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Edward Walker

@gnuggat.bsky.social
607 followers 170 following 3.6K posts

Retired. 1993-2017 Exec Director of the Berkeley Program in Soviet/Post-Soviet Studies, Adj Assoc Prof Political Science.

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Asked Gemini why the plume from the UKR drone strike on Elektrostal warehouses was so large and this is what I got.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
More on this.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Some IMO partial relief for RU economy but very bad news for GOP election prospects in November and thus for Trump. Keep in mind that bad political news for Trump is also bad news for Putin/RU. Note Brent is up 31.57% YTD.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Interesting. NB: The vessel loads up in Bol’shoi Bor (see map). “The ship is Russia’s only FSRU… It’s expensive, but it’s also crucial. With UKR intensifying attacks against RU infrastructure across both land and sea, RU is acting to try to protect the Vasilevskiy as well.” 1/2
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Also in the Gulf of Finland.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Not a good sign for the US economy, or for Trump politically, going forward.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Pretty good indicator of how the war is going for Trump.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Brent crude up 71.50% over past three months.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Not good.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Brent crude down from high of $119/bbl yesterday to $84/bbl just now. Still up ofc from where it was before US/ISR attack on Iran.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Here we go.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
NB also “rebuild them civilizational alliance with European states” — aka promote right-wing nationalist-populism with a strong dose of white racism thrown in.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
No relief in sight from the cold in Kyiv (and ofc it’s not just Kyiv).
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
Cold and getting colder in Belgorod now, not just Kyiv. A reminder that this war of RU aggression is massively negative sum — bad for most everyone, notably RUs.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
Agree, esp re playing the long game — and by implication not shutting the door on US righting itself. Fact is there’s tons of uncertainty re Trumpism in the US. But EUR leaders have to try to thread the needle of preparing for the worst on the one hand while keeping the door open on the other.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Regardless of whether there’s any operational significance to this (doubt it), Putin will certainly assume this is just Trump bloviating. But we appear to be a long way from the heady days of the early Trump 2.0 bromance with Putin.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
More evidence Trump *may*, in fact, be turning on RU and significantly upping economic pressure on it.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
*IF* this happens (100 percent tariff on countries buying RU oil in 48 +/- days), very big deal. Watch oil prices, as will suggest extent to which markets believe Trump is likely to follow through. So far not much movement for Brent crude (or in other markets AFAIK).
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 15/06/2025
Been wondering the same, esp if the Israel-Iran War last a long time, as seems likely. That Inozemtsev article I just shared was obviously written before the jump in oil prices.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Brent down another 4.28% today. Not a good sign for the US economy, the global economy, and especially the RU economy.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Well below “correction” territory.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
If we get a significant US recession it will impact the RU economy by (inter alia) lowering oil prices. And the worse the recession, and the more widespread the impact around the world, the greater the impact on the price of oil. Down c 5% so far today.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
S&P is now down c 10% from peak, so a “correction” that’s understood as a reasonably reliable indicator of trouble ahead for the real economy. IMO an enormous amount is at stake re whether the US economy turns out to be in real trouble after these next two quarters or so of v low or negative growth.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Presumably the claim here is “the worst 50 days *for the stock market after an inauguration*. Smthg pretty pretty bad happened in early 2020 (which Trump also presided over). Re equities, also note early 2022 (Biden). For better or worse, the sell off so far isn’t particularly dramatic.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Smthg to watch re RU econ. Brent $ already down 8% YTD, 11.8% over 12 months. If tariffs/trade war and fiscal shock etc tank US econ (not that big an “if”), oil price will tank along with it. Another “be careful what you wish for” risk for RU. Also why a negative sum game is, well, negative sum.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Forgive a personal note on USAID. This is me on top of (I think) a USAF C-130 in 1961 in Somalia (my dad was posted there as a USFSO).The plane was bring emergency aid for a famine in Somalia’s Ogaden, organized by USAID, as I recall. Just one of countless such missions over the years. 😢
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