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Nick Diamond

@diamondn.bsky.social
515 followers 1.9K following 14 posts

scientist of human behaviour in government — former academic 🧠 memory scientist scholar.google.ca/citations?user=Pl…

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Reposted by Nick Diamond
Ricard Solé @ricardsole.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
Do ant colonies work like liquid brains? Check this great paper in @pnas.org led by @ceabcsic.bsky.social Pol Fernandez and F.Bartumeus that shows how to explain collective foraging by modelling ants as neural agents @jordipinero.bsky.social @frazambelli.bsky.social www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
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Iva Brunec @ivabrunec.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Day 2 of #30DayChartChallenge: Slope. Canadians spent a *lot* more time alone in 2022 compared to 2005. But that comparison is especially stark for young Canadians. Code: github.com/ivabrunec/30...
Data visualization depicting a stark increase in self-reported time spent alone in the canadian time use survey from 2005 to 2022. Density plot below depicts two distributions with very different peaks.
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Brent Toderian @brenttoderian.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Half of business owners on this Toronto street estimated that more than 25% of their customers arrived by car. In fact, it was 4%. And the % of customers who who walked or cycled? 72%. Retailers routinely overestimate the # of “car customers.” Via @carltonreid.com www.forbes.com/sites/carlto...
Toronto shopping street
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Stephanie Simpson @stefsimpson.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Check out this brief review of our work by Jessica Palmieri and @mschoenauer.bsky.social They do an excellent job of summarizing the main findings for a broader audience! www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Sleep studies enter the real world - Nature Human Behaviour
Memory for details fades over time, yet retaining the spatiotemporal associations inherent to our individual experiences may be adaptively relevant. Using an art tour as an experimental setting, Diamo...
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Reposted by Nick Diamond
Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 12/03/2025
New preprint! A general overview of stats in public policy research with this (oversimplified but still helpful) separation of methods into description, explanation, and prediction #policysky HTML/PDF: stats.andrewheiss.com/snoopy-spring/ SocArXiv: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
This essay provides an overview of statistical methods in public policy, focused primarily on the United States. I trace the historical development of quantitative approaches in policy research, from early ad hoc applications through the 19th and early 20th centuries, to the full institutionalization of statistical analysis in federal, state, local, and nonprofit agencies by the late 20th century. I then outline three core methodological approaches to policy-centered statistical research across social science disciplines: description, explanation, and prediction, framing each in terms of the focus of the analysis. In descriptive work, researchers explore what exists and examine any variable of interest to understand their different distributions and relationships. In explanatory work, researchers ask why does it exist and how can it be influenced. The focus of the analysis is on explanatory variables (X) to either (1) accurately estimate their relationship with an outcome variable (Y), or (2) causally attribute the effect of specific explanatory variables on outcomes. In predictive work, researchers as what will happen next and focus on the outcome variable (Y) and on generating accurate forecasts, classifications, and predictions from new data. For each approach, I examine key techniques, their applications in policy contexts, and important methodological considerations. I then consider critical perspectives on quantitative policy analysis framed around issues related to a three-part “data imperative” where governments are driven to count, gather, and learn from data. Each of these imperatives entail substantial issues related to privacy, accountability, democratic participation, and epistemic inequalities—issues at odds with public sector values of transparency and openness. I conclude by identifying some emerging trends in public sector-focused data science, inclusive ethical guidelines, open research practices, and future directions for the field.	Description	Explanation	Prediction
General question	What exists?	Why does it exist? How can it be influenced?	What will happen next?
Focus of analysis	Focus is on any variable—understanding different variables and their distributions and relationships	Focus is on X —understanding the relationship between X and Y, often with an emphasis on causality	Focus is on Y —forecasting or estimating the value of Y based on X, often without concern for causal mechanisms
Names for variable of interest	—		Explanatory variable
	Independent variable
	Predictor variable
	Covariate		Outcome variable
	Dependent variable
	Response variable
Goal of analysis	Summarize and explore data to identify patterns, trends, and relationships	Estimation: Test hypotheses or theories and make inferences about the relationship between one or more X variables and Y
 
Causal attribution: A special form of estimating—make inferences about the causal relationship between a single X of interest and Y through credible causal assumptions and identification strategies	Generate accurate predictions; maximize the amount of explainable variation in Y while minimizing prediction error
Evaluation criteria	—	Confidence/credible intervals, coefficient significance, effect sizes, and theoretical consistency	Metrics like root mean square error (RMSE) and R^2; out-of-sample performance
Typical approaches	Univariate summary statistics like the mean, median, variance, and standard deviation; multivariate summary statistics like correlations and cross-tabulations	t-tests, proportion tests, multivariate regression models; for causal attribution, careful identification through experiments, quasi-experiments, and other methods with observational data	Multivariate regression models; more complex black-box approaches like machine learning and ensemble modelsTable of contents
Introduction
Brief history of statistics in public policy
Core methodological approaches
Description
Explanation
Prediction
The pitfalls of counting, gathering, and learning from public data
Future directions
References
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Nick Diamond @diamondn.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Excited to see this big collaborative project out in the world @naturehumbehav.bsky.social ! Sleep actively enhances memory for the temporal sequence - but not sensory details - of our real-life experiences, even months-to-years later. 🧠 oscillations matter. Original 🧵: bsky.app/profile/diam...
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Nature Human Behaviour @nathumbehav.nature.com · 11/03/2025
@diamondn.bsky.social et al. find that sleep enhances memory for the order of events from an art tour, but not the details of the events. The sleep-related advantage for sequences persists for over a year. @brianlevine.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Sleep selectively and durably enhances memory for the sequence of real-world experiences - Nature Human Behaviour
How does sleep transform the way we remember our experiences? This study finds that sleep enhances memory for the order of events from an art tour, but not the details of the events. The sleep-related...
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Nature Human Behaviour @nathumbehav.nature.com · 10/03/2025
In this Perspective, Dörr et al. argue that research on social media has mainly focused on anti-social behaviours and call for more research on the ways in which social media platforms can empower pro-social behaviour. www.nature.c...
nature.com
A research agenda for encouraging prosocial behaviour on social media - Nature Human Behaviour
Dörr et al. argue that research on social media has mainly focused on antisocial behaviours and call for more research on the ways in which social media platforms can empower prosocial behaviour.
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Monika Schönauer @mschoenauer.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
In this new preprint from our lab, we share exciting new findings on how „Sleep resolves competition between explicit and implicit memory systems!“ 🧠 💤 🚨 Kleespies, Paulus, et al. @katjakleespies.bsky.social @philipppaulus.bsky.social For a brief walkthrough, I refer you to Katja‘s post below!
doi.org
Sleep Resolves Competition Between Explicit and Implicit Memory Systems
Sleep supports stabilization of explicit, declarative memory and benefits implicit, procedural memory. In addition, sleep may change the quality of memory representations. Explicit and implicit learni...
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Nanthia Suthana @suthanalab.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
🚨 New lab paper!🚨 A dream study of mine for nearly 20 yrs not possible until now thanks to NIH 🧠 funding & 1st-author lead @seeber.bsky.social We tracked hippocampal activity as people walked memory-guided paths & imagined them again. Did brain patterns reappear?🧵👇 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Human neural dynamics of real-world and imagined navigation - Nature Human Behaviour
Seeber et al. studied brain recordings from implanted electrodes in freely moving humans. Neural dynamics encoded actual and imagined routes similarly, demonstrating parallels between navigational, im...
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Paul Frankland @franklandlab.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
It's the post-"standard model" age! Our Preview of a fantastic new study from Yi Zhong's lab on the role of the hippocampus in updating remote memories. Fun putting this together with Ali Golbabaei. authors.elsevier.com/a/1kZ4f3BtfH...
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Morteza Dehghani @mdehghani.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
(1/4) Our new JEP:G paper dives into how moral values and misinformation spread on social media: media.mola-lab.org/file/1737039...
media.mola-lab.org
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Hugo Spiers @hugospiers.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
New modelling of how episodic memory can arise from spatial mapping, just out in Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Episodic and associative memory from spatial scaffolds in the hippocampus - Nature
A neocortical–entorhinal–hippocampal network model based on grid cell states recapitulates experimental results and reconciles the spatial, associative and episodic memory roles of the hippocampus.
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Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
This week's cover and editorial @thelancet.bsky.social on mis- and disinformation's impact on public health www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
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Curd Knüpfer @curdknupfer.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
In case you were wondering how things are going in Germany & on X, after Elon Musk announced his support for the far-right "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) in the upcoming Federal election: The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️
Graph that shows the sum of tweets and their impressions by members of the German Bundestag (Parliament), clustered by party. The blue AfD is a clear outlier with around 400 tweets and just under 40 million impressions.
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Jesse Anttila-Hughes @jessexjesse.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
perhaps another reason why econ and its related fields have been losing favor: epistemic supremacy of RCTs leads to incoherent policy recs
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Dan Diamond @ddiamond.bsky.social · 12/01/2025
Trust in public health agencies has fallen and not recovered. I asked Biden’s top health official what he thinks went wrong. “I can’t go toe to toe with social media,” HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra said.
washingtonpost.com
‘I can’t go toe to toe with social media.’ Top U.S. health official reflects, regrets.
Xavier Becerra, who has led the Department of Health and Human Services, says federal agencies are outmatched in a world of “instantaneous information and disinformation.”
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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Basically my view is this: right now, the vast majority of voters are getting either some or all of their political information from a giant unregulated ambient media ecosystem, which only really shows them ideas that will excite or anger them, largely free of any fact-checking
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Manlio De Domenico @manlius.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
If you feel that BlueSky is “different“ from X, the data supports you :) Using a network of 15M users (56% of the platform) we find that the probability that the log-normal law is wrong wrt to the power-law is just ~7% Why that matters? Pop 🧵 follows! 1/ #scaling #NetSky #ComplexSystems 🧪
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Will Oremus @willoremus.com · 08/01/2025
Here's our full story on the Meta news today, which goes far beyond an end to fact-checking and heralds a wider pullback from content moderation as Zuckerberg repositions the company for the Trump era. Gift link: wapo.st/4h223hP
wapo.st
Meta ends fact-checking, drawing praise from Trump
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg ended fact-checking on Facebook and Instagram in favor of community notes, calling the recent election a “cultural tipping point” on free speech.
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Joe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Community noteas take time to identify and attach, and only have any effect after this processes has completed---long after much of the exposure occurs. They also have lesser effect implicity on any content posted by large accounts as they get a *ton* of spread before a community note can be found.
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David Lazer @davidlazer.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Reflecting on the remarkable announcement from Meta today regarding content moderation. @sgonzalezbailon.bsky.social & I & team had a recent paper looking at the diffusion of (mis)information on Facebook during the 2020 election. A few reflections... sociologicalscience.com/articles-v11...
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Claes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
“We find that fact-checks are successful in debunking misperceptions. Moreover, this debunking effect is consistent across countries” Posting this key finding from our recent 16 country study. For no particular reason today. doi.org/10.1080/1520...
doi.org
When are Fact-Checks Effective? An Experimental Study on the Inclusion of the Misinformation Source and the Source of Fact-Checks in 16 European Countries
Despite increasing academic attention, several questions about fact-checking remain unanswered. First, it remains unclear to what extent fact-checks are effective across different political and med...
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David Rand @dgrand.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
🚨In Nature🚨 Meta is dropping fact-checking to avoid anti-conservative bias- but is there actually evidence of bias? We this test empirically & find that conservatives * ARE suspended more * BUT share more misinfo So suspension isn't necessarily evidence of bias www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Differences in misinformation sharing can lead to politically asymmetric sanctions - Nature
We find that conservatives tend to share more low-quality news through social media than liberals, and so even if technology companies enact politically neutral anti-misinformation policies, political...
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Charlie Warzel @cwarzel.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
A big one today with @mikecaulfield.bsky.social. It's about Jan 6th but its really about trying to diagnose what precisely is broken about our information ecosystem and why everything feels so stuck. It's about how the internet is a justification machine. www.theatlantic.com/technology/a...
theatlantic.com
The Internet Is Worse Than a Brainwashing Machine
A rationale is always just a scroll or a click away.
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Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
We have a new paper explaining all the ways you can use natural language processing to analyze text data in @natrevpsych.bsky.social We provide user friendly recommendations for using NLP to ensure rigour and reproducibility Here is a free link: www.nature.com/articles/s44...
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Ida Momennejad @neuroai.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Honored that a piece I wrote made it to NYTimes. It’s about how my mom’s stroke changed my connection to time, science, and nature. What a privilege to honor my mom in Modern Love. Below is a gift link. Let me know your thoughts 🙏🏼 www.nytimes.com/2024/12/20/s...
nytimes.com
Grief Makes Us Time Travelers (Gift Article)
A neuroscientist studying memory, I used to believe time was linear. Then my mother had a stroke.
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Christopher Barrie @cbarrie.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Pleased to share the latest version of my paper with Arthur Spirling and @lexipalmer.bsky.social on replication using LMs We show: 1. current applications of LMs in political science research *don't* meet basic standards of reproducibility...
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Kai Ruggeri @ruggeri.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
PREPRINT: Across 26 countries, we find strong preferences for individual ownership of social media feeds, commercial shopping site setup, and other online platforms. Across countries, people prefer individual ownership far more than government or commercial policy oversight. osf.io/preprints/os...
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Renee DiResta @noupside.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
I write ab propaganda & bespoke realities. Terms like “misinformation” miss the point, treat persuasive comms as a problem of facts, &underweight the immersive experience described in here. “We are the media now” is itself a basic propaganda claim to truth + power. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
I Traded My News Apps for Rumble, the Right-Wing YouTube. Here’s What I Saw. (Gift Article)
After watching 47 hours of video, I found an alternate reality curated for Trump supporters.
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Simon Eickhoff @sbe.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
The limiting factor for MRI based prediction of behavioral traits may be neither the imaging nor the pipeline or learning algorith but rather the reliability of the target phenotypes Thought provoking work my Martin Gell et al: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
How measurement noise limits the accuracy of brain-behaviour predictions - Nature Communications
Our ability to identify associations between behaviour and brain imaging is important for uncovering markers of cognition and disease. Here, the authors illustrate the importance of the reliability of...
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Kate Starbird @katestarbird.bsky.social · 14/12/2024
Our team still studies “collective sensemaking” during breaking news events. What we see with MH17 and Jan6 are attacks on the sensemaking process itself… not just a distortion (like those described in this article) but a denial of service attack on sensemaking. www.cip.uw.edu/2023/12/06/r...
cip.uw.edu
Facts, frames, and (mis)interpretations: Understanding rumors as collective sensemaking
The communicative solution to pervasive misinformation is not better facts, but better frames.
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Sandra González-Bailón @sgonzalezbailon.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
New publication (4+ years in the making): “The Diffusion and Reach of (Mis)Information on Facebook”. shorturl.at/VE2fU We analyze the propagation of 1B+ posts across content moderation regimes, with @davidlazer.bsky.social @jatucker.bsky.social @taliastroud.bsky.social @annenbergpenn.bsky.social
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John A. List @johnlist.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
Field Experiments have matured from academic curiosity to bona fide contributor to knowledge in the past few decades. Yet, the political economy of their deployment in government remains ill-understood. We provide insights in a new working paper, available here: ideas.repec.org/p/feb/natura...
ideas.repec.org
Toward an Understanding of the Political Economy of Using Fi
Field experiments provide the clearest window into the true impact of many policies, allowing us to understand what works, what does not, and why. Yet, their widespread use has not been accompanied by
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Guglielmo Briscese @gubri.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Do citizens trust their governments more if they are committed to evidence-based policymaking? What happens when evaluation results disappoint? In this new WP, we explore how policymakers & the public react to unexpected evidence: drive.google.com/file/d/13SmS... Comments welcome! #EconSky
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Balazs Aczel @balazsaczel.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
My latest writing on why we need more #exploratory research. I'm curious what people think about it. rdcu.be/d1Fkj
rdcu.be
Let the data talk: embrace exploratory research | Nature
Open-ended research is essential to building solid hypotheses in the social sciences — without it, even the best-planned analyses can fail. Open-ended research is essential to building solid hypotheses in the social sciences — without it, even the best-planned analyses can fail.
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William J. Brady @williambrady.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
New paper out in @ScienceMagazine! In 8 studies (multiple platforms, methods, time periods) we find: misinformation evokes more outrage than trustworthy news, when it does it's shared more + ppl are less likely to read before sharing. w/ @killianmcl1 @Klonick @mollycrockett 🧵👇
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Bradley Love @profdata.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
"Large language models surpass human experts in predicting neuroscience results" w @ken-lxl.bsky.social and braingpt.org. LLMs integrate a noisy yet interrelated scientific literature to forecast outcomes. nature.com/articles/s41... 1/8
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Tiziano Piccardi @tiziano.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
New paper: Do social media algorithms shape affective polarization? We ran a field experiment on X/Twitter (N=1,256) using LLMs to rerank content in real-time, adjusting exposure to polarizing posts. Result: Algorithmic ranking impacts feelings toward the political outgroup! 🧵⬇️
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Richard Fletcher @richardfletcher.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
New article in Journal of Communication looking at changes to trust in news across 46 countries in the last 10 years. Trust in news declined in just over half of countries. It decreased more in countries where TV news use has declined, and/or where social media news use has grown. A thread:
academic.oup.com
The link between changing news use and trust: longitudinal analysis of 46 countries
Abstract . Changing levels of public trust in the news are of deep concern to both researchers and practitioners. We use data from 2015 to 2023 in 46 count
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Nick Diamond @diamondn.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
Some thoughts about doing science in academia vs. the public service, & continuing to be a huge nerd. tldr: science is tight, do it everywhere medium.com/impact-canad...
medium.com
On becoming a better scientist and a bigger nerd in the public service
Dr. Nicholas Diamond, Behavioural Science Fellow
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Alberto Acerbi @acerbialberto.com · 20/11/2024
Not very surprising, but good to have an estimate: "shares without clicks’ (SwoCs) constitute around 75% of forwarded links." www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Sharing without clicking on news in social media - Nature Human Behaviour
Over 75% of links to news shared on Facebook during the election seasons of 2017–2020 were forwarded without the sharer first clicking on them. Extreme and user-aligned political content was shared mo...
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Joon Sung Park @joon-s-pk.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Simulating human behavior with AI agents promises a testbed for policy and the social sciences. We interviewed 1,000 people for two hours each to create generative agents of them. These agents replicate their source individuals’ attitudes and behaviors. 🧵 arxiv.org/abs/2411.10109
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Niels G. Mede @nielsmede.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
New #preprint! We surveyed 71,922 people in 68 countries to find out: Where do they come across information about #science? How do they #communicate about it? We also tested country factors like #AcademicFreedom and #PressFreedom and identified interesting patterns 🔎 ➡️ osf.io/preprints/os... 🧵 1/10
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Sol Messing @solmg.bsky.social · 17/11/2024
🧵The study everyone here is talking about does NOT provide evidence that Twitter/X pushed a pro-Republican home timeline ranking change in July 2023. The cascading, multiplicative effects of ranking changes likely explain the effect--details below
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Ben Litterer @blitt.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Podcasts are a popular medium, but data for computational research is limited! We introduce the Structured Podcast Research Corpus (SPoRC - huggingface.co/datasets/bli...), a large, multimodal dataset of English podcasts 🧵 arxiv.org/abs/2411.07892
arxiv.org
Mapping the Podcast Ecosystem with the Structured Podcast Research Corpus
Podcasts provide highly diverse content to a massive listener base through a unique on-demand modality. However, limited data has prevented large-scale computational analysis of the podcast ecosystem....
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Yamil Ricardo Velez @yamilrvelez.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
🚨 How should we design surveys to capture opinion in fast-changing contexts like elections or within hard-to-reach communities? 🚨 My paper, conditionally accepted at Political Analysis, develops a method that leverages LLMs and adaptive algorithms to construct surveys that evolve with user input.
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Max Falkenberg @maxfalken.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
The exodus from X/Twitter has finally started, but maybe Twitter should have died a long time ago? Our new research published today shows how political abuse on X is a global, widespread, and cross-partisan phenomenon. Out now in Nature Communications: www.nature.com/articles/s41... Key results🧵
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Center for Information, Technology, and Public Life @citap.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
Just published: "Fractured Platforms, Unified Narratives" - a deep dive into the 2024 election through the lens of storytelling and identity politics, the migration from X to Bluesky, a CITAP book review on January 6th & more.
citap.substack.com
Fractured Platforms, Unified Narratives
Examining the 2024 election through the lens of storytelling and identity politics, the migration from X to Bluesky, a CITAP book review on January 6th & more.
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Philipp Lorenz-Spreen @lorenzspreen.eurosky.social · 13/11/2024
Out now in PNAS and led by the amazing @msultan.bsky.social with a great team from ARC at MPIB, our systematic meta-analysis of individual factors for misinformation susceptibility: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
Susceptibility to online misinformation: A systematic meta-analysis of demographic and psychological factors | PNAS
Nearly five billion people use and receive news through social media and there is widespread concern about the negative consequences of misinformat...
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