Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/11/2025Link here: oliverwkim.com/papers/Kore... Looking forward to hearing your questions / comments! 000
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/11/2025Our paper shows East Asia's miracle wasn't just domestic policy; it was catalyzed by geopolitical demand shocks that built long-term export capacity. A similar shock caused by the Korean War helped lift Japan in the 1950s, making firms like Toyota global brands. 100
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/11/2025War procurement had huge aggregate effects. By 1973, we estimate that contracting firms accounted for 20% of South Korea's total exports. 100
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/11/2025Q: Was this just the Korean government picking future winners? Our data lets us test this: we see the state's firm-level export targets, set before contracts were awarded. Targets didn't rise before the contract, but realized exports did—ruling out selection on expected growth. 100
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/11/2025Effects weren't just U.S. sales. Winning a contract led to a lasting expansion into third-country markets, suggesting firms gained new capabilities & reputation. Contracting firms also responded more strongly to 🇰🇷's 1970s HCI drive, showing contracts + industrial policy were complementary. 100
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/11/2025To study this, we built a new firm-level dataset linking U.S. DoD procurement contracts to Korean export records. The causal impact of winning a contract? Massive. We find it caused a 46 pct point jump in the firm's likelihood of exporting, and a tripling of export value. 100
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/11/2025In 1966, Park Chung-hee and the US struck a deal: in exchange for 🇰🇷 sending troops to South Vietnam, the US agreed to procure equipment and services from South Korean firms. These contracts summed to $766m, peaking at 2.9% of Korea's GDP in 1968—rivaling the Marshall Plan. 100
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/11/2025What were the causes of South Korea's export miracle? My new paper w @philippbarteska, @straightedge, @seung_econ explores a major overlooked factor: U.S. military procurement during the Vietnam War. We bring new evidence to the Q of how geopolitics shapes development. 🧵: 150
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 19/02/2025My year-end post on Global Developments is up—if you have any comments / feedback over the previous year of posts, please chime in! One Year of Global Developments: www.global-developments.org/p/one-year-o...global-developments.orgOne Year of Global DevelopmentsLooking Backward, Looking Ahead 161
Reposted by Oliver Kimapoorva lal @apoorvalal.com · 17/02/2025was tinkering with some OCR and decided to update an old econ history OCR example. What a difference a couple of years makes: old: github.com/apoorvalal/h... new: github.com/apoorvalal/h...github.comhistorical_data_extraction/DocParse.ipynb at master · apoorvalal/historical_data_extractionminimal example of layoutparser use. Contribute to apoorvalal/historical_data_extraction development by creating an account on GitHub. 54210
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 12/02/2025These charts come from my new 🌐 Global Developments 🌐 blog post, "A World Without Aid". Check it out below: www.global-developments.org/p/a-world-w... 010
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 12/02/2025By comparison, US aid to Sub-Saharan Africa has remained relatively low—it has never exceeded $15 per person since 1960. Roughly $5 of that goes to PEPFAR, one of the most effective public health interventions we know of. 100
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 12/02/2025Similarly, Taiwan received as much aid as all of Africa, into the early 1960s. Some of this aid supported the Joint Committee on Rural Reconstruction, which oversaw the famous 1950s land reform, and also crucial work on ag extension. 110
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 12/02/2025The geography of aid has shifted enormously over time. One crazy fact is that South Korea received more aid than all of Sub-Saharan Africa combined, well into the 1970s. An under-appreciated feature of the East Asian Miracle! 100
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 12/02/2025Quick 🧵 on American aid spending, to accompany my new Substack (link below) US aid obligations have remained remarkably steady in real terms since WWII, rarely exiting a band of $20-60 billion in 2023 dollars. Surprisingly, the year with the most aid obligations was... 1948! 153
Reposted by Oliver KimLee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 12/02/2025Striking set of graphs from @global-developments.org - for years South Korea & Taiwan received more US aid than all of Africa combined www.global-developments.org/p/a-world-wi... 175
Reposted by Oliver KimOliver Kim @global-developments.org · 04/02/2025New 🌐Global Developments🌐 post: How Do Exchange Rates Work, Anyway? Folk wisdom, dollar dominance, and hot money www.global-developments.org/p/how-do-exc...global-developments.orgHow Do Exchange Rates Work, Anyway?Folk wisdom, dollar dominance, and hot money 042
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 04/02/2025New 🌐Global Developments🌐 post: How Do Exchange Rates Work, Anyway? Folk wisdom, dollar dominance, and hot money www.global-developments.org/p/how-do-exc...global-developments.orgHow Do Exchange Rates Work, Anyway?Folk wisdom, dollar dominance, and hot money 042
Reposted by Oliver KimKen Opalo @kopalo.bsky.social · 22/01/2025Excellent post from @global-developments.org (with a moving personal story). No, South Korea Was Not Poorer Than Kenya in 1960 www.global-developments.org/p/no-south-k...global-developments.orgNo, South Korea Was Not Poorer Than Kenya in 1960With A Personal Coda 12111
Reposted by Oliver KimAlice Evans @draliceevans.bsky.social · 21/01/2025In 1960, South Korea and Taiwan were educational outliers. Hugely important graph by @global-developments.org, echoing a point made in @drodrik.bsky.social (1995). This fact is crucial to understanding East Asia’s economic success. 22611
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 29/12/2024Thanks! In at least the standard neoclassical model, the price of land isn't the main channel, it's more changing demand for goods in sectors that do exist. My advisor Jon Steinsson's recent paper on England documents only modest increases in land rents after 1760: eml.berkeley.edu/~enakamura/p...eml.berkeley.edu 000
Reposted by Oliver KimOliver Kim @global-developments.org · 17/12/2024New Post: Why Did the Industrial Revolution Happen? And Other Simple Questions www.global-developments.org/p/why-did-th...global-developments.orgWhy Did the Industrial Revolution Happen?And Other Simple Questions 23713
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 17/12/2024New Post: Why Did the Industrial Revolution Happen? And Other Simple Questions www.global-developments.org/p/why-did-th...global-developments.orgWhy Did the Industrial Revolution Happen?And Other Simple Questions 23713
Reposted by Oliver KimAriel Ron @arielron.bsky.social · 06/12/2024My colleague @MacabeKeliher just published this excellent article about the role of Taiwan Machinery Manufacturing Corporations, as SOE, in Taiwan's postwar economic development. Part of what he calls the "archival turn" in studies of the developmental state. Interesting stuff! 1165
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 06/12/2024I always loved Lee Kuan Yew's description of Korean protest: "The Koreans are a fearsome people. When they riot, they are as organized and nearly as disciplined as the riot police who confront them... When their workers and students fight in the streets... they look like soldiers at war." 0181
Reposted by Oliver KimOliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/12/2024What do we call a poor country—"underdeveloped", "developing", an "emerging market"? A potted history (and Global Dev post) on our changing words for poverty—the rhetoric of underdevelopment: 235
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/12/2024Words reflect power, much more than they can reshape it. In the face of staggering inequality, without transformative change, "Global South" and new terms will likely follow "Third World" as an insult. More in my post: www.global-developments.org/p/the-rhetor...global-developments.orgThe Rhetoric of UnderdevelopmentA potted history of what we call poor countries 000
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/12/2024These terms, sadly, have also become pejoratives—useful metaphors for rich countries to describe when things don't work. Joe Biden once quipped in 2014 that LaGuardia was like a "Third World country"; the MSA served by LaGuardia has a higher GDP than all of Sub Saharan Africa. 100
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/12/2024What do we call poor countries as a group? "Third World", invented by French demographer Alfred Sauvy, was dominant for most of the century. "Global South"—coined by SDS President Carl Oglesby—and "BRICS"—derived from a Goldman Sachs research report—are its two new competitors. 141
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/12/2024After decolonization, "underdeveloped country" was briefly dominant. In the optimistic 60s, "developing country" took over—even as development in Africa + LatAm stalled in the 70s-80s. China's rise in the 90s saw the emergence of "emerging markets"—before those disappointed too 101
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 03/12/2024What do we call a poor country—"underdeveloped", "developing", an "emerging market"? A potted history (and Global Dev post) on our changing words for poverty—the rhetoric of underdevelopment: 235
Reposted by Oliver KimJesse Rothstein @jrothst.bsky.social · 02/12/2024The AEA/ASSA meetings are in SF in January. Workers at several conference hotels, including 2 headquarters hotels, are on strike. @aaronsojourner.org put together a very useful explainer. aaronsojourner.org/hotel-worker...aaronsojourner.orgHotel workers' strike and the 2025 ASSA annual meeting - Aaron SojournerBy Hannah Archambault, Jennifer Cohen, and Aaron Sojourner Are you planning to attend the 2025 ASSA meetings in San Francisco? If so, then you are planning to attend events at a hotel where the empl... 12917
Reposted by Oliver KimJohn Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 30/11/2024New paper shows that recent $15+ minimum wage hikes have no disemployment effects. static1.squarespace.com/static/5e0fd... 10322111
Reposted by Oliver KimOliver Kim @global-developments.org · 27/11/2024🚨 New Blog! 🚨 GDP is everywhere in development. But in Zambia in 2010, the national accounts were prepared by just one (1!) person. How much can we trust developing country GDP? A 🧵 and post on Morten Jerven's 2013 classic, Poor Numbers, on how African GDP is actually made— 49837
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 27/11/2024Read more in my post on my blog, 🌐 Global Developments 🌐: www.global-developments.org/p/how-m…global-developments.orgHow Much Should We Trust Developing Country GDP?A Review of Morten Jerven's Poor Numbers, A Decade On 0134
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 27/11/2024Earlier in November we all got a big lesson in the power of sampling error. Similarly, we should start treating GDP more as a statistical estimate, less as a certainty. One good step would be publishing margins of error—thought to be at least 3%!!—alongside GDP growth estimates. 1110
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 27/11/2024Nigeria—thought to be the 6th largest country in the world—has not had a census since 2006. The 5 censuses it has conducted have been marred by violence and political infighting. We simply do not know how many people live in what we think is Africa's largest country. 1193
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 27/11/2024African statistical agencies are understaffed and underfunded—and are often left guessing the size of the economy from population figures, which are themselves extrapolated from decades-old. In Zambia in 2010, the national accounts were prepared by one (1!) person. 2266
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 27/11/2024According to the Penn World Tables, Tanzania's GDP fell by 33% in 1986—worse than the Great Depression. Only problem? It's likely a statistical artifact. As state control receded in the 80s, the invisible informal economy grew—leading to underestimates of GDP by 30-200%! 1101
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 27/11/2024🚨 New Blog! 🚨 GDP is everywhere in development. But in Zambia in 2010, the national accounts were prepared by just one (1!) person. How much can we trust developing country GDP? A 🧵 and post on Morten Jerven's 2013 classic, Poor Numbers, on how African GDP is actually made— 49837
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 19/11/2024Interesting! How much of this do you think is compositional / diversionary (i.e., there has to be *some* place in India where industry is concentrated)? Curious for the implications for policy replicability across other Indian states. 100
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 19/11/2024Q: why does Gujarat have a higher industrial share than other Indian states? Is this a longstanding historical difference, the product of policy, something else? (Chart from Data for India) 240
Oliver Kim @global-developments.org · 18/11/2024Post a picture you took (no description) to bring some zen to the timeline 020
Reposted by Oliver KimMatt Clancy @mattsclancy.bsky.social · 16/11/2024I made a Google quiz using the poems listed on the paper’s OSF site if you want to try your luck at guessing which are human and which are LLM. forms.gle/nGCGawDb9c6f...forms.gleGoogle Forms: Sign-inAccess Google Forms with a personal Google account or Google Workspace account (for business use). 317233
Reposted by Oliver KimPseudoerasmus @pseudoerasmus.bsky.social · 12/11/2024ok I've figured out how to add people now, I thought someone would have already made this but does not appear to be so... Growth & Development Starter Park (distinct from economic history starter packs of which there are TWO already ;-) go.bsky.app/SmQgVK4 0246
Reposted by Oliver KimJames Lin @jamestwotree.bsky.social · 13/11/2024It's alive! My book now has a webpage on the University of California Press @ucpress.bsky.social website: www.ucpress.edu/books/in-the... Will be available open access in April 2025!ucpress.eduIn the Global Vanguard by James Lin - PaperScholarship is a powerful tool for changing how people think, plan, and govern. By giving voice to bright minds and bold ideas, we seek to foster understanding and drive progressive change. 1111136