Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Our first DevolvedElections Westminster projection on recent polling: 🌹 Lab — 301 ➡️ Reform — 121 🌳 Con — 77 🔶 LD — 72 🏴 SNP — 45 🐉 PC — 8 ☘️ SF — 7 🌱 Green — 4 🔷 UUP — 4 🦁 DUP — 3 ⚫ Ind — 3 🌹 SDLP — 2 ⚪ Speaker — 1 ⬅ Restore — 1 Ⓣ TUV — 1 From devolvedelections.co.uk/westminster/ 31112
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Our Westminster model, going live tomorrow, has Labour winning Holborn & St Pancras by about 45% to 30% (Adding together Green and Feinstein). This is a general election model not a by-election model so candidates aren't considered. 082
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Three of the UK’s four nations are led by parties advocating a split. Which is most likely to go? theconversation.com/three-of-the...theconversation.comThree of the UK’s four nations are led by parties advocating a split. Which is most likely to go?New prime minister Andy Burnham is facing renewed calls for independence votes. 084
Reposted by Eoghan KellyTim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Sorry to be a (Conservative) party pooper, butcentrewrite.brightblue.org.ukThe Keminaissance is a myth. The Tories are still like a weird uncle.Badenoch’s increasing tendency towards being ‘extremely online’ has led the party to paint itself into an ‘anti-woke’ corner that, to the majority of Brits who do not spend much time online… 1415139
Reposted by Eoghan KellyConor J. Kelly @conorjkelly.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Thanks to @irishtimes.com for publishing this article by @dkennytcd.bsky.social and me on the criteria for calling a border poll. www.irishtimes.com/politics/202... #BorderPoll #Ireland #BorderPoll #SpéirGorm #NorthernIreland #UKPolitics #IrishPoliticsirishtimes.comHow would a Border poll on Irish unity get called in Northern Ireland?The Belfast Agreement sets out rules for calling a unity referendum, but is vague on some details 01210
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 10/09/2026A useful guide to anyone interested in Electoral Reform in Ireland. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are on the way. 020
Reposted by Eoghan KellyRobert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 07/09/202690 years ago, Parliament responded to the rise of Oswald Mosley's Blackshirts by passing the Public Order Act, which banned political uniforms, private militias and the threat of force for political objects. The debates make very resonant reading today. Here's the Liberal Robert Bernays. (Short 🧵) 4123691265
Reposted by Eoghan KellyIreland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 05/09/2026Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 40 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌳 Aontú — 8 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 💬 Independent — 6 Make your own on: irishelections.ie/general/ 163
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/09/2026I for one am shocked to hear that JL Partners are involved in this. I just wish there had been warning signs and that someone had contacted the Telegraph about at the time. Or written about it in the Election Report. www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...static.klipy.comFuturama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That ShockedALT: Futurama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That Shocked 04317
Reposted by Eoghan KellyTim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Incl @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @qmul.bsky.social London polling.standard.co.ukJames Cleverly strong Tory candidate for London Mayor but odds on a Sadiq Khan winCommentary: This remains Labour's election to lose, especially if Sir Sadiq runs again as London is still a Left-leaning city 5149
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Not yet, but we're working on it. It'll be here when it's ready to go. devolvedelections.co.ukdevolvedelections.co.ukDevolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection ToolCreate and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date! 000
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 28/08/2026More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social in the @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy The seat projection is from a forthcoming tool on @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...standard.co.ukFull list of seats Labour 'could lose in London' to Reform, Tory and Green surgeCity’s political map set to be transformed by fragmentation of British politics 124
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 27/08/2026More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll: Labour are stabilising under Burnham, but are still down from 2024 which will cost seats. This includes a sneak peak at an upcoming projection from @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...standard.co.ukReform, Tories and Greens to hammer Labour with 'loss of up to 18 London MPs'Tories could gain eight seats, the Greens four and Reform three from Labour 21011
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 26/08/2026More from @mileendinstitute.bsky.social polling the @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy today, this time on who's voting for Reform. www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...standard.co.ukRevealed: The surprise Londoners backing Nigel Farage's ReformReform voters in the capital may not be as old as many people might think 044
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll leads the Standard this morning, Labour have a solid lead in the next London mayoral race. The Tories and Reform scrapping for second. www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...standard.co.ukSadiq Khan may face Laila Cunningham in London mayor race run-off, shock poll revealsNigel Farage’s party may beat the Conservatives in the battle for second place after first choice votes are counted in the next London mayoral contest 2147
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/08/2026Our new Scottish Indy Calculator is out today in the @scotnational.bsky.social, move the sliders to shift party supporters and demographics one way or the other. devolvedelections.co.uk/scottish-ind... www.thenational.scot/news/2646638...thenational.scotNew interactive polling tool maps how Scottish independence can be won or lostA NEW polling tool which maps out how Scottish independence could be won or lost has been launched ... 0127
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026Our projection on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll. ☘️ SF — 21 🦁 DUP — 17 🌹 SDLP — 15 🔷 UUP — 14 Ⓣ TUV — 9 🤝 AP — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire... 2104
Reposted by Eoghan KellyLSE British Politics and Policy @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social · 16/07/2026What can Andy Burnham actually do? More charisma and better communication skills will be helpful, but what about the structural problems facing the Government? Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social reflects on what's in Burnham's power to do as the new Prime Minister. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...blogs.lse.ac.ukWhat can Andy Burnham actually do? | LSE British PoliticsAndy Burnham might be more charismatic than Keir Starmer but the problems he is inheriting go beyond personality. Can he really make a difference? 11211
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/07/2026Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today! Labour — 11 Seats Greens — 5 Conservatives — 4 Reform — 3 Liberal Democrats — 2 From: @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/london/ 162
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 13/07/2026There was indeed! www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...standard.co.uk'Burnham bounce' in London could stop voters deserting Labour to the GreensExclusive: One in four Green and Lib Dem voters in London say they are more likely to vote Labour with Burnham as leader, according to new poll 110
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 13/07/2026Our latest Mile End Institure/Savanta poll finds Labour on course to win the next Mayor of London election & remain the largest party in the Assembly. @savanta.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...standard.co.ukSadiq Khan 'on course' to win fourth term as London MayorExclusive: Sir Sadiq would be re-elected to City Hall in 2028 after second preference votes are transferred, according to a new poll 12411
Reposted by Eoghan KellyIreland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 28/06/2026Our projection based on the latest RedC / @businesspost.bsky.social poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32 🟪 Social Democrats — 28 💬 Independent — 10 🌹 Labour — 7 🟢 Independent Ireland — 7 ✊ PBP-S — 5 🌳 Aontú — 4 🌱 Green — 1 irishelections.ie 142
Reposted by Eoghan KellyConor J. Kelly @conorjkelly.bsky.social · 21/05/20261/5 Delighted to say that my first book, Explaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After Brexit, is now available for pre-order with Routledge. It’s been a long road, and I’m very glad to be able to share it. www.routledge.com/Explaining-N...routledge.comExplaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After BrexitThis book explores the European stances of three of Northern Ireland’s political parties, culminating in one of the most tumultuous episodes in recent UK, Irish, and European politics. It examines how... 22510
Reposted by Eoghan KellyIreland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 22/05/2026Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed. Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central. irishelections.ie/bye-elections/ 232
Reposted by Eoghan KellyTim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 18/05/2026"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."electionanalysis.ukMRPs: A false dawn - UK Election AnalysisDr Eoghan Kelly Postdoctoral Researcher leading the Mile End Institute’s, Queen Mary University of London’s Polling London Project. He has lectured on quantitative methods at Queen’s University, Belfa... 03515
Reposted by Eoghan KellyMark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 18/05/2026I have some polling-retrospective content coming out later this week, but I can't do much better on the Q of MRPs than @eoghanly.bsky.social. On aggregate, they were useless and negatively impacted election coverage. 1155
Reposted by Eoghan KellySaskiarghhhhh Daniel @saskiadanielceramics.com · 30/04/2026This is quite the story.bbc.co.ukBBC obtains Northamptonshire Police video of woman's arrestNadine Buzzard-Quashie speaks for first time about her 29369132
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 30/04/2026We ran the election 1000 times using the Monte Carlo method, these are the most likely outcomes for each constituency. You can instantly run 1000 more variations here: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects 042
Reposted by Eoghan KellyJosh Pizzuto-Pomaco @joshpizpom.bsky.social · 29/04/2026Exclusive: Polling suggests the SNP is clinging to leads in three Edinburgh seats. But the Lib Dems and Greens are in pursuit. And projections suggest it is just as "reasonably likely" that the SNP loses or wins all three. @heraldscotland.bsky.social www.heraldscotland.com/news/2606185...heraldscotland.comSNP could be set for major losses in three Edinburgh battleground constituenciesThe SNP faces significant challenges from the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Green Party in four regional constituencies. 343
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 29/04/2026In our Monte Carlo system, which tests 1000x variations of the election, Reform win the most seats 59% of the time with Plaid Cymru winning 41%. Their mean number of seats is just 1 more than Plaid's so its very, very close. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects 132
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/04/2026Our Monte Carlo system which runs 1000 variations of this election generally finds: SNP 58-62 Reform 18-22 Lab 16-18 Green 10-13, Con 10-12 LD 9-11 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro... 042
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 20/04/2026On the topic of MRPs being effectively useless, I think the Telegraph/JL Poll messed up their own D'Hondt calculations. The real numbers are: SNP: 57 Labour:21 Conservatives: 13 Liberal Democrats: 8 Greens: 11 Reform: 19 This is really basic stuff. 22011
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 15/04/2026The least densely populated census areas according to the latest census: Garrison & Belcoo When I tell people I'm from the middle of nowhere, I mean it. 030
Reposted by Eoghan KellyOwen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 12/04/2026trying to do a NYT-style swing map but the swings are too mad 520435
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 12/04/2026I tried really hard to make our version look and feel as different to 538 as possible, but I appreciate just fully leaning into it too. devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro... 110
Reposted by Eoghan KellyEurope Elects @europeelects.bsky.social · 12/04/2026National Parliament Election in Hungary today 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 Turnout as of 9 a.m. is significantly higher than in previous elections. Plotting the 2026–2022 turnout change against Fidesz–KDNP's 2022 vote share reveals no clear pattern. #Hungary Explore live: europeelects.eu/2026/04/04/n... 13815
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 12/04/2026The latest in our party by party analysis: Prepping for Opposition: Reform in Wales devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/reform-... 243
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 10/04/2026We've got a new addition to the system to show how much uncertainty there is in this - and any - projection. Picture 1 is our current Welsh Nowcast. Pictures 2 & 3 are the same numbers but with Random Regional Variaton added. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/ 143
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 30/03/2026Devolved Elections is delighted to announce a partnership with @electheruk.bsky.social to project the number of female candidates for the upcoming Scottish and Welsh elections. Currently, we expect Scotland to have a much more even gender split than Wales. devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/devolve...devolvedelections.co.ukDevolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection ToolCreate and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date! 21515
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 25/03/2026We think that projection is a touch dramatic. There's plenty of room in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd for a Green from the Swansea end and Lib Dem from Powys. bsky.app/profile/devo... 021
Reposted by Eoghan KellyConor J. Kelly @conorjkelly.bsky.social · 23/03/2026Resharing my new article “The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives” @eoghanly.bsky.social @muirismac.bsky.social @qubelfastofficial.bsky.social @ballioloxford.bsky.social @politicsoxford.bsky.social www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....tandfonline.comThe legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectivesThis article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off... 154
Reposted by Eoghan KellyTim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 04/03/2026Personally, I'd have gone with the fact that "one in five (22%) also supported it for non-white citizens whose parents were born in the UK" for the headline. 😱theguardian.comMost Reform members believe non-white UK citizens born abroad should be forced or encouraged to leave, poll findsNigel Farage’s recent efforts to woo centre-ground voters may cause tension in party’s right flank, says Hope Not Hate 1313449
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 01/03/2026We have a new system almost ready to go which accounts for the fact that a lot of Green voters won't have a Green candidate on the ballot. We'll launch it once the Greens confirm which seats they're contesting. If anyone has the list please send it over! 061
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 25/02/2026People are welcome to make projections based on whatever method they like. But, the entirely unsurprising claim that 25% of Labour voters prefer the SNP to Reform does not mean they will go out and vote for the SNP in places Reform have never stood a candidate! 1133
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDr Adam Evans @a-b-evans.bsky.social · 25/02/2026For those interested in devolution and public policy disasters, this is an interesting paper on the 'cash for ash' scandal, the RHI inquiry and what the crisis and the response to the inquiry tells us about Northern Ireland's governance #devolution #stormonttandfonline.comThe legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectivesThis article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off... 172
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 18/02/2026Scotland is about to demonstrate how badly FPTP performs when you through a load of parties at it, fortunately the regional list will mask it a bit. At Westminster there is no List to hide the absurdity of these results. 253
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 18/02/2026Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll for May's Scottish Parliament election: 🎗️ SNP — 57 🌹 Lab — 18 🌳 Con — 12 🌱 GP — 10 🐤 LD — 12 ➡️ Ref — 20 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪Other — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/ 21010
Reposted by Eoghan KellyConor J. Kelly @conorjkelly.bsky.social · 16/02/2026Delighted to see my new article, co-authored with @eoghanly.bsky.social and @muirismac.bsky.social, published today! Title: 'The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives' Read it open access here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....tandfonline.comThe legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectivesThis article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off... 1105
Reposted by Eoghan KellyDevolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/02/2026Our projection for May's Senedd election based on the latest More in Common poll: ➡️ Ref — 37 🌼 PC — 25 🌹 Lab — 19 🌳 Con — 10 🐤 LD — 3 🌱 GP — 2 From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/ 151