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Ewan Hoyle

@ewanhoyle.bsky.social
691 followers 1.2K following 2.1K posts

Author of the Sprint for PR Substack: @ewanhoyle.substack.com Advocate for ranked preference polling and voting systems. Increasingly overwhelmed at being one of the few who have realised that AV was the solution to the far-right all along.

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Reposted by Ewan Hoyle
Ruth Ben-Ghiat @ruthbenghiat.bsky.social · 22h
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 10h
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_tac... They were at 19% of first preferences in September 2023 in a polling scenario aimed at eliminating tactical voting considerations, so if they're below that now in true preferences, he's not taken them forward.
electoralcalculus.co.uk
Tactical Voting Poll September 2023
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
I think the MPs need to be the ones leaving. The Green Party constitution is the problem, and will always leave them vulnerable to members hijacking party direction. Better to start afresh with a constitution that will allow them to be more relaxed and professional.
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Reposted by Ewan Hoyle
Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
This is absolutely damning. A must-read.
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peterkellner.bsky.social @peterkellner.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Ignore the Greens’ misleading claims. It was a catastrophic night for Zack Polanski, and a remarkable victory for Sagal Absi-Wali kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-figure...
kellnerp.substack.com
The figures that make Sagal Abdi-Wali’s victory remarkable
Ignore the Greens’ misleading claims. It was a catastrophic night for Zack Polanski
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Excellent opportunity for him to shoot a tiktok of him cleaning his ears with an electric toothbrush while getting ready for his day.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I don't think they had all the MPs of a party join them, did they?
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
If enough people leave, the incentive for the MPs and leadership to leave and start a new party with a decent constitution becomes irresistible. That new party could do an electoral pact with the Lib Dems to prevent the right winning the next election, and prevent a Labour majority.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Yup, it's time to leave the party en masse, and start a new one with a constitution that works.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I still think they need to start a new party with a proper constitution.
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Reposted by Ewan Hoyle
UCL Constitution Unit @conunitucl.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The effects of electoral systems: a new Constitution Unit project @alanrenwick.bsky.social launches a new project seeking to examine the extent to which different claims about voting systems are backed up by evidence, and how this might apply to Westminster elections. Read it 👇️
blogs.ucl.ac.uk
The effects of electoral systems: a new Constitution Unit project
Many claims are made about the effects of different voting systems, but to what extent are these backed up by evidence? And how might this evidence apply to Westminster elections? Alan Renwick introduces a new Constitution Unit project seeking to answer these questions in a way that is accessible for politicians, campaigners, journalists, and the public at large.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
was that bit maybe removed as it was ruled "out of order"? I think I've read that somewhere, and it's possible you'd seen an earlier copy. I may also be wrong.
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Reposted by Ewan Hoyle
UCL Constitution Unit @conunitucl.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The effects of electoral systems: a new Constitution Unit project @alanrenwick.bsky.social launches a new project seeking to examine the extent to which different claims about voting systems are backed up by evidence, and how this might apply to Westminster elections. Read it 👇️
blogs.ucl.ac.uk
The effects of electoral systems: a new Constitution Unit project
Many claims are made about the effects of different voting systems, but to what extent are these backed up by evidence? And how might this evidence apply to Westminster elections? Alan Renwick introduces a new Constitution Unit project seeking to answer these questions in a way that is accessible for politicians, campaigners, journalists, and the public at large.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Could it happen in this parliament if there is a realisation that the parties of the right have no internal democracy and could stitch up a stand-aside announcement at the last minute? Farage did it in 2019... ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/why-we-nee... Is such an outcome a tolerable risk?
ewanhoyle.substack.com
Why we need electoral reform in this parliament, and how we deliver it.
Andy Burnham has promised electoral reform in the next manifesto. We need to persuade him to act now.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Well I think it's realistic. Good night.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
You're talking about proportional representation. I'm talking about instant run-off voting for single-member constituencies. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... It batters the far-right in an entirely fair, and predictable way.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The Perils of Proportional Representation for Ethnic Minorities
Two arguments about ethnic minorities run through the debate over replacing first past the post. One promises that proportional representation would represent minorities better; the other worries tha...
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
...the agenda they are pushing becomes pointless.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Ranked preference polls will change the way the media landscape operates. They think there is a demand for far-right friendly content, and they think backing these parties will help their funders. Once they know half of voters hate the line they're pushing, and it won't help the far-right get in...
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
...antibiotics will cure a bacterial infection. You're saying leeches won't.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
That was proportional to first preferences. We don't know what people's ranked preferences were at that time. We know what people's ranked preferences look like now. They show ranked choice voting would batter the far-right hard in every country I could find data for. I'm saying the right...
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
If anyone wants to James Watson the f*** out of me finding the evidence suggesting that ranked choice voting probably prevents fascism... please do. I'm tired, and I probably don't have the skills or experience to take this forward properly. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/its-time-t...
ewanhoyle.substack.com
It’s time to get TUFF on the far-right.
Favourability polling shows ranked choice voting to be The Universal Fascism Firewall.
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Weird Alex @jackalpants.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Hey YOU You like art, right? Photography, illustrations, comics, oil paintings, collage, mosaics, charcoal sketches, porn, the written word? LIKE/RESKEET PARITY might be for you! When you like something enough to LIKE it- RESKEET it too! It's as simple as that!
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
It spooked people unnecessarily in a way the leadership probably would rather it didn't. It's much closer to acceptable on the spectrum of motion titles over which the party has no control, but it should have been a warning they acted upon.
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Reposted by Ewan Hoyle
European Greens @europeangreens.eu · 05/10/2026
Our statement on the recent Green Party of England and Wales motion 'Zionism is Racism'. europeangreens.eu/news/egp-pos...
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Can confirm he has actually liked this tweet. 🫣
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Yeah. And it works.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I think the fact that the party leadership can't influence the content and titles of motions, and there isn't a democratically elected conference committee that decides whether they get accepted for debate, is going to keep causing serious problems while the membership has a motivated hard left.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
...give the new party that buffer they need to deter extremists from joining, while they establish there is a demand for a professional green party of the socially liberal left.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
It doesn't fix the fact that their constitution simply isn't fit for purpose. The MPs and leadership team should leave and start a new party with a proper constitution. The Lib Dem constitution works fine, probably because they aren't at the end of any political spectrum. The legacy GPEW should...
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The Lib Dems are firmly in the progressive bloc. The right bloc is much the leakier, with half of Tory supporters having a progressive party as their 2nd pref (mostly Lib Dem). See below. Tory+Reform 2nd preferences are much lower than their 1st prefs.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The poll was with YouGov btw
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
...and pre-empts Farage pulling a fast one at the behest of crypto billionaires. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/wake-up-th...
ewanhoyle.substack.com
WAKE UP!! The people want woke!
A coalition of Greens and Lib Dems is the favoured outcome for the next election. Let's make it happen.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
...a socially liberal green party of the left. They will not be successful as far-left authoritarian ranters. If they want an electoral strategy that's infinitely superior to "stand everywhere, target 4 seats" 🤦‍♂️...the Shifting Stands pact with the Lib Dems gives them control over the next election.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
...works very well for a democratic party that isn't dominated by extreme, factional members. The current Green leadership could do much worse than copying and pasting the majority of that constitution, and leaving much of their new membership in the GPEW. The Green MPs can be very successful as..
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
...tactical vote and pushed Labour into single figures polling by May. I suspect they deliberately downplayed their support because they knew they'd completely lost control of the direction of the party. That, or their CEO and Campaigns people are incompetent. The Lib Dem constitution...
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
...them listen, you just need to burn it down and rebuild somewhere else with people you can trust. I conducted a poll in March this year that showed the Greens had a 10-point lead in voters' first preferences over Labour. If they'd gone public with it, they could have become the progressive...
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I genuinely think the MPs and leaders need to leave the party and start again with a new constitution. This is just a natural progression from "abolish landlords" at the last conference. If, as the leaders of the party, you can't tell the members not to do shameful or awkward things and have...
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The MPs have the option of quitting the party en masse (there aren't that many of you to persuade) and starting a new party with a constitution that is fit for purpose. This will keep happening until you do, and you'll keep failing the British people by being an unserious option.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The MPs should leave the party and form a new one with a proper constitution.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The MPs should leave the party and form a new one with a proper constitution that would prevent this dumb shit.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The only meeting I went to, the chair of the local party freely stated to me that he was about to be kicked out of Labour for antisemitism when he left. Quite a welcome to the party, that. 😔
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CREEPYpasta ben @pastaben.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
you have to see this
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Is that little Bobby J at the front?
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/trump-and-...
ewanhoyle.substack.com
Trump and Musk hate the Alternative Vote
It’s time to start deploying the best anti-fascist electoral system.
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Reposted by Ewan Hoyle
Will Cooling @willcooling.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
It means voters still have to play tactical guessing games because they need to work out who will be in the top two, and then make sure they give at least their second preference to one of them. And that becomes really tricky in genuinely three-way or four-way races
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Zoë Grünewald @zoegrunewald.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
This feels like important reading to understand why Jewish Green members are deeply concerned about this motion jewishgreens.greenparty.org.uk/2026/02/12/w...
jewishgreens.greenparty.org.uk
Why Jewish Greens are urging party members to vote against THE MOTION: ZIONISM IS RACISM - Jewish Greens
Why Jewish Greens are urging party members to vote against the motion 'Zionism is Racism' at the Green Party's Spring 2026 conference
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
...before he was kicked out for antisemitism. What a first impression! They, and the Lib Dems are completely failing social liberals dismayed by Labour’s moral cowardice. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/wake-up-th...
ewanhoyle.substack.com
WAKE UP!! The people want woke!
A coalition of Greens and Lib Dems is the favoured outcome for the next election. Let's make it happen.
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
...and I would have told them their conference was a shambles and they needed to adopt something like the Lib Dem constitution to retain some semblance of control over their growing party. I went to the local party AGM and a bunch were Labour refugees. The co-chair told me he left Labour...
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I joined the Greens after realising voting intention polls were underestimating their true support by 6-13 points. I did a ranked preference poll that showed them 10 points clear of Labour in first preferences in March. I applied to be a political strategy consultant for them earlier this year...
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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
...immature people in that niche take over your agenda. They should be in the running to lead the next government. Their lovey-dovey bullshit constitution means they will probably need to split off and write a new one, and leave the lunatic left that has taken over to drive the party into a ditch.
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