iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by David Raikow

BARTENDER: another round JIMMY OLSEN: no we’re done thanks BARTENDER: *removes glasses from bar* LOIS LANE: omg it’s superbar

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 12h

I actually know several people in happy open marriages. Viewed from the outside, though, they are clearly a) a lot of work to maintain, and b) really not for everyone.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 13h

I’m still trying to get NatC accepted as the consensus term.

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Reposted by David Raikow

Elizabeth Anne, PhD @lacksauthority.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

never the wrong time for this classic

Screenshot of a tweet by @RobbtKraft reading “scientist: "does everyone here know what Watson and Crick discovered?"
me from back of room: "Rosalind Franklin's notes"”

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 05/10/2026

Which is not to say that Iranian nuclear weapons wouldn’t be a huge problem. But North Korea’s existing nuclear program is far scarier than a hypothetical future Iranian one.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 05/10/2026

Here’s the thing about Iranian nuclear ambitions: Iranian leadership is many things, but they’re not stupid and they’re not suicidal. They know full well if they ever used a nuclear weapon that Iran would cease to exist. They want a deterrent, not a first-strike offensive weapon.

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Reposted by David Raikow

Erika Hall @erikahall.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

This is all true. I've been online continuously more or less since before there were pictures. We were very excited to type at each other. When my credit union introduced online banking, I had to telnet into it. That was great. Perfect. The command line didn't try to make small talk or suck up.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 04/10/2026

“Ladies and gentlemen… The Assless Chaps!”

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 03/10/2026

A PSA for all DMV residents: Today I was able to confirm that there is, in fact, a genuine Xi’an Famous Foods in Arlington. It’s a bit of a schlep from DC, but it is Metro-accessible. Feel free to adjust your noodle plans accordingly.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 02/10/2026

Always marinate the stump: proper burrito technique.

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Reposted by David Raikow

Tim Carmody @tcarmody.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

This is the funniest thing I've seen today, possibly ever

A tweet by SarahStarberry that says "oh god read the vertical axis" on top of a chart measuring AI models' release dates and model numbers rather than any real capabilities

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Reposted by David Raikow

ACARS Drama @acarsdrama.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Air to Ground Message: YOURE MY HERO AND THAT SAYS ALOT BECAUSE I THINK ABOUT BATMAN ALOT Area: Philadelphia, PA, USA Type: Embraer 175 (Enhanced Wing) A: #a03819c28d9 F: #fb405327446

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 02/10/2026

Fair point, though given the image quality it’s hard to tell for sure.

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Reposted by David Raikow

Ryan CrawCour @ryan.crawcour.social · 01/10/2026

BREAKING NEWS: Tensions between Thor and the Care Bears have escalated rapidly overnight.

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Reposted by David Raikow

Mary Gillis @marygillis.bsky.social · 24/10/2025

Summer is dead. Winter struggles to be born. Now is the time of soup.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 02/10/2026

Never underestimate the power of Mediocre White Guy Syndrome.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

I’m no primatologist, but I think this is probably unfair to gorillas.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

The ripple effect here is also key. Ideally, you’d want to draw heavily on experienced FSOs for senior leadership positions. But if you don’t train and enable them, you don’t get enough qualified candidates. If you don’t listen to them, no one ever considers them for leadership.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

State has declined as a whole, most definitely. But the part that’s done the most damage has been in the foreign service, particularly at the working level. (Note that I’m definitely biased, being a field guy. Not US foreign service, but still.)

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

I can’t overstate how much of this traces back to the collapse of the foreign service. You need people living on the ground for extended periods. They need resources, training, and authority. You need to listen to them. The DC blob pretty much only sees DC, and doesn’t listen to anyone but itself.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

Another factor to keep in mind: I’ve been assured by people who know better than I that there’s essentially zero chance the PLA could capture any of Taiwan’s chip foundries intact and operational. Destroying those foundries would devastate the Chinese economy (along with everyone else’s).

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

Every single domestic political incentive pushes Xi to talk about annexing Taiwan. Everything he’s actually done suggests that he’ll refuse to be the leader who “lost” Taiwan, but that he knows reunification isn’t on the table. Messaging is not a reliable indicator of intent.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

Also worth noting that the PLA currently has zero active units or officers that have ever seen combat. None. And Xi has gutted much of the senior officer corps. Plus, I’ve never been in the military, but it’s my understanding that invading an island is really, really hard.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

Entirely fair. In this specific case, Xi has historically been quite cautious internationally. He also isn’t doing anything to prepare the PLA for an invasion anytime in the foreseeable future. But it’s never wise to assume decision-makers will be rational.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

I’d argue that it’s a fundamental diplomatic failure, driven in large part by the steep erosion of the US foreign service and the decline of State relative to DoD.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

I think it’s more that his good options are limited. Invasion, even if “successful”, would be disastrous for China. The Hong Kong fiasco essentially ended any chance (if there was any) that the current generation would voluntarily reunify. Intimidation and economic coercion, on the other hand…

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

I genuinely don’t think the possibility of US intervention is what’s holding Xi back. I also don’t think even the KMT is about to let PLA units into Taipei in the face of 92% public opposition. More gradual policy shifts maybe, but anything that sudden would invite chaos.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

Xi says a lot of things. Even if an invasion was “successful”, it would be catastrophic for China, and judging by his actions, Xi is well aware of that. He’s certainly not preparing the PLA to invade anytime in the forseeable future.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

There’s definitely a lot of room for difficult non-military dynamics there. Worth noting, though, that in the latest Taiwanese national polling, opposition to *ever* reunifying was over 92%. That’s an awfully big number.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

If there is a soon-to-be active war in east Asia, I suspect it’s considerably more likely to be in the South China Sea than the Taiwan Strait. bsky.app/profile/davi...

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Reposted by David Raikow

Guilherme Nunes @guilhernunes.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

capybaras taking a bath in a fountain

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 01/10/2026

This doesn’t exonerate McGurk in any way, but a lot of that sort of thing goes on in a lot of different embassies (not just the US ones), on the roof and elsewhere. “What happens on mission, stays on mission” is an actual saying.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 30/09/2026

No, Xi isn’t sitting on the edge of his seat, waiting for the US to let down its guard so that he can give the invade order.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 30/09/2026

2 points that keep coming up in feedback: 1) Lots of people dramatically overestimate China’s eagerness to invade Taiwan. It’s very unlikely to happen anytime in the forseeable future, except for: 2) China *will* invade if Taipei declares independence. At least some people underestimate this.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 30/09/2026

Never more words than needed.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 30/09/2026

Just to add: A great many billionaires were idiots even before they were kicked in the head. Wealth is overwhelmingly a function of luck, and idiots are as likely to be lucky as anyone else. Pretty much every human culture ever has devoted enormous resources to denying that, but it remains true.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 30/09/2026

I vaguely remember listening to a podcast or two about them at some point, but that doesn’t seem like it would be helpful, sadly. Are you looking for *accurate* information? Or can it just be made up? 😂

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 30/09/2026

Classes about it as a cultural phenomenon? Or how-to classes? (I’ve taken neither, but I’m very curious…)

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 30/09/2026

In transitional justice parlance this is referred to as “lustration”, and is a pretty common tool. It can be very useful if done carefully, but can also cause serious problems if not. bsky.app/profile/amrk...

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 30/09/2026

Bird, I think. It’s hard to say for sure, but it looks like it has round pupils, which would rule out a goat.

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David Raikow @david.raikow.online · 30/09/2026

What kind of help/support does the Cornell victim need right now? (Honest question. I genuinely don’t know.) Entirely possible they “doxxed” someone other than the victim; what kind of help/support does that person need, if so?

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