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Ian Kearns

@ianpkearns.bsky.social
2.9K followers 742 following 157 posts

Former Advisor to UK Parliament on National Security Strategy. Co-Founder, European Leadership Network. Author, Collapse: Europe After the European Union, published by @bitebackpublishing.bsky.social Find me on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/iankearns1

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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 15h
“We were afraid of the war [in Ukraine],” said one senior Estonian intelligence official. “Now we are afraid of the end of the war.” www.ft.com/content/0293...
ft.com
Estonia shifts troops closer to Russia in ‘active defence’ push
Baltic state prepares to carry out deep strikes inside its neighbour if it is attacked
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Can’t fully go along with this piece from @stephenkb.bsky.social The biggest problem for the #libdems is that they don’t have a coherent description of the problems facing the country, to which their policies are the answer. No story. www.ft.com/content/f309...
ft.com
Changing leader is not the panacea many Lib Dems think it is
The party faces serious structural problems in an era of growing political polarisation
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Even if they can agree a way to do this, which is a big if, that covers only one part of the AI arms race. Will China agree to slow down, and if it did, how would a slow down be verified? www.ft.com/content/3122...
ft.com
Rivals Altman and Musk rally behind Dario Amodei’s call for an AI slowdown
Warring tech bosses unite behind warnings that humans could lose control of the technology
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Very good piece from @lucyfisher.ft.com It gets to the heart of both the economic and security implications of access to frontier models. This is about national dependence on unreliable ‘partners’, and why it is a huge risk for the UK. www.ft.com/content/418e...
ft.com
UK examines economic hit from loss of access to frontier AI models
Urgent assessment comes after Donald Trump blocked foreign national access to Anthropic’s Fable 5
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Great game. Great performance. And really good to be there with my two boys. Come on @bradfordcity.bsky.social!
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
I’d like us all to get along but if I have to join the Rebel Alliance to fight for freedom…. www.ft.com/content/a44e...
ft.com
Smile, you’re on camera: when the boss wants to read your mood
Patent records show how many companies are interested in trying to record how people feel
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
I’d like us all to get along but if I have to join the Rebel Alliance to fight for freedom…. www.ft.com/content/a44e...
ft.com
Smile, you’re on camera: when the boss wants to read your mood
Patent records show how many companies are interested in trying to record how people feel
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
“Initial evidence suggests aerial drone, found near Ukrainian cargo planes at German airport, came from Russia.” www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a...
theguardian.com
The Leipzig drone bomb marks a dangerous escalation for Europe
Initial evidence suggests aerial drone, found near Ukrainian cargo planes at German airport, came from Russia
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
“Initial evidence suggests aerial drone, found near Ukrainian cargo planes at German airport, came from Russia.” www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a...
theguardian.com
The Leipzig drone bomb marks a dangerous escalation for Europe
Initial evidence suggests aerial drone, found near Ukrainian cargo planes at German airport, came from Russia
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
issuing correction on a previous post of mine, regarding Vladimir Putin. you do not, under any circumstances, "gotta hand it to him"
nytimes.com
Bluesky Says Kremlin Is Hacking Its Platform to Spread Propaganda
The company said it was fighting Russian efforts to hijack real users’ accounts to post fake content, an apparently novel tactic.
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Wildfires, anyone?
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WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Ukrainian monitoring channels are warning of a massive Russian shelling tonight, and Kyiv residents are already heading to the subway.
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Recorded this conversation with @jameskerlindsay.bsky.social last year and just took a look back over it. I stand by pretty much every word. youtube.com/watch?v=MWTI...
youtube.com
Europe Doesn't Need America | Ian Kearns
YouTube video by Prof James Ker-Lindsay
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Recorded this conversation with @jameskerlindsay.bsky.social last year and just took a look back over it. I stand by pretty much every word. youtube.com/watch?v=MWTI...
youtube.com
Europe Doesn't Need America | Ian Kearns
YouTube video by Prof James Ker-Lindsay
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Awaiting the details, but there is no scenario in which Saudi enrichment of uranium is a good idea. And if the deal is allowing it without strict IAEA safeguards, the Trump administration is effectively abandoning commitment to the norms of the non-proliferation regime. news.sky.com/story/us-sig...
news.sky.com
US signs nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia
The US energy department said the "peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement" would help establish "a decades-long, multi-billion-dollar partnership".
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
👀
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Important day. Will the Europeans rise to the level if events, or show themselves incapable of knowing the difference between politics as usual and historically pivotal events? #ukraine #eusanctions #russia giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... The EU needs to hold together on Russia sanctions
giftarticle.ft.com
The EU needs to hold together on Russia sanctions
Cost of trying to protect domestic interests may be to embolden Moscow
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
If you want to get close to what the war in #Ukraine is really like, worth listening to this fascinating conversation between @shashj.bsky.social and Jack Watling of @rusi.bsky.social War in Ukraine: has the tide really turned? www.economist.com/insider/insi...
economist.com
War in Ukraine: has the tide really turned? | The Economist Insider
The war in Ukraine is in flux. The country's deep strikes inside Russia have drawn a lot of attention. But Ukraine is also improving recruitment while pioneering new tactics that could eventually brea...
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Christopher Miller @christopherjm.ft.com · 21/07/2026
BREAKING: Volodymyr Zelenskyy has chosen Mykhailo Drapatyi to be commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces and dismissed controversial general and close ally Oleksandr Syrsky in the biggest shake-up of the country’s military leadership since 2024. @financialtimes.com
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
A lot of BS talked about importance of Streeting not having military experience. We have a civilian led military, and this is a political job. Streeting is a good communicator and worker of the Whitehall machine. Some in defence don’t know what’s in their own interests. news.sky.com/story/russia...
news.sky.com
New defence secretary Wes Streeting hits out at Russia after live-fire exercise 40 miles off UK coast
The Neustrashimy has been escorting Russian 'shadow fleet' oil tankers through the English Channel and was seen in the North Sea earlier this month. This latest drill in international waters lasted fo...
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
I cannot agree with the recommendation of a European force going into #Ukraine before a ceasefire here. It would not be a serious fighting force, would become a target for Russian attack without any real capacity to fight back, and would not miraculously increase…. economist.com/by-invitatio...
economist.com
Would Europeans fight, if it came to that?
Putting boots on the ground would not help Ukraine, but it might help Europe find the stomach for war, writes Nathalie Tocci
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
This is obviously appalling. But the costs of imposing sanctions need to be borne equally by all members collectively. A costs lie where they fall approach will always be exposed to this. www.ft.com/content/fe52... Athens blocks new EU sanctions on Russia to shield Greek shipping company
ft.com
Athens blocks new EU sanctions on Russia to shield Greek shipping company
George Prokopiou’s Dynagas specialises in transporting cargoes from Moscow’s Arctic LNG
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
I cannot agree with the recommendation of a European force going into #Ukraine before a ceasefire here. It would not be a serious fighting force, would become a target for Russian attack without any real capacity to fight back, and would not miraculously increase…. economist.com/by-invitatio...
economist.com
Would Europeans fight, if it came to that?
Putting boots on the ground would not help Ukraine, but it might help Europe find the stomach for war, writes Nathalie Tocci
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick land some big, important points here. On current trajectory, Europe is in serious peril. www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/e...
sueddeutsche.de
Top-economists warn„China and the US will eat up Europe piece by piece“
If Europe doesn't achieve technological autonomy, it will become economic prey to superpowers, Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick predict. But the decline of German industry can be stopped.
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
There can’t be any serious security analyst out there who thinks what #Trump says on any given day is an indication of what he would actually do in any given situation. It’s meaningless, as is his signing off on the language in the #NATO communique. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
theguardian.com
Sabre-rattling to ‘tremendous love’: erratic Trump dominates final hours of Nato summit
Alliance leaders, who had feared the worst, will hail US president’s renewed support for article 5 as key victory
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Graphic account of the atmosphere in parts of #Russia here, as the authorities engage in sweeps to put more men at the front. Noticeably fewer men on the streets….One man says he’s moving to the countryside because “Going to the office will become suicide.” economist.com/europe/2026/...
economist.com
Russians are growing anxious and angry
The war has come home and is everyone’s problem
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
As the effort to paper over #NATO cracks continues today, Martin Wolf reminds that the alliance exists to defend values, not just territory. Those values are in peril, threatened by leaders like Trump and Erdogan. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... The battle for the future of democratic republics
giftarticle.ft.com
The battle for the future of democratic republics
Celebrations in the US for its 250th anniversary are in part a wake
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
If Trump did this, implying the closure of all those bases and airfields in Europe, what would that do to US global force projection capability? www.ft.com/content/a23f...
ft.com
Trump threatens to remove all US troops from Europe
US president revives calls for his country to take over Greenland
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
Such a deeply atmospheric song. It seems somehow, and beautifully, to capture the full tragedy of Munich. open.spotify.com/track/5JgERn...
open.spotify.com
Du Träumst
Isobel Waller-Bridge, Tara Nome Doyle · Munich - The Edge of War (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) · Song · 2022
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
It has been a long, tough night for Ukraine. More Patriot missiles would help. www.ft.com/content/f859...
ft.com
Russia unleashes huge missile and drone attacks on Kyiv
Bombardment follows Zelenskyy’s warning that Moscow is preparing ‘massive strike’
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Five Eyes statement here, warning that the “AI threat wave is months, not years away. “AI is not a future consideration – it is already here.” www.cisa.gov/news-events/...
cisa.gov
Five Eyes Cyber Security Agencies Statement | CISA
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Story-telling is the most powerful force on earth. Which is why this piece about divorce myths built around Iran on one side and Greenland on the other matters so much. www.ft.com/content/4a9b...
ft.com
Back-stabbing myths are driving the US and Europe further apart
Competing narratives of abandonment — from Iran to Greenland — could lead to Nato’s permanent unravelling
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
It didn’t take long. We’re back to @fromtga.bsky.social’s question. A German Europe or a European Germany? www.ft.com/content/dc32... The new German military question
ft.com
The new German military question
France and other countries in Europe fear that Berlin is planning to go it alone
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
A long read, but one of the most consequential ones on the future of European power in years. #ai #geopolitics #eu europe2031.ai
europe2031.ai
Europe 2031 — What getting AI wrong means for us
A five-year scenario about AI and Europe's impending slide into irrelevance, with a 2034 epilogue that describes how the collapse of the European model could have been prevented.
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
A long read, but one of the most consequential ones on the future of European power in years. #ai #geopolitics #eu europe2031.ai
europe2031.ai
Europe 2031 — What getting AI wrong means for us
A five-year scenario about AI and Europe's impending slide into irrelevance, with a 2034 epilogue that describes how the collapse of the European model could have been prevented.
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Great second half. But we look vulnerable in the air at the back. Maguire should be there. #england #threelions
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
You can have liberal, fascist Chinese Communist #AI. Macron is right. “The challenge before us is a frontier model,” he told reporters on the ground in Evian. “Better regulation is needed to avoid it falling into the hands of an authoritarian regime.” www.politico.eu/article/ai-a...
politico.eu
West plays nice on AI in bid to shut out China
Washington’s aggressive action over AI models fails to derail talks at the G7.
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Premature. Ronaldo will get goals in this tournament. Maybe cast your gaze at some of his teammates.
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
It seems harsh to describe the entire parliamentary #LabourParty “intellectually arid” as this @thetimes.com leader does. But it does view geopolitics as a spectator sport, rather than as essential to national sovereignty and individual liberty. It is a fatal flaw in Labour’s world view.
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Strong piece from @ivodaalder.bsky.social here, on US decoupling from Europe and its implications for #NATO deterrence policy. www.politico.eu/article/defe...
politico.eu
Defense decoupling is no longer just a European fear — it’s Trump’s policy
Ending Europe’s dependence on U.S. capabilities is one thing, denying allies the ability to defend themselves is an entirely different matter.
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Pretty powerful signal that a) declarations of spending increases lack credibility in many countries and b) the money needs to go into drones, missiles and AI, less into the old platforms and providers. www.ft.com/content/1fa6... European defence stock rally goes into reverse on funding concerns
ft.com
European defence stock rally goes into reverse on funding concerns
Higher government borrowing costs and changes in warfare have hit one of the biggest equity trades of recent years
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
He does not have the political clout to move the needle on the defence spending settlement. By definition, @danjarvismp.bsky.social has accepted being the frontman for a disaster of a defence policy, and will be there only as long as #Starmer himself.
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Both #Starmer and #Reeves need to go. The problem is not just the outcome. It is the totally incompetent process (again) that led to it. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Healey quits as defence secretary in row with Starmer over military spending
Minister accuses Keir Starmer of putting UK’s security at risk at a time of growing international threats
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Bring it on. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
theguardian.com
Parents in the UK: how do you feel about the potential under-16s social media ban?
With ministers considering measures that could include restrictions on under-16s’ access to social media, we would like to hear from parents and carers about what changes they want to see
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
A call here, for an AI disarmament treaty between the US and China. It’s a good piece from Martin Wolf. www.ft.com/content/8724... Why the world must agree to regulate AI
ft.com
Why the world must agree to regulate AI
A technological disarmament pact between the US and China would make everyone feel more secure
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Terrific piece by Niall Ferguson on why #AI frontier models like #ClaudeMythos are destroying strategic stability and may provoke short-term action by #China on #Taiwan www.hoover.org/research/art...
hoover.org
Artificial Intelligence And Global Security
The rapid development of artificial intelligence has produced two barely controlled AI races, one between around a handful of companies, and the other between two superpowers. Neither race is in any m...
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
June 6, 1944. D-Day. Always try to remember you live in freedom because of the sacrifice of others. www.iwm.org.uk/history/seco...
iwm.org.uk
D-Day Explained
IWM curator John Delaney explores how the Allies prepared for D-Day - and the significance of the events of the 6 June 1944.
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Some important detail on what forces are to be cut from those earmarked for Europe in the event of a crisis or conflict. www.ft.com/content/a217...
ft.com
US plans cuts to Nato’s rapid response force
European allies seek clarity over removal of American naval and air assets that can be dispatched if Russia attacks
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Am I the only person thinking this is all heading to state ownership/control of #AI? The recursive self-improvement described in this piece, if it succeeds but causes serious security threats, will just be too powerful to be left in private hands. www.ft.com/content/7cc7...
ft.com
‘Close to the Terminator narrative’: the dawn of self-improving AI
Industry chiefs say a looming tech breakthrough might deliver superintelligence. Safety experts say we’re not ready
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Ian Kearns @ianpkearns.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Interested in Russian under-sea cable operations? Here’s a good summary of their equivalent activity in space. theconversation.com/how-russia-i... via @aleixnadal.bsky.social
theconversation.com
How Russia is intercepting communications from European satellites
Two Russian satellites appear to have been shadowing European spacecraft in Earth orbit.
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