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Rachel Ziemba

@reziemba.bsky.social
3.6K followers 1.3K following 1.5K posts

Geo-economics, EM, Energy/Resources. Obsessed by sanctions, sovereign wealth, debt, supply chains, trade. Ziemba Insights CNAS Horizon Engage NYU 🇨🇦 wine economist (dipWSET). NYC mostly, YVR often rziemba.substack.com

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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
It appears the ‘major’ bank to be sanctioned today related to Iran violations is… VTB a russian bank with branches abroad which is I thought already sanctioned for other reasons. Attempt to kill two birds? Does include branches in china and india ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
ofac.treasury.gov
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
One of many reasons to follow @nickjbrumfield.bsky.social on Yemen and related issues!
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I’ll be on @cnbc Asia Squawk Box at 745am SGT, to talk about BRICS Summit + dynamics btw these countries. I imagine energy and critical minerals will also come up. Separately, now is your chance to be subscriber #1000 for my weaponized economy substack weaponizedeconomy.substack.com
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Additional sanctions on Iran today from UST including an exchange in lebanon and some Iraqi companies. More imp may be shift in licensing approach to one where expectation is that licenses will be denied. This further complicates humanitarian exemptions ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
ofac.treasury.gov
Iran-related and Counter Terrorism Designations; Licensing Policy Update under Operation Economic Outcast; Settlement Agreement between OFAC and an Individual | Office of Foreign Assets Control
An official website of the United States government
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Good stuff on SPR from @arnabdatta.bsky.social with a pitch to use physical and finance tools together to better use it ahead. His kicker to reframe thinking. “oil stored in the SPR is not the asset — the value comes from the ability to release and acquire www.employamerica.org/expanding-en...
employamerica.org
Trade the SPR, Save the SPR
SPR deliveries are back on the menu.
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
What is it with countries signing 100 year agreements? This one with Canada and Ukraine. I get that its a sign of commitment when many have MOUs and deals that may not last a month or are subject to negotiations, but clearly theres a lot of marketing here www.theglobeandmail.com/business/art...
theglobeandmail.com
Canada and Ukraine sign 100-year agreement to work together on defence, energy and trade
Countries announce joint venture to produce uncrewed systems; Canada to provide drones, air defence interceptors, and millions in loan guarantees
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Ill be on bbc shortly (6pm hour eastern) to talk US Venezuela including presumably some of the thoughts in this piece weaponizedeconomy.substack.com/p/the-trump-...
weaponizedeconomy.substack.com
The Trump Administration’s Big Dangerous Bet on Venezuela
Or at least it seems questionable for business and the US and Venezuelan people
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Venezuelan version of the announcement of the deal focuses on amount of capital to be invested (presumably by the private companies) and funds in royalties, as well as the stat US likes on potential reserves. Am presuming they dont expect such revenues to stay in locked accounts…
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Good point from @stevenbodzin.bsky.social those investigations fall by wayside when there is a potential benefit to Us. Something about beating and joining, perhaps?
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Reposted by Rachel Ziemba
Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I'm very excited to announce that on August 26, at 11 am EDT, I will be hosting a Webinar on what's next for USMCA featuring Juan Carlos Baker Pineda, @simonlester.com, and @reziemba.bsky.social. I hope you can join us! quincyinst.org/events/thriv...
quincyinst.org
Thriving, Surviving, Zombifying or Dying: What Future for USMCA?
Experts discuss what lies ahead for the USMCA.
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
As expected new exemption on Russian crude, but its much narrower. It allows more time to buy fuel loaded as of April 17. At least for now does not allow trade of fuel loaded in last month. More an argument of draining existing supplies, but given volumes, this means diminishing marginal returns
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Good news UAE (Abu Dhabi) investing in additional egress capacity for oil to bypass Strait of Hormuz to come into effect sometime in 2027. Part of theme of more investing in new infra and logistics. Pathway optionality for crude (less so products), security still a factor given proximity to Iran
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
And they’re off… a week after GL allowing Venezuela to hire advisers, they set out principles for debt restructuring, and plans to release their macro assumptions and DSA in June. Battle for DSA assumptions begins. Notice who isnt mentioned (IMF) www.businesswire.com/news/home/20...
businesswire.com
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Good to see @NYFedResearch looking into something that has been worrying me since Feb 28- the downstream effects of Hormuz related disruptions including on AI supply chains (which are the biggest imports and investment drivers US right now. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/will...
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
Will Mounting Supply Chain Strains Hamstring the AI Investment Boom? - Liberty Street Economics
The conflict in the Middle East has precipitated a global supply shock—the third in six years following the pandemic in 2020 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The current shock raises the spec...
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
I’m starting the week with the crew at @Bloomberg surveillance to talk about the state of global markets, the impact of energy supply shocks and what might be on the table for the US-China meeting, A little preview below open.substack.com/pub/weaponiz...
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Expanding guest list for China trip, feels like last minute attempt to make next week’s US-China trip have buzz and deliverables… still chips, planes and ag as key focus. Tho will be watching for moves on energy side (china has maintained its energy tariffs) www.semafor.com/newsletter/0...
semafor.com
🟡 Semafor Flagship: Nothing quite like it | Semafor
Donald Trump plans to bring CEOs to Beijing, Marco Rubio meets the pope, and China builds its nuclear arsenal.
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
OFAC issues new GL that allows advisers to begin talking to Venezuela govt re debt restructuring, the first of a long process towards a complex restructuring. Govt revenues still being sheilded from creditors ofac.treasury.gov/media/935566...
ofac.treasury.gov
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Important piece on limits of Russia’s import substitution
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Also looked at US-GCC trade, tho its a little too early to draw meaningful conclusions. US goods exports to GCC down unsurprisingly- no way to deliver much… but imports from the GCC more resilient including aluminum mostly from Bahrain and UAE. Not sustainable given shut-ins ofc
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Lots to unpack in today’s US March trade data, but one, unsurprising data point, is a sharp increase in the cost of fertilizer imports. Big bump in value of US imports, especially from Russia (243m in the month including 147m urea), almost all US imports from Russia
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Reposted by Rachel Ziemba
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Latest episode of #ShiftingGround — @reziemba.bsky.social joins Larry Rubin and me to discuss sanctions and the weaponized economy. orbisjournal.org/podcast/epis...
orbisjournal.org
Episode 4 | The Weaponized Economy
This episode explores how sovereign balance sheets and coercive tools like sanctions have become primary instruments of modern statecraft, fundamentally shifting the landscape of global commerce.
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
New sanctions on iran from usg: Today’s measure targets iranian digital asset exchanges. USG has been stepping up warnings of sanctions and other risks of paying tolls, first an FAQ now a formal warning note. Toll payments have always been sanctionable. ofac.treasury.gov/media/935556...
ofac.treasury.gov
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
UST clarifies that paying a toll to Iran is sanctionable (illegal). Something I wrote about a few weeks ago, in the brief window when buying loaded cargos of Iranian crude was legal ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/1249 open.substack.com/pub/weaponiz...
ofac.treasury.gov
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Some thoughts on my spring meetings discussions and the continued disconnect between physical supplies and traded markets for energy and beyond. The former will weigh on supply chains for a considerable period. open.substack.com/pub/weaponiz...
open.substack.com
Spring Meetings: Mapping the Disconnects
All about the War, or was it AI, so many questions about navigating to the new normal
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Good thread on Bessent’s formal statement at Spring meetings
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Bessent statement at IMFC points to more funding for fossil fuels and nuclear as in past US requests, and removing climate finance mandate. Here’s hoping the “all of the above” also includes renewables. Also advocates for more WB and MDB work in critical minerals. home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov
Secretary Bessent IMFC-DC Statement
This year’s Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank provide an important opportunity to engage on current global economic challenges as well as our work with partners a...
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
New IMF growth scenario downgrades growth for global economy- on assumption of temporary shock from war. Includes upgrades for non-Gulf oil producers including Russia, Nigeria, Canada and US. Also some upgrades for Europe (based on stronger carryover??) www.imf.org/en/publicati...
imf.org
World Economic Outlook, April 2026: Global Economy in the Shadow of War
The latest World Economic Outlook reports slowing global growth and renewed inflationary pressures. Policies need to be agile, carefully manage the trade-offs involved in ramping up defense spending, ...
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
And we finally have an appointee for International at Treasury, the role that coordinates with IMF, MDBs etc among others, a key open role. Choice of Erin Browne from Pimco w other asset mgt experience highlights market and financial market approach? content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UST...
content.govdelivery.com
United States Department of the Treasury Announces Key Nomination
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
USG announcing blockade of Iranian fuel is adding back in a policy tried before the current war - attempted military enforcement of sanctions, a theme of (early) 2026 that I discussed with @Rory_Johnston on his podcast in Feb. much more at stake now clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...
clearcommodity.net
From Economic to Kinetic Statecraft: Enforcing US Oil Sanctions
In this episode of the Oil Ground Up Podcast, guest Rachel Ziemba joins host Rory Johnston to provide an update on the rapidly shifting landscape of U.S. economic statecraft and its impact on Venezuel...
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
No extension of US license on sales of loaded Russian barrels yet… which expires today. Had figured diminishing returns from an extension as many barrels drawn down, and fact that most still volumes still to China. Still markets and some Asian buyers were expecting extension
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Interesting piece from Marc Busch who takes sentiment scores from National trade estimates. They find (likely unsurprisingly) a broad shift to negative sentiment. Tho those signing recent “deals” experience less negativity. Past deals don’t help thehill.com/opinion/inte...
thehill.com
The US sees trade allies more like adversaries
The traditional “free trade agreement premium” has effectively disappeared.
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
US and Iran have different definitions of protocol for strait, reconstruction and sanctions relief, and then there’s israel too. Pullling back from more agression and escalation that risks more permanent damage good and maybe best we could get but far from stable situation
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Trump appears to have blinked on his timeline and suggests suspending bombing of Iran, with only public ask an full and complete opening of the strait. No word from Iran- would find it hard to believe they allow full opening given leverage, maybe opp to confirm payments?
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Leaked pakistani proposal of two week ceasefire proposes Iran open strait. Who benefits and how much from ST opening? could allow stranded vessels out, and some vessels in, but shapes those that would benefit. Would shut in producers restart, probably not given risk recurrence
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
March was the month that India resumed buying Venezuelan oil (as it has done whenever US allowed). According to early @TankerTrackers data, China also returned to some small purchases in April/ first time since US policies dismantled the discounted oil to teapots channel
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Trump speech didnt tell us much new, included recent talking points and greatest hits on US economy. But…it told us he’s not interested in offramps (yet), isnt prioritizing the strait and has a different definition of no harm coming to regional partners substack.com/@reziemba/no...
substack.com
Rachel Ziemba (@reziemba)
About to pop onto CNBC to chat about Trump’s speech and the war. There was little new in the speech, which recycled Trump’s recent statements on the war and greatest hits on the resilience of the US...
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
I’ll be joining @cnbc’s Emily Tan a little after 10am SGT to talk about trump’s speech, the war and macro/market risks and what it means for Asia and the globe. As befits the China Connection, we will likely talk Chinese perspective and response including on diplomacy
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Support packages from GCC governments are starting to come in. Following CB liquidity support from several countries, Dubai rolls out a package which is mostly revenue/tax deferrals for affected sectors. not new demand Could offset a little but holding fire www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/202...
thenationalnews.com
Sheikh Hamdan announces Dh1 billion support package for Dubai’s business sector | The National
Initiative set to be introduced from April 1
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
The @EBRD is first IFI to come out with a meaningful econ update trying to map impact of the war and risk scenarios. This is a hard time to forecast ofc but key time to map exposures and scenarios. www.ebrd.com/home/news-an...
ebrd.com
Potential economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Scott Bessent at odd long Trump presser: Starting to see more movement out of the gulf region, and we expect to see more. Is he taking credit for new Iran managed maritime pathways? Or at least their semblance?
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
I will be joining @joumanna.bsky.social on Bloomberg Horizons Middle East and Africa shortly to talk about energy markets and other supply shocks beyond in the context of the war threats.
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Good piece from @ACGeoEcon on the importance of swift nimble forecasting to assess new macro scenarios and vulnerabilities stemming from the war and supply chain and financial stresses. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog...
atlanticcouncil.org
In the Iran crisis, the IMF’s voice is urgently needed
The IMF has been slow to assess the economic fallout of the Iran crisis and Strait of Hormuz blockade. Here's why it must shift to real-time, scenario-driven surveillance.
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Highlights the sort of contingency planning for airlines. Planning on higher for longer
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
US license on selling Iranian oil at sea is out- UST seems to be hoping volumes are great enough to bring price down and that other sanctions + export controls stop Iran from actually accessing funds (optimistic)All but cuba, dprk +crimea can participate ofac.treasury.gov/media/935376...
ofac.treasury.gov
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
I have been wondering what/when USG via OFAC might try to redirect Iranian oil barrels away from Chinese teapots and chinese SPR. The challenge is I cant imagine USG is as comfy with revenues going to Iran’s govt as with Russia. Every volume helps sure but not sure how this fits
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Ofac extended the GLs governing sale of Venezuelan oil to allow sale of fertilizer precursors. All other terms same, money owed to PDVSA goes in restricted account, US adversaries not allowed to benefit, but clearly about trying to incent fertilizer ofac.treasury.gov/media/935196...
ofac.treasury.gov
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
USG unsurprisingly issuing another Exemption to allow sales of Russian oil. This one allows any buyers not just India but only those loaded as of today. Markets will assume that they will continue with such measures as long as Hormuz shut despite the limit ofac.treasury.gov/media/935191...
ofac.treasury.gov
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
A few thoughts on state of the oil markets, why benchmarks are not pricing risk being felt in parts of world and other downstream effects open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...
open.substack.com
Why Are Oil Benchmark Prices so Subdued?
And a few things to watch/read on the continuing conflict.
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Reposted by Rachel Ziemba
Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
I hope you can join us for an amazing Webinar on Thursday March 19 at 11 am EST on spillovers from the Iran war into the Global South featuring @reziemba.bsky.social, Greg Priddy, and me, moderated by @globalsarang.bsky.social. Registration and other details here. quincyinst.org/events/how-b...
quincyinst.org
How Badly Could the War Against Iran Hurt the Global South?
The implications of the Iran War for the Global South.
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Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Permanent sanctions exemption on Rosneft Germany shouldnt be seen as sign of broad sanctions relief. The entity is basically managed by Germany and doesnt use Russian oil, a reflection of implicit nationalization. That said other non-enforcement possible ofac.treasury.gov/media/935096...
ofac.treasury.gov
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