iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

bsky.app/profile/davi... sorry!

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

4 - Large bipartisan majorities back immediate government action on AI even when primed about risk from China

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

2 - 80% of voters think it's either very or somewhat likely that AI will cause widespread job loss in the five to ten years 3- 64% of voters think it's either very or somewhat likely that AI could pose a threat to humanity's survival

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Just to update this chart: 1 - AI salience has increased dramatically in the past week - increasing as much in the last week as the previous year combined

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

The effect sizes among people Who read horoscopes every day are much larger than .01!

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

The LLM calls did not have access to the empirical estimates

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

If this kind of work seems cool to you and you're interested protecting American democracy and trying to make sure AI benefits regular people, check out our job board! t.co/GUAiQaBJRi

t.co

https://blueroseresearch.org/jobs/

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Zodiac effects among people who never read horoscopes are a quite precisely estimated zero, while effects among people who read horoscopes everyday are on the order of 0.2 sds - on par with or larger than most psychometric associations found in social science

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

3) This association of observed astrological effects with astrological "stereotypes" is mediated strongly in auxiliary surveys by how frequently people read horoscopes and generally subscribe to astrology

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

2) These observed personality correlations correspond strongly with LLM-generated "stereotypes" of astrological associations with personality These associations survive permutation testing as well as a variety of smooth seasonal time controls.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

We cross-referenced the psychometric personality data of ~ 1 million people with their zodiac astrological signs: 1) There is a small but statistically significant effect of zodiac sign on personality controlling for demographic and attitudinal variables

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

Depends on your threshold somewhat - Democrats lost ~ the same number of Jewish votes from 20->24 in battleground states as Muslim ones

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

Breaking out non-Hasidic precincts into more buckets changes the story somewhat - Orthodox/Russian-speaking/Haredi precincts fell in both 2020 and 2024, but "Mainstream Jewish" mostly secular neighborhoods did not start dropping until 2024

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

America's Jewish neighborhoods - both Hasidic and non-Hasidic - are trending fast toward Republicans while similar non-Jewish precincts matched on demographics like education and income have trended toward the Democrats

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

To share my own personal experience grappling with this, my mom and dad’s families had very different experiences and perspectives on growing up as poor Moroccans in Israel - both experiences valid, but my mom’s story was told more in writing while my dad’s likely was held by far more people

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

One of the hardest problems in politics is that people who are capable eloquently organize their thoughts and perspectives in writing are really weird and unrepresentative! This is true between groups but also is even more true *within* groups

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

We're hiring Machine Learning Scientists for our election forecasting team! Our election forecasting team works with the largest collection of political data ever assembled and helps allocate billions of dollars in resources - it's a pretty cool job - come work with us! grnh.se/uok4eeeh4us

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Just to emphasize how bad of a hole the Trump Administration is in right now, gas price approval this morning literally plummeted so far we had to fix the Y axis of this chart.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

If being able to do stuff like this sounds fun - consider working for us! job-boards.greenhouse.io/blueroserese...

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

We conducted a bunch of polling on the red-blue button dilemma. Highlights: 1) Blue beats red by a 3:1 margin 2) Red button pushers report being less empathetic and higher frequency of anti-social behavior 3) Red button pushers are more supportive of Luigi Mangione controlling for ideology

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

"they respond only to the text “Artificial Intelligence“ plus whatever it’s paired against" is right - the text in the chart is exactly what they see

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

No, we do conjoint importance to track issue importance over time across a set of ~40 issues - the interpretation of the percentages is "What fraction of people pick issue X when put against another random issue"

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Read all of the new research from Blue Rose Research here + check out the episode when it drops! data.blueroseresearch.org/odd-lots

data.blueroseresearch.org

AI Is Colliding With America’s Affordability Crisis

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

When we tested videos on these themes, AI-specific populism - messages that address the future impact of AI in bold, populist terms - performed at the top compared with every other topic we've tested in moving voters toward Democrats.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Voters want jobs, not checks - "creating good-paying jobs" beats "direct income support" 54-17 as the preferred approach to AI displacement. And voters want a tax specifically on companies that profit from AI to pay for it (over a wealth tax) 49-27.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Even among Trump voters, helping workers who lose jobs to AI beats giving tech companies incentives to keep innovating 50% to 24%. Overall it's 58-20.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

The "everything will be fine" message is dead on arrival with voters. When leaders in government and tech say "AI will not cause widespread job losses" - net trust is -41. When they say "AI will create economic productivity that benefits everyone" - net trust is -20.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Voters are extremely concerned about the impact of AI: 79% are concerned the government doesn't have a plan to protect workers from AI job losses. 77% are concerned about industries being eliminated. 56% are worried about personally losing their job.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

AI is hitting at a time when 61% of Americans say life has gotten less affordable in the last year, only 25% feel confident in their financial future, and only 34% say they have a secure job. Not a great starting place for major disruption to the labor market.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Excited to be on Odd Lots to talk about the politics of AI! AI today is less important than it will ever be. Over the past year, AI rose in issue importance faster than any issue we track — it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care, and abortion.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

Jewish/Muslim segregation in Israel is unlike anything seen anywhere in the US within living memory. Israeli Jews are ~7x more likely to have zero Muslim neighbors than white Americans are to have zero Black neighbors — for Israeli Muslims vs Black Americans, it's ~78x.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

And some pretty striking discrepancies of how Denmark residents view the US vs China and Russia.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Some fun tidbits here to see how much more likely Danish people are to say they think their country is heading in the right direction and that they trust the media, though some similar pessimistic economic outlooks we’re seeing here.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

New poll of Denmark residents (N=1,200; Jan 27–Feb 2). Trump’s Greenland push has basically unified the entire country against him. No huge surprise, but a -94 approval rating amongst Danes is pretty impressive.

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Reposted by David Shor

Alon (they/them) @alonlevy.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

One of the insights of @davidshor.bsky.social is that a party or movement can take an unpopular issue and run with it and make it popular among its own voters, getting from 15% support to 45% support, it just can't get over 50% that way. (This is more or less happening re Venezuela.)

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

Do you support or oppose new AI data centers being built in your local community? 31% support, 44% oppose Would you support or oppose new data centers if they lowered your property taxes by 10%? 59% support 18% oppose

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

We recently tested ~ a dozen public statements from a diverse set of Democratic elected officials on the murder of Renee Good and this was the top testing one

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 28/12/2025

People don’t have a good sense for how much age varies geographically - the red areas are super old

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 28/12/2025

When you ask Americans whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about AI, optimism beats pessimism by ~5 points. The primary fault lines are age, gender, and race - young people, men, and racial minorities are the most optimistic about AI. N=30,900 , fielded 12/1 to 12/10

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 23/12/2025

I’m collecting more data on gender of first child to address this - give me a couple weeks and I’ll update

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

I omitted no kids from both regressions, yeah. But just started collecting some more data so should be able to check soon.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

I just started collecting gender of first child so will be fun to see!

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

Ah, I see what you’re saying. I can ask a bunch of people what the gender of their first child was and report back in a bit.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

Other little known lore is that I made a relational organizing app called VoteWithMe that was used by hundreds of thousands of people! Tons of critics lazily assuming I know nothing about canvassing. www.votecaptain.org/blog/2018/10...

votecaptain.org

VoteWithMe Can Help You Find Your Team — Vote Captain

First up in our series on tech tools for Vote Captains, we talk to the VoteWithMe team! VoteWithMe is an app that helps identify friends and contacts that could use an extra push to vote. Sarah Sull...

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

I'm collecting more data so I can restrict to folks with one kid but this is what I get when I restrict to 1+2 bsky.app/profile/davi...

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

It's just very funny to be lectured on the hyper specific niche that I spent a decade in by people who have only consumed pro-canvassing propaganda that *I personally was involved in helping craft*

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

What I find annoying about the push-back I've gotten on this is that I have personally organized and analyzed multiple million-person-plus canvassing experiments as part of my job.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

Just 1 is noisier ofc but broadly looks similar

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