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David Firth

@firthstat.bsky.social
794 followers 433 following 71 posts

Research in #statistics, University of Warwick. warwick.ac.uk/dfirth Also @firthstat@fediscience.org (Mastodon) Current main interest is compositional data analysis. Programming in #rstats

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Graham Smyth @grahamsmyth.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The Jean-Mattéo Bahoya deal went through with about six minutes to spare on deadline day. Spoke to the Leeds United winger, club execs and staff members to find out what happened. #lufc www.leedsunited.com/en/news/dead...
leedsunited.com
Deadline day - the inside story of Leeds United's summer transfer window finale - Leeds United
Club journalist Graham Smyth revisits a 'very intense' 1 September with club executives, staff and Jean-Mattéo Bahoya
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Torsten Bell @torstenbell.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
So much of the right these days have a massive patriotism problem. This guy: - is a tax exile (left long before this govt) - hates his own country while complaining he doesn’t get big enough subsidies from it - laments the manufacturing hit from a Brexit he supported www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Billionaire Manchester United owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe says he has lost confidence in UK
Ineos founder Sir Jim Ratcliffe tells the BBC he thinks the country is "on the slide" and calls for more investment in the North Sea.
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Nicolas Hénin @nicolashenin.net · 17/09/2026
Nice campaign by the Norwegian Consumer Council about the declining lifespan of products. Enjoy!
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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
41 Fellows of @royalsociety.org have written to their President to say the increasing capability of AI systems is an ‘emergency’ that the Royal Society should convey to the Government and media www.thetimes.com/article/e859...
thetimes.com
Mathematicians fear AI curbs may come too late to save humanity
Winners of the Fields Medal are among those expressing concern to the Royal Society after the technology solved a problem at the forefront of research
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Chris Grey @chrisgrey.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
It would be quite 'something' if, after all the talk of leaving the EU to create CANZUK, there ends up being CANZEU without the UK
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Hassinator @hassinator.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
a great letter in the times today. perhaps worth sharing in these troubled times. #RNLI #heroes
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Alex von Tunzelmann @alexvont.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
If you feel like donating to the RNLI, here’s a link. I just have. Their minimum donation is £2: I think it might be nice for them to receive a lot of donations this week, even if they’re mostly very modest. Just so they know a lot of people out here appreciate their work. rnli.org/support-us/g...
rnli.org
Donate to the RNLI and help save lives at sea
Your donations really make a difference. We depend on your generosity to educate people to stay safe and prevent tragedies on and offshore. Donate here.
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George Monbiot @georgemonbiot.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
I know this isn't terrorism. You know this isn't terrorism. The authorities know this isn't terrorism. But, once again, they have labelled protesters "terrorists", as part of the long-running programme to ensure that no one dares protest about anything any more. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...
theguardian.com
Seven charged with damaging Trump’s Scottish golf course accused of ‘terrorist connection’
Course at Donald Trump’s Turnberry resort was painted with words ‘Gaza is not 4 sale’ and clubhouse was sprayed with graffiti
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David Firth @firthstat.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Love it. Especially "no it was Firth" 😂
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Robin Ince @robinince.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
So often what are called “culture wars” are one set of people saying “please can we live without perpetual persecution” and another saying “no, f*** you” but the press considering the latter group have “legitimate concerns” and must be perpetually platformed
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
These ratio outcome variables are a plague in the sciences. If your analysis treats 1/2 and 10/20 as the same evidence, then you have discarded uncertainty in the outcome. Model what you measure, not what you construct. Use the denominator as an exposure instead.
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Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
I have signed this petition. If you're a UK resident, I think you should do so too
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Count Binface @countbinface.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Okay Clacton. Let’s go.
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Count Binface @countbinface.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
There now follows a party election broadcast by the Count Binface Party, And if I do say so myself, it's a banger. #VoteBinface #Clacton
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Zach Weinersmith @zachweinersmith.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
There's lots of stuff LLMs can't do, but if you want to disbelieve all the recent math, you have to believe a bunch of Fields Medalists with long track records are just straightforwardly lying about the thing they care most about. Here's a recent blog by Gowers: gowers.wordpress.com/2026/05/08/a...
gowers.wordpress.com
A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro
We are all having to keep revising upwards our assessments of the mathematical capabilities of large language models. I have just made a fairly large revision as a result of ChatGPT 5.5 Pro, to whi…
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Kit Yates @kityates.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
The Tour de France completed it's 113th edition yesterday. By why do cyclist keep making moves they know are destined to fail? Not for nothing is grand tour cycling often referred to as "Chess on Wheels". Check out my latest substack. open.substack.com/pu...
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Royal Statistical Society @royalstatsoc.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
We were deeply saddened to hear of the sudden death of Professor Adrian Bowman, a distinguished statistician, longstanding RSS fellow, and valued contributor to the Society for almost five decades. Adrian's contributions to statistics, teaching, and the RSS will have a lasting impact.
rss.org.uk
Adrian W. Bowman, 1955-2026
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David Firth @firthstat.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
"Impact as pressure, rather than recognition" chimes with my experience. In UK, the REF requirement to document impact makes extra work not properly recognised by colleagues or institution, and not portable. A sane UK academic should avoid having impact. Perverse. blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsoci...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Are high impact researchers less happy? - LSE Impact
Impact agendas are framed as ways of highlighting & rewarding work that reaches beyond academia, but do they come at a cost to researcher happiness & wellbeing?
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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Exactly this. Starmer and Reeves ended the destructive misrule that had characterised the previous 14 years, but they were elected to change politics and the economy rather than stabilise it in a bad place.
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thechaosladder13.bsky.social @thechaosladder13.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
I live in Clacton and have been posting this plea everywhere today.
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Royal Statistical Society @royalstatsoc.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
As heatwaves sweep across Europe, climate change is once again front and centre. But 10 years after the Paris Agreement, what do the numbers say? Both the modest improvements and significant challenges show the importance of stats in understanding climate progress. Read the latest CCTF explainer👇
rss.org.uk
Did the Paris Agreement work? RSS explainer assesses the evidence
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Fluffing or just plain fibbing? Read it and you choose!
kellnerp.substack.com
Kemi Badenoch fluffs her lines on welfare
She relies on dud facts to make her case
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Louis 〓〓 @louishenwood.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Chris Mason should just go on and work for GB News now His hero worship for Nigel Farage is now just an open joke
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Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Zia Yusuf claims Farage is bravely "bringing forward" the judgment of "the ultimate authority": the people of Clacton. Two problems here: 1) He's insisting they judge *before* the full evidence has been heard, not *after*; 2) No constituency can exempt its MP from rules designed to protect us all
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Torsten Bell @torstenbell.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
He literally took undeclared donations from a criminal - never mind “breaking rules” Farage has tried to ignore them entirely for personal gain. And he’s done it over and over again www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Farage denies rules broken after reports benefits from ally were not declared
The Sunday Times says the Reform UK leader failed to register the support supplied by a man who had been convicted of fraud in the US.
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Pierre Alquier @pierrealquier.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
Following the decision of Statistics and Computing to charge (high!) APCs to *all* accepted papers, I decided to resign from the Editorial Board. (Sorry to the let EiC down, he's doing a super job).
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Tom Roberts @tpgroberts.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
The small army of goalkeepers got me
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Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
One of the lessons of the last two years is that Labour urgently needs to stop being afraid of its own shadow. Burnham should appoint whoever he thinks would be the best Chancellor and throw his authority behind them. The Daily Mail will try to kill them anyway. So just govern.
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David Firth @firthstat.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Beckenbauer 😂 m.youtube.com/watch?v=PjV9...
m.youtube.com
Monty Python's World Cup Team of Philosophers
YouTube video by Lonnie Goldman
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Dirk Eddelbuettel @eddelbuettel.com · 21/06/2026
BBC article about Brian Ripley of the #RStats Core team given this week's excellent news concerning 2026 Rousseeuw Price for Statistics recognition for him and the core team. www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
Prof Brian Ripley on developing R to manage the world's data
Prof Brian Ripley has spent the past three decades working on a computer software that analyses data.
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George Monbiot @georgemonbiot.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
It's just one long stream of BS from these fossil fuel-backed clowns. Adopting their policies would destroy a million jobs (see next post) while creating almost none in return. Total environmental and social vandalism. The absolute state of "conservatism". www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Populist and rightwing figures take aim at Ed Miliband and UK net zero policies at ‘anti-woke Davos’
Kemi Badenoch, who joined US anti-abortion activists and European far-right parties at ARC, described energy secretary as a ‘villain’
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Full Fact @fullfact.org · 24/06/2026
The UK Statistics Authority has written to Kemi Badenoch today, following our fact check of her inaccurate claim that the total welfare bill is now higher than income tax receipts “for the first time ever”. We hope she will correct the record soon.
fullfact.org
Statistics watchdog challenges Badenoch over welfare claim after Full Fact intervention – Full Fact
The UK Statistics Authority has called on the Conservatives to “clarify” the inaccurate claim in their Alternative King’s Speech
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Jenny Edwards CBE @jennyedwards.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Grateful to Geoff Marshall for his map showing where London Underground lines are air conditioned. Also most overground services are. Thank you too to the Mayor of London for the investment in upgrading London train services. #tubes #heatwave secretldn.com/air-conditio...
secretldn.com
This handy Tube map details every air-conditioned line across London’s public transport network – here’s how to stay cool while you commute
If you're having to use London's transport network during this heatwave; allow us to point you in the direction of the coolest carriages of all.
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Fionna O’Leary @fascinatorfun.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
It’s the utter shamelessness that is so striking If not those leading Leave then who should have plans? He can’t blame the utter mess of the Brexit HE delivered on anyone else That was HIS plan. A terrible one Helped along by political weakness & knee-jerk voting And we are all paying the price.
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American Statistical Association History of Statistics @hos-asa.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
#OTD 1912 Alan Turing b (d 7 Jun 1954). OBE FRS. Father of AI & pioneering work in theoretical computer science & information theory. His contributions to probability & statistics are almost unknown, as most of these papers were classified until 1980s, & 2 were only declassified in 2012.
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Otto English @ottoenglish.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
It's the 10th anniversary of the dumbest moment in modern British history so let's celebrate some of the idiots who made it happen. First up ... Jacob Rees-Mogg and his promise of cheap food and wine... In fact food prices have increased some 12% as a direct result of Brexit (LSE) 1/5



Brexit will REDUCE food,
wine and clothes costs
by 20% - Rees-Mogg
fires back at Remainers
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Gavin Esler @gavinesler.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Makerfield is - of course - hugely important, and perhaps Nigel Farage may be encouraged to fade away & spend more time with his £5 million "personal security" £££ & other donations - but today's biggest news is this: the real cost of Brexit to all of us. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Brexit cost 6% of UK economy, Bank of England company data suggests
Analysis showed how much the UK could have grown if it had not exited the EU.
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George Eaton @georgeeaton.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Reform have now lost six by-elections in a row in England, Scotland and Wales. Their national poll rating is 26% – below Labour in 1983 – and Farage’s approval rating is -37. They’re very far from the voice of the people and need to stop being treated as such.
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Buttons (Ashley) 🏴‍☠️#OFMDForLife🏴‍☠️ 🏳️‍🌈🤡 @sevensugars.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Since I did do my PhD in cyanobacteria growth and treatment optimization modeling AND work in the water treatment industry, I’m gonna share my theory as to what’s happening here and how to fix it. People are focusing on the painted bottom of the pool increasing residual heat, and while that 1/19
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Royal Statistical Society @royalstatsoc.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
At 6pm this evening, at Broadway House, RSS President Sir John Aston will give this year's President's Address on the theme 'Statistics in Times of Crisis'. Free to attend and followed by a drinks reception. We hope to see many of you there. Full details: rss.org.uk/training-eve...
rss.org.uk
RSS President's Address: Statistics in times of crisis
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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Exactly 10 years ago today, Labour MP Jo Cox was murdered by a far-right man. She was just 41 years old. One of many victims of far-right terrorism. R.I.P. 💔
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James O’Brien @mrjamesob.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
The most disgusting behaviour I’ve ever witnessed in public spaces was directed at Sadiq Khan by ‘anti-Ulez’ protesters, who of course received way more coverage, much of it friendly, than the scheme’s incredible success ever will.
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Peter Geoghegan @petergeoghegan.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Justin Webb now stating as fact that in Northern Ireland - and across the U.K. - for years people ‘have been able to come here and get access to services’ that local people can’t Is there any evidence for this? Why is a presenter on the BBC stating this as fact?
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Russ Jones @russincheshire.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
BREAKING: Indigenous white people commit riot and arson. Incompetent indigenous white police fire water cannon. Indigenous white politicians who fucked up our economy discuss "legitimate concerns" in lying newspapers owned by indigenous white tax evaders. Immigrants somehow remain the problem.
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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
If you are a policy interested researcher we have opened a fantastic call for our Innovation Fellowships. Spend a year working with a policy partner on themes of resilient communities or digital society. We offer up to £120k. More detail below in this 🧵 www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
Funding

Picture of a library
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American Statistical Association History of Statistics @hos-asa.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Doomed to mediocrity or regression to the mean? In June 1934 Harold Hotelling (ASA Fellow, 1937) writes a polite but devasting critique on the 1933 book The Triumph of Mediocrity in Business by Horace Secrist (ASA Fellow, 1918). 1/2
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Rory Cellan-Jones @rorycj.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
Can’t believe how UK media has failed to call out Pete Hegseth who used the D-Day commemoration to trot out a racist ideology the Nazis would have applauded. It takes an American historian Heather Cox Richardson to tell it like it is
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LaindonFeminist @viviane49.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Borrowed from X. This letter was in The Economist. It speaks for me. Precisely for me.
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