iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas

Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

New EMPCT opinion piece with Olivier Coibion on the #inflation outlook. As shown in the figure below, the current inflation trajectory is strikingly reminiscent of the late 1970s — and the implications are concerning. #EconSky #oil #oilprice #gasoline More here: tinyurl.com/ycym769x

1123

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

This puts the Fed at risk of a belated response should prices and expectations rise stronger and more persistently than currently forecasted. Read the full blog post here: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2026/0...

sites.utexas.edu

Is It 1978 All Over Again? Why Americans Are Right to Expect Much Higher Inflation

000

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Whereas then-chairman Paul Volcker voiced public commitment to disinflation, the 2026 reaction so far looks more like the 2021 reaction, when inflationary pressures were described as temporary and one-off, with only very limited official forecast revisions.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

The position of the Fed today is different than in the late 1970s.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Energy prices are one of the most powerful drivers of inflation and inflation expectations, with the comovement being consistent across time. Hence, a new oil price shock may send inflation higher in 2026.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Inflation expectations in the US remain unanchored (around 6%), much higher than official forecasts. Also the feature was visible in the 1970s, with expectations remaining high even after external inflationary pressures subsided.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Key Insights: Inflation during the 2020-2025 period almost mirrored the 1972-1978 window. In both periods an oil price shock followed, linked to struggles in Iran - the Iranian Revolution of 1978 and the ongoing war in Iran.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

New blog post by our co-director Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko: @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social Is It 1978 All Over Again? Why Americans Are Right to Expect Much Higher Inflation Short summary and link to full post below.

110

Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas

Rudi Bachmann @bachmannrudi.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

A professional announcement: Oli Coibion, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and I are starting a new conference on Expectations and Behavior, with a special focus on giving junior researchers the opportunity to interact with more senior researchers in the field.

1173

Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas

Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

Call for papers: sites.lsa.umich.edu/rudib/wp-con... Submit your work #EconSky

sites.lsa.umich.edu

083

Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas

Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

Inflation ⬆️ & Employment ⬇️ → Stagflation A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️ More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD #EconSky

reuters.com

US consumer inflation heats up; weekly jobless claims near four-year high

U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August amid higher costs for housing and food, but a surge in first-time applications for unemployment aid last week kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next Wednesday.

162

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/08/2025

Read the full blog post here: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...

000

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/08/2025

The authors emphasize that although America is further away from the battlegrounds, history shows that American consumers do react to wars overseas, calling for stabilization by policymakers and central banks, especially by anchoring expectations.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/08/2025

Importantly, these views also concern people's personal situation and not just their general economic outlook.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/08/2025

Though apparently far away, wars still transcend into the expectations of households and consumers, progressively worsening their outlook as wars drag on as shows European survey data.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/08/2025

How Wars in Foreign Countries Influence Inflation and Expectations That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".

162

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

New working paper: The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition by @jaedochoi.bsky.social, George Cui, Younghun Shim & Yongseok Shin. Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...

021

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 15/08/2025

New (updated) working paper: The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges by @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social . Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...

020

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

More details in the blog post: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0... and even more details in the paper: academic.oup.com/restud/advan...

sites.utexas.edu

How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions

000

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

While US macroeconomic announcements have large effects on foreign stock markets, the reverse is not true. Foreign economic news releases have little to no effects on US markets.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

US monetary policy has a stabilizing role after US macroeconomic news releases. When bad news about the US economy becomes available, markets expect Fed to lower interest rates, which partially offsets the decline in stock markets and thus stabilizes asset markets and economy.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

These findings suggest that investors are more confident in holding riskier assets when the US economy is doing well. Flip side: bad news about the US economy can lead to a global stock market panic

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

Why is it that global stock prices respond so much to surprises about US macroeconomic data releases? ➡️ global stock prices rise after US macroeconomic news releases ➡️investors’ perceived risk and uncertainty falls ➡️ prices of relatively safe assets also fall

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

How does news about the US economy affect the rest of the world? ➡️ after US macroeconomic news releases, global stock prices respond immediately and in a synchronized way. ➡️ effects are large: Foreign countries’ stock prices respond with magnitudes similar to US stock market.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social. Short summary below ⬇️

143

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

Much more details, including a discussion of the policy implications can be found in the blog post: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0... Or in the full working paper: utexas.app.box.com/s/ht0ddytxfx... Thank you for reading! @utaustinecon.bsky.social

sites.utexas.edu

How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-MakingBlueskyEmailTwitter

000

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

This is consistent with models where wage contracts are short-lived and expectations beyond the contract horizon are irrelevant (as @ivanwerning.bsky.social 's work highlights)

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

Only short-term expectations (and inflation perceptions) are meaningfully correlated w/ expected wage growth. Long-run inflation expectations have essentially no predictive power.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

As inflation began rising in 2022, firms initially underreacted: short-term expectations rose more slowly than actual inflation. This gave way to persistent overshooting—firms expected more inflation than actually materialized, especially in the disinflation phase in 2023–2024.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-Making New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac. Short summary follows ⬇️

121

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

Now also out as a EMPCT working paper! Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...

021

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End? New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.

041

Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas

Oliver Pfäuti @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

It took a while, but we finally have a new (heavily revised) version out: nber.org/papers/w32305

092

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Want to know more about firms' inflation expectations during the recent inflation surge? And how do their expectations correlate w/ wage expectations and firms' price setting? Check out the new EMPCT working paper by @erwan-gautier.bsky.social, Savignac & Coibion: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...

051

Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!

012

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!

012

Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas

Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17/05/2025

Alarming

0171

Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas

Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

A cautionary take on the rise in inflation expectations in the UMich survey from @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social & Olie Coibion at @empctmacrotx.bsky.social... The pandemic "inflation surge experience has further unanchored [household & firm] expectations" sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...

0172

Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas

Oliver Pfäuti @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

The blog post's documented patterns of inflation expectations & its conclusion below are consistent with the implications of attention changes documented in my paper on the inflation attention threshold (see Figure). Good to know, that the two Oli's at @utaustinecon.bsky.social agree 😅

072

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

Conclusion: Expectations of households and firms, following the inflation surge, have settled at new higher levels after the surge than they were prior to the surge. More details in the blog post: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...

sites.utexas.edu

What’s happening with inflation expectations?BlueskyEmailTwitter

020

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

Once these differences are corrected, the NY Fed SCE looks much more like the MSC

110

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

2. NY Fed applies different methodological choices: a. median vs mean b. Distribution questions vs point forecasts c. Panel conditioning effects

111

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

1. the Nielsen Homescan panels (with N much larger than in the other surveys), as well as the Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations survey from the Cleveland Fed look much more like the MSC (see figure above)

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

They use two strategies: 1. look at other surveys 2. dig deeper into these two surveys to find out where the differences are coming from Both point to the same answer.

100

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

What's happening with inflation expectations? Two often used household surveys disagree: - the Michigan MSC says inflation expectations are up - the NY Fed SCE says they're not... Which one is it? New blog by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social says: MSC is right! Find out why ⬇️

2159

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

After a great first day of our conference yesterday, we look forward to an exciting second day!

021

Reposted by Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below) including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social (+ some not on here)

144

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

Link to the program including more info about our speakers: sites.utexas.edu/macro/events... We're very much excited and looking forward to two days of great papers and discussions!

sites.utexas.edu

CONFERENCESBlueskyEmailTwitter

010