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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 10h

Setting aside everything else… given the setup, I actually expected the vampire game index the author came up with to have some correlation with the business cycle… but it didn’t…

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 17h

Glad to join Jonathan Westover at the Human Capital Leadership Podcast and share Main Street perspective: Homebase's data shows a combination of warming labor markets and slowing employment growth, reflecting the impact of immigration policy and an aging society. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...

podcasts.apple.com

New Data Shows Immigration Policy is Slowing Jobs Market

Podcast Episode · Human Capital Leadership · October 8 · 32m

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Are 2-axis charts our most controversial dual-use visualization technology?

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

tldr, if the labor market keeps getting stronger, hiring will rise more than it has already... but it will need to get MUCH stronger (cue Fed cringe gif) to result in late 2010s hiring volume... and forget about returning to the Great Resignation

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Each year’s data is a blend of source data from the prior 2-3 years so any analysis based on timing is going to be contaminated There are other reasons the BLS warns against using this data for time series comparisons but this one stands out to me www.bls.gov/oes/oes_ques...

bls.gov

Frequently Asked Questions

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Also, while hiring is very low (using the 2010s as a benchmark) relative to unemployment... Taking that shortfall as a given, we've seen about as much improvement in hiring as you'd expect given a small improvement in the unemployment

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I occasionally see the question "why hasn't hiring picked up more given the increase in job openings" but the very small increase in hiring we've seen is consistent with the concurrent small increase in job openings

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Like many Bay Area remote workers, I commuted into the City*** today ***Redwood City

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I've been talking a lot about labor market data that looks stronger in September and early October; headcount actions from the Business Trends & Outlook Survey (BTOS) are an exception Recent headcount actions less expansionary than a year earlier for the 1st time since late Feb

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Another data point suggesting September's renewed labor market strength (not apparent in the jobs report!) has continued into early October

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

3/ The recent improvement in continuing claims suggests we should expect further small declines in unemployment due to permanent layoff in the next few months

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

2/ Continuing claims also noticeably lower than they were 4 weeks ago. After the late spring / early summer pause, the labor market is getting stronger again.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Claims: 1/ Initial claims below 200K for the 4th consecutive week.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Yesterday when it was time to go to bed my kindergartner sadly exclaimed, “But I love homework!”

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Assuming you are talking about the October jobs report, it comes out 3 days after the midterms But the upbeat labor market data I’m talking about has already dropped, and has been dropping for a ~month

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Pink Floyd was great from 1967 to 1975. I find the Wall to be mostly unlistenable these days 🤷‍♂️

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Here’s the BLS/JOLTS data on openings, also showing slight improvement. bsky.app/profile/econ...

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

We have a wide range of data sources showing the labor market has improved since late 2025 - various BLS indicators ADP, claims for unemployment insurance, the Census BTOS, Morning Consult… it would be very surprising if Indeed job postings DIDN’T show a recovery

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

We now have 4 data points indicating that the labor market was improving further past the September payroll survey period (BLS data notwithstanding, and 2 indicating that continued to the beginning of October...

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Also zooming, even faster but from a deeper hole: postings for software development roles. At the current rate we'll be back at prepandemic levels by the very end of 2027.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Postings for human resources (incl recruiting roles) zooming ahead, at the current rate will be back at pre-pandemic levels by Thanksgiving

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Indeed job postings creeping up, +2.5% Y/Y. Not a boom, but things are getting better

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It’s on their website! But there’s also a FRED series (which has been wrong in the past due to a glitch… maybe they fixed it)

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

ADP's 4 week job gain kept accelerating past the payroll survey week... Not the only indicator broadcasting ongoing strength. Don't put too much weight on last week's disappointing BLS data. (I say this as a big BLS fan.)

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

***I have plenty of good things to say about pre-1976 Pink Floyd and pre-1982 Genesis

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

First row, Beatles aside, is music I don’t like anymore*** but it opened a lot of doors to the later stuff.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

This week we will get our first high frequency data from October, and I'm looking to see if they match the strength we saw in September (disappointing jobs report notwithstanding). So far we have one data point and it looks very good: the Morning Consult unemployment rate index

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I've read some speculation that Jefferson wrote it. But far from my area of expertise

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Yes George Washington owned slaves but he doesn’t own slaves anymore and this passage is still one heck of a mission statement

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

If you described the 2026 macro environment to a 2019 policymaker they wouldn’t be thrilled but they would have thought “minor, fixable policy error” A 2011 policymaker would have swooned with excitement at the possibility of policy success

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Policymaker: “We need to end Secular Stagnation” <Secular Stagnation ends> Voter: “Thanks. I hate it.”

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

How I had never seen this???!!!?? Lloyd Price, Elton John, Leon Russell and Dr John performing “Stagger Lee” at the R&R HOF This is incredible. A certified banger. youtu.be/yNanvs_S7hw?...

youtu.be

Lloyd Price with Elton John and All - Stagger Lee - Rock & Roll H of F I Ceremony - 2011 4K 5.1

YouTube video by Show 10 Música & Vídeo

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

My recap of September's disappointing but not terrible jobs report. Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

There’s an extremely naughty Dril tweet that I unintentionally referenced at the beginning of my post

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Tech in Joey’s chart is a set of industries; in the Indeed data, software development is an occupation. So they’d have a substantial overlap but are very distinct entities!

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

15/ We've also seen a pickup in job finding rates among people who are not in the labor force:

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

14/ Here's another data point that was a pleasant surprise... with luck, we're seeing the earliest stages of a recovery in job finding rates for the unemployed. (Could be a headfake, of course.)

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

13/ We saw a very small pop in very short duration unemployment. However, with a broader view - the decline in unemployment during 2026 has come primarily via short-duration-unemployment (<14 weeks). Longer-term unemployment (>15 weeks) has not budged in the past 9 months.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

12/ The African American unemployment rate spiked in September, reversing some (but not all) of its recent decline. It's still a little lower than it was a year ago.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

It happens from time to time. Last month we had a big gain in NFP employment whereas the other data sources looked softer. And I was more upbeat on May than on April based on the other data, but NFP gains jn April were larger than May’s It’s just noise, data sources out of sync

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Up to you to believe what you want but it is currently impoverishing your understanding of the labor market!

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

It's fine to worry, and I understand that we're all too busy to verify everything to our satisfaction, but *in this case*, *at present*, skepticism about the BLS data process will leave you underinformed or even misinformed

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

11/ That increase in re-entrants and new entrants is, not surprisingly, associated with a large increase in unemployment for people in their early 20s. The highest since December, though quite a bit lower than it was a year ago.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Jokes aside, I understand why people are worried about this, but at present there is zero evidence of tampering with the BLS data (either to make it look worse or better than reality)

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

No. I think the steel man case for the LD is that it tracks one important but narrow dimension of the labor market

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

People keep asking me if the BLS jobs data is being tampered with for political reasons, and given the strength of other sources in September it's time to joke "yes, they're faking data to make the job market look worse than it actually is" [JOKE!!!]

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

It's possible I'll look stupid in November 6th when the October data comes out, but based on all the fairly strong alternate data we saw during September from other sources, I expect THAT report will look much better.

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