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Nikolas Gvosdev

@fpriorbis.bsky.social
3.3K followers 296 following 4.1K posts

Someone who follows geopolitical and geo-economic trends and studies how national security decisions get made. All comments are personal opinions and do not reflect any official/institutional views. www.linkedin.com/in/nikolas-gvosdev…

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 5h
Lessons for other middle powers here; also for Eurasian states, lesson in how Aliyev negotiated this with Moscow in terms of guaranteeing continued engagement with Russia on Bakus terms, not on the West's. theliberum.com/the-ilham-al...
theliberum.com
The Aliyev doctrine: How Azerbaijan defines its place in the world | The Liberum
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev addressed the 8th Congress of the New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) in Baku on Friday, the first party congress convened since
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 5h
South Shore Consulting note: This is going to put additional pressure on the U.S. not to impose third party sanctions on Russia especially against the #roundabout countries which purchase, refine and resell Russian oil. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Oil Inventories in the West Have Been Exhausted, Vitol CEO Says
Oil inventories in western countries have been exhausted as a result of the Iran war, the boss of the world’s largest independent oil trader said, warning that fuel markets are likely to remain tight ...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 5h
At Delphi Global Research Center Darrell Driver notes the criticality of revising Mackinder's geopolitical theories because of a key climactic/environmental shift: the opening of the frozen Arctic which is no longer a barrier but now a passageway. delphigrc.org/research/fro...
delphigrc.org
From Mackinder to Murmansk: The Arctic and the New Geography of Deterrence
The melting Arctic is fundamentally reshaping global geopolitics, transforming what was once a frozen barrier protecting the Eurasian Heartland into a new arena of strategic competition between Russia
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Derek Reveron and I discussed the #transoceanic concept for @fpri.bsky.social … www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
realcleardefense.com
Geography, Bureaucracy, and National Secuirty: The New Map
Bottom Line Translating broad strategic guidance into workable strategies and sustainable policies requires both an assessment of the international security environment as well as an analysis of wha
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
#BridgingtheGap is something that all of us who teach in professional national security programs must always be thinking about ... latest episode of #ShiftingGround featuring @tcwittes.bsky.social speaking with Larry Rubin & @rachelwhitlark.bsky.social. #OrbisJournal orbisjournal.org/podcast/epis...
orbisjournal.org
Episode 10 | Translating Scholarship Into Statecraft
Explore insights on democracy with Dr. Tamara Cofman Wittes as she discusses global challenges and resilience in democratic systems.
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Indian #transoceanic region unites a part of the world U.S. strategic maps separate … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
#transoceanic | Nikolas Gvosdev
The Indian #transoceanic region ties together areas of the world the State and Pentagon maps divide and separate …
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Important lessons here for Central Asia as well ... www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion-feat...
businesstimes.com.sg
The middle power moment arrives in South-east Asia – but not for Asean
But it is to the region’s advantage that it is not a unified supranational power like the EU Read more at The Business Times.
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
lnkd.in/p/g6tEvYfY
lnkd.in
🖊️ Interested in being published in Orbis? We are currently accepting submissions for both academic research and commentaries for 2027 issues. Please review the full submission guidelines here:… |...
🖊️ Interested in being published in Orbis? We are currently accepting submissions for both academic research and commentaries for 2027 issues. Please review the full submission guidelines here: ht...
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Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev
Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
In Episode 10 of #ShiftingGround, Larry Rubin and Rachel Whitlark sit down with guest Dr. Tamara Cofman Wittes. Wittes offers unique insights on bridging the gap between scholarship and practice, navigating Middle East policy, and the ongoing struggles facing global democracy.
buff.ly
Episode 10 | Translating Scholarship Into Statecraft
Explore insights on democracy with Dr. Tamara Cofman Wittes as she discusses global challenges and resilience in democratic systems.
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
"Boot Camp for the Mind"--the role of professional military education in developing national security strategists ... digitalcommons.ndu.edu/cgi/viewcont...
digitalcommons.ndu.edu
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Wonder if this "loss of immunity" James Davis refers to in Asia Times is something Kremlin communicated and that @theguardian.com picked up in its report that countries are considering moving embassies from Kyiv? www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
linkedin.com
In this week's Asia Times Global Risk-Reward Monitor, James Davis on Russia's expectation of a prolonged rupture with Europe ... new steps taken to place European corporate assets in Russia un...
In this week's Asia Times Global Risk-Reward Monitor, James Davis on Russia's expectation of a prolonged rupture with Europe ... new steps taken to place European corporate assets in Russia under Krem...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Does #FORTRESS America tie all of these efforts together? Massive infrastructure / resiliency efforts will need all sorts of materials and orders require non-China/non-foreign supply chains ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
#fortress #net_assessment #geoeconomic | Nikolas Gvosdev
Some further thoughts on #FORTRESS America ... First, it seems to draw on themes I've seen reflected in papers and presentations from students at the U.S. Naval War College dealing with resiliency, e...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Comments included from my colleague at @fpri.bsky.social Mohammed Salih , on a public/private gap in assessments from the Iraqi government about the U.S. withdrawal ... www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/...
aljazeera.com
Iraq begins high-stakes security balancing act as US troops withdraw
Iraq marks national 'Sovereignty Days' as US troops depart, but must navigate risks of new security landscape.
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Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev
Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Dominic Tierney observes that although Canada calls for middle-power cooperation and expresses a clear desire to reduce its dependence on the US, the UK values its partnership with Washington and collaborates with it even when their positions diverge. buff.ly/CSvGaez
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Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev
Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Ukraine’s greatest economic challenge is the blockade of the port of Odessa. Russian attacks have cut maritime traffic by 90 percent, preventing the export of major foreign currency earners and risking the loss of 10 percent of Ukraine’s GDP. buff.ly/LFRXta2
buff.ly
The War of Endurance: Russia, Ukraine, and the Struggle Behind the Front Lines - Foreign Policy Research Institute
The Russo-Ukrainian War, if dated to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, is the longest running conflict in Europe since the French Revolutionary and
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Interesting that both China and India have over the last several weeks obtained possible leverage (China trade deal, the Essar steel plant for Iowa) that might deflect possible sanctions pressure on both for their Russian energy purchases. www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
linkedin.com
Indian firm building $15bn Trump-announced steel mill has deep Russia ties | South Shore Consulting
For those who follow Rosneft and its operations around the world, Essar is a familiar name. Rosneft purchased Essar Oil (rebranded as Naraya Oil) and has supplied a good deal of the crude used by Indi...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Trump administration prepared to deploy state capitalist tools to achieve #geoeconomic ends: Essar steel project in Iowa latest example ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
President Donald Trump announces $15 billion steel mill in Iowa | Nikolas Gvosdev
The Essar Group's commitment to build a new steel plant in Iowa and to source it from Mesabi Metallics mines in Minnesota is a test of whether the U.S. government's geoeconomic tools--the $10 billion ...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
One step to realizing U.S.-Korea Alaska LNG geoeconomic project: lnkd.in/p/gDiA-NXr
lnkd.in
Trump to Tout $54 Billion Korean LNG Plan in Battleground Alaska | Nikolas Gvosdev
Alaska LNG project a way to connect #geoeconomic imperatives (provide new security energy route to South Korea reinforcing security and trade ties with the U.S., provide alternatives to increasingly u...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
So we are discovering that Iran uses Tether USDT stablecoin to route around U.S. restrictions and to be able to benefit from dollar usage without using dollars. Something Derek Pew warned would be happening for @fpri.bsky.social ... www.fpri.org/article/2024...
fpri.org
A Digital Threat to Dollar Dominance - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Yet politicians on both sides of the aisle, as well as much of the national security establishment, do not understand how digital currencies work and are
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
And whether the N+1 strategy (as Parag Khanna outlined for @fpri.bsky.social #OrbisJournal) remains operative is now in question … www.fpri.org/article/2021...
fpri.org
The Biden Administration Faces China and Climate Change - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Access the Spring 2021 Issue of Orbis
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This jumped out at me: the need for "sophisticated pools of risk-bearing venture capital." Sovereign wealth funds, venture-interested family offices, etc. fit the bill. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Small and stuck: Why European firms can’t scale
In 2008, the US stock market was worth $3 trillion more than the combined European stock market; in 2023, the gap was $34 trillion. This column argues that the valuation gap is not driven by differenc...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
From my @fpri.bsky.social colleague Hong Tae-hwa: “Deterrence by uncertainty works when capability and preparation are certain and intent alone is veiled.” www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/09...
japantimes.co.jp
Can South Korea stay out of war over Taiwan?
While Seoul has traditionally played things safe on the issue, that discretion is becoming harder to sustain.
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
So the line is managed competition, not decoupling … asiatimes.com/2026/09/trum...
asiatimes.com
Trump-Xi summit bade farewell to 'China plus one' - Asia Times
President Donald Trump rolled out the red carpet for Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington, greeting him in person at Joint Base
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
lnkd.in/p/geUSthgA
lnkd.in
#vostok | Nikolas Gvosdev
Not shown are the land routes that are taking on more, as well as the seasonal Arctic routes, especially with the #Vostok project now begin to ship to Asian customers ...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
How the trade #roundabout U.S. tariffs and sanctions works … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
#roundabout | Nikolas Gvosdev
Show the importance and durability of the various trade #roundabout schemes to get around tariffs, sanctions and other barriers ...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Analysis below suggests dynamics of Chinese energy consumption and U.S. need to lower consumer costs means that new U.S. sanctions won't be imposed on China for its Russian energy purchases ... www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
linkedin.com
So, two trends to consider ... 1) Progress on a U.S.-China trade deal that would lower tariffs on a wide variety of consumer goods. Important for the Trump administration due to growing Republican… |...
So, two trends to consider ... 1) Progress on a U.S.-China trade deal that would lower tariffs on a wide variety of consumer goods. Important for the Trump administration due to growing Republican co...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
What is striking is that U.S. moving towards a #3C paradigm for U.S.-China relations (cooperate, compete, confront) that #MayflowerGroup advised for U.S.-Russia relations in the 2010s ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
#mayflower_group #3c | Nikolas Gvosdev
It is striking, reading Vladimir Norov's summary of the U.S.-China summit, how much both sides seem to echo what the #Mayflower_Group (formally, the dialogue for a “Sustainable Bipartisan U.S. Strateg...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Trump administration's announcement that it will program all Ukraine aid funds will reinforce Kremlin view. Something I've observed in U.S.-Russia relations past 25 years is that the Kremlin never accepts the notion that the U.S. chief executive is obligated by Congressional statute to do things.
wtvbam.com
Exclusive-Trump administration to meet Ukraine assistance deadline
By Patricia Zengerle and Mike Stone WASHINGTON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The Trump administration has made legally binding commitments to spend almost all of the $400 million Congress approved for military...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
More from James Davis on why ... www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
linkedin.com
James Davis, for this week's Asia Times Global Risk-Reward Monitor, on the hardening attitudes in the Kremlin and the growing realization that Trump "can't deliver." "Trump ha...
James Davis, for this week's Asia Times Global Risk-Reward Monitor, on the hardening attitudes in the Kremlin and the growing realization that Trump "can't deliver." "Trump has shown little willingn...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Scott Foster discusses that, despite the energy crunch, the Takaichi government shows no signs of diminishing its support for Ukraine. Takaichi has buried former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's approach of seeking rapprochement with Russia. asiatimes.com/2026/09/merz...
asiatimes.com
Merz clings on as Germany’s political center crumbles - Asia Times
Subscribe now with a one-month trial for only $1, then enjoy the first year at an exclusive rate of just $99.German state polls yield historic defeat,
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Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev
Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Check out what FPRI worked on this week!
buff.ly
Weekly Insights | September 25, 2026
Russia and Ukraine’s war of endurance, Latvia’s upcoming elections, and more
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Some thoughts on this development, based on @ralexdc.bsky.social reporting: www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I think Ukrainians have a right to ask how France can so rapidly deploy to Saudi Arabia and take on those risks ...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is where the #trilemma intersects with the #prosperity_legitimacy_equation … x.com/sstapczynski...
x.com
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Don’t see any signals Moscow is interested in pursuing this track (grain corridor, energy ceasefire, bilateral Ukr-Rus meeting) … or what U.S. can offer the Kremlin. www.axios.com/2026/09/24/z...
axios.com
Zelensky: U.S. pushing energy ceasefire, trilateral talks with Russia
The Ukrainian president remains skeptical Russia will takes steps to de-escalate.
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Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev
Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The nuclear context of international affairs is “thickening.” China's nuclear breakout is the most prominent example of this "thicker" context, but India, North Korea, Pakistan, the United Kingdom, and France are also contributing.
buff.ly
An AI-Driven Second Nuclear Age
Explore the impact of AI on global security and warfare in this new age of technological threats and challenges.
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Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev
Foreign Policy Research Institute @fpri.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
In an era marked by the end of traditional arms control, emerging technologies, and evolving geopolitical rivalries, one question looms large: What does nuclear stability look like in the second nuclear century? buff.ly/Tsg8MRu
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
And allows for a chance to revisit this podcast! "How global conflict with Iran could affect Rhode Island’s economy" btown.buzzsprout.com/163601/episo...
btown.buzzsprout.com
The Impact of Iran War on Rhode Island - Bartholomewtown
Nikolas Gvosdev, a national security fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and professor at the U.S. Naval War College, and speaking on his own behalf, joins Bill Bartholomew to examine how ...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Connecting Leadership RI's Defense Day with @billbartholomew.bsky.social @997wpro.bsky.social conversations about affordability with REGENT and @universityofri.bsky.social ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
linkedin.com
#doorstep #affordability #4ir | Nikolas Gvosdev
I always enjoy taking part in Leadership Rhode Island's Defense Day, and to be able to help connect global trends in international security with developments at our #doorstep here in Rhode Island. It ...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This is the critical observation that connects the economics to geopolitics: "Commodity supply is currently heavily concentrated, with a large share of supply in geopolitical or trade-dispute hot spots." www.gspublishing.com/content/rese...
gspublishing.com
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Listening to @billbartholomew.bsky.social on @997wpro.bsky.social and a key point where housing concerns intersect with national security. RI's efforts to become a center for maritime tech won't go anywhere if there's a housing shortage and related infrastructure issues.
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
So @diegofassnacht.bsky.social called it … Chancellor Merz says he needs to stay to see through key reforms …
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Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev
Khashoggi's Ghost @urocklive1.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
"Most of the president’s inner circle was either deeply skeptical or outright opposed to joining the Saudi fight against the Houthis, especially given the existing strains facing the U.S. military in the war with Iran, according to a senior administration official."
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Duma election results suggest Putin’s team looking to solidify a group of loyalist veterans but also keep open a business/technocrat pipeline open … www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
linkedin.com
After Putin | South Shore Consulting
As we monitor Duma election results in Russia it does seem that the dual recruitment strategy James Davis has been tracking will produce some results: a cadre of loyalist veterans especially in United...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Yes there is a strong belief that somehow everything just falls into place …
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
With this result, will be interesting to see if what @diegofassnacht.bsky.social anticipated would happen will manifest … www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
linkedin.com
Keep an eye on what happens Sunday in Germany--according to Diego Faßnacht, CFA 🇵🇦 writing in Asia Times. Depending on how elections go in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, embattled… | South...
Keep an eye on what happens Sunday in Germany--according to Diego Faßnacht, CFA 🇵🇦 writing in Asia Times. Depending on how elections go in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, embattled chancell...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
An overview of key points from that talk … lnkd.in/p/g3gzDimT
lnkd.in
Opinion | The Iran war has disrupted oil markets. The fallout goes beyond that. | Nikolas Gvosdev
So some highlights of the Waverly Heights talk: —characterized the time we are living in as the birthpangs of the #technostrategic era; —our national security system remains geared to reacting to cr...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
lnkd.in/p/gPxpm26X
lnkd.in
Merz faces a leadership challenge without a challenger - Asia Times | Nikolas Gvosdev
Not seeing any sort of signing statement or other remarks from President Trump after signing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into law indicating any thoughts on what he i...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Can’t help but be reminded of Mario Puzzo’s description of the Five Families summit being held in the conference room of a bank, with Tom Hagen commenting on the calming effect of money during contentious negotiations. #Godfather x.com/asialens/sta...
x.com
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
lnkd.in/p/gbf5vZVN
lnkd.in
#eurasia | Vladimir Norov
Central Asia is shifting from separate projects to an integrated Eurasian network linking China, Central Asia, the Caspian, the Caucasus, Europe and South Asia The EDB estimates 114 projects in Centr...
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