warfare for lack of clear ideas. @delaneysimon.bsky.social @jeromed.bsky.social @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social www.foreignaffairs.com/afghanistan/...
foreignaffairs.com
Don’t Repeat in Syria the Mistakes of Afghanistan
Isolating Damascus's new rulers won't moderate them.
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Delaney Simon @delaneysimon.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
In @foreignaffairs.com, @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social, @jeromed.bsky.social and I urge Western policymakers to make better choices in #Syria than they did in #Afghanistan, or risk sabotaging Syria's transition 🧵1/ www.foreignaffairs.com/afghanistan/...
foreignaffairs.com
Don’t Repeat in Syria the Mistakes of Afghanistan
Isolating Damascus's new rulers won't moderate them.
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Delaney Simon @delaneysimon.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
"When Syria rebuilds, it's going to have to move beyond the illicit economy. It will have to reinvigorate industry and the banking sector. This will be really difficult with sanctions in place." My interview with @mattgalloway.bsky.social on @cbcradiocanada.bsky.social cbc.ca/listen/live-...
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Reposted by Graeme Smith
Anjali Dayal @anjalikdayal.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
the person to read about these humanitarian carve-outs is @mayaungar.bsky.social : www.crisisgroup.org/global/polit...
crisisgroup.org
Political Divides Drive a Reassessment of UN Sanctions | Crisis Group
UN sanctions are under increasing scrutiny as a result of heightened tensions among Security Council member states. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Maya Ungar explains why some governments are pushing to scale back these punitive measures as others fight to preserve their core elements.
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Delaney Simon @delaneysimon.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
This morning I talked to BBC's Lyse Doucet about the steps Western governments can take right now to help Syria get on its feet. Failing to take action on #sanctions relief is like pulling the rug out from under Syria just as it's trying to stand.
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2cj...
youtube.com
Charlie Wilson's War - Zen master and the little boy
YouTube video by dorune
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
We need better tools for dealing with such situations. The current all-or-nothing approach serves no one well, especially the civilians who suffer in the grey zones. Here’s hoping that Syrians do not get stuck in the same limbo that afflicts Afghans. /end
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Sadly, the so-called international system is not built for this. Sanctions are crude instruments. States tend to fall into “with us” or “against us” categories, with few options in between. 32/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
I’ve been sending copies of the UN independent assessment of Afghanistan to colleagues who work on Syria, because it reads like a checklist of the many ways the new regime in Damascus might struggle to restore functional relations with the world 31/ unama.unmissions.org/sites/defaul...
unama.unmissions.org
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Sixth, more broadly, there’s a bunch of connectivity issues: civil aviation, telecommunications, customs integration, border security, etc. The Taliban case shows how hard it is for rebel groups to plug into global systems. 30/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Fifth, Syria needs to rebuild -- but World Bank and IMF programs can be difficult in these settings. Afghanistan got a “yes” vote from the Bank board for an electricity project earlier this year, but most infrastructure funding has been halted since 2021. www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres... 29/
worldbank.org
World Bank Group Announces Next Phase of Support for People of Afghanistan
WASHINGTON, Feb. 15, 2024—The World Bank Board of Executive Directors today endorsed an adjusted approach to support the people of Afghanistan. “Approach 3.0” will deploy funds from the International ...
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Fourth, Syria's sticky web of pre-existing sanctions will likely continue to affect the banking and financial sectors. In Afghanistan, businesses still have trouble with wire transfers for basic transactions such as importing food and medicines. 28/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Third, we don't know how Syria's UN representation will play out. The Taliban still haven't taken Afghanistan's seat at the General Assembly, and UN-led normalization talks have been plagued by contentious politics (mostly over the Taliban’s awful treatment of women). 27/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Second, the central bank of Syria may have trouble meeting AML/CFT requirements if the decider of new appointments at the institution is a listed terrorist with a $10m bounty on his head. Syria was already under scrutiny by the FATF. 26/ www.fatf-gafi.org/en/countries...
fatf-gafi.org
Syria
Information concerning Syria's efforts to tackle money laundering, terrorism financing and the financing of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
First, it's unclear whether central bank assets belonging to Syria might become an issue like Afghanistan's frozen reserves. The Taliban lost access to $9.5B in overseas accounts, crippling monetary policy. 25/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
In the meantime, it’s possible that the interim government in Syria will face some of the other issues that troubled the Taliban in recent years. These are speculative, but worth mentioning. 24/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Complete removal of the UN sanctions on HTS or the Taliban would require a broader political understanding with the permanent members of the Security Council. Unilateral sanctions will need separate negotiations. 23/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Instead, there is a UNSC committee that supposedly reviews the sanctions. In practice, it takes few actions. Committee staff sometimes feel puzzled about why they are tasked with prolonging sanctions that no longer fit reality. 22/ main.un.org/securitycoun...
main.un.org
Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 1988 (2011) | Security Council
On 19 July 2024, the Security Council adopted resolution
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
This highlights the political side of the problem. There is no world court of sanctions, where experts weigh the merits of a) coercing the Taliban, hoping to change their rules that crush the rights of women, or b) lifting sanctions to ease poverty. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-... 21/
lawfaremedia.org
Why International Leverage Has Failed With the Taliban
The United States and its partners have tried using aid conditionality to try to modify the Taliban's policies. It won't work.
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
The Council asked for implementation of the Special Coordinator’s recommendations, but nobody took the initiative to review the Taliban sanctions. The economic pressure continues. Ironically, the worst effects fall upon Afghan girls and women. 20/ www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-a...
crisisgroup.org
Taliban Restrictions on Women’s Rights Deepen Afghanistan’s Crisis | Crisis Group
The Taliban have barred women from universities and many workplaces, compelling several aid organisations to pause operations in Afghanistan and donors to contemplate cuts to assistance. Yet the principled response remains to mitigate the harm these harsh rulings are doing to the most vulnerable Afghans.
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
In 2023, the UN Special Coordinator reviewed all international engagement with Afghanistan and concluded, among other things, that sanctions against the Taliban should be reformed to “make the sanctions regime more relevant to current realities”. 19/ unama.unmissions.org/sites/defaul...
unama.unmissions.org
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
But even the relatively straightforward sanctions on the Taliban have proven tricky. The U.S. promised to work toward lifting sanctions on the Taliban as part of a deal with the insurgents in 2020, but implementation fell apart as the Afghan government collapsed. 18/ www.state.gov/wp-content/u...
state.gov
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Among the many sanctions on Syria is a U.S. State Sponsor of Terrorism designation, one of the most powerful weapons in the US economic arsenal. Some of the Syria sanctions date back to the 1970s. The Taliban sanctions look simple by comparison, a legacy of the 1990s. 17/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
The picture in Syria is also profoundly more complicated than in Afghanistan. It’s not just a sanctioned rebel group taking control of the country. Syria itself has been under the world’s most restrictive sanctions for years. 16/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Such effects of sanctions could be worse in Syria than in Afghanistan because the U.S. calls HTS a “foreign terrorist organisation”, which is a tougher label than the U.S. listing of the Taliban as “specially designated global terrorists”. 15/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Nope. Firms were still reluctant to do business in Afghanistan. High compliance costs, reputational risks, and lingering legal questions outweighed the potential upside. Plus, some countries did not ease sanctions at all. 14/ www.foreignaffairs.com/afghanistan/...
foreignaffairs.com
Let Afghanistan Rebuild
Like it or not, donors must work with the Taliban on economic recovery.
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Soon afterwards, in February 2022, the Biden administration went further and published the most sweeping set of exemptions ever written for U.S. sanctions, permitting a wide range of business with Afghanistan. Problem solved? 13/ ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
ofac.treasury.gov
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
As I testified to U.S. Congress, the chilling effects of sanctions continued choking the whole economy of Afghanistan. It wasn’t enough to simply make it legally permissible to deliver emergency rations. 12/ www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-a...
crisisgroup.org
Afghanistan: The Humanitarian Crisis and U.S. Response | Crisis Group
In a 9 February 2022 hearing before the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Crisis Group’s Senior Afghanistan Consultant Graeme Smith outlined two long-term ways the U.S. can mitigate Afghanistan’s humanitarian and economic crises in the aftermath of war and subsequent Taliban takeover.
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
But those humanitarian exemptions have limited impact, as we saw in Afghanistan. Aid groups protested, and got a carveout from UN sanctions after the Taliban takeover in December 2021. But that didn’t solve the problem. 11/ blogs.icrc.org/law-and-poli...
blogs.icrc.org
Carve-out in Kabul: hard won resolution lifts humanitarian roadblock in Afghanistan - Humanitarian Law & Policy Blog
On 22 December 2021, the United Nations Security Council voted unanimously to adopt a resolution on Afghanistan introducing, for only the second time in 30 UN sanction regimes, an explicit humanitaria...
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
To their credit, the Council members did what we asked: they voted in favour of the indefinite humanitarian carveout last week. The U.S. ambassador was right to call it a “landmark” moment at the UNSC. 10/ usun.usmission.gov/explanation-...
usun.usmission.gov
Explanation of Vote Following the Adoption of a UN Security Council Resolution on Humanitarian Carveout Extension
We also recognize that humanitarians, donors, banks, and suppliers serving these people – the ones putting their lives on the line to deliver food, aid, and medicine – deserve the highest degree of le...
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
That is why our team @CrisisGroup called for an exemption to UN sanctions for all humanitarian aid and pushed the Security Council to make it permanent. Politics should not block assistance for needy people. 9/ www.crisisgroup.org/global/sb12-...
crisisgroup.org
Ten Challenges for the UN in 2024-2025 | Crisis Group
The war in Gaza has highlighted how debilitating major-power division can be for the UN. Yet the organisation is not hamstrung: in several crises around the world, diplomats can agree on modest initiatives to curb violence and shore up stability.
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
The headaches of delivering aid to Syria could get worse. The HTS-controlled state will ask NGOs to pay taxes, customs, and other fees – which will ring alarm bells in the legal department of many charities. They won’t want to risk providing assistance to terrorists. 8/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
The fact that HTS is listed as a terrorist group by the UN, EU, U.S., UK, Russia, Türkiye and other states has already been a barrier to getting basic supplies into northern Syria. 7/ www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
crisisgroup.org
A Vital Humanitarian Mandate for Syria’s North West | Crisis Group
The UN Security Council is considering renewing an understanding whereby UN agencies transport aid to Idlib, an area held by Syrian rebels. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Richard Gowan, Dareen Khalifa and Ashish Pradhan explain why the arrangement remains essential.
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
The pariah status of the men with guns who control territory often gets in the way of aid agencies trying to deliver help. Our friends @ChathamHouse and @nyuCIC estimated that this affects almost half of all people in fragile and conflict-affected states. 6/ www.chathamhouse.org/2023/04/aid-...
chathamhouse.org
Aid strategies in ‘politically estranged’ settings
How donors can stay and deliver in fragile and conflict-affected states
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
On paper, the first systematic response to crises in places like Syria and Afghanistan should be delivery of humanitarian aid. This is a problem in many countries: @DelaneySimon calculates that more than 100 million people need life-saving aid where ‘terrorists’ operate. 5/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
We weren’t the only people documenting the Taliban’s struggles to repair their relationship with international actors. The HTS leader reportedly “followed events in Afghanistan closely”, seeking to avoid that mess. 4/ newlinesmag.com/reportage/th...
newlinesmag.com
The Backstory Behind the Fall of Aleppo
New Lines reports exclusively on the details leading up to the city's stunning capture
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
In fact, a lot of the time the international ‘system’ does not work. My colleagues and I spent the last three years studying the patchwork of rules, norms, and politics that shape the Taliban’s engagement with the outside world. It’s not much of a system. 3/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Of course, the rise of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Taliban’s return to power in 2021 are two very different situations. Still, some of the Taliban’s difficulties in recent years will also confront HTS because of how the international system works. 2/
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Graeme Smith @graemesmithauthor.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
A brutal regime falls. But there’s a problem: the UN and several countries say the victorious rebels are terrorists. What to do? There’s no playbook for Islamist insurgents faced with the challenges of running a country. But there is a precedent, in Afghanistan. 1/
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