iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Dan Silverman

Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Likewise, I think it’s important to learn about the secret crime wave being suffered by real Americans, that isn’t being captured by actual crime statistics

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 14h

Touché I guess the question is whether it has accelerated in recent years. I think there’s a good case it has

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 14h

Psychology of electorate during any period of fascist electoral ascendancy

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 14h

“Well, you see Trump won the primary and became president…then he got chucked out and led an insurrection, but people forgot about that…and then he got reelected, and wanted to take Greenland. Oh, and this is on his social media platform, where he posts officially. And did I mention it’s AI?”

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 14h

Imagine if someone tried to explain this image to you in the year 2015.

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Biden called a pro Trump comedian’s rhetoric “garbage“ in 2024 and there was like a week of controversy-focused coverage about it

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Thanks. Hopefully I did it justice! Very nice piece

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

And MBS is an aggressive young male leader who might hate the idea of “losing” to Iran and want to fight until he realizes he has no choice

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

But will this solve their problems? I think many are not optimistic about their ability to defeat Iran or the Houthis on the battlefield, and thought they might look around at their options and choose to essentially capitulate and cut a deal with Iran

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Neither elite princes nor marginalized foreign workers have terribly high combat motivation

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Anyway, it’s really just the zillionth data point on the folly of personalist authoritarianism. I mean, do we think anyone in the Saudi military apparatus could tell MBS that, maybe this won’t go well/it might not be a good idea?

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Also why is this public knowledge. It seems like the Houthis are going to prepare for it now in ways that don’t bode well for the Saudis. Sigh

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Good call. I’ll admit I didn’t foresee this. What made you so sure they’d escalate this much and do a large-scale invasion/assault?

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

“Those protesters threatening your legitimacy? The ones you’ve been trying to brand as foreign agents? Actually we’re going to do everything we can to make them look like foreign agents now” didn’t work. Alas

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Not terribly surprising, but nice to have this shown convincingly at the local level + the paper does also speaks to some other nuances on types of protest, mechanisms, etc. Ultimately, maybe not the best idea if you’re an external adversary to play exactly into your opponent‘s narrative?

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

They argue that the effects don’t really reflect a pro-regime “rally” but the fact that the Iranian regime could delegitimize the protests as foreign-backed to communities after they were hit — using a text analysis to show the broad use of this framing

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

New NBER working paper by Mehmood, Prokhorskoy, and Wantchekon tests exactly how the U.S.-Israeli intervention in Iran this year impacted Iranian protest activity Shows that U.S.-Israeli airstrikes clearly ⬇️ opposition protest and ⬆️ pro-regime mobilization at the local (county) level in Iran

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Reposted by Dan Silverman

Seth Cotlar @sethcotlar.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Fun facts: Chris Rufo’s grandmother was an Italian immigrant who, I’ve heard from a reliable source, never learned to speak English fluently. Rufo’s wife meanwhile is an immigrant from Thailand. And the director of the Manhattan Institute who employs him? The son of Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Yeah, just seems like a wild transfer of responsibility across time. Like, are JFK/LBJ complicit in the Bangladesh/East Pakistan genocide? Is Marx complicit in the Soviet crimes against the Tatars? Where does it stop?

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

OK it’s probably not even worth my time, but now I kind of have to know: What is the case that Obama should *possibly* be viewed as “complicit in the Gaza genocide” — something that started 7 years after he left office and which he publicly opposed?

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

One may dislike his politics of course but it’s not possible to dismiss this as just empty words rather than concrete policy/fiscal steps being taken

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I mean, it’s not just some symbolic committee providing advice He’s increasing the hate crime prevention budget by 800%, we’re talking about concrete resources going to anti prejudice organizations

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

We’re talking about how an affiliation with someone who is bigoted opens you to questions about whether you disavow that person’s bigotry (It can) And whether it’s strategically smart to then disavow it (It is)

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Totally disagree with characterization. Also have no clue how that is relevant or what point you’re trying to prove

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

If Melania and Nick Fuentes collaborated on an anti-Israel story book, you’re saying no one could ask Trump whether he repudiates Fuentes or they’d be aiding genocide?

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I’m sorry, I’m just trying to make sure I understand: you think Mamdani distancing himself from Susan Abulhawa *hurt* the pro-Palestine movement? I think most would argue the exact opposite

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Anyway I think it would be fairly easy to show this with survey experiments with pro-Palestinian politicians or activists taking different postures wrt to antisemitism and then gauging public support. Free study idea!

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

It’s like, hmm who do we think is a savvier political thinker and better at understanding how to maximize political support for their cause, Zohran Mamdani…or ZEI Squirrel?

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

One can make all the (misguided) moral arguments about comparative victimhood or whatever one wants, but if pro-Palestinian forces want to *win* I don’t see how you can argue that “stands firmly for Palestinians + firmly against antisemitism” isn’t your best strategic posture

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I think what I see that’s most missing from this discourse is the argument that standing against antisemitism *strengthens* the pro-Palestinian movement. It makes it more politically efficacious, harder to attack. This is something that Mamdani grasps, as does Elif Eralp in Berlin.

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Reposted by Dan Silverman

Mikhail Gorbaechev @mikhailgorbaechev.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

It's true that there's not much structural antisemitism in North America anymore but you know I'm not sure if it matters that the guys coming through the synagogue door with an assault rifle are in line with a structural system of oppression.

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Is she a pro-regime Iranian diaspora member? I don’t know anything about her (nor do I want to, really) except that I’ve seen her espouse such virulent antisemitism a couple times before

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I really need to start putting this in the slides when we do Libya in my Middle East conflict class

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Reposted by Dan Silverman

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

What competitive authoritarianism looks like - officials in government trying to tilt the playing field against the opposition party or failing to restrain those in power from doing so. (We're not there yet, but this is what it looks like.)

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Reposted by Dan Silverman

Sharon 🪳🌹 @sharonk.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

really hoping we don't see a spillover into yet another Ethiopian-Eritrean war (or one that goes regional) www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/...

aljazeera.com

Ethiopia blames regional rivals as risk of conflict spillover rises

Ethiopia accuses Sudan and Egypt of backing armed groups, deepening tensions amid internal unrest.

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

So, I guess it’s hard to have your cake and eat it too about the universal and particularist lessons of the Holocaust? But interesting to see some effects and they acknowledge there could be more re: antisemitism with different samples and measures

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

They find weaker effects on attitudes toward Jews and antisemitism Some ⬆️ in feeling thermometer but it’s short term, and ⬇️ in stereotypes but only if you weren’t already warm toward Jews and its short term as well

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Their premise is that the USHMM has both universal messages about democracy, appeasement, and atrocity prevention — and specific ones about Jews and antisemitism They find pretty solid effects on the former, especially opposition to appeasement and desire to prevent atrocities. “Never again” landed

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Does visiting a major Holocaust museum impact your political views? New study in JOP by @laiabalcells.bsky.social et al uses a field experiment at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum to see They find a visit: -stokes more “never again” universalist views -has limited and fleeting fx on antisemitism

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The internet has not handled “progressive Israel critic mayor cares about antisemitism” terribly well, no it doesn’t seem so

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Like, aside from the antisemitism, he’s literally just keeping a campaign promise and following through on a frequent talking point here (I actually remembered the 800% figure since he said it so regularly)! You’re just telling us all you don’t pay attention

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The funniest thing about a “(((they))) got him” reaction is that this — an 800% ⬆️ in hate crime prevention funding — is exactly what Mamdani said he‘d do on antisemitism since since he was a longshot mayoral candidate in like February 2025

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

…and as necessary to *harness* the new technologies (increasingly powerful machines) being created and distributed in society

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

…adapting to it: “The best parents could do for their children was to make sure they had the basic skills needed to flex, learn, and adapt. Thus, more broadly than ever before, reading, writing, and arithmetic became the indispensable skills of functional individuals” Basic skills were seen as key

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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

By the way, this is NOT how people thought about the basic skills needed to navigate and harness technological change in the past For example it reminds me of a passage in Tamim Ansary’s great book Destiny Disrupted, where he’s discussing the impact of the Industrial Revolution and says of people…

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Reposted by Dan Silverman

kate conger @kateconger.com · 24/09/2026

The latest update in the rogue A.I. saga: OpenAI agents that were supposed to be performing mundane data requests for things like health data, historic photos and wait times at theme parks resorted to hacking attempts when they couldn't access the data they wanted www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/t...

nytimes.com

OpenAI’s A.I. Tried Breaching Four Other Targets, With No Prompting (Gift Article)

In each incident, the technology appeared to be conducting mundane data collection and resorted to hacking techniques to get it, researchers said.

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