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Nikolas Gvosdev

@fpriorbis.bsky.social
3.3K followers 296 following 4.1K posts

Someone who follows geopolitical and geo-economic trends and studies how national security decisions get made. All comments are personal opinions and do not reflect any official/institutional views. www.linkedin.com/in/nikolas-gvosdev…

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 21h
Interesting that both China and India have over the last several weeks obtained possible leverage (China trade deal, the Essar steel plant for Iowa) that might deflect possible sanctions pressure on both for their Russian energy purchases. www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
linkedin.com
Indian firm building $15bn Trump-announced steel mill has deep Russia ties | South Shore Consulting
For those who follow Rosneft and its operations around the world, Essar is a familiar name. Rosneft purchased Essar Oil (rebranded as Naraya Oil) and has supplied a good deal of the crude used by Indi...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 21h
Trump administration prepared to deploy state capitalist tools to achieve #geoeconomic ends: Essar steel project in Iowa latest example ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
President Donald Trump announces $15 billion steel mill in Iowa | Nikolas Gvosdev
The Essar Group's commitment to build a new steel plant in Iowa and to source it from Mesabi Metallics mines in Minnesota is a test of whether the U.S. government's geoeconomic tools--the $10 billion ...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 22h
One step to realizing U.S.-Korea Alaska LNG geoeconomic project: lnkd.in/p/gDiA-NXr
lnkd.in
Trump to Tout $54 Billion Korean LNG Plan in Battleground Alaska | Nikolas Gvosdev
Alaska LNG project a way to connect #geoeconomic imperatives (provide new security energy route to South Korea reinforcing security and trade ties with the U.S., provide alternatives to increasingly u...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
So we are discovering that Iran uses Tether USDT stablecoin to route around U.S. restrictions and to be able to benefit from dollar usage without using dollars. Something Derek Pew warned would be happening for @fpri.bsky.social ... www.fpri.org/article/2024...
fpri.org
A Digital Threat to Dollar Dominance - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Yet politicians on both sides of the aisle, as well as much of the national security establishment, do not understand how digital currencies work and are
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
And whether the N+1 strategy (as Parag Khanna outlined for @fpri.bsky.social #OrbisJournal) remains operative is now in question … www.fpri.org/article/2021...
fpri.org
The Biden Administration Faces China and Climate Change - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Access the Spring 2021 Issue of Orbis
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This jumped out at me: the need for "sophisticated pools of risk-bearing venture capital." Sovereign wealth funds, venture-interested family offices, etc. fit the bill. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Small and stuck: Why European firms can’t scale
In 2008, the US stock market was worth $3 trillion more than the combined European stock market; in 2023, the gap was $34 trillion. This column argues that the valuation gap is not driven by differenc...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
From my @fpri.bsky.social colleague Hong Tae-hwa: “Deterrence by uncertainty works when capability and preparation are certain and intent alone is veiled.” www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/09...
japantimes.co.jp
Can South Korea stay out of war over Taiwan?
While Seoul has traditionally played things safe on the issue, that discretion is becoming harder to sustain.
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
So the line is managed competition, not decoupling … asiatimes.com/2026/09/trum...
asiatimes.com
Trump-Xi summit bade farewell to 'China plus one' - Asia Times
President Donald Trump rolled out the red carpet for Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington, greeting him in person at Joint Base
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
lnkd.in/p/geUSthgA
lnkd.in
#vostok | Nikolas Gvosdev
Not shown are the land routes that are taking on more, as well as the seasonal Arctic routes, especially with the #Vostok project now begin to ship to Asian customers ...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
How the trade #roundabout U.S. tariffs and sanctions works … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
#roundabout | Nikolas Gvosdev
Show the importance and durability of the various trade #roundabout schemes to get around tariffs, sanctions and other barriers ...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Analysis below suggests dynamics of Chinese energy consumption and U.S. need to lower consumer costs means that new U.S. sanctions won't be imposed on China for its Russian energy purchases ... www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
linkedin.com
So, two trends to consider ... 1) Progress on a U.S.-China trade deal that would lower tariffs on a wide variety of consumer goods. Important for the Trump administration due to growing Republican… |...
So, two trends to consider ... 1) Progress on a U.S.-China trade deal that would lower tariffs on a wide variety of consumer goods. Important for the Trump administration due to growing Republican co...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
What is striking is that U.S. moving towards a #3C paradigm for U.S.-China relations (cooperate, compete, confront) that #MayflowerGroup advised for U.S.-Russia relations in the 2010s ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
#mayflower_group #3c | Nikolas Gvosdev
It is striking, reading Vladimir Norov's summary of the U.S.-China summit, how much both sides seem to echo what the #Mayflower_Group (formally, the dialogue for a “Sustainable Bipartisan U.S. Strateg...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Trump administration's announcement that it will program all Ukraine aid funds will reinforce Kremlin view. Something I've observed in U.S.-Russia relations past 25 years is that the Kremlin never accepts the notion that the U.S. chief executive is obligated by Congressional statute to do things.
wtvbam.com
Exclusive-Trump administration to meet Ukraine assistance deadline
By Patricia Zengerle and Mike Stone WASHINGTON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The Trump administration has made legally binding commitments to spend almost all of the $400 million Congress approved for military...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
More from James Davis on why ... www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
linkedin.com
James Davis, for this week's Asia Times Global Risk-Reward Monitor, on the hardening attitudes in the Kremlin and the growing realization that Trump "can't deliver." "Trump ha...
James Davis, for this week's Asia Times Global Risk-Reward Monitor, on the hardening attitudes in the Kremlin and the growing realization that Trump "can't deliver." "Trump has shown little willingn...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Scott Foster discusses that, despite the energy crunch, the Takaichi government shows no signs of diminishing its support for Ukraine. Takaichi has buried former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's approach of seeking rapprochement with Russia. asiatimes.com/2026/09/merz...
asiatimes.com
Merz clings on as Germany’s political center crumbles - Asia Times
Subscribe now with a one-month trial for only $1, then enjoy the first year at an exclusive rate of just $99.German state polls yield historic defeat,
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Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev
Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Check out what FPRI worked on this week!
buff.ly
Weekly Insights | September 25, 2026
Russia and Ukraine’s war of endurance, Latvia’s upcoming elections, and more
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Some thoughts on this development, based on @ralexdc.bsky.social reporting: www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I think Ukrainians have a right to ask how France can so rapidly deploy to Saudi Arabia and take on those risks ...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is where the #trilemma intersects with the #prosperity_legitimacy_equation … x.com/sstapczynski...
x.com
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Don’t see any signals Moscow is interested in pursuing this track (grain corridor, energy ceasefire, bilateral Ukr-Rus meeting) … or what U.S. can offer the Kremlin. www.axios.com/2026/09/24/z...
axios.com
Zelensky: U.S. pushing energy ceasefire, trilateral talks with Russia
The Ukrainian president remains skeptical Russia will takes steps to de-escalate.
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Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev
Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The nuclear context of international affairs is “thickening.” China's nuclear breakout is the most prominent example of this "thicker" context, but India, North Korea, Pakistan, the United Kingdom, and France are also contributing.
buff.ly
An AI-Driven Second Nuclear Age
Explore the impact of AI on global security and warfare in this new age of technological threats and challenges.
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Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev
Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
In an era marked by the end of traditional arms control, emerging technologies, and evolving geopolitical rivalries, one question looms large: What does nuclear stability look like in the second nuclear century? buff.ly/Tsg8MRu
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
And allows for a chance to revisit this podcast! "How global conflict with Iran could affect Rhode Island’s economy" btown.buzzsprout.com/163601/episo...
btown.buzzsprout.com
The Impact of Iran War on Rhode Island - Bartholomewtown
Nikolas Gvosdev, a national security fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and professor at the U.S. Naval War College, and speaking on his own behalf, joins Bill Bartholomew to examine how ...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Connecting Leadership RI's Defense Day with @billbartholomew.bsky.social @997wpro.bsky.social conversations about affordability with REGENT and @universityofri.bsky.social ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
#doorstep #affordability #4ir | Nikolas Gvosdev
I always enjoy taking part in Leadership Rhode Island's Defense Day, and to be able to help connect global trends in international security with developments at our #doorstep here in Rhode Island. It ...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This is the critical observation that connects the economics to geopolitics: "Commodity supply is currently heavily concentrated, with a large share of supply in geopolitical or trade-dispute hot spots." www.gspublishing.com/content/rese...
gspublishing.com
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Listening to @billbartholomew.bsky.social on @997wpro.bsky.social and a key point where housing concerns intersect with national security. RI's efforts to become a center for maritime tech won't go anywhere if there's a housing shortage and related infrastructure issues.
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
So @diegofassnacht.bsky.social called it … Chancellor Merz says he needs to stay to see through key reforms …
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Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev
Khashoggi's Ghost @urocklive1.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
"Most of the president’s inner circle was either deeply skeptical or outright opposed to joining the Saudi fight against the Houthis, especially given the existing strains facing the U.S. military in the war with Iran, according to a senior administration official."
20221111
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Duma election results suggest Putin’s team looking to solidify a group of loyalist veterans but also keep open a business/technocrat pipeline open … www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
linkedin.com
After Putin | South Shore Consulting
As we monitor Duma election results in Russia it does seem that the dual recruitment strategy James Davis has been tracking will produce some results: a cadre of loyalist veterans especially in United...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
With this result, will be interesting to see if what @diegofassnacht.bsky.social anticipated would happen will manifest … www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
linkedin.com
Keep an eye on what happens Sunday in Germany--according to Diego Faßnacht, CFA 🇵🇦 writing in Asia Times. Depending on how elections go in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, embattled… | South...
Keep an eye on what happens Sunday in Germany--according to Diego Faßnacht, CFA 🇵🇦 writing in Asia Times. Depending on how elections go in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, embattled chancell...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
An overview of key points from that talk … lnkd.in/p/g3gzDimT
lnkd.in
Opinion | The Iran war has disrupted oil markets. The fallout goes beyond that. | Nikolas Gvosdev
So some highlights of the Waverly Heights talk: —characterized the time we are living in as the birthpangs of the #technostrategic era; —our national security system remains geared to reacting to cr...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
lnkd.in/p/gPxpm26X
lnkd.in
Merz faces a leadership challenge without a challenger - Asia Times | Nikolas Gvosdev
Not seeing any sort of signing statement or other remarks from President Trump after signing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into law indicating any thoughts on what he i...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Can’t help but be reminded of Mario Puzzo’s description of the Five Families summit being held in the conference room of a bank, with Tom Hagen commenting on the calming effect of money during contentious negotiations. #Godfather x.com/asialens/sta...
x.com
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
lnkd.in/p/gbf5vZVN
lnkd.in
#eurasia | Vladimir Norov
Central Asia is shifting from separate projects to an integrated Eurasian network linking China, Central Asia, the Caspian, the Caucasus, Europe and South Asia The EDB estimates 114 projects in Centr...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
lnkd.in/p/g-4e-Xz4
lnkd.in
FOUR SIMULTANEOUSLY DISRUPTED SUPPLY ROUTES ARE TURNING EUROPE’S ENERGY CRISIS INTO AN INFLATIONARY ONE On September 18, Saudi Arabia warned European refineries not to expect oil shipments in… | Nigh...
FOUR SIMULTANEOUSLY DISRUPTED SUPPLY ROUTES ARE TURNING EUROPE’S ENERGY CRISIS INTO AN INFLATIONARY ONE On September 18, Saudi Arabia warned European refineries not to expect oil shipments in October...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
James Davis in this week's Asia Times Global Risk-Reward Monitor argues Putin left the #BRICS summit in New Delhi strengthened ... asiatimes.com/2026/09/merz...
asiatimes.com
Merz faces a leadership challenge without a challenger - Asia Times
Subscribe now with a one-month trial for only $1, then enjoy the first year at an exclusive rate of just $99. Germany’s CDU is entering a leadership
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Discussed this with #WaverlyHeights residents as part of my overview of the national security environment … www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | The Iran war has disrupted oil markets. The fallout goes beyond that.
The war has caused a commodities crisis running several markets deep.
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
This validates a key assumption of the #trilemma and how it feeds into the #prosperity_legitimacy_equation … x.com/sstapczynski...
x.com
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
#competitive_connectivity as the #geopolitics of the 21st century … per Parag Khanna …
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
JPMorgan’s commodities team: “For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view. We simply don’t know how to model the endgame.”
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Context in which any U.S. sanctions might be imposed ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
Also suggests to me that even if the U.S. sanctions legislation passes the President will be less inclined to use because the Middle East now more than ever cannot provided alternatives to supply… | N...
Also suggests to me that even if the U.S. sanctions legislation passes the President will be less inclined to use because the Middle East now more than ever cannot provided alternatives to supply from...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
This was a great discussion with Austin Long not only for the perspective on strategic stability but also for insights as to how practitioners operate and shape policy. orbisjournal.org/podcast/epis...
orbisjournal.org
Episode 9 | Thinking About the Second Nuclear Century
Join us as we discuss the future of nuclear strategy and the impact of technology in the second nuclear century.
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Why I wrote the chapter on the #trilemma as a national security issue for the Oxford Handbook of Human Security, from Robert Friedland. In a crisis, "countries prioritise food security and domestic supply chains over global free trade." x.com/robert_ivanh...
x.com
Robert Friedland (@robert_ivanhoe) on X
Today, Russia announced the ban of sulphuric acid exports. Russia also banned the export of elemental sulphur late last year to protect its agricultural industry, as its domestic production has been...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Posted without comment ... x.com/DPrivatinves...
x.com
Der Privatinvestor (@DPrivatinvestor) on X
JPMorgan hat gerade einen furchterregenden Chart zu den Ölbeständen der Welt veröffentlicht. Die Lagerbestände befinden sich im freien Fall. Und wenn diese Linie 6,8 — erreicht, fällt die Weltwirtscha...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
A reminder: this contributes to Europe's #deindustrialization and makes it harder for European economies to support taking a greater share of the overall defense burden. x.com/dlacalle_IA/...
x.com
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
World’s luck in avoiding economic crisis may have run out … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
#deindustrialization #deenergization | Nikolas Gvosdev
The world's luck may be running out ... enough interdiction of physical commodities, and the digital world cannot substitute (or even function). --After four years where both Ukraine and Russia restr...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
And one thing Davis reported was debate within Kremlin about removing Western visitors' sense of immunity ... which @ravireports.bsky.social @foreignpolicy.com says was shaken by the attack: foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/14/r...
foreignpolicy.com
Why My Kyiv Visit Worried Me So Much
FP’s editor in chief on the mood in Ukraine—and what it means for the future of war.
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Some thoughts from @reziemba.bsky.social on the Venezuela oil deal … www.linkedin.com/posts/rachel...
linkedin.com
Energy Advisor | Rachel Ziemba
I shared some thoughts with Inter-American Dialogue's Energy Advisor about the USG's recent equity stake in Venezuela's energy sector - and the other parallel investments. My comments focus on the rol...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Global System Rupture … www.linkedin.com/posts/velina...
linkedin.com
Global System Rupture is the definition of a tipping point for the global system when its absorption capacity can’t cope with the multiplicative cascade emerging from the various compound shocks to… |...
Global System Rupture is the definition of a tipping point for the global system when its absorption capacity can’t cope with the multiplicative cascade emerging from the various compound shocks to th...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Strike on Yagodyn should have been no surprise given Kremlin signals for the past several weeks ... lnkd.in/p/giJq3Mz5
lnkd.in
For several weeks, James Davis has been reporting in Asia Times about growing calls within the Kremlin to take steps to remove the sense of immunity many high-level Western visitors to Ukraine feel… |...
For several weeks, James Davis has been reporting in Asia Times about growing calls within the Kremlin to take steps to remove the sense of immunity many high-level Western visitors to Ukraine feel th...
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