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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas

@empctmacrotx.bsky.social
364 followers 281 following 69 posts

Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas (EMPCT): empirical macroeconomic research for academia, policy, the media and the public sites.utexas.edu/macro

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The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Recently accepted by #QJE: “Attention to the Macroeconomy,” by Link, Peichl (@apeichl.bsky.social), Pfäuti (@pfaeutiecon.bsky.social), Roth, and Wohlfart (@johanneswohlfart.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
doi.org
Attention to the Macroeconomy*
Abstract. We measure which economic topics are top of mind using quarterly German household and firm panels from 2020 to 2024, a period that spans the post
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
New EMPCT opinion piece with Olivier Coibion on the #inflation outlook. As shown in the figure below, the current inflation trajectory is strikingly reminiscent of the late 1970s — and the implications are concerning. #EconSky #oil #oilprice #gasoline More here: tinyurl.com/ycym769x
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
New blog post by our co-director Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko: @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social Is It 1978 All Over Again? Why Americans Are Right to Expect Much Higher Inflation Short summary and link to full post below.
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Very excited that Oli's and Yuriy's book is out. You can get your copy here: tinyurl.com/385ak89u
tinyurl.com
Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments
Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments [Coibion, Olivier, Gorodnichenko, Yuriy] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments
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Rudi Bachmann @bachmannrudi.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
A professional announcement: Oli Coibion, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and I are starting a new conference on Expectations and Behavior, with a special focus on giving junior researchers the opportunity to interact with more senior researchers in the field.
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Call for papers: sites.lsa.umich.edu/rudib/wp-con... Submit your work #EconSky
sites.lsa.umich.edu
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Inflation ⬆️ & Employment ⬇️ → Stagflation A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️ More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD #EconSky
reuters.com
US consumer inflation heats up; weekly jobless claims near four-year high
U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August amid higher costs for housing and food, but a surge in first-time applications for unemployment aid last week kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next Wednesday.
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
How Wars in Foreign Countries Influence Inflation and Expectations That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
New working paper: The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition by @jaedochoi.bsky.social, George Cui, Younghun Shim & Yongseok Shin. Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
New (updated) working paper: The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges by @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social . Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social. Short summary below ⬇️
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-Making New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac. Short summary follows ⬇️
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
Now also out as a EMPCT working paper! Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End? New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.
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Oliver Pfäuti @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
It took a while, but we finally have a new (heavily revised) version out: nber.org/papers/w32305
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
Want to know more about firms' inflation expectations during the recent inflation surge? And how do their expectations correlate w/ wage expectations and firms' price setting? Check out the new EMPCT working paper by @erwan-gautier.bsky.social, Savignac & Coibion: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Alarming
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
A cautionary take on the rise in inflation expectations in the UMich survey from @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social & Olie Coibion at @empctmacrotx.bsky.social... The pandemic "inflation surge experience has further unanchored [household & firm] expectations" sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
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Oliver Pfäuti @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
The blog post's documented patterns of inflation expectations & its conclusion below are consistent with the implications of attention changes documented in my paper on the inflation attention threshold (see Figure). Good to know, that the two Oli's at @utaustinecon.bsky.social agree 😅
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
What's happening with inflation expectations? Two often used household surveys disagree: - the Michigan MSC says inflation expectations are up - the NY Fed SCE says they're not... Which one is it? New blog by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social says: MSC is right! Find out why ⬇️
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
After a great first day of our conference yesterday, we look forward to an exciting second day!
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below) including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social (+ some not on here)
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below) including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social (+ some not on here)
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
The Economics of Trade Bloc Formation: Who Wins from Decoupling? How have recent developments like the US-China trade war, Brexit, or the breakdown of economic ties between the West & Russia affected trade? New blog post by @nityanayar.bsky.social & co-authors looks into these questions ⬇️
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Congratulations Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social 🥳
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
New working paper by @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social and coauthors
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Nitya Pandalai-Nayar @nityanayar.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Excited to spend AY-25-26 in Munich! Looking forward to lots of European travels :-) @lmumuenchen.bsky.social, thanks for hosting us
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
How quickly will workers adapt to AI-driven changes? New blog post: 𝐒𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 by @nityanayar.bsky.social, Beraja & Adao Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
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Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · 12/03/2025
Our Monetary Policy Conference is in full swing! Kicked off by an inspiring keynote from Olivier Coibion @utaustinecon.bsky.social, we're now in intense parallel sessions, diving deep into the data & discussions. We look forward to more debates today & tomorrow! @cepr.org @schularick.bsky.social
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
How quickly will workers adapt to AI-driven changes? New blog post: 𝐒𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 by @nityanayar.bsky.social, Beraja & Adao Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 09/03/2025
10 year ago, Oli Coibion ( @empctmacrotx.bsky.social ) and I had a paper in AEJ Macro about inflation expectations in the U.S. (www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...). We found that oil/gasoline prices strongly predict inflation expectations. This "iron law" continues to hold. #inflation #EconSky
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
New blog post on summarizing the key findings from the paper "𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐁𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐂𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐕𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧fl𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧? 𝐀 𝐕𝐨𝐱 𝐏𝐨𝐩𝐮𝐥𝐢 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐜𝐡" by Coibion and coauthors: tinyurl.com/blogcoibion
tinyurl.com
What would you pay to eliminate business cycles or inflation?BlueskyEmailTwitter
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
New working paper by our co-director Oli Coibion and co-authors ⬇️ They find that households would sacrifice around 5% of lifetime consumption to eliminate business cycles or inflation. However, these numbers differ across households: exposure, uncertainty, etc., matter!
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Chicago Booth Review @chicagoboothreview.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Tariffs—or the anticipation of them—could affect prices, according to Booth's Michael Weber (paper with @utaustinecon.bsky.social’s Olivier Coibion, @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social’s @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social) www.chicagobooth.edu/review/podca... #econsky
chicagobooth.edu
Trumponomics: Expect Higher Inflation—with or Without Tariffs
Chicago Booth’s Michael Weber explains how tariffs—or the anticipation of them—could affect prices.
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
Oli Cobion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber wrote a new blog post on what Americans expect from the Trump tariffs: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0... Key results: they expect to bear a share of tariffs, firm managers expect to raise prices. Disagreement b/n Dems & Reps, and many more in blog
sites.utexas.edu
The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are RespondingBlueskyEmailTwitter
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UT-Austin Economics @utaustinecon.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
The February 2025 issue of AEJ: Economic Policy features articles by both Marika Cabral and Jackson Dorsey. @aeajournals.bsky.social
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
Oli Cobion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber wrote a new blog post on what Americans expect from the Trump tariffs: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0... Key results: they expect to bear a share of tariffs, firm managers expect to raise prices. Disagreement b/n Dems & Reps, and many more in blog
sites.utexas.edu
The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are RespondingBlueskyEmailTwitter
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Congratulations @nityanayar.bsky.social , Andrei Levchenko and Zhen Huo on your publication of "International Comovement in the Global Production Network" in @reveconstudies.bsky.social 🥳 Link to the paper: academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Congratulations @nityanayar.bsky.social , Andrei Levchenko and Zhen Huo on your publication of "International Comovement in the Global Production Network" in @reveconstudies.bsky.social 🥳 Link to the paper: academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Congratulations to Chris Boehm and former UT Austin grad @kronerniklas.bsky.social on getting their paper "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle" accepted at Review of Economic Studies @reveconstudies.bsky.social !🥳 @utaustinecon.bsky.social Link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/wak4l...
dropbox.com
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Congratulations to Chris Boehm and former UT Austin grad @kronerniklas.bsky.social on getting their paper "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle" accepted at Review of Economic Studies @reveconstudies.bsky.social !🥳 @utaustinecon.bsky.social Link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/wak4l...
dropbox.com
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Congratulations to our co-director @nityanayar.bsky.social on becoming a new Board Member at @aeacswep.bsky.social!
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
New work by our co-director, Oli Coibion, together with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and Michael Weber on the upcoming Trump tariffs ⬇️
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
New work by our co-director, Oli Coibion, together with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and Michael Weber on the upcoming Trump tariffs ⬇️
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
As climate change intensifies, extreme weather events like the fires in LA pose growing threats to economies. A blog post by @nityanayar.bsky.social, Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Gaurav Khanna and @nicomorales.bsky.social discusses how firms adapt supply chains to these risks: tinyurl.com/abbw5mt3
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Congratulations to @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social for his publication in the current issue of the Journal of Monetary Economics JME, co-authored with @klaus-adam.bsky.social and @treinelt.bsky.social! www.sciencedirect.com/journal/jour...
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
As climate change intensifies, extreme weather events like the fires in LA pose growing threats to economies. A blog post by @nityanayar.bsky.social, Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Gaurav Khanna and @nicomorales.bsky.social discusses how firms adapt supply chains to these risks: tinyurl.com/abbw5mt3
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Empirical Macroeconomics Policy Center of Texas @empctmacrotx.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
Very happy to have Sandy Black @econsandy.bsky.social back at UT Austin @utaustinecon.bsky.social!
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