Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 13mAlso, IMO how we might to all-out war, and where it would start, depends a lot on whether it’s the result of this kind of “destroy NATO” bid by RU vs RU brinksmanship that gets out of hand - like some naval confrontation over navigation or a hybrid op that spins out of control. 000
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 13mAgree, that’s most likely if RU invades and tries to achieve some strategic surprise (v unlikely) to undermine NATO. But IMO even if NATO didn’t try to expel them (quite sure they would, so risk of all-out war v high), result would be a tighter alliance, at least for front line MSs. 1/2 100
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 3hRe expanding target list, this is one area where RU can’t retaliate bc commercial flights within UKR are already suspended. Obv there are civilian target concerns for UKR, but IMO those are likely to relax as RU expands its list, causing even more civilian misery over the winter and beyond. 000
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5hSeems pretty clear he was acting out of greed, not ideological sympathy, but who was doing the paying? NB: “Hanning was an officer stationed… in communist East Berlin. After his role as president of the BND ended in 2005 he became the highest-ranking official in Germany’s security sector...” 020
Reposted by Edward WalkerKyiv Post @kyivpost.com · 8hPoland is deploying a Patriot battery near the Ukrainian border as Warsaw ramps up its military buildup, expands drone capabilities and upgrades aviation infrastructure. www.kyivpost.com/post/86222kyivpost.comPoland to Deploy Patriot Battery Near Ukraine Border as Russian Strikes Inch CloserWarsaw is also expanding the 18th Mechanized Division and planning new drone and helicopter facilities in the region bordering Ukraine. 1195
Reposted by Edward WalkerUlrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 8hOfficial statement by the federal prosecutor’s office speaks of 2000* shared documents. *Not that the number necessarily matters. 2 important docs could be more relevant than 5000 unimportant ones. But shows that this was longterm, organised, not a one-of www.generalbundesanwalt.de/SharedDocs/P...generalbundesanwalt.deHomepage - Festnahmen wegen mutmaßlicher landesverräterischer Ausspähung, Auskundschaften von Staatsgeheimnissen, versuchten Landesverrats und SpionageFestnahmen wegen mutmaßlicher landesverräterischer Ausspähung, Auskundschaften von Staatsgeheimnissen, versuchten Landesverrats und Spionage 16311
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5hLooking like this will turn into a huge intel scandal. AFAIK still very few details 040
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5hReminder that if RU tries to render UKRs NPPs inoperable by striking their cooling towers or transmission facilities UKR can respond in kind. 010
Reposted by Edward WalkerMark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 7hCorrection: typo in the first post. It’s Kevin Esvelt, not Esvalt. 11078
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5hHmmm. Maybe not plague. NB: “Some scientists argue civilization-threatening bioweapons are a fantasy. I wish they were correct, and that I've wasted years building defences.” 020
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 6hThread. Trump and his people are so dumb they doubtless thought Trump’s offer to help RU with the plague incident would be seen as an olive branch by Moscow rather than as an effort to promote panic, humiliate a Great Power that needs help from no one and esp not the US. 010
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 6hNB: “Euronews noted the attack as the first to take place in a NATO member’s economic zone.” 031
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 6hThread. Agree 100%. “[SKOR] supplies nearly a third of Russia’s seaborne petroleum-product imports and throws tantrums at Ukraine over two captured NK soldiers.” Kind of thing a different US administration that practiced actual diplomacy cld have ameliorated. 010
Reposted by Edward WalkerEuan MacDonald @euanmacdonald.bsky.social · 7hAnti-drone nets are being installed on Kyiv's Pivnichnyi (northern) Bridge. These will hopefully provide some protection from fascist Russia's drone attacks on civilian cars using the bridge. Such nets will likely appear on other Kyiv bridges. 0337
Reposted by Edward WalkerNOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 7hBGNES reports that two merchant ships were attacked by Russian drones off Bulgaria. One vessel sank and its crew is missing. Eighteen crew members from the second ship were evacuated, with some injured. Bulgaria’s government is convening an emergency meeting. #Europe 516350
Reposted by Edward WalkerI'm that one @chango-jango.bsky.social · 21hRussia's oil windfall fizzled as attacks and a rising ruble eat into export value, while production shrinks and debt widens. Guess the Urals pricing miracle wasn't enough to cover reality. 😏💥 023
Reposted by Edward WalkerYouGov America @today.yougov.com · 22hNew polling on how Europeans view Trump % with a favorable | unfavorable opinion of Trump, Sep 2026 🇫🇷 France 12% | 79% (net -67) 🇪🇸 Spain 12% | 86% (-74) 🇬🇧 Britain 10% | 85% (-75) 🇩🇪 Germany 9% | 87% (-78) 🇮🇹 Italy 8% | 84% (-76) 🇩🇰 Denmark 4% | 95% (-91) yougov.com/en-us/articl... 86130
Reposted by Edward WalkerMeduza in English @meduza.io · 21hRussia has intensified strikes on Ukrainian freight trains in recent weeks, leaving the country with almost no reserve locomotives, Ukraine’s agriculture minister told the FT. Kyiv is now seeking compatible replacements from European allies. meduza.io/en/news/2026...meduza.ioRussian strikes leave Ukraine with almost no spare locomotives, further complicating grain exports — MeduzaRussian forces have intensified attacks on Ukrainian freight trains in recent weeks, leaving Ukraine with almost no reserve locomotives, Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine’s minister of agrarian policy and… 094
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 23hThread. Pretty much exactly my take. NB: “…world wide pandemic has zero chance of happening. Plague is too deadly while our antibiotics are very good at dealing with it. But failure of safty, breaking international treaties and russian cover-ups are something to keep an eye out.” 021
Reposted by Edward WalkerNOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 05/10/2026❗️Ukraine’s additional air defense measures may be taking effect. Monitoring channels claim only about 4 of more than 30 jet-powered Shaheds targeting central Ukraine reached their destinations today, while over 130 conventional piston-powered drones were destroyed. #Ukraine 545580
Reposted by Edward WalkerThe Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 05/10/2026⚡️ Moldova aims to complete EU technical talks by 2028, join bloc by 2030. Moldova has "taken major strides towards membership," the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas said at the end of the 10th EU-Moldova Association Council meeting in Brussels.kyivindependent.comMoldova aims to complete EU technical talks by 2028, join bloc by 2030Moldova has "taken major strides towards membership," the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas said at the end of the 10th EU-Moldova Association Council meeting in Brussels. 116335
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Agree. IMO Putin has been terrrific at undermining RU long-term security. And unless smthg goes even more awry in the US (which I hope and think is unlikely), it will face a still powerful post-Trump US, ongoing dependency on a self-interested China, and the fear and hatred of most neighbors. 020
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 05/10/2026IMO EUR+ deep strike capabilities are the key conventional gap that needs plugging for NATO, and buying Tomahawks is helpful. But delivery of circa 440 is unlikely to start before 2030. missilematters.substack.com/p/germanys-t...missilematters.substack.comGermany's Tomahawk Procurement: Costs, Quantities, and Delivery TimelinesWhat €3.4 billion buys, when the missiles are likely to arrive, and what procurement rationales still exist. 010
Reposted by Edward WalkerIan Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 05/10/2026“We were afraid of the war [in Ukraine],” said one senior Estonian intelligence official. “Now we are afraid of the end of the war.” www.ft.com/content/0293...ft.comEstonia shifts troops closer to Russia in ‘active defence’ pushBaltic state prepares to carry out deep strikes inside its neighbour if it is attacked 021
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Good and sounds like the right balance: “… integrate conventional weapons with new capabilities… encourage greater defence investment and better preparedness… emphasises NATO's defensive nature and the need to avoid unintended provocations… [and] need for a collective response to hybrid threats.” 000
Reposted by Edward WalkerSavchenko Volodymyr @savchenkoua.bsky.social · 05/10/2026🇭🇺🇺🇦🇲🇩🇪🇺 Hungary may ease blocking of Ukraine and Moldova's EU accession talks — FT ⠀ Peter Magyar has instructed Hungarian diplomats not to obstruct a procedural step that will allow Ukraine and Moldova to move on to opening the next two negotiation clusters — the internal market and competitiveness. 37818
Reposted by Edward WalkerAnton Gerashchenko @antongerashchenko.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Within weeks,the USA is expected to receive its 1st shipment of Belarusian potash in 4yrs following the easing of U.S.sanctions The Belarusian Potash Company loaded 30,000tonnes of granular muriate of potash on to a Marshall Islands-owned ship at Russia’s Bronka port in St Petersburg on September 15 2112540
Reposted by Edward WalkerShipwreck @shipwreck75.bsky.social · 04/10/2026The United States rushed over the weekend to withdraw all 12 B-1 Air Force bombers from an air base in southern England after commanders received new threats about an Iran-backed plot against the installation, two U.S. officials said on Sunday. 1219952
Reposted by Edward WalkerD. Earl Stephens @dearlstephens.bsky.social · 04/10/2026📌The headlong rush to remove those B-1s from an allied air base in UK is NOT NORMAL. The intelligence necessitating such a chaotic withdrawal must have been daunting, and again points to the shoddy planning that went into this idiotic, unnecessary war. The world is far more dangerous place now. 24372121
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Tons of interest. NB: “RU invades Georgia—there is some outcry, then the West imposes sanctions… the hostile West has attacked RU with sanctions. That… RU did something—that is soon overlooked… this is all about the West’s competition with RU…” ecfr.eu/publication/...ecfr.euBewitched sleep: Russians’ views on Ukraine and the world – European Council on Foreign RelationsNew research shows Russians see little prospect of influencing the war in Ukraine, but expect relations with Europe to improve in the future. 000
Reposted by Edward Walker🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @militarynewsua.bsky.social · 04/10/2026❗️Over three months of the 🇺🇦Unmanned Systems Forces operation “Crimean Switch Off” (6 July–3 October 2026), 456 energy nodes were struck in the temporarily occupied territories and in Russia; in the last 10 days, 26912
Reposted by Edward WalkerShaun Pinner @shaunpinner.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Whatever the reasoning, striking Kyiv’s Northern Bridge with a drone in broad daylight, while civilians are using it, is deeply disturbing. A drone strike is hardly going to bring down the bridge. It does, however, put people’s lives at risk and begs the question, what Russia is trying to achieve? 2822154
Reposted by Edward WalkerAlina Pereverzieva 🇺🇦 @perevaa.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Yep, both Russian aircraft were completely destroyed. 2465
Reposted by Edward WalkerUlrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 04/10/2026This really sounds like the right people have drawn the right lessons 710418
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 04/10/2026NB: “The pro-Russian Sovereign Power party ranked third, with 11.7% (15 seats). Sovereign Power is Latvia's only political party that opposes military aid to Ukraine.” 051
Reposted by Edward WalkerThe Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 04/10/2026⚡️Update: German aid to Kyiv includes 'thousands' of IRIS-T air defense missiles. Berlin will deliver thousands of missiles for IRIS-T air defense systems as part of its latest support package, according to an agreement signed by the Defense Ministry and the German company Diehl Defense.kyivindependent.comGermany announces $1.46 billion in aid for Ukraine, including interceptor drones, air defense missilesThe package was announced by President Volodymyr Zelensky and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at a joint press conference in Kyiv. 1036664
Reposted by Edward WalkerKyiv Post @kyivpost.com · 04/10/2026Germany committed a €1.3B military and energy aid package to Ukraine, alongside 15 bilateral agreements worth over €8.5B, Chancellor Merz announced in Kyiv. The deal delivers air defense, long-range capabilities, drones, and grid repairs. www.kyivpost.com/post/86083 0299
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 04/10/2026And that ofc has to meet US needs plus allies/sales in general, in the face of the huge depletion of US, Israeli, Gulf states etc stocks thanks to Bibi and Trump’s Iran War. 000
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 04/10/2026AFAIK Lockheed Martin produces about 50 PAC-3 Patriot interceptors per month. 010
Reposted by Edward WalkerWarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Russia currently has up to 700 ballistic missiles in reserve and produces up to 130-140 such missiles per month, Zelensky says. 312917
Reposted by Edward Walker🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @militarynewsua.bsky.social · 04/10/2026❗️German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Berlin is already responding to Russian hybrid attacks and is not waiting: after an attempted attack on Leipzig airport on August 4, Germany closed the Russian consulate general in Bonn, 3386
Reposted by Edward Walker🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @militarynewsua.bsky.social · 04/10/2026❗️German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he would not let himself be intimidated by threats from Moscow amid his visit to Kyiv: even if they were linked to the trip, it would not affect his decision. He stressed that he would make the visits he considered necessary, 14510
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Exc update. NB: “The bulk of [RU] losses are being inflicted in the battle for Dobropillia... though the RUs exaggerate their progress, that does not mean that they are not making any. Their massive build-up forces in this area ensures that the battle for Dobropillia will be intense and challenging” 000