iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

We have one sensitivity scenario where we show that you don’t need CO2 storage if you have 370 MtCO2/yr natural sinks by 2050. However, current forest sinks are already quite uncertain and it’s hard to bet on them in the future not least due to increasing climate change impacts ;(.

There are other CDR options we have not included like enhanced rock weathering, biochar or ocean alkalinity enhancement. I’d asses their contribution to the EU 2050 goal as quite small, though, given their current status.

I also share concerns about CO2 storage not scaling up as quickly as needed. Technical feasibility of geological CO2 storage is established, though. Other technologies for hard-to-abate sectors (green H2, e-fuels, chemical recycling) are also in early stages.

iogpeurope.org

Thanks for your interest. Different types of CO2 storage are currently explored; among them depleted oil and gas fields and saline aquifers. See iogpeurope.org/wp-content/u... for currently operational and planned projects.

iogpeurope.org

7/ It is critical for the #EUCommission to start thinking about the role of residual fossils at net-zero. Uncertainty around how much fossils can still be used might deter mitigation action. Our scenario analysis informs on implications of a far-reaching (90%) and a full fossil phase-out by 2050.

6/ In summary, we find that the EU net-zero goal implies a far-reaching phase-out of fossils (90%). This already is a tremendous effort, but is well in reach. Even a full fossil phase-out would be technically possible but comes with additional transformation challenges.

5/ Technologically, meeting net-zero in 2050 with either 10% or no residual fossils is, essentially, a choice between CO2 storage and e-fuels. The full phase-out requires drastic up-scaling of e-fuels, while the 90% case needs more CO2 storage. Note that both technologies need CO2 capture!

4/ To avoid the last 10% of fossils, marginal abatement costs increase substantially (from 460 to 630 EUR/tCO2). However, there is quite some uncertainty (see sensitivity scenarios). Aggregate mitigation costs do not increase as much as only few sectors are affected by high marginal costs.

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3/ In the 90% phase-out scenario, fossil emissions of about 260 MtCO2/yr remain mainly in chemicals, aviation and shipping. For the full phase-out, remaining natural gas and oil-based products get replaced by expensive carbon-neutral e-fuels and a shifting of #bioenergy.

2/ In addition, if we limit #CCS as much as possible (to around 100 MtCO2/yr), net-zero is achieved with a near-total phase-out of fossil fuels (>99%). The 90% phase-out can be achieved mainly by #renewables and #electrification as well as some bioenergy and hydrogen. The last 10% require #e-fuels.

1/ There are hardly any scenarios out there that reach net-zero in the EU with low or no fossil fuel use. We show that taking into the 2050 net-zero target, the EU needs to reduce fossil very substantially, by at least 90% (black dashed line).

From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system - Nature Communications

Our new study an EU #fossil #phase-out is out in @natcomms.nature.com. www.nature.com/articles/s41... Afaik, this is the first #IAM study investigating a complete fossil phase-out. How much do we need to reduce fossils for the EU 2050 goal? And would even a full fossil phase-out be possible?

nature.com

This scenario study investigates how the EU net-zero target can be reached with varying levels of residual fossil fuels. Reducing fossils by only 90% relies on substantial carbon storage, while a full...

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Felix Schreyer @fschreyer.bsky.social · 06/11/2025

Study on lowest still achievable global warming by @climateanalytics.org featuring our integrated assessment model REMIND from @pik-potsdam.bsky.social and my colleagues Fabrice Lécuyer, Chris Gong and @gunnarenergyclima.bsky.social.

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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 06/10/2025

Australia's grid operator has a clear line of sight to 100% renewables. There's nothing unknown or exotic required. It'll be fun when the first large/major economies start hitting the goal. Too bad the US is likely to be at the rear of the pack.

canarymedia.com

As coal fades, Australia looks to realize dream of 100% renewable…

The country’s grid operator says shifting from coal to clean power is not only possible but inevitable. The work there could provide a road map for other…

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 05/08/2025

You're so close

r/ChatGPTPro
u/vurto • 28d
If ChatGPT is not consistently dependable, how are we suppose to use it for actual work?
Discussion
It's behavior and results can randomly change due to some OpenAl tweaking that's opaque.
On some days it can't even keep track of a fresh chat, it can't do calculations, it can't sort through a chat to extract relevant information, and when it's suppose to refer to source material in a PDF, it doesn't.
All because OpenAl trained it for fluency and basically to simulate whatever it can for user satisfaction.
I can use it for general chats, philosophical stuff, therapy, but nothing serious. I'm pro Al, but I approach it with skepticism knowing it's undependable (as I do with anything I read).
And prompts can be interpreted/executed differently across users' own interaction with their Als so it's not truly scalable.
How does the business world / leaders expect staff to adopt Al if it's not consistently dependable? It doesn't even calculate like a calculator. If the internet start claiming 2+2=5, that's what it'll answer with.
I'd use it for hobbies and pet projects but I can't imagine using it for anything "mission critical".

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Wolfgang Blau @wblau.bsky.social · 02/08/2025

Staggering figures. Source: www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/b... “Nepal, The Country Where 76% of Cars Sold Are Electric”

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Tom Brown @nworbmot.bsky.social · 15/06/2025

This graph from @fschreyer.bsky.social and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social colleagues illustrates the dilemma nicely "LeastCost" path involved scaling up CCS faster than historical precedents. Avoiding fossil-CDR ("FosFree") means doing same for e-fuels. www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-5...

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Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne @ariadneprojekt.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

#Ariadne-Forscher @gunnarenergyclima.bsky.social vom @pik-potsdam.bsky.social zu den notwendigen #Investitionen für eine erfolgreiche #Energiewende, die Deutschlands #Wettbewerbsfähigkeit sichert. Mehr dazu im neuen #Szenarienreport2025 vom Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne 👉 buff.ly/SSTJHC2

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Christoph Bautz @christophbautz.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

Jetzt erst recht: #StandWithUkraine! Trump wendet sich von der Ukraine ab – wir nicht! Setze mit Tausenden ein Zeichen der Solidarität und Unterstützung. Gemeinsam für Freiheit, Demokratie & ein starkes Europa! 🗓️ Sonntag, 9. März, 17 Uhr 📍 Brandenburger Tor, Berlin

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Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne @ariadneprojekt.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

#Ariadne-Report kalkuliert Pfade zur #Klimaneutralität 2045 in Deutschland: Der Zusatzaufwand der #Transformation lässt sich durch kosteneffizienten #Klimaschutz je nach Szenario auf jahresdurchschnittlich 16 - 26 Mrd. Euro bis 2045 begrenzen, 0,4 - 0,7 Prozent der heutigen #Wirtschaftsleistung.

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PIK_climate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Investitionen für #Klimaneutralität 2045 in 🇩🇪 werden zum Großteil durch Minderausgaben für Gas/Öl/Kohle ausgeglichen. Zusatzaufwand bei kosteneffizienter Politik 0,4-0,7% des aktuellen BIP. @ariadneprojekt.bsky.social Ariadne-Szenarienreport mit Beteiligung PIK. 👇 www.pik-potsdam.de/de/aktuelles...

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Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne @ariadneprojekt.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Viele Monate haben #Ariadne-Forschende aus sechs am @ariadneprojekt.bsky.social beteiligten Instituten an dem neuen #Szenarienreport2025 gearbeitet. Die wichtigsten #Erkenntnisse könnt ihr jetzt auch in knapp drei Minuten auf YouTube ansehen 👇 🎞️ Mehr dazu im vollständigen Report 👉 lnkd.in/ekaXRWuT

youtube.com

Klimaneutralität 2045: Ariadne-Szenarienreport kalkuliert kosteneffiziente Pfade für Deutschland

YouTube video by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK

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Miriam Vollmer @miriamvollmer.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

Wie kommen junge Männer und Frauen eigentlich miteinander klar?

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Greenpeace e.V. @greenpeace.de · 20/02/2025

🤔Was sogar viele Reiche als gerecht empfinden würden, passt nicht zu den Steuerplänen von Friedrich Merz. Er möchte weitere Entlastungen für hohe Einkommen. 👉Hier gehts zum Umfrage: act.gp/4hJc9Fm

act.gp

Befragung deutscher Millionär:innen

Selbst Millionär:innen geben an, dass niedrigere Steuern für Superreiche ungerecht wären. Das zeigt diese Umfrage unter 511 deutschen Millionär:innen im Auftrag von Greenpeace und dem Netzwerk Patriot...

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Jan Böhmermann 🤨 @janboehm.bsky.social · 20/02/2025

Grade noch rechtzeitig vor der Bundestagswahl: das Opinion-Stück für die @nytimes.com über das Erstarken der Rechtsextremen, effektives "truth twisting" und die deutsche Geschichtsvergessenheit. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/20/o...

nytimes.com

Opinion | Germany’s Far-Right Comeback

Germany’s attempts to “remember away” its Nazi past has instead paved the way for an extremist resurgence.

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Ketan Joshi @ketanjoshi.co · 18/02/2025

Nice bit from the IEA on the problem with constantly inflating EV size - mainly, massively higher mineral demand and electricity demand when charging them iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a9e35...

Breakdown of battery electric car sales in selected countries and regions by car size,
2018-2023
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: BEV = battery electric vehicle; SUV = sports utility vehicle. Analysis based on sales-weighted registrations. Small cars
include A and B segments. Medium cars include C and D segments and A segments with SUV body type. Large cars include
E and F segments, multi-purpose vehicles and B segments with SUV body type. SUV category in figure encompasses
segments C to F with SUV body type.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes

Nevertheless, from a policy perspective, it is critical to mitigate the negative
spillovers associated with an increase in larger electric cars in the fleet.
Larger electric car models have a significant impact on battery supply chains and
critical mineral demand. In 2023, the sales-weighted average battery electric SUV
in Europe had a battery almost twice as large as the one in the average small
electric car, with a proportionate impact on critical mineral needs. Of course, the
range of small cars is typically shorter than SUVs and large cars (see later section
on ranges). However, when comparing electric SUVs and medium-sized electric
cars, which in 2023 offered a similar range, the SUV battery was still 25% larger.
This means that if all electric SUVs sold in 2023 had instead been medium-sized
cars, around 60 GWh of battery equivalent could have been avoided globally, with
limited impact on range. Accounting for the different chemistries used in China,
Europe, and the United States, this would be equivalent to almost 6 000 tonnes of
lithium, 30 000 tonnes of nickel, almost 7 000 tonnes of cobalt, and over
8 000 tonnes of manganese.
Larger manganese also require more power, or longer charging times. This can
put pressure on electricity grids and charging infrastructure by increasing
occupancy, which could create issues during peak utilisation, such as at highway
charging points at high traffic times.
In addition, larger vehicles also require greater quantities of materials such as iron
and steel, aluminium and plastics, with a higher environmental and carbon
footprint for materials production, processing and assembly. Because they are
heavier, larger models also have higher electricity consumption. The additional

energy consumption resulting from the increased mass is mitigated by
regenerative braking to some extent, but in 2022, the sales-weighted average
electricity consumption of electric SUVs was 20% higher than that of other electric
cars.
6
Major carmakers have announced launches of smaller and more affordable
electric car models over the past few years. However, when all launch
announcements are considered, far fewer smaller models are expected than
SUVs, large models and pick-up trucks. Only 25% of the 400+ launches expected
over the 2024-2028 period are small and medium models, which represents a
smaller share of available models than in 2023. Even in China, where small and
medium models have been popular, new launches are typically for larger cars.

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Felix Schreyer @fschreyer.bsky.social · 25/01/2025

I think the main strength of detailed ESMs is mostly the spatial / temporal resolution, not necessarily additional technologies in comparison to IAMs. Not sure whether you also look at spatial aspects of biomass which would be quite nice. I still need to fully read your paper. Looks interesting!

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Felix Schreyer @fschreyer.bsky.social · 25/01/2025

Our EU studies: doi.org/10.1016/j.on... doi.org/10.21203/rs.... On global level there is a study by the AIM team: doi.org/10.1016/j.on...

doi.org

Redirecting

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Klar fehlt noch einiges zu #Klimaneutralität oder globalen #1.5C, aber man muss definitiv auch den #Fortschritt sehen, den wir gerade machen.

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Projektionsbericht des #UBA bspw. sagt, dass wir aktuell 2030 die -65% etwa erreichen. Und unsere vorläufige Arbeit in #Ariadne mit Szenarien aus mehreren Modellen (Veröffentlichung bald geplant) weist auch in die Richtung, daß wir dem nahe kommen.

Denn die Politikinstrumente auf EU Ebene (#ETS Reform, Verbrennerverbot etc.) und deutscher Ebene (Erneuerbare Energie Reformen, #Heizungsgesetz ) wurden ja durchaus verschärft über die letzten 2-3 Jahre .

Stimme nicht zu, dass wir das deutsche 2030 Ziel (-65% ggü 1990) klar verfehlen werden. Hier werden einfach die Emissionsreduktionen aus diesem Jahr die nächste Jahre als Trend fortgeschrieben. Tatsächlich können wir aber stärkere Reduktionen erwarten.

Adrian Odenweller @adrianodenweller.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

Reposted by Felix Schreyer

🚨New Paper and Policy Brief🚨 How has green hydrogen developed recently? How much hydrogen is needed for 1.5°C? And what are plausible future pathways? In a new Nature Energy study, we look at these questions. 🔗Article: buff.ly/3WeOh3G 🔗Policy Brief: buff.ly/3C2F6wm #EnergySky

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Felix Schreyer @fschreyer.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

#ard verwechselt leider #Klima und #Wetter. Dass 2024 1.5C über dem vorindustriellen Zeitalter lag, bedeutet nicht, dass das 1.5C Ziel von #Paris überschritten ist. Das Ziel bezieht sich auf ein klimatologisches Mittel (über 30 Jahre). www.tagesschau.de/wissen/klima...

tagesschau.de

2024 war laut DWD deutlich zu warm und zu nass

Auch in diesem Jahr folgte ein Temperatur-Rekord auf den nächsten. Das macht 2024 zum wärmsten Jahr seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen - sowohl in Deutschland als auch weltweit. Experten sind zunehmend al...

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Felix Schreyer @fschreyer.bsky.social · 22/10/2024

Die Autoren haben mich darauf hingewiesen, dass Abfall in Deutschland bereits durch das BEHG bepreist wird. Das ist oben nicht richtig. Mein Punkt ist daher, dass Abfall vorausl ab 2028 im EU-ETS ist und dort starke Preiserhöhungen über das hinaus in den nächsten Jahre zu erwarten sind.

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Felix Schreyer @fschreyer.bsky.social · 21/10/2024

Kreislaufwirtschaft bräuchte daher viele Einzelverordnungen und es nicht so klar, wie man diese am besten aufstellt ohne ungewollte Nebenwirkungen. Vor dem Hintergrund finde ich es verständlich, CCS für Müll offenzuhalten. CO2 Preis soll zudem vermeiden, dass CCS angekündigt wird, aber nie kommt.

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Felix Schreyer @fschreyer.bsky.social · 21/10/2024

Zudem ist die Regulierung schwierig, da verschiedene Akteure betroffen sind. Das wird nicht aufgegriffen. Bald kommt ja ein CO2 Preis auf Müllverbrennung. Letztlich habe diese Anlagen aber keinen Einfluss auf die Müllmenge, sondern es ist ein Zusammenspiel aus Konsumentenverhalten und Produktdesign.

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Felix Schreyer @fschreyer.bsky.social · 21/10/2024

Ich finde den Beitrag etwas irreführend. Tatsächlich ist eine 100%ige Recyclingrate ja schwer zu erreichen. Insofern macht es Sinn CCS im Abfallsektor zu entwickeln. Natürlich sollte Kreislaufwirtschaft trotzdem vorangebracht werden.

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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 14/09/2024

In case you don’t believe the same equations describe motion in the atmosphere and the ocean.

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PIK_climate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social · 04/04/2024

Wie können wir erneuerbaren Strom nutzen, um fossile Energieträger nachhaltig & kostengünstig zu ersetzen? Welche Rolle #Elektrifizierung und #Wasserstoff dabei spielen könnten, beschreibt PIK-Forscher @fschreyer.bsky.social ausführlich in einem Blogbeitrag: transforming-economies.de/elektrifizie...

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A big thanks and shoutout to all co-authors, @gunnarenergyclima.bsky.social, @falkoueckerdt.bsky.social, @rpietzcker.bsky.social, Renato Rodrigues, Silvia Madeddu, Marianna Rottoli, Michaja Pehl, Robin Hasse. And as well as to the #ARIADNE project and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social.

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In comparison to existing scenario literature, our scenarios tend to show a larger potential for direct electrification, a more confined deployment range for hydrogen-based energy, as well as a more pronounced role for synthetic liquid fuels as opposed to direct hydrogen use.

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This is the first study to model EU climate neutrality scenarios studying the roles of different sector coupling strategies (electrification, H2, synthetic fuels) at greater sectoral detail (e.g. sub-sectoral level in industry and transport).

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