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Dave Osmond

@davidosmond.bsky.social
2K followers 1.1K following 1.4K posts

Weekly renewable simulation of Australia's NEM Keen on renewables, efficiency, EVs, bikes, the outdoors, running & cycling

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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 1h
So sorry to hear Dylan. Devastating.
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Reposted by Dave Osmond
Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 09/10/2026
FACTCHECK: UK Conservatives double the ‘cost of net-zero’ after spreadsheet blunder The Tory "Right Way" booklet makes an erroneous claim about the cost of cutting emissions, possibly taken from a Jan26 thinktank report, and deffo the most idiotic error I've seen for a while 🧵
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Reposted by Dave Osmond
Asher Wolf @asherwolf.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
10% of all people in Canberra are on a waitlist to see a medical specialist www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10...
abc.net.au
One in 10 Canberrans waiting to see a medical specialist
Canberra Health Services has promised to undertake a review after revealing over 10 per cent of Canberrans are waiting to see a specialist through the public system.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($126/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end) reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...
reneweconomy.com.au
Near 100 pct renewable electricity for Australia’s main grid is achievable and affordable: Year 4 update
Very close to 100% renewable electricity is feasible for Australia’s main grid at reasonable cost using just several hours of storage. Four years of data proves this is so.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Here is the simulation from weeks 264 to 267. It was 100.0% renewable (3/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Last week had: - below average demand (96% of long-term average) - below average wind (86%) - average solar (99%) (2/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100.0% RE Last 267 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Sorry, posted my reply below. bsky.app/profile/davi...
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Unfortunately we need a huge amount of storage to completely eliminate "other", 1-3TWh See figs 14-15 and the accompanying text for more information. reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...
reneweconomy.com.au
Near 100 pct renewable electricity for Australia’s main grid is achievable and affordable: Year 4 update
Very close to 100% renewable electricity is feasible for Australia’s main grid at reasonable cost using just several hours of storage. Four years of data proves this is so.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($126/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end) reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...
reneweconomy.com.au
Near 100 pct renewable electricity for Australia’s main grid is achievable and affordable: Year 4 update
Very close to 100% renewable electricity is feasible for Australia’s main grid at reasonable cost using just several hours of storage. Four years of data proves this is so.
010
Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Here is the simulation from weeks 263 to 266. It was 100.0% renewable (3/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Last week had: - below average demand (96% of long-term average) - average wind (101%) - average solar (101%) (2/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100.0% RE Last 266 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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Reposted by Dave Osmond
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Pricey? “The Lectric XPedition2 costs $1,399 which is admittedly much more expensive than an entry-level non-electric bike.” You can’t get an EV in the US for less than $30k! Also, a decent non-electric bike will set you back at least $2k.
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Reposted by Dave Osmond
Adam Morton @adammorton.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Clear Air column today. These used to be published on a cycle. More recently happening when they happen. Which includes today. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
The Coalition says it wants cheaper power, not ideology. But its evidence-free plan is all ideology | Adam Morton
The reheated plans to scrap renewable schemes, boost fossil fuels and revive nuclear are transparently Trumpian
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($126/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end) reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...
reneweconomy.com.au
Near 100 pct renewable electricity for Australia’s main grid is achievable and affordable: Year 4 update
Very close to 100% renewable electricity is feasible for Australia’s main grid at reasonable cost using just several hours of storage. Four years of data proves this is so.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Here is the simulation from weeks 262 to 265. It was 99.4% renewable (3/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Last week had: - below average demand (97% of long-term average) - average wind (101%) - above average solar (113%) (2/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100.0% RE Last 265 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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Reposted by Dave Osmond
Dylan McConnell @dylanjmcconnell.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Just FYI - there is a cost curve for RE projects ( a fairly basic / uncontroversial point I think!) New loads (...looking at you data centers) necessarily push you along the cost curve. All else being equal, RE used for data centers means more expensive RE for everyone else. Not rocket science.
Wind cost curve  (for wind in different REZ's in the NEM, FY30), based on ISP input assumptions. 

Starts from just below $80/MWh on the left  to  more than $120/MWh on the right.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Great article describing the cost of Australia's reliance on oil imports and how it's been impacted by Trump's war in Iran. Oil Import cost in Mar-Aug has increased from $26b in 2025 to $43b in 2026. About $10b of that $17b increase was due to diesel. theenergy.co/articles/the...
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Reposted by Dave Osmond
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 14/09/2026
You can easy browse through the data, run different analyses on it, and download the underlying datasets. Here is the change in electricity prices by change in coal use by state, for example: usenergydata.org/charts/elec-...
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Thanks Jason, I have a couple of young kids at home at the moment so I'm not travelling much at the moment. Perhaps in a few years once they're both at school I'll start getting out more again.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Thanks. Yes, peak 'Other' is just over 10 GW, or about 1/4 of peak demand of 40 GW. Average Capacity Factor of 'Other' is 3.5%, which is not that different to how we currently use our fossil peakers.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($126/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end) reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...
reneweconomy.com.au
Near 100 pct renewable electricity for Australia’s main grid is achievable and affordable: Year 4 update
Very close to 100% renewable electricity is feasible for Australia’s main grid at reasonable cost using just several hours of storage. Four years of data proves this is so.
020
Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Here is the simulation from weeks 261 to 264. It was 99.3% renewable (3/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Last week had: - below average demand (97% of long-term average) - average wind (101%) - average solar (102%) (2/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100% RE Last 264 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Thanks. Yes anything above the dotted line is curtailed. When storage is not charging, the dotted line is on top of the demand line, though it's a bit hard to see.
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Reposted by Dave Osmond
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
I resigned from ExxonMobil today. I spent the last three years doing fossil fuel extraction research at both BP and ExxonMobil. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing to maximize extraction while the window to act closes, and gambling with our lives. More below.
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Reposted by Dave Osmond
Peter Hannam @peterhannam1.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Hold the front page! ‘EV passes the pub test’…
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Hi, full costings including generation, storage, transmission upgrades, curtailment and system security additions in this article. bsky.app/profile/davi...
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Thanks for the kind words. You might be interested in the section below Fig 19 where I discuss a simulation with more solar & less wind. The cheaper cost of solar is offset by the need for more batteries. Below ~40% wind also needs more over-generation. reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...
reneweconomy.com.au
Near 100 pct renewable electricity for Australia’s main grid is achievable and affordable: Year 4 update
Very close to 100% renewable electricity is feasible for Australia’s main grid at reasonable cost using just several hours of storage. Four years of data proves this is so.
030
Reposted by Dave Osmond
Glen @gergyl.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Assuming we get a zero at Spencers Creek next week (or soon after), can now compare this season with earlier low-snow seasons via the best measure, 'integral depth'. On that basis 2026 will close as easily the worst Australian snow season ever, at just 48 metre.days; next lowest 1982 at 64 m.days.
Bar graph of season integral snow depth at Spencers Creek near Charlotte Pass since 1954 in metre.days, with a linear trend line. Season 2026, projected to total just 48 metre.days, will be easily the lowest ever.
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Reposted by Dave Osmond
LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Few countries look THIS steep. Expected ICE 80% → 20%: 2 years 8 months. Indonesia is currently the fastest transitioning country I know of (closely follow led by Uruguay, Brazil, Colombia, Nepal and Singapore)
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Yung En Chee @yungenchee.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Is property damage or property value threat the thing that will finally concentrate the minds of wealthy i'll-be-right folks on Australia's unfettered fossil fuel extraction, production & combustion❓️ A wake-up call for property-rich MPs of the ruling parties❓️
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Reposted by Dave Osmond
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
New Climate Council report just out on the cost of sea level rise to Australia this century, based on a paper published in Nature today by Tom Kompass. TL:DR Conservatively, at least $855b by 2100 Report: www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/ri... Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
climatecouncil.org.au
Rising Seas, Rising Bills: How sea level rise will cost every Australian
This report finds sea level rise will conservatively cost Australia $855 billion this century, and become a constant drag on our economy.
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Reposted by Dave Osmond
LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
China is setting most of the global car demand. And that demand is more and more become BEV demand. PHEV will only be a thing for a bit longer, maybe 2-3 years and we'll have seen peak demand for them.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Yes, the storage should reach its target 10+ yrs before the wind & PV. It's clear we're tracking towards more solar & less wind than my simulation. At some point I'll do a complete rerun. As shown in Fig 19, we'll likely need 200+GWh of storage with a PV bias. reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...
reneweconomy.com.au
Near 100 pct renewable electricity for Australia’s main grid is achievable and affordable: Year 4 update
Very close to 100% renewable electricity is feasible for Australia’s main grid at reasonable cost using just several hours of storage. Four years of data proves this is so.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
See also: bsky.app/profile/davi...
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I've just added a storage scale factor line to the chart. Note that it's only approximate. By my calculations, we currently have ~55 GWh of NEM storage from: -pumped hydro: ~15 GWh -utility BESS: ~23 GWh -residential batteries: ~17 GWh Thus need ~2.1x current storage to get to assumed 120 GWh.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($126/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end) reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...
reneweconomy.com.au
Near 100 pct renewable electricity for Australia’s main grid is achievable and affordable: Year 4 update
Very close to 100% renewable electricity is feasible for Australia’s main grid at reasonable cost using just several hours of storage. Four years of data proves this is so.
170
Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Here is the simulation from weeks 260 to 263. It was 98.8% renewable (3/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Last week had: - below average demand (97% of long-term average) - above average wind (114%) - average solar (98%) (2/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100.0% RE Last 263 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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