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Florian Krampe

@floriankrampe.bsky.social
4K followers 329 following 118 posts

Director Climate Change & Risk Programme @SIPRI.org | #ClimateSecurity, conflict, peacebuilding, & security | PhD Uppsala Peace | 🇸🇪🇩🇪 | Geriatric Millennial. FlorianKrampe.org

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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
More on the human security side of this argument in my TEDx talk: www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3Tp...
youtube.com
How can climate change help us build a more peaceful world? | Florian Krampe | TEDxMidAtlantic
YouTube video by TEDx Talks
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The evening before, I watched Waiting for Godot at the Berliner Ensemble. "All mankind is us, whether we like it or not," says Vladimir. The question is who owns this in each government, and what frame they need to act on it.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
We do not have to choose between human security and defence, because what defence protects, in the end, is human security. The human security risks of today become hard security risks of tomorrow, but there are no hard security solutions.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
In a hard-security moment it is also tempting to fall back on old narratives, above all climate as a threat multiplier. I think that label gets the problem wrong: it treats climate as one more threat to deter, and it feeds the securitisation fears of many states.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The field now reaches into defence, geopolitics, transition and energy, and that is right. But if everything is climate security, who owns it? Foreign affairs, domestic security or defence? Who has the mandate? Who holds the budgets?
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Climate security has grown much wider over the past years. But is it losing its core? That was my strongest impression from the Berlin Climate and Security Conference this week. #ClimateSecurity
A panel on stage at the Berlin Climate and Security Conference, October 2026, with the audience seated in the foreground.The Berliner Ensemble theatre in Berlin at dusk, with its illuminated rooftop sign.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The question is how to build water and heat into decisions about where AI gets built. Mely Caballero-Anthony and I wrote in @asia.nikkei.com about what this El Niño means for ASEAN: asia.nikkei.com/opinion/a-su...
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Malaysia does about an eighth of the world's chip assembly and testing. Johor, its data-centre hub, had already told water-cooled data centres to wait for water until mid-2027, and that was before this El Niño.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
AI is the most physical technology we have built. Chip plants and data centres need water, power and stable temperatures, and in Asia this winter they face what NOAA expects to be a very strong El Niño.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The usual question is what AI does to the planet. The bigger question is what the planet does to AI. That was my argument at the Asia New Vision Forum in Singapore this week, hosted by @caixinglobal.bsky.social and DLD.
Florian Krampe speaking on the AI panel at the Asia New Vision Forum in Singapore, seated between two other speakers, with Caixin, DLD and ANVF Innovation 2026 logos on the screen behind.Florian Krampe speaking into a microphone on the AI panel at the ANVF Innovation 2026 forum in Singapore, seated in a white armchair in front of an orange and pink screen.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The case against the drought-to-war story, in eleven minutes: www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3Tp...
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
This week Trump said he had told his administration: "let's not send out the diesel". The US is Europe's biggest supplier. Electrify for the climate or because of Washington. Either way, it is how Europe absorbs the next shock before someone else collects on it.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Europe has far more to absorb with. But the mechanism is the same: a cost the state does not absorb becomes a grievance, and someone collects on it. In Europe, the populist right is already collecting.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Syria has been here before. In 2008, in the middle of a drought, the Assad government removed fuel subsidies. Fuel prices rose 342% overnight. The drought did not trigger the war. It compounded a crisis already under way. What it became depended on who absorbed the cost.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Europe will probably not run out of diesel this winter. That is not where the security risk sits. Syria shows why. Diesel up 40% in mid-September, protests in at least five provinces, a subsidised tier within a week.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Climate is not chapter six of the risk report. It is the physical ground every other plan stands on. You cannot take Russia, cyber and a physical world that no longer holds still in turn. Put them all in the middle of the table and design from there. Opening panel, Di Säkerhet & Beredskap.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Opinion — A Super El Nino is here and ASEAN is running out of time. The region has the tools to limit the damage, but funding and coordination fall short By Florian Krampe and Mely Caballero-Anthony asia.nikkei.com/opinion/a-su...
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Stacy VanDeveer @stacydvandeveer.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Check it! Blaming the Weather for the Fire - www.newsecuritybeat.org/2026/07/blam... @conresglobal.bsky.social @geoffdabelko.bsky.social @lswatuk.bsky.social @eswein.bsky.social @floriankrampe.bsky.social
newsecuritybeat.org
Blaming the Weather for the Fire
This article was originally published by African Arguments and has been lightly edited for style. On March 19th, the president undertook a historic two-day trip to London, the first by a Nigerian [......
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Phil @ekeokochaphil.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
My new piece on Africa Arguments: “Blaming the Weather for the Fire.” Tinubu blamed climate & the Sahel for Nigeria’s terrorism. He’s not entirely wrong but it’s a deflection. Climate is the candle. State failure, poverty & neglect light the flame. 🔥 @stacydvandeveer.bsky.social
africanarguments.org
Blaming the weather for the fire | African Arguments
Nigeria’s terrorism crisis has deeper roots than Tinubu admitted in London On March 19th, the president undertook a historic two-day trip to London, the first by a Nigerian leader in nearly 40 years. ...
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
The UN paid a water bill. It didnt make the conflict go away. youtu.be/l3TptlUu5BI?...
youtu.be
How can climate change help us build a more peaceful world? | Florian Krampe | TEDxMidAtlantic
YouTube video by TEDx Talks
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
How can climate change help us build a more peaceful world? youtu.be/l3TptlUu5BI?...
youtu.be
How can climate change help us build a more peaceful world? | Florian Krampe | TEDxMidAtlantic
YouTube video by TEDx Talks
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Ashok Swain @ashoswai.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Climate change is not destined to fuel conflict, it can also become a powerful pathway to peace. This TEDx talk by @floriankrampe.bsky.social challenges conventional narratives & shows how climate action, cooperation & resilience can help build a more peaceful world. www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3Tp...
youtube.com
How can climate change help us build a more peaceful world? | Florian Krampe | TEDxMidAtlantic
YouTube video by TEDx Talks
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Corporate boards are miscalculating global risk, and it is costing them. ⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
linkedin.com
#afghanistan #climateadaptation #climatesecurity | Florian Krampe
Corporate boards are miscalculating global risk, and it is costing them. When executives look at a climate-stressed region or a conflict zone, the prevailing wisdom is to label it a "no-go" area and ...
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
I have spent the last 17 years studying environmental and climate security. But the most revealing trend I've seen this month didn't come from a geopolitical summit. It came from tech start-ups. ⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
linkedin.com
I have spent the last 17 years studying environmental and climate security. But the most revealing trend I've seen this month didn't come from a geopolitical summit. It came from tech… | Flori...
I have spent the last 17 years studying environmental and climate security. But the most revealing trend I've seen this month didn't come from a geopolitical summit. It came from tech start-ups. Looki...
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
I grew up in Duisburg in the 1980s. The skies were often gray. The blast furnaces didn’t just define our economy; they were the geopolitical gravity of the region. ⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
linkedin.com
I grew up in Duisburg in the 1980s. The skies were often gray. The blast furnaces didn’t just define our economy; they were the geopolitical gravity of the region. Steel was king. Today, it remains… ...
I grew up in Duisburg in the 1980s. The skies were often gray. The blast furnaces didn’t just define our economy; they were the geopolitical gravity of the region. Steel was king. Today, it remains r...
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
The current LNG crunch stresses another criticial indirect impact of the Iran war: the war in the Gulf just dismantled years of climate progress in East Asia through the panic-driven return to coal. ⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
linkedin.com
In my recent TRT World interview with Reagan Des Vignes, we discussed how conflict creates a massive "indirect emission surge." I focused mostly on disrupted logistics and longer flight path...
In my recent TRT World interview with Reagan Des Vignes, we discussed how conflict creates a massive "indirect emission surge." I focused mostly on disrupted logistics and longer flight paths. The cu...
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
When we report on war, we focus on troop movements and humanitarian corridors. In my recent interview with TRT World's Reagan des Vignes, we discussed why the environmental footprint of conflict is so difficult to erase. 📺⏩ youtu.be/IDyo1PMGK_4?...
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Smart green money must move to conflict zones. New FDI tactics can lay the groundwork for stability and sustainable growth in today’s no-go areas argue Katongo Seyuba and I. ⏩ fdiintelligence.com/content/7a6b... #ClimateSecurity
fdiintelligence.com
Smart green money must move to conflict zones
New FDI tactics can lay the groundwork for stability and sustainable growth in today’s no-go areas
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
The #MSC2026 report "Under Destruction" offers a powerful analysis of our fracturing geopolitical order. My latest in @financialtimes.com complements this by looking at the physical order: ft.com/content/b44f... @munsecconf.bsky.social #ClimateSecurity #Arctic @sipri.org
ft.com
The changing physics of the Arctic are the real defence threat
Critical operational zones are becoming more unpredictable
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SIPRI.bsky.social @sipri.org · 11/02/2026
SIPRI Director of Studies @floriankrampe.bsky.social discusses the changing physics of the Arctic in this opinion piece for the @financialtimes.com, and explains why environmental realities must be taken into account. Full article ➡️ bit.ly/4kqOLhM #Arctic #ClimateSecurity #Geopolitics #SIPRI
bit.ly
The changing physics of the Arctic are the real defence threat
Critical operational zones are becoming more unpredictable
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Thank you for sharing Karsten!
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Karsten Lemm @lemmk.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
The real #Greenland problem? Leaders ignore “the water rising around their ankles”, SIPRI’s @floriankrampe.bsky.social argues “Countries are systematically underinvesting in protection against environmental forces that degrade the capabilities of their defence assets…” www.ft.com/content/b44f...
ft.com
The changing physics of the Arctic are the real defence threat
Critical operational zones are becoming more unpredictable
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SIPRI.bsky.social @sipri.org · 09/02/2026
How can investing in the green transition build lasting resilience? SIPRI's @floriankrampe.bsky.social and Aurore Belfrage break it down in their latest external article for @di.se. Read it now: www.di.se/debatt/inves...
di.se
Investeringar i klimat och försvar ger riktig resiliens
DEBATT: Parallellt med försvarsupprustningen behöver vi accelerera investeringarna i den gröna omställningen för att skapa resiliens, förutsättningar för…
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
📰Link to the full text ⏩ www.di.se/debatt/inves...
di.se
Investeringar i klimat och försvar ger riktig resiliens
DEBATT: Parallellt med försvarsupprustningen behöver vi accelerera investeringarna i den gröna omställningen för att skapa resiliens, förutsättningar för…
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
We are treating "Green vs. Military" as a budget war. It should be an innovation race. 🇸🇪 Sweden’s defense budget is up 34%. If we don't invest in dual-use tech, we are funding obsolescence. The Nordics can own this export market. My op-ed w/ @aurorebelfrage.bsky.social in @di.se.
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SIPRI.bsky.social @sipri.org · 27/01/2026
Last week, SIPRI's @floriankrampe.bsky.social spoke at a panel hosted by Oesterreichische Nationalbank on sustainable security. 📺 Watch the panel discussion: www.youtube.com/watch?v=91ik... #Sustainability #SustainableSecurity #ClimateRisks #Resilience
youtube.com
Sustainable Security? Balancing Risks and Resources in Europe’s Climate and Defense Transition
YouTube video by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB)
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
I spent this week in two very different rooms, discussing the same looming failure. You cannot buy 21st-century security with a 20th-century receipt. If we treat "National Security" and "Ecological Security" as separate line items, we fail at both. #ClimateSecurity
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
EU defense spending is up 16%. But a budget ignoring climate resilience is built on quicksand. Deterrence fails when troops are tied up in disaster relief. Wed at @oenb.at, we debate the operational reality. It isn't about emissions. It's about survival. www.linkedin.com/events/balan...
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
We define projects by the name of the pot where the money comes from, not by the problems they solve. As I discussed with @danbanik.bsky.social this isn't just an administrative headache. It is a systemic failure. youtu.be/Hb6voDIkS1c?...
youtu.be
Climate, conflict and the development squeeze – Florian Krampe
YouTube video by In Pursuit of Development
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
I sat down with @danbanik.bsky.social to discuss why "hard security" is becoming a brittle strategy in the Anthropocene. Full discussion on In Pursuit of Development: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hb6v... #ClimateSecurity #Defense #Peacebuilding @sipri.org
youtube.com
Climate, conflict and the development squeeze – Florian Krampe
YouTube video by In Pursuit of Development
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SIPRI.bsky.social @sipri.org · 15/12/2025
This new partner publication by @giz.de, ISS and SIPRI brings together research and practical experience to offer actionable recommendations for making work on fragility more effective and sustainable➡️ bit.ly/44skwQW #Peace #Development @floriankrampe.bsky.social @dylan-odriscoll.bsky.social
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
We have the capital. We have the technology. What we lack is a social machinery capable of using them. 👉 www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
linkedin.com
#climatesecurity #governance #innovation | Florian Krampe
We have the capital. We have the technology. What we lack is a social machinery capable of using them. Earlier this week, I posted about the bureaucratic nightmare of accessing EU climate funds. It e...
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Europe is focused on the Eastern flank. But can we afford to let "hard security" blind us to #ClimateSecurity risks? If we drain resilience funding to buy tanks, we aren't safer—we’re just vulnerable in a different way. My discussion w Dominic Bowen 👇 open.spotify.com/episode/2ffE...
open.spotify.com
Episode 291: Climate Insecurity, Conflict, and Europe's Expanding Risk Perimeter with Dr Florian Krampe
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
If European industry can’t navigate this bureaucracy, what hope do Fragile States have? New data from the Financial Times on the EU Innovation Fund is damning: ❌ €7.1bn awarded since 2021 ❌ Only 4.7% actually paid out ❌ 3,000 hours and €85k per application www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
linkedin.com
#climatesecurity #euinnovation #governance | Florian Krampe
If European industry can’t navigate this bureaucracy, what hope do Fragile States have? New data from the Financial Times on the EU Innovation Fund is damning: ❌ €7.1bn awarded since 2021 ❌ Only 4.7...
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 29/11/2025
Is your supply chain strategy prepared for the coming governance deficit? Climate stress + weak institutions = commercial volatility. Companies that win will treat resilience as an investment, not a reporting burden. 🎧 open.spotify.com/episode/2ffE... #Geopolitics #BusinessStrategy
open.spotify.com
Episode 291: Climate Insecurity, Conflict, and Europe's Expanding Risk Perimeter with Dr Florian Krampe
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Stacy VanDeveer @stacydvandeveer.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
Can the world quit #coal? #COP30 #energy #ActOnClimate #Brazil #China #India @matpaterson.bsky.social @leahstokes.bsky.social theconversation.com/can-the-worl...
theconversation.com
Can the world quit coal?
Nearly a third of all countries worldwide have pledged to phase out their unabated coal-burning power. But China and India are still adding coal plants – for now.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
The experience was deeply rewarding—not in spite of the difficulty, but because of it. I'm grateful to TEDxMidAtlantic for the opportunity and grateful to myself for continuing to challenge my own comfort. Do hard things! #TEDx #DoHardThings
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
But that simplification is also the mechanism for the platform's power. It forces you to distill your core idea. It’s what makes complex topics accessible to a global audience and provides a stage for new perspectives.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
For researchers, TED talks are a specific kind of hard. We're trained to embrace nuance and complexity. Here, you're forced to cut, simplify, and present over-rehearsed content. That process can feel inauthentic.
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Florian Krampe @floriankrampe.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
In a recent video Casey Neistat distinguishes between mandatory hardships and chosen hardships. This talk was a chosen hardship. The key about a chosen challenge is you can quit at any time, which forces you to confront why you're doing it.
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