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Dave Osmond

@davidosmond.bsky.social
2K followers 1.1K following 1.4K posts

Weekly renewable simulation of Australia's NEM Keen on renewables, efficiency, EVs, bikes, the outdoors, running & cycling

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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100.0% RE Last 266 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Pricey? “The Lectric XPedition2 costs $1,399 which is admittedly much more expensive than an entry-level non-electric bike.” You can’t get an EV in the US for less than $30k! Also, a decent non-electric bike will set you back at least $2k.
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Adam Morton @adammorton.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Clear Air column today. These used to be published on a cycle. More recently happening when they happen. Which includes today. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
The Coalition says it wants cheaper power, not ideology. But its evidence-free plan is all ideology | Adam Morton
The reheated plans to scrap renewable schemes, boost fossil fuels and revive nuclear are transparently Trumpian
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100.0% RE Last 265 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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Dylan McConnell @dylanjmcconnell.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Just FYI - there is a cost curve for RE projects ( a fairly basic / uncontroversial point I think!) New loads (...looking at you data centers) necessarily push you along the cost curve. All else being equal, RE used for data centers means more expensive RE for everyone else. Not rocket science.
Wind cost curve  (for wind in different REZ's in the NEM, FY30), based on ISP input assumptions. 

Starts from just below $80/MWh on the left  to  more than $120/MWh on the right.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Great article describing the cost of Australia's reliance on oil imports and how it's been impacted by Trump's war in Iran. Oil Import cost in Mar-Aug has increased from $26b in 2025 to $43b in 2026. About $10b of that $17b increase was due to diesel. theenergy.co/articles/the...
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 14/09/2026
You can easy browse through the data, run different analyses on it, and download the underlying datasets. Here is the change in electricity prices by change in coal use by state, for example: usenergydata.org/charts/elec-...
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100% RE Last 264 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
I resigned from ExxonMobil today. I spent the last three years doing fossil fuel extraction research at both BP and ExxonMobil. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing to maximize extraction while the window to act closes, and gambling with our lives. More below.
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Peter Hannam @peterhannam1.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Hold the front page! ‘EV passes the pub test’…
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Glen @gergyl.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Assuming we get a zero at Spencers Creek next week (or soon after), can now compare this season with earlier low-snow seasons via the best measure, 'integral depth'. On that basis 2026 will close as easily the worst Australian snow season ever, at just 48 metre.days; next lowest 1982 at 64 m.days.
Bar graph of season integral snow depth at Spencers Creek near Charlotte Pass since 1954 in metre.days, with a linear trend line. Season 2026, projected to total just 48 metre.days, will be easily the lowest ever.
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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Few countries look THIS steep. Expected ICE 80% → 20%: 2 years 8 months. Indonesia is currently the fastest transitioning country I know of (closely follow led by Uruguay, Brazil, Colombia, Nepal and Singapore)
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Yung En Chee @yungenchee.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Is property damage or property value threat the thing that will finally concentrate the minds of wealthy i'll-be-right folks on Australia's unfettered fossil fuel extraction, production & combustion❓️ A wake-up call for property-rich MPs of the ruling parties❓️
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Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
New Climate Council report just out on the cost of sea level rise to Australia this century, based on a paper published in Nature today by Tom Kompass. TL:DR Conservatively, at least $855b by 2100 Report: www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/ri... Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
climatecouncil.org.au
Rising Seas, Rising Bills: How sea level rise will cost every Australian
This report finds sea level rise will conservatively cost Australia $855 billion this century, and become a constant drag on our economy.
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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
China is setting most of the global car demand. And that demand is more and more become BEV demand. PHEV will only be a thing for a bit longer, maybe 2-3 years and we'll have seen peak demand for them.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I've just added a storage scale factor line to the chart. Note that it's only approximate. By my calculations, we currently have ~55 GWh of NEM storage from: -pumped hydro: ~15 GWh -utility BESS: ~23 GWh -residential batteries: ~17 GWh Thus need ~2.1x current storage to get to assumed 120 GWh.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100.0% RE Last 263 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Australia set another BEV share record in August 2026. Ever since early 2026 they seem to have set eyes on settling on a new and much faster trajectory. If this speedup goes on, Australia could be done transitioning before the end of the decade. S-curve is playing catch-up right now.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 97.6% RE Last 262 weeks: 98.4% RE (1/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Wind, solar & batteries are much more than fuel savers on Austalia's main electricity grid. Sep update: In the last 12 months, peak total NEM demand was ~40 GW, but the contribution from wind, solar & utility batteries means that peak residual demand was ~30% lower at 27 GW. /1
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Australia Electricity Emissions August Update: Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 517 kg CO2-e/MWh. Down 24% since 2020, down 38% since 2015 Sth Australia reductions leading the way thanks to its increase in wind & PV generation. Down 27% since 2020, 67% since 2015
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Renew Economy @reneweconomy.com.au · 31/08/2026
A huge Queensland wind and battery project has achieved the rare feat of financial close for both a CIS winner and for a hybrid renewables project under the state LNP’s strict new planning regime ow.ly/QcMK50ZH4Ta
ow.ly
Fresh hope as huge hybrid wind and battery project reaches financial close in the Sunshine State
A huge Queensland wind and battery project has achieved the rare feat of financial close for both a CIS winner and for a hybrid renewables project under the state LNP's strict new planning regime.
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Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
On Saturday Hotham reached 11.1°C. The forecast for tomorrow is 11°C. The (now previous) record hottest August maximum temperature recorded at Hotham was 10.7°C on 29 August 2006. And the August average maximum is +0.7°C (zero point seven)
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 28/08/2026
It is premature to attribute the Nepal disaster to climate change: we cannot yet say how much warming temperatures and melting glaciers contributed to this specific event. But risks of glacier collapse in a warming Himalaya are clearly growing. My latest at The Climate Brink:
theclimatebrink.com
What we can and cannot say about climate change and the Nepal disaster
Formal attribution is premature, but the collapse happened on a rapidly warming mountain in a valley losing its ice
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Now up to 5 years of weekly simulations! The traditionally difficult May-Aug period of 2026 has been the 2nd most challenging so far. Average supply from 'Other' during May-Aug in 2026 was 1213 MW, compared to the 5-yr average of 1043 MW and the record 1648 MW in 2024.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 99.7% RE Last 261 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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Glen @gergyl.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Please please please don't feed the birds. Just stop. It isn't just H5. Bird feeding has widespread adverse impacts, notably in messing up local species composition -- way way too many cockatoos, lorikeets, kookaburras, butcherbirds, magpies, noisy miners... birdlife.org.au/news/h5-bird...
Birdlife Australia, 'H5 bird flu: 5 things you can do'

"3. Don’t feed birds 

"Feeding wild birds can do more harm than good for our feathered friends.  

"Although an outbreak is unlikely to occur in our backyards, avoiding feeding wild birds is the best way to help slow and prevent the spread of H5 bird flu and other diseases in your local bird population. The virus is extremely contagious and can spread rapidly at feeding, roosting, nesting and watering sites – wherever birds flock together – and bird feeders and feeding stations are easily contaminated.  

"Instead, help your backyard birds by providing them with long-term feeding and breeding habitat. Planting a bird-friendly garden gives your local native birds the natural food, shelter and nesting resources they need now and into the future, while encouraging birds to find their own food (instead of congregating in large numbers at a single food source)."
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 98.1% RE Last 260 weeks: 98.4% RE (1/5)
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Peter Hannam @peterhannam1.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
My first piece for @reneweconomy.com.au … Based on a trip up to New England last week: reneweconomy.com.au/its-literall...
reneweconomy.com.au
“It’s literally life-changing for us:" The drought-stricken farmers looking to wind and solar to secure their future
New England farmers say their future, and their success plans, depend on their ability to host wind, solar and even transmission, and are angry about efforts to stop them.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
As you've already seen, Coopers Gap has a very flat monthly profile while up north Mt Emerald & Kaban tend to have low output in summer. I wouldn't worry too much about low output during peak summer demand, solar is pretty good at making up for lack of wind, though obviously also requires batteries.
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Dylan McConnell @dylanjmcconnell.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
.. in other news, water is wet: www.aap.com.au/factcheck/li...
aap.com.au
Liberal Party graphic misleads on power prices under Labor
A Liberal Party graphic on household electricity bills has used cherry-picked figures to give an inflated picture of power prices under the Albanese government.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Paul is a giant of the Australian energy industry. But I'd like to correct one thing. He said that wind drops off in winter: Jun-Aug. That's not correct. July & Aug are typically our windiest months. But he was right that Dunkelflaute events are mostly in winter, though May is often worse than Aug.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 94.3% RE Last 259 weeks: 98.4% RE (1/5)
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Dylan McConnell @dylanjmcconnell.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Colleagues at UNSW are conducting research on the Australian energy industry’s capacity to deliver First Nations outcomes. If you work in RE project development, community engagement, construction, finance, etc would love you to participate in this survey! unsw.au1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Major readjustment of the transition curve towards BEV happening in Australia right now. Seems like within 2 years ICE will fall below 50% while BEV is switching to an insane pace in getting the market share up there.
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Glen @gergyl.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Little word about the numbers, and why they vary from source to source. The standard ENSO indicator globally, 'Niño3.4' is a one-box sea surface temperature anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific. There are others, but '3.4' is the adopted focus.
BOM map of the sea surface temperature boxes used for several Pacific and Indian Ocean variation indicators. Niño3.4 is a single averaging box in the central equatorial Pacific.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 94.2% RE Last 258 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Australia has huge potential for medium-sized solar installations on businesses, factories & farms. This is really important policy. But I hope it is paired with some sort of incentive to pair the solar with batteries... www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08...
abc.net.au
Solar costs for business to be slashed under energy scheme expansion
The federal government is set to announce changes to the Small-scale Renewable Energy scheme in a bid to help businesses install solar systems and close the gap with residential take-up.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Wind, Solar & Batteries are much more than fuel savers on Austalia's main electricity grid. Peak total NEM demand is ~40 GW, but the contribution from wind, solar & batteries means that peak residual demand in the last 12 months is almost 30% lower at 28 GW. /1
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Fascinating article: Will the electrification of massive mining haul trucks follow the path of EVs, namely Chinese brands quickly overtaking & dominating the slower moving traditional non-Chinese suppliers?
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Australia Electricity Emissions Update: Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 518 kg CO2-e/MWh. Down 24% since 2020, down 38% since 2015 Sth Australia reductions leading the way thanks to its increase in wind & PV generation. Down 29% since 2020, 68% since 2015
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 98.0% RE Last 257 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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Renew Economy @reneweconomy.com.au · 23/07/2026
Mine backed by net zero opponent Gina Rinehart achieved 90 per cent renewable share in latest quarter, far greater than expected reneweconomy.com.au/rinehart-back-m…
reneweconomy.com.au
Rinehart-backed miner achieves 90 pct renewables in June quarter, may take processing plant off grid
Mine backed by net zero opponent Gina Rinehart achieved 90 per cent renewable share in latest quarter, far greater than expected.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 92.4% RE Last 256 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 92.3% RE Last 255 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
June was a BEV share record again in China. Third in a row! Pure ICE are doomed to fall to below 10% in the next 3 or so years.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
The transition to EVs really speeding up in Australia. Look at the ICE share of new car registrations plummet!
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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
All time best BEV share month in June in Australia, and the 5th one in a row! I hope they can somehow figure out how to keep this acceleration going down under.
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Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 97.4% RE Last 254 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 05/07/2026
Our heatwaves will get hotter and hotter and hotter until we get to global net zero greenhouse gas emissions and so stabilise the climate. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Peak temperatures during June heatwaves of 1976 and 2026Night temperatures during June heatwaves of 1976 and 2026
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